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Posted

If you correctly pick two #1 seeds who meet in the title game that only gives you 36 points for those two picks. But that means nobody else is getting huge scores from the Final Four so it can still work. 

Unless someone else gets a 13 seed in the Sweet 16 then they got 39 right there. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

If you correctly pick two #1 seeds who meet in the title game that only gives you 36 points for those two picks. But that means nobody else is getting huge scores from the Final Four so it can still work. 

Unless someone else gets a 13 seed in the Sweet 16 then they got 39 right there. 

Yeah but he took one in the 5th round and 1 in the 7th round so that's pretty good value, really.  He didn't go too early.  

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah but he took one in the 5th round and 1 in the 7th round so that's pretty good value, really.  He didn't go too early.  

I took Uconn in round 4 b/c I really believe they are going to win the tournament and get me 21 points, which feels like the right time to take a team that you expect to win 10 points, might win 15 and has a fighting shot at 21.  

Posted
11 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i really had to fight the urge to draft morehead and longwood back to back.

I responded back with "prepare your anus".  Because you could get more head and longwood shoved up your anus.  Because you like that stuff.  Ha.  I'm 12 again.   Also, explaining super obvious jokes that everyone gets tediously is the height of humor. 

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  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

Everyone made fun of my Longwood pick, but I have history on my side. Huck has his fancy algorithm, I've got sexual innuendo. 

image.thumb.png.72060f4813aec4bdac32bb5dbfd7ca32.png

now that is some solid ANALysis 

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Posted

Semi-update after the First Four

Huckleberry - 89.22
HornOnTheBayou - 71.14
BigOrange1 - 65.09
shadow_operative - 62.38
joeycovers - 62.26
Prepuce of Doom - 60.29
srr50 - 58.71
Wulaw Horn - 49.54
 

Posted

Today's matchups in tip order

#8 Mississippi St. (0, 8.62, srr50 - 42.57%) vs. #9 Michigan St. (0, 16.22, Huckleberry - 57.43%)
#6 BYU (0, 19.01, shadow_operative - 80.95%) vs. #11 Duquesne (0, 3.18, srr50 - 19.05%)
#3 Creighton (0, 12.49, BigOrange1 - 86.99%) vs. #14 Akron (0, 2.97, BigOrange1 - 13.01%)
#2 Arizona (0, 12.22, Huckleberry - 92.76%) vs. #15 Long Beach St. (0, 1.44, shadow_operative - 7.24%)
#1 North Carolina (0, 4.64, HornOnTheBayou - 98.91%) vs. #16 Wagner (0, 0.19, srr50 - 1.09%)
#3 Illinois (0, 11.10, Wulaw Horn - 94.49%) vs. #14 Morehead St. (0, 1.02, shadow_operative - 5.51%)
#6 South Carolina (0, 6.47, Wulaw Horn - 48.05%) vs. #11 Oregon (0, 12.86, joeycovers - 51.95%)
#7 Dayton (0, 7.52, BigOrange1 - 50.56%) vs. #10 Nevada (0, 10.83, shadow_operative - 49.44%)
#7 Texas (0, 11.12, Wulaw Horn - 57.13%) vs. #10 Colorado St. (0, 9.89, Prepuce of Doom - 42.87%)
#3 Kentucky (0, 9.92, shadow_operative - 85.72%) vs. #14 Oakland (0, 2.98, BigOrange1 - 14.28%)
#5 Gonzaga (0, 12.85, HornOnTheBayou - 76.22%) vs. #12 McNeese St. (0, 5.40, Prepuce of Doom - 23.78%)
#2 Iowa St. (0, 10.25, HornOnTheBayou - 91.31%) vs. #15 South Dakota St. (0, 2.03, joeycovers - 8.69%)
#2 Tennessee (0, 10.25, joeycovers - 95.98%) vs. #15 St. Peter's (0, 0.71, Wulaw Horn - 4.02%)
#6 Texas Tech (0, 12.21, BigOrange1 - 62.17%) vs. #11 North Carolina St. (0, 9.82, Huckleberry - 37.83%)
#4 Kansas (0, 10.31, joeycovers - 73.58%) vs. #13 Samford (0, 6.09, shadow_operative - 26.42%)
#7 Washington St. (0, 9.17, Huckleberry - 56.84%) vs. #10 Drake (0, 8.79, HornOnTheBayou - 43.16%)
 

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Posted (edited)

Huck's robot slave is currently winning (29 points and no teams lost), while Derka is down to just two teams with no points on the board. Everyone else is somewhere in between. 

20240322_005804.thumb.jpg.adba201c8da0278d22383e858304283b.jpg

20240322_005724.jpg

Edited by Prepuce of Doom
Posted

Today's matchups

#9 Northwestern (0, 8.61, Huckleberry - 47.36%) vs. #8 Florida Atlantic (0, 9.02, Prepuce of Doom - 52.64%)
#14 Colgate (0, 1.30, srr50 - 6.90%) vs. #3 Baylor (0, 11.71, Prepuce of Doom - 93.10%)
#12 UAB (0, 4.71, Wulaw Horn - 26.22%) vs. #5 San Diego St. (0, 8.95, BigOrange1 - 73.78%)
#15 Western Kentucky (0, 2.20, Prepuce of Doom - 10.10%) vs. #2 Marquette (0, 8.78, HornOnTheBayou - 89.90%)
#16 Stetson (0, 1.09, Huckleberry - 5.04%) vs. #1 Connecticut (0, 6.01, Wulaw Horn - 94.96%)
#11 New Mexico (0, 16.36, srr50 - 52.99%) vs. #6 Clemson (0, 7.19, Wulaw Horn - 47.01%)
#13 Yale (0, 2.15, Wulaw Horn - 9.73%) vs. #4 Auburn (0, 20.35, Huckleberry - 90.27%)
#10 Colorado (0, 18.85, srr50 - 52.26%) vs. #7 Florida (0, 11.26, HornOnTheBayou - 47.74%)
#9 Texas A&M (0, 7.63, srr50 - 44.62%) vs. #8 Nebraska (0, 10.09, joeycovers - 55.38%)
#13 Vermont (0, 1.84, joeycovers - 9.30%) vs. #4 Duke (0, 16.15, HornOnTheBayou - 90.70%)
#16 Grambling (0, 0.10, Prepuce of Doom - 0.61%) vs. #1 Purdue (0, 7.36, joeycovers - 99.39%)
#13 College of Charleston (0, 3.40, shadow_operative - 16.33%) vs. #4 Alabama (0, 15.24, Prepuce of Doom - 83.67%)
#16 Longwood (0, 0.74, HornOnTheBayou - 3.30%) vs. #1 Houston (0, 7.73, joeycovers - 96.70%)
#12 James Madison (0, 6.12, Prepuce of Doom - 29.94%) vs. #5 Wisconsin (0, 10.35, BigOrange1 - 70.06%)
#9 TCU (0, 10.98, Huckleberry - 60.37%) vs. #8 Utah St. (0, 5.38, srr50 - 39.63%)
#12 Grand Canyon (0, 7.93, BigOrange1 - 33.01%) vs. #5 St. Mary's (0, 10.72, shadow_operative - 66.99%)
 

Posted

think i need all 3 of my teams to win today.  definitely need 2/3 and it'd be nice if the 12 seed was one of them.  tech losing last night was not great for my overall chances in this (but was hilarious so theres that).

Posted

Not sure if you need all of them, I've been where I am now before and then watched every team I had in the second round lose. Long way to go. 

But Derka definitely needs a St. Mary's national championship and/or a College of Charleston Elite 8 run. 

  • Haha 2
Posted
19 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Northwestern tried to blow it for me but FAU refused to let them. 5-0 start now. 7-1 is possible, Stetson will get blasted of course. 

Hats off to you if you do have a perfect first round! 

Posted
8 hours ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Derka. 

... 

Appears to be a 3-4 horse race at this point. 

20240323_004009.jpg

20240323_004106.jpg

I think I have 30 points. @Huckleberry where we at on our likelihood of scoring?  I assume I will be down, after this round, to a potential of 18 points for UConn winning it all and everyone else eliminated (maybe Illinois) but hoping this is the one shining moment for me I can dream on having an 11% chance of winning. 

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Posted
41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think I have 30 points. @Huckleberry where we at on our likelihood of scoring?  I assume I will be down, after this round, to a potential of 18 points for UConn winning it all and everyone else eliminated (maybe Illinois) but hoping this is the one shining moment for me I can dream on having an 11% chance of winning. 

You are correct. Thanks for pointing that out.

Posted (edited)

Sorry guys, still swamped. Tonight I hope to do the Sweet 16 update.

Poster, Current Score, EV

Huckleberry, 64, 98.94
BigOrange1, 47, 79.81
HornOnTheBayou, 30, 76.73
srr50, 38, 72.15
Wulaw Horn, 36, 64.49
Prepuce of Doom, 19, 50.49
joeycovers, 23, 44.47
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

The reason the percentage of winning overall update after today's games is so much better is that my EV up there is largely wrapped up in NC State beating the Marquette/Colorado winner.

Edited by Huckleberry
Posted

Today's Matchups

#2 Marquette (2, 9.46, HornOnTheBayou - 58.70%) vs. #10 Colorado (10, 31.64, srr50 - 41.30%)
#1 Purdue (1, 7.47, joeycovers - 82.07%) vs. #8 Utah St. (8, 13.18, srr50 - 17.93%)
#4 Duke (4, 20.21, HornOnTheBayou - 79.64%) vs. #12 James Madison (12, 18.77, Prepuce of Doom - 20.36%)
#3 Baylor (3, 11.89, Prepuce of Doom - 64.37%) vs. #6 Clemson (6, 13.56, Wulaw Horn - 35.63%)
#4 Alabama (4, 19.82, Prepuce of Doom - 74.06%) vs. #12 Grand Canyon (12, 20.86, BigOrange1 - 25.94%)
#1 Connecticut (1, 7.18, Wulaw Horn - 76.04%) vs. #9 Northwestern (9, 18.31, Huckleberry - 23.96%)
#1 Houston (1, 8.30, joeycovers - 80.16%) vs. #9 Texas A&M (9, 16.32, srr50 - 19.84%)
#5 San Diego St. (5, 19.94, BigOrange1 - 79.40%) vs. #13 Yale (13, 19.55, Wulaw Horn - 20.60%)
 

Posted

I think I'm tapping out. 

Here's a updated but incomplete score sheet,with just the grid (not the total points of tally of lost teams) good through the end of the Houston game. 

I assume SDSU will win but am not putting pen to paper just for the principle of it...

Will post the completed version tomorrow. 

 

20240324_225156.jpg

Posted

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 64, 87.88
HornOnTheBayou, 42, 80.21
BigOrange1, 57, 72.59
Wulaw Horn, 50, 72.49
joeycovers, 27, 46.50
Prepuce of Doom, 27, 40.46
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00
 

Posted

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 37.24% (11,036)
HornOnTheBayou - 28.98% (9,285)
Wulaw Horn - 16.36% (6,041)
BigOrange1 - 11.47% (5,283)
Prepuce of Doom - 4.45% (827)
Tie - 1.37% (285)
joeycovers - 0.13% (11)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
 

Posted
46 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 64, 87.88
HornOnTheBayou, 42, 80.21
BigOrange1, 57, 72.59
Wulaw Horn, 50, 72.49
joeycovers, 27, 46.50
Prepuce of Doom, 27, 40.46
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00
 

from the highest score ever to the lowest score possible. that’s amazing.

Posted
9 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 37.24% (11,036)
HornOnTheBayou - 28.98% (9,285)
Wulaw Horn - 16.36% (6,041)
BigOrange1 - 11.47% (5,283)
Prepuce of Doom - 4.45% (827)
Tie - 1.37% (285)
joeycovers - 0.13% (11)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
 

Got y’all exactly where I want you. The Avengers had worse odds than this to defeat Thanos but they made it happen.  

  • Haha 1
Posted

Poster, Current Score, EV
Wulaw Horn, 80, 107.99
Huckleberry, 64, 76.42
HornOnTheBayou, 42, 68.46
BigOrange1, 57, 65.58
Prepuce of Doom, 39, 58.21
joeycovers, 27, 46.62
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00
 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Wulaw Horn - 63.99% (1,014)
Huckleberry - 12.18% (506)
Prepuce of Doom - 11.28% (144)
HornOnTheBayou - 10.11% (328)
BigOrange1 - 2.30% (48)
Tie - 0.15% (8)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
 

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