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NCAA seeded draft thread of awesomeness

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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If you correctly pick two #1 seeds who meet in the title game that only gives you 36 points for those two picks. But that means nobody else is getting huge scores from the Final Four so it can still work. 

Unless someone else gets a 13 seed in the Sweet 16 then they got 39 right there. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19098

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

If you correctly pick two #1 seeds who meet in the title game that only gives you 36 points for those two picks. But that means nobody else is getting huge scores from the Final Four so it can still work. 

Unless someone else gets a 13 seed in the Sweet 16 then they got 39 right there. 

Yeah but he took one in the 5th round and 1 in the 7th round so that's pretty good value, really.  He didn't go too early.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19098

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah but he took one in the 5th round and 1 in the 7th round so that's pretty good value, really.  He didn't go too early.  

I took Uconn in round 4 b/c I really believe they are going to win the tournament and get me 21 points, which feels like the right time to take a team that you expect to win 10 points, might win 15 and has a fighting shot at 21.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19098

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11 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i really had to fight the urge to draft morehead and longwood back to back.

I responded back with "prepare your anus".  Because you could get more head and longwood shoved up your anus.  Because you like that stuff.  Ha.  I'm 12 again.   Also, explaining super obvious jokes that everyone gets tediously is the height of humor. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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Today's matchups in tip order

#8 Mississippi St. (0, 8.62, srr50 - 42.57%) vs. #9 Michigan St. (0, 16.22, Huckleberry - 57.43%)
#6 BYU (0, 19.01, shadow_operative - 80.95%) vs. #11 Duquesne (0, 3.18, srr50 - 19.05%)
#3 Creighton (0, 12.49, BigOrange1 - 86.99%) vs. #14 Akron (0, 2.97, BigOrange1 - 13.01%)
#2 Arizona (0, 12.22, Huckleberry - 92.76%) vs. #15 Long Beach St. (0, 1.44, shadow_operative - 7.24%)
#1 North Carolina (0, 4.64, HornOnTheBayou - 98.91%) vs. #16 Wagner (0, 0.19, srr50 - 1.09%)
#3 Illinois (0, 11.10, Wulaw Horn - 94.49%) vs. #14 Morehead St. (0, 1.02, shadow_operative - 5.51%)
#6 South Carolina (0, 6.47, Wulaw Horn - 48.05%) vs. #11 Oregon (0, 12.86, joeycovers - 51.95%)
#7 Dayton (0, 7.52, BigOrange1 - 50.56%) vs. #10 Nevada (0, 10.83, shadow_operative - 49.44%)
#7 Texas (0, 11.12, Wulaw Horn - 57.13%) vs. #10 Colorado St. (0, 9.89, Prepuce of Doom - 42.87%)
#3 Kentucky (0, 9.92, shadow_operative - 85.72%) vs. #14 Oakland (0, 2.98, BigOrange1 - 14.28%)
#5 Gonzaga (0, 12.85, HornOnTheBayou - 76.22%) vs. #12 McNeese St. (0, 5.40, Prepuce of Doom - 23.78%)
#2 Iowa St. (0, 10.25, HornOnTheBayou - 91.31%) vs. #15 South Dakota St. (0, 2.03, joeycovers - 8.69%)
#2 Tennessee (0, 10.25, joeycovers - 95.98%) vs. #15 St. Peter's (0, 0.71, Wulaw Horn - 4.02%)
#6 Texas Tech (0, 12.21, BigOrange1 - 62.17%) vs. #11 North Carolina St. (0, 9.82, Huckleberry - 37.83%)
#4 Kansas (0, 10.31, joeycovers - 73.58%) vs. #13 Samford (0, 6.09, shadow_operative - 26.42%)
#7 Washington St. (0, 9.17, Huckleberry - 56.84%) vs. #10 Drake (0, 8.79, HornOnTheBayou - 43.16%)
 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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Today's matchups

#9 Northwestern (0, 8.61, Huckleberry - 47.36%) vs. #8 Florida Atlantic (0, 9.02, Prepuce of Doom - 52.64%)
#14 Colgate (0, 1.30, srr50 - 6.90%) vs. #3 Baylor (0, 11.71, Prepuce of Doom - 93.10%)
#12 UAB (0, 4.71, Wulaw Horn - 26.22%) vs. #5 San Diego St. (0, 8.95, BigOrange1 - 73.78%)
#15 Western Kentucky (0, 2.20, Prepuce of Doom - 10.10%) vs. #2 Marquette (0, 8.78, HornOnTheBayou - 89.90%)
#16 Stetson (0, 1.09, Huckleberry - 5.04%) vs. #1 Connecticut (0, 6.01, Wulaw Horn - 94.96%)
#11 New Mexico (0, 16.36, srr50 - 52.99%) vs. #6 Clemson (0, 7.19, Wulaw Horn - 47.01%)
#13 Yale (0, 2.15, Wulaw Horn - 9.73%) vs. #4 Auburn (0, 20.35, Huckleberry - 90.27%)
#10 Colorado (0, 18.85, srr50 - 52.26%) vs. #7 Florida (0, 11.26, HornOnTheBayou - 47.74%)
#9 Texas A&M (0, 7.63, srr50 - 44.62%) vs. #8 Nebraska (0, 10.09, joeycovers - 55.38%)
#13 Vermont (0, 1.84, joeycovers - 9.30%) vs. #4 Duke (0, 16.15, HornOnTheBayou - 90.70%)
#16 Grambling (0, 0.10, Prepuce of Doom - 0.61%) vs. #1 Purdue (0, 7.36, joeycovers - 99.39%)
#13 College of Charleston (0, 3.40, shadow_operative - 16.33%) vs. #4 Alabama (0, 15.24, Prepuce of Doom - 83.67%)
#16 Longwood (0, 0.74, HornOnTheBayou - 3.30%) vs. #1 Houston (0, 7.73, joeycovers - 96.70%)
#12 James Madison (0, 6.12, Prepuce of Doom - 29.94%) vs. #5 Wisconsin (0, 10.35, BigOrange1 - 70.06%)
#9 TCU (0, 10.98, Huckleberry - 60.37%) vs. #8 Utah St. (0, 5.38, srr50 - 39.63%)
#12 Grand Canyon (0, 7.93, BigOrange1 - 33.01%) vs. #5 St. Mary's (0, 10.72, shadow_operative - 66.99%)
 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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Not sure if you need all of them, I've been where I am now before and then watched every team I had in the second round lose. Long way to go. 

But Derka definitely needs a St. Mary's national championship and/or a College of Charleston Elite 8 run. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19098

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8 hours ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Derka. 

... 

Appears to be a 3-4 horse race at this point. 

20240323_004009.jpg

20240323_004106.jpg

I think I have 30 points. @Huckleberry where we at on our likelihood of scoring?  I assume I will be down, after this round, to a potential of 18 points for UConn winning it all and everyone else eliminated (maybe Illinois) but hoping this is the one shining moment for me I can dream on having an 11% chance of winning. 

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Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21079

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41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think I have 30 points. @Huckleberry where we at on our likelihood of scoring?  I assume I will be down, after this round, to a potential of 18 points for UConn winning it all and everyone else eliminated (maybe Illinois) but hoping this is the one shining moment for me I can dream on having an 11% chance of winning. 

You are correct. Thanks for pointing that out.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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Sorry guys, still swamped. Tonight I hope to do the Sweet 16 update.

Poster, Current Score, EV

Huckleberry, 64, 98.94
BigOrange1, 47, 79.81
HornOnTheBayou, 30, 76.73
srr50, 38, 72.15
Wulaw Horn, 36, 64.49
Prepuce of Doom, 19, 50.49
joeycovers, 23, 44.47
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

The reason the percentage of winning overall update after today's games is so much better is that my EV up there is largely wrapped up in NC State beating the Marquette/Colorado winner.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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Today's Matchups

#2 Marquette (2, 9.46, HornOnTheBayou - 58.70%) vs. #10 Colorado (10, 31.64, srr50 - 41.30%)
#1 Purdue (1, 7.47, joeycovers - 82.07%) vs. #8 Utah St. (8, 13.18, srr50 - 17.93%)
#4 Duke (4, 20.21, HornOnTheBayou - 79.64%) vs. #12 James Madison (12, 18.77, Prepuce of Doom - 20.36%)
#3 Baylor (3, 11.89, Prepuce of Doom - 64.37%) vs. #6 Clemson (6, 13.56, Wulaw Horn - 35.63%)
#4 Alabama (4, 19.82, Prepuce of Doom - 74.06%) vs. #12 Grand Canyon (12, 20.86, BigOrange1 - 25.94%)
#1 Connecticut (1, 7.18, Wulaw Horn - 76.04%) vs. #9 Northwestern (9, 18.31, Huckleberry - 23.96%)
#1 Houston (1, 8.30, joeycovers - 80.16%) vs. #9 Texas A&M (9, 16.32, srr50 - 19.84%)
#5 San Diego St. (5, 19.94, BigOrange1 - 79.40%) vs. #13 Yale (13, 19.55, Wulaw Horn - 20.60%)
 

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Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21079

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I think I'm tapping out. 

Here's a updated but incomplete score sheet,with just the grid (not the total points of tally of lost teams) good through the end of the Houston game. 

I assume SDSU will win but am not putting pen to paper just for the principle of it...

Will post the completed version tomorrow. 

 

20240324_225156.jpg

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 37.24% (11,036)
HornOnTheBayou - 28.98% (9,285)
Wulaw Horn - 16.36% (6,041)
BigOrange1 - 11.47% (5,283)
Prepuce of Doom - 4.45% (827)
Tie - 1.37% (285)
joeycovers - 0.13% (11)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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46 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 64, 87.88
HornOnTheBayou, 42, 80.21
BigOrange1, 57, 72.59
Wulaw Horn, 50, 72.49
joeycovers, 27, 46.50
Prepuce of Doom, 27, 40.46
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00
 

from the highest score ever to the lowest score possible. that’s amazing.

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joeycovers

joeycovers 391

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9 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 37.24% (11,036)
HornOnTheBayou - 28.98% (9,285)
Wulaw Horn - 16.36% (6,041)
BigOrange1 - 11.47% (5,283)
Prepuce of Doom - 4.45% (827)
Tie - 1.37% (285)
joeycovers - 0.13% (11)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
 

Got y’all exactly where I want you. The Avengers had worse odds than this to defeat Thanos but they made it happen.  

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32997

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Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Wulaw Horn - 63.99% (1,014)
Huckleberry - 12.18% (506)
Prepuce of Doom - 11.28% (144)
HornOnTheBayou - 10.11% (328)
BigOrange1 - 2.30% (48)
Tie - 0.15% (8)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
 

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