Lake Travis 2024: Countdown To Zero

[PvilleStang 2809]

2 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Is that good?

1000cfs better than it has been!

[Pimphand 5523]

 

[Brisketexan 103602]

3 hours ago, PvilleStang said:

1000cfs better than it has been!

That's 1.3 acre feet of water per minute.  Around 80 acre feet per hour.  Just under 2000 acre feet per day.  3.5 days of that, and you've added the amount of water Samsung uses in a year.  So, helpful....but not world-changing.

[texasdago 7407]

[Surly Bevo 24573]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's 1.3 acre feet of water per minute.  Around 80 acre feet per hour.  Just under 2000 acre feet per day.  3.5 days of that, and you've added the amount of water Samsung uses in a year.  So, helpful....but not world-changing.

Good thing is when everybody in Austin dies of dehydration we can go loot all the electronics, drive Samsung demand down and put them out of business.  Sorry about you all dying though.  

[Snake Diggity 4566]

Radar shows a band of red over the watershed starting around 7 tonight.

[bolverk 29082]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Radar shows a band of red over the watershed starting around 7 tonight.

The upper basin is getting it good right now.

[Pimphand 5523]

This is going to be one of the rainiest Mays we have seen if the long term forecasts hold up.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11536]

24 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

This is going to be one of the rainiest Mays we have seen if the long term forecasts hold up.

[Biff Tannen 45151]

The craziest Lake Travis event in my living memory was the Memorial Weekend flood that filled it up in 2014 (2015?).  Went from low as fuck to 680 in like a few days.  We went out on the lake the week after and the water was all cloudy from all the sediment.  Would like to see that again.

[Mikey4 2476]

27 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

The craziest Lake Travis event in my living memory was the Memorial Weekend flood that filled it up in 2014 (2015?).  Went from low as fuck to 680 in like a few days.  We went out on the lake the week after and the water was all cloudy from all the sediment.  Would like to see that again.

2015. It was crazy. We need it again.

[Deej 76197]

Can't we just park South Austin's mom over the watershed? 

Edited May 4 by Deej

[immamac 41718]

20 minutes ago, Mikey4 said:

2015. It was crazy. We need it again.

It doesn’t help all that much cuz they just open all the downriver dams and LT to full. It’s lame. 

[atomheartbevo 89015]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

The craziest Lake Travis event in my living memory was the Memorial Weekend flood that filled it up in 2014 (2015?).  Went from low as fuck to 680 in like a few days.  We went out on the lake the week after and the water was all cloudy from all the sediment.  Would like to see that again.

Would be tough to match that, we are talking 50 feet/62% of the volume.

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

 

[troph 24024]

Up .2 inches so far!!

[Born to Run 6314]

This is going to be one of the rainiest Mays we have seen if the long term forecasts hold up.

You fucking asshole.

No offense

[Born to Run 6314]

The craziest Lake Travis event in my living memory was the Memorial Weekend flood that filled it up in 2014 (2015?).  Went from low as fuck to 680 in like a few days.  We went out on the lake the week after and the water was all cloudy from all the sediment.  Would like to see that again.

I can see Mansfield out my window. That release flood was crazy; fucked up some boat houses on the upper end of the lake. A few nice boats got pinned and totalled on the Steiner side. The CFS were insane. We had a standing wave nearly a mile downstream, but there wasn't an approachable eddy, so no one surfed it. If you fell in; it was going to he a ride. At least up 10 above normal stage' close to the dam.

At the dam it looked like death on a stick. So violent; so much water.

[CleverNickname 1281]

Llano a at Junction was briefly over 24k cfs. That will take a while to move  downstream. Things might get interesting if another good slug on top of now saturated soils falls as that flow passes on down.

[troph 24024]

2 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Llano a at Junction was briefly over 24k cfs. That will take a while to move  downstream. Things might get interesting if another good slug on top of now saturated soils falls as that flow passes on down.

I’d expect most rainfall the next 3-4 weeks to go into the lake assuming it doesn’t go dry for 2 weeks then rain. Rain totals the last month are impressive and llano and Buchanan each got 2 inches plus last night. Man if we could steal some increases this month even only 5-10 feet it would be huge.

[texasdago 7407]

3 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Llano a at Junction was briefly over 24k cfs. That will take a while to move  downstream. Things might get interesting if another good slug on top of now saturated soils falls as that flow passes on down.

[troph 24024]

15 hours ago, texasdago said:

Upper Buchanan basis / pecan Bayou which flows directly into the Colorado is over 6 inches tonight. It won’t make Travis but water in Buchanan is ultimately the same thing.

[CleverNickname 1281]

that gauge showing 4600 cfs seems to have died at 920pm. I presume conditions an FM 45 and the river north of Richland Springs are now one giant floating anthill. 

The downstream gauge showing climbing above 2000 cfs steeple. 

[atomheartbevo 89015]

1 hour ago, CleverNickname said:

presume conditions an FM 45 and the river north of Richland Springs are now one giant floating anthill. 

Some of the flooding around Montgomery County showed people wading through waist-deep water and my first thought was “you better be watching for fire ant balls”.

[Hornius Emeritus 12332]

Supposed to get a big storm in Austin around 2:00 a m tonight.

[Rudiger 1148]

Dumb question amnesty: what’s the conversion rate of chicken fried steaks to gallons of water?

[Surly Bevo 24573]

2 minutes ago, Rudiger said:

Dumb question amnesty: what’s the conversion rate of chicken fried steaks to gallons of water?

bout tree fiddy

[immamac 41718]

16 minutes ago, Rudiger said:

Dumb question amnesty: what’s the conversion rate of chicken fried steaks to gallons of water?

1 CF/s is 448.831 GPM

[CleverNickname 1281]

I was trying to find some way to get excess Brazos water from PK or Lake Whitney down to a NE tributary of Pecan Bayou near Blanket or to near Lometa. Then let the water run down natural course into Lake Buchanon. But I think the elevation won't work - the Colorado simply runs a good 400 ft higher in elevation across that fairly short 80 miles of latitude. I guess we do have a lot of wind and solar power in the area that could push water. People have crazy plans to pump the Upper Missouri over the continental divide, so some hills near Commanche ain't shit.

Anyhow, my little creek near Mullin was running about 5 ft deep yesterday judging by the debris today. Had to mess with a water gate. Down to ankle deep by 10am today. 

[PvilleStang 2809]

We're up a foot and a half as of this morning.  Do we need to change the title of this thread?  Finally, all the area is coming out of the drought and the ground is saturated. Let's bring on some more decent rains in the next few weeks and move the needle some more!

 

[1978horn 867]

Yep. I believe we are close to 100,000 acre feet added in the last week.  That takes us over the 900k acre ft that requires LCRA customers to go to Stage 2 restrictions.  That being said, to go back to Stage 1 restrictions the lakes need to be at 1.1 million and inflows need to be flowing.  The rain last weekend did a lot and will possibly help the area from going to stage 4 later in the summer.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11536]

Fredrickburg rain will be nice coming up.  That goes straight to Travis without going to LBJ first.  4 days in the next 10 have rain in the forecast.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13310]

Not an expert but it's not difficult to identify a trend on this page. The second chart is interesting in that we're always a decent percent off statewide total capacity of the lakes so let's hope that many of the problems of the last decade are not the norm. 

[Trey3216 15308]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not an expert but it's not difficult to identify a trend on this page. The second chart is interesting in that we're always a decent percent off statewide total capacity of the lakes so let's hope that many of the problems of the last decade are not the norm. 

I mean, it's kind of a climatological/topographic reality

[Nice Guy Eddie 13310]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I mean, it's kind of a climatological/topographic reality

valid points. The lakes and rivers on the eastern side of Texas have the capability to bounce back much faster when droughts occur. Some of the western and southwestern might be unlikely to recover.

[Surly Bevo 24573]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I mean, it's kind of a climatological/topographic reality

Yea that first graph is why nobody lives west of the San Antonio/Austin/Fort Worth line extended up to Canada.  Rough topography and no rain.  

[Trey3216 15308]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

valid points. The lakes and rivers on the eastern side of Texas have the capability to bounce back much faster when droughts occur. Some of the western and southwestern might be unlikely to recover.

They will at some point...when the flood hits.  W and SW Texas, as most arid regions, exists in a constant cycle of drought and flood.  

[utee94 15722]

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

They will at some point...when the flood hits.  W and SW Texas, as most arid regions, exists in a constant cycle of drought and flood.  

Yup.  Droughts end in floods, same as it ever was.

There will be a time when LT is sitting at 685 and nobody will believe it was 630 just _____ months ago.

But the cycle is almost certain to lengthen and the amount of time spent below 670 will become greater and greater, over time.
_______

[1978horn 867]

streamflows are starting to slow.  We need some more rain in those basins while the ground is soaked.

[atomheartbevo 89015]

9 hours ago, utee94 said:

There will be a time when LT is sitting at 685

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2740]

16 hours ago, PvilleStang said:

We're up a foot and a half as of this morning.  Do we need to change the title of this thread?  Finally, all the area is coming out of the drought and the ground is saturated. Let's bring on some more decent rains in the next few weeks and move the needle some more!

 

Edited May 8 by Wilcox Cummingtonite

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2740]

Btw, most of the Guadalupe River Basin is still in severe drought. Canyon Lake is at all-time lows with no end in sight. Not much latitude between the two basins in case anyone is curious how the future looks as Hadley cells continue to expand north. 
 

Just wait until La Niña hits late 2024-26. Remember 2011?

Edited May 8 by Wilcox Cummingtonite

[InkaUtexas 24932]

Kyle is asking San Marcos for 450,000 more gallons a day. Not sure where San Marcos will get it.

I guess rapid growth, green lawns, new builds and other shit has an impact on water needs.

[1978horn 867]

Kyle is asking San Marcos for 450,000 more gallons a day. Not sure where San Marcos will get it.
I guess rapid growth, green lawns, new builds and other shit has an impact on water needs.

I wonder how many water taps that is for. That’s about what my area of 1000 homes uses a day…which is ridiculous.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

8 minutes ago, 1978horn said:

I wonder how many water taps that is for. That’s about what my area of 1000 homes uses a day…which is ridiculous.

No idea. Was not in the article. Vote is this week. Kyle City Manager is on record saying we don't have a water problem in San Marcos. To hell we don't.

Kyle already pulls from here and from Canyon Lake, which was stated above as being low as well as the highland lakes.

 

 

[1978horn 867]

23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

No idea. Was not in the article. Vote is this week. Kyle City Manager is on record saying we don't have a water problem in San Marcos. To hell we don't.

Kyle already pulls from here and from Canyon Lake, which was stated above as being low as well as the highland lakes.

 

 

Yeah, we have water problems all over the area.  Doesn't San Marcos pull from Canyon lake as well?  So same straw different meter. 

There are a significant amount of people using ridiculous amounts of water.  In my area there are a number of houses using 40k gallons a month.  Water is a vital and limited resource and folks don't understand it just doesn't come out of the tap or sprinkler head via magic.  It is going to take everyone conserving to ensure we have water to drink over the next decade.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

30 minutes ago, 1978horn said:

Yeah, we have water problems all over the area.  Doesn't San Marcos pull from Canyon lake as well?  So same straw different meter. 

There are a significant amount of people using ridiculous amounts of water.  In my area there are a number of houses using 40k gallons a month.  Water is a vital and limited resource and folks don't understand it just doesn't come out of the tap or sprinkler head via magic.  It is going to take everyone conserving to ensure we have water to drink over the next decade.

Yep they do, and the laws at Texas state in August piss me off. Why are schools in Texas (from elementary on up) not zeroscaped?

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11536]

the travis and drainage basin -- basically from the lake west to fredricksburg -- is the driest soil out there.  there's not going to be any water headed to travis that doesn't go through buchanan first.

[Born to Run 6314]

the travis and drainage basin -- basically from the lake west to fredricksburg -- is the driest soil out there.  there's not going to be any water headed to travis that doesn't go through buchanan first.

The Llano River says "erroneous".

[Samson's Wig 3166]

On 5/8/2024 at 9:25 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Yep they do, and the laws at Texas state in August piss me off. Why are schools in Texas (from elementary on up) not zeroscaped?

 

I'm with you there, although I don't have a problem with elementary school kids having grass to run around on, as they actually have recess every day.  Middle and High schools have no real need for it, especially these days.  Sports fields can be artificial. 

Why do golf courses exist around here?  Get rid of golf courses and municipal and state water usage for landscaping (hell, throw in all other commercial landscaping usage), and this problem is licked overnight. Tell the rice farmers downstream to pound sand and find a place to grow rice that is actually suited for it or otherwise find a reasonable crop that can be responsibly grown in that region, and Central Texas will be as wet as it needs to be.  Residential restrictions (or the money grab (under the guise of social engineering) by way of insane rate-raping that Austin Water does, won't put a dent in the problem.  Xeriscaping is great, but residential applications don't mean much.  Other towns with an abundance of residential xeriscaping still deal with water issues.  Albuquerque is an example where you would have to hunt for hours to find a lawn larger than a postage stamp. They still struggle for water. Agriculture, commercial, and government usage are the only places the problem can be addressed meaningfully.  But just as we don't address commercial power usage when the grid is struggling, we won't do anything to these groups about water either.   No doubt there are some residential water hogs out there, but they don't put a dent in the water supply even as a collective, and neighbors yelling at them so they can achieve that sweet sanctimonious high isn't accomplishing a damn thing other than making sure they're not invited to the next block party.  We've got a very small patch of grass in our front yard, with the rest being xeriscaped or landscaped with native plants, and I still had some self-righteous asshole yell at me about hand watering the grass one evening.  Fuck that lady.  As we do with most issues, we're turning this one into religious bullshit. 

 

PS Aside - If we get rid of golf courses let's get rid of bike lanes as well.  That has nothing to do with water, but bicycle lanes are the golf course of the roadway if you think about who is utilizing them.

[Hate 20059]

You lost me at golf courses.