Lake Travis 2024: Countdown To Zero

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

I think we had one of these threads on TOS and it’s time to fire it up again. Travis is currently at 631 feet, which is 38.1% full. One year ago on this day we were a little over 45% full, so we are in moderately worse shape.

It’s stayed pretty flat over the last month, but now come the months with a chance to make a dent in the drought. We’ve seen it get low before, but there are significantly more people drawing from Travis than in years past. It got down to 618 in 2013. 

Buchanan is at 46.2% full FWIW.

[EvilCaseMcCoy 691]

My dad lives on Travis.  He has no lake.  Said he's waiting for it to come back before he sells.  Thinking he's not moving for a minute. 

[TKthunder2 4985]

I’ve never understood why they don’t try to dig up sometimes island and increase the capacity of the lake. When we get those once a decade type rainfall seasons which fills the lake past 100% and they just open the flood gates all the way it just seems so wasteful, when we know within 5 years we’ll be back to worrying about the water supply.

It seems like that is a relatively easy an obvious way to increase capacity especially while the lake is low, so I’m assuming their must be some other reason why it hasn’t been done.

[ImissWallyPryor 9046]

9 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

I’ve never understood why they don’t try to dig up sometimes island and increase the capacity of the lake. When we get those once a decade type rainfall seasons which fills the lake past 100% and they just open the flood gates all the way it just seems so wasteful, when we know within 5 years we’ll be back to worrying about the water supply.

It seems like that is a relatively easy an obvious way to increase capacity especially while the lake is low, so I’m assuming their must be some other reason why it hasn’t been done.

Something like this needs a task force. 

[tx 3 putt 76862]

Corpus and the surrounding area entered stage 2 drought today

it’s going to be a rough summer

[jimmyjazz 45877]

15 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

I’ve never understood why they don’t try to dig up sometimes island and increase the capacity of the lake. When we get those once a decade type rainfall seasons which fills the lake past 100% and they just open the flood gates all the way it just seems so wasteful, when we know within 5 years we’ll be back to worrying about the water supply.

It seems like that is a relatively easy an obvious way to increase capacity especially while the lake is low, so I’m assuming their must be some other reason why it hasn’t been done.

Maybe because it would increase capacity by, oh I don't know, a fraction of a percent?

#notsureifkidding

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

The reason they don’t leave it at or over 100% full is because the risk of flooding. Usually the ground is saturated so it would take much to generate a lot of runoff into the lake.

I do think they have brought it down a little too far in the past though. For most of Austin’s history, floods have been a bigger threat than drought, but it’s time to recalibrate.

[1978horn 892]

LCRA is going to stage 3 officially on May 1st.   There are rumors that they are talking about going to stage 4 in late summer/early fall based on projections.  They are also reworking the drought contingency plan and all the stages. People need to stop irrigating and worry about drinking water.  

 

Lots more people consuming water than in previous droughts.  If we don't get rain soon and lots of it west of us it could get bad.

[GreenspointTexas 9598]

People shouldnt live in naturally water scarce/dry areas

 

 

News at 10

[crash_davis 23096]

25 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

People shouldnt live in naturally water scarce/dry areas

 

 

News at 10

Climate has drastically changed in the last 30 years which is fucking up everything, news at 10.

Edited March 14 by crash_davis

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

1 hour ago, 1978horn said:

Lots more people consuming water than in previous droughts.  If we don't get rain soon and lots of it west of us it could get bad.

It rained about four days in January. How much more you going to ask for?  [/sarcasm]

[troph 24781]

8 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Climate has drastically changed in the last 30 years which is fucking up everything, news at 10.

We are all turbo fucked. News at 11.

[TKthunder2 4985]

11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Maybe because it would increase capacity by, oh I don't know, a fraction of a percent?

#notsureifkidding

Not kidding. Have you seen the water reclamation projects that have been proposed, including desalinization and force pumping into old aquifers? The money proposed on those efforts also only equals a fraction of a percent of Lake Travis.

It seems like they could deepen/widen the existing reservoir and be cheaper than many of these other water projects to capture more natural run off…and it also would help out those that use the lake for recreational purposes at the same time. I’ve fucked up a few props out there on a rock that came out of nowhere.

Something like this would have multiple public benefits.

[atomheartbevo 89618]

Didn’t realize it was at 39% capacity 

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

 

[Deej 76750]

LCRA needs to stop allowing all the new straws into the lakes. My mom lives on Inks. People in her subdivision who don't live on the water and aren't supposed to have straws in the lake all do, and water their yards twice a day with water from the lake and fill water tanks with it. Constantly reporting them to the LCRA and they won't do anything about it. 

[Orange&White 5521]

Few things:

1. There may be more people with straws in the water now, but 4-5 years ago the LCRA dramatically changed the thresh holds that need to be met to supply water downstream to rice farmers and environmental concerns in the estuaries.

2. The Arbuckle Reservoir in Lane City in Wharton will eventually come online this year after years of delays. It will hold 90k acre feet, which is about 75% of what Austin uses in a year. Obviously it is downstream and cannot be used to provide water for use in Austin, but the idea is that you can use it for the downstream needs and send less out of Buch/Travis to do it. And it collects all of that water that falls south of lake Travis that currently just flows to the Gulf with no benefit.

3. "Droughts end in floods". I've lived on or near Lake Travis since 1983 and there is definitely a cycle. The lake can be completely filled in three days if the right storm hits at the right place. Think Memorial Day weekend.

Edited March 14 by Orange&White

[Newdoc 3439]

2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

People shouldnt live in naturally water scarce/dry areas

 

 

News at 10

Well, at least a few million of them. 

[GreenspointTexas 9598]

I live in Houston and its the same shit there. Maybe dont build a fucking city on a bayou near the coast

 

 

Also, why dont more people live in Tyler? Its a pretty badass city

[Brisketexan 105043]

13 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I’ve never understood why they don’t try to dig up sometimes island and increase the capacity of the lake. When we get those once a decade type rainfall seasons which fills the lake past 100% and they just open the flood gates all the way it just seems so wasteful, when we know within 5 years we’ll be back to worrying about the water supply.

It seems like that is a relatively easy an obvious way to increase capacity especially while the lake is low, so I’m assuming their must be some other reason why it hasn’t been done.

 

13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Maybe because it would increase capacity by, oh I don't know, a fraction of a percent?

#notsureifkidding

Cost, and what you'd get from it.  It costs a shitload of money to move acre-feet of dirt away, with a minimal payoff in terms of percentage.

But on the bright side, many of our future water supply projects are going to be costly as hell (all the relatively cheap ones have been done by now....except reuse/reclamation projects, those look to be the last low-hanging fruit, and they're happening all over), so hell, the ROI on adding capacity to an existing reservoir may be there.  Check the state water plan, I'm sure it's been calculated and discussed somewhere.

Edited March 14 by Brisketexan

[Texas Jeff 1942]

Dome the lake. Could get a little sweaty in there…

[Felix 607]

The Sometimes islands are just the highest points on a big ass stone ridge that was the right bank of the river before it was dammed.  It might make that area of the lake more navigable but to clear any significant amount of material would involve blasting a shit ton of rock once you got down a little ways. You should look at the topographical map of the lake and you'll see what I mean.

[Orange&White 5521]

36 minutes ago, Felix said:

The Sometimes islands are just the highest points on a big ass stone ridge that was the right bank of the river before it was dammed.  It might make that area of the lake more navigable but to clear any significant amount of material would involve blasting a shit ton of rock once you got down a little ways. You should look at the topographical map of the lake and you'll see what I mean.

Exactly.

This gives you a better idea of what "Sometimes Island" really is. And for perspective, that cliff on the left side of that ridge is the deepest point in the lake at about 185' when the lake was full.

[crash_davis 23096]

I keep telling my wife, who is reluctant to sell and move/retire soon, that we need to sell ASAP before the lakes run dry and no one wants to move here and everyone's trying to leave.

[boilerhorn 1371]

1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Also, why dont more people live in Tyler? Its a pretty badass city

For myriad reasons, a buddy of mine moved from Austin to Tyler in 2023.  I think he waters his lawn daily and has a monthly water bill of around $0.63.  Of course I exaggerate, but the water is cheap and plentiful there.  Also has a fairly strong healthcare infrastructure.

[GreenspointTexas 9598]

6 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

For myriad reasons, a buddy of mine moved from Austin to Tyler in 2023.  I think he waters his lawn daily and has a monthly water bill of around $0.63.  Of course I exaggerate, but the water is cheap and plentiful there.  Also has a fairly strong healthcare infrastructure.

Its cheap, pretty, low crime, no traffic, and just needs a bigger airport

[HouTex 1866]

A friend who lives on the lake tells me that part of the problem is that LCRA generates a lot power from the dam.  So that’s where some of the water goes.  I looked briefly for some historical discharge data and I only found this screenshot:

 

[crash_davis 23096]

Just now, HouTex said:

A friend who lives on the lake tells me that part of the problem is that LCRA generates a lot power from the dam.  So that’s where some of the water goes.  I looked briefly for some historical discharge data and I only found this screenshot:

 

During/after the 2011 drought, I remember a lawsuit against LCRA for power generation and sale, something along the lines that it was not in LCRAs rights/charter. Not sure whatever happened to the lawsuit.

[boilerhorn 1371]

39 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Its cheap, pretty, low crime, no traffic, and just needs a bigger airport

Part of his calculus was "reasonable driving distance to an international airport."  For business trips, he says it presently is faster/cheaper to hire a driver to take him from Tyler to DFW than to fly from Tyler to DFW.

He and his wife love it.  His kid is excelling in school there, too.

[TKthunder2 4985]

6 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Exactly.

This gives you a better idea of what "Sometimes Island" really is. And for perspective, that cliff on the left side of that ridge is the deepest point in the lake at about 185' when the lake was full.

We got quarries all over. Digging up/blasting rock ain’t easy but it’s not impossible either. It makes the lake more usable and increase water storage is a win win.

[Brisketexan 105043]

7 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

We got quarries all over. Digging up/blasting rock ain’t easy but it’s not impossible either. It makes the lake more usable and increase water storage is a win win.

It's all about cost.

It's kind of like the cry "why don't they bury all the power lines!?!?"  All it takes is money.  Lots, and lots, and lots of money.  Whether they are private utilities in an unregulated market, state-owned utilities, or regulated utilities.....if they spend 20 kabillion dollars burying lines, they're gonna recover 20 kabillion dollars in their rates.  If the ratepayers are okay with that, and think the tradeoff is worth it, then let's go ahead and spend the money.

But being how water users have cried rather loudly about 1) their rates going up even though 2) they are often using LESS water than before.....because they don't grasp that you're not paying for the water itself, you're paying for the cost to capture it, hold it, treat it, and deliver it (lakes, treatment plants, pipes, etc., which get more expensive every day)...good luck with that.

Lots of people want all their utilities, guaranteed 100% of the time.  Oh, and also, they should be so cheap as to be almost free.

Contrast that with the system we've set up, where water suppliers are incentivized to spend little/nothing on the essentials (politically, because they are often governed by people elected by the ratepayers) to spend ZERO dollars on infrastructure, maintenance, and improvements ("vote for me!  I kept your water rates low! [Nevermind that when the bill comes due for all that deferred maintenance, it'll be hellacious, but who cares, I won't be in office anymore!"], or the electric system we've set up, where the incentive for most utilities (excepting a handful of municipal utilities) is to spend as little as possible to pad profits.

You'll get the infrastructure you keep voting for.

[DaggerHorns 3082]

7 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Exactly.

This gives you a better idea of what "Sometimes Island" really is. And for perspective, that cliff on the left side of that ridge is the deepest point in the lake at about 185' when the lake was full.

Quality post. And Jesus, I guess the bridge ended up being way the fuck up there.

Edited March 15 by DaggerHorns
Lots of shit

[Chet Steadman 940]

8 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Exactly.

This gives you a better idea of what "Sometimes Island" really is. And for perspective, that cliff on the left side of that ridge is the deepest point in the lake at about 185' when the lake was full.

Nice.  This and one other taken a month or two later during construction are my fave Travis pics.  

The deepest part of the lake is actually just west of Starnes Island.  Well over 230’ when the lake is full.  

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

Are there any places to get water data to compare normal usage to things like SXSW week. The hordes aren’t watering lawns but that’s a shitload of extra showers and toilet flushes. I’m sure it doesn’t have any measurable impact but I find it interesting.

[gmr548 16575]

On 3/14/2024 at 2:30 PM, HouTex said:

A friend who lives on the lake tells me that part of the problem is that LCRA generates a lot power from the dam.  So that’s where some of the water goes.  I looked briefly for some historical discharge data and I only found this screenshot:

 

Your friends take is interesting. Haven't heard someone say "We're generating too much electricity in Texas!"

[HouTex 1866]

Just now, gmr548 said:

Your friends take is interesting. Haven't heard someone say "We're generating too much electricity in Texas!"

 

Well, they are on the lake and they want to be able to launch their boat.  Selfish assholes.

[Steel Shank 9421]

If we could find a way to reduce the size of water molecules, we could fit more water in the lakes. Problem solved.

[Kennythetiger 9374]

5 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

If we could find a way to reduce the size of water molecules, we could fit more water in the lakes. Problem solved.

Or drink more beer and save the water. 

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

45 minutes ago, Kennythetiger said:

Or drink more beer and save the water. 

But then I have to piss a lot and flush the toilet more. Back yard it is!

[PTINS 3459]

On 3/13/2024 at 11:06 PM, TKthunder2 said:

I’ve never understood why they don’t try to dig up sometimes island and increase the capacity of the lake. When we get those once a decade type rainfall seasons which fills the lake past 100% and they just open the flood gates all the way it just seems so wasteful, when we know within 5 years we’ll be back to worrying about the water supply.

It seems like that is a relatively easy an obvious way to increase capacity especially while the lake is low, so I’m assuming their must be some other reason why it hasn’t been done.

I'm betting there's a lot of things you don't understand.

The primary task of the Highland Lakes is Flood Control. Recreation was a by product, never a primary concern.

On 3/13/2024 at 11:31 PM, Larry T. Spider said:

The reason they don’t leave it at or over 100% full is because the risk of flooding. Usually the ground is saturated so it would take much to generate a lot of runoff into the lake.

I do think they have brought it down a little too far in the past though. For most of Austin’s history, floods have been a bigger threat than drought, but it’s time to recalibrate.

Lake Travis was always meant to be a surge control for the Colorado River. The water use, and rights downstream have always taken priority over the conditions on Lake Travis. Lake Travis will release a minimal amount of water for downstream water needs, and will restrict water discharges when the downstream river levels reach a certain point. 

On 3/14/2024 at 7:45 AM, 1978horn said:

LCRA is going to stage 3 officially on May 1st.   There are rumors that they are talking about going to stage 4 in late summer/early fall based on projections.  They are also reworking the drought contingency plan and all the stages. People need to stop irrigating and worry about drinking water.  

Lots more people consuming water than in previous droughts.  If we don't get rain soon and lots of it west of us it could get bad.

In the not to distant future, there will be 50 million people living between DFW and San Antonio. There are not enough water resources to support that many people.

On 3/14/2024 at 10:50 AM, TKthunder2 said:

Not kidding. Have you seen the water reclamation projects that have been proposed, including desalinization and force pumping into old aquifers? The money proposed on those efforts also only equals a fraction of a percent of Lake Travis.

It seems like they could deepen/widen the existing reservoir and be cheaper than many of these other water projects to capture more natural run off…and it also would help out those that use the lake for recreational purposes at the same time. I’ve fucked up a few props out there on a rock that came out of nowhere.

Something like this would have multiple public benefits.

Who is They? You and your neighbors going to foot the bill for this? 

The rocks have always been there. Perhaps it's the dumbass who hit the rocks is the one that came out of nowhere? Reminds me of the time some guy ran his boat aground at Pace Bend Park and couldn't understand why no one would take him to back to Lago Vista. It was only a mile away, by helicopter, or 50 miles, and a 3 hour round trip, by car. 

Yeah, setting off explosive charges to fracture the natural limestone adjacent to Mansfield Dam sounds like a great idea. 

The water level in the Trinity Aquifer dropped 50' last year. Not a lake, the aquifer. That is a much bigger issue than the water levels in Lake Travis. 

There is not enough water for the amount of people that want it. End of Story.

On 3/14/2024 at 1:26 PM, Orange&White said:

Exactly.

This gives you a better idea of what "Sometimes Island" really is. And for perspective, that cliff on the left side of that ridge is the deepest point in the lake at about 185' when the lake was full.

Great Picture. Not a house is site.

One would think the river channel at the base of the damn would be the deepest part.

On 3/14/2024 at 7:31 PM, TKthunder2 said:

We got quarries all over. Digging up/blasting rock ain’t easy but it’s not impossible either. It makes the lake more usable and increase water storage is a win win.

34 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Well, they are on the lake and they want to be able to launch their boat.  Selfish assholes.

IGNORANT, SELFISH ASSHOLES!!!

Simply amazing how so many people move to a very desirable habitat, and then intentionally fuck it up.

[DaggerHorns 3082]

53 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

But then I have to piss a lot and flush the toilet more. Back yard it is!

Solid solution.

Water Conservation. Everyone can do their part.

[CHIEF 5075]

On 3/14/2024 at 10:23 PM, Chet Steadman said:

Nice.  This and one other taken a month or two later during construction are my fave Travis pics.  

The deepest part of the lake is actually just west of Starnes Island.  Well over 230’ when the lake is full.  

At full pool level, not over filled, I have seen depths of over 300 feet, on a high end depth finder, in the area right below The Oasis. I remember back in the 90's when someone lost a sailboat, and they didn't find it for about a decade. It's pitch black at the bottom.

CHIEF

Edited March 16 by CHIEF
depth finder

[atomheartbevo 89618]

On 3/14/2024 at 10:45 PM, Larry T. Spider said:

Are there any places to get water data to compare normal usage to things like SXSW week. The hordes aren’t watering lawns but that’s a shitload of extra showers and toilet flushes. I’m sure it doesn’t have any measurable impact but I find it interesting.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2935]

While Canyon Lake is at historic lows, my dipshit Californian neighbors next door water their shitty yard full of weeds 3-4 times per week all night while we are in stage 3 restrictions. Meanwhile I haven’t irrigated once this year and my Bermuda looks miles better than anyone on my street with zero weeds. 
 

Fucking maddening. 

[Leeroy Jenkins 2397]

On 3/14/2024 at 12:28 PM, GreenspointTexas said:

I live in Houston and its the same shit there. Maybe dont build a fucking city on a bayou near the coast

 

 

Also, why dont more people live in Tyler? Its a pretty badass city

https://www.cbs19.tv/article/news/local/tyler-named-best-city-to-move-to-in-texas/501-1f8db358-eb96-4153-b00d-7cc7d6006a04

[Hornius Emeritus 12448]

50 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

While Canyon Lake is at historic lows, my dipshit Californian neighbors next door water their shitty yard full of weeds 3-4 times per week all night while we are in stage 3 restrictions. Meanwhile I haven’t irrigated once this year and my Bermuda looks miles better than anyone on my street with zero weeds. 
 

Fucking maddening. 

"The tragedy of the commons refers to a situation in which individuals with access to a public resource (also called a common) act in their own interest and, in doing so, ultimately deplete the resource.

This economic theory was first conceptualized in 1833 by British writer William Forster Lloyd. In 1968, the term “tragedy of the commons” was used for the first time by Garret Hardin in Science Magazine.

This theory explains individuals’ tendency to make decisions based on their personal needs, regardless of the negative impact it may have on others. In some cases, an individual’s belief that others won’t act in the best interest of the group can lead them to justify selfish behavior. Potential overuse of a common-pool resource—hybrid between a public and private good— can also influence individuals to act with their short-term interest in mind, resulting in the use of an unsustainable product and disregard the harm it could cause to the environment or general public."


https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/tragedy-of-the-commons-impact-on-sustainability-issues

[B00M 6413]

10 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

While Canyon Lake is at historic lows, my dipshit Californian neighbors next door water their shitty yard full of weeds 3-4 times per week all night while we are in stage 3 restrictions. Meanwhile I haven’t irrigated once this year and my Bermuda looks miles better than anyone on my street with zero weeds. 
 

Fucking maddening. 

I hate my St Augustine so much

[tx 3 putt 76862]

On 3/14/2024 at 7:45 AM, 1978horn said:

LCRA is going to stage 3 officially on May 1st.   There are rumors that they are talking about going to stage 4 in late summer/early fall based on projections.  They are also reworking the drought contingency plan and all the stages. People need to stop irrigating and worry about drinking water.  

 

Lots more people consuming water than in previous droughts.  If we don't get rain soon and lots of it west of us it could get bad.

how much drought does there have to be to upset the food chain ?

[troph 24781]

10 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

"The tragedy of the commons refers to a situation in which individuals with access to a public resource (also called a common) act in their own interest and, in doing so, ultimately deplete the resource.

This economic theory was first conceptualized in 1833 by British writer William Forster Lloyd. In 1968, the term “tragedy of the commons” was used for the first time by Garret Hardin in Science Magazine.

This theory explains individuals’ tendency to make decisions based on their personal needs, regardless of the negative impact it may have on others. In some cases, an individual’s belief that others won’t act in the best interest of the group can lead them to justify selfish behavior. Potential overuse of a common-pool resource—hybrid between a public and private good— can also influence individuals to act with their short-term interest in mind, resulting in the use of an unsustainable product and disregard the harm it could cause to the environment or general public."


https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/tragedy-of-the-commons-impact-on-sustainability-issues

This is exactly why we are here we are. 100%. And worse you try and do something even on a small scale and the masses point their fingers and ridicule you for thinking you’re better than them, even when that’s nothing close to the truth. Just trying to fight the theory that prevents us from solving the crisis. Fuck man.  

[Anastasis 23454]

Not on target.

 

 

[Deej 76750]

Pretty soon, there will be nowhere for Nicole to dump the bodies.