The Great Taking

[immamac 43236]

Read online or download | The Great Taking

Anyone read this or taken a look at this?

 

[ztejas 43549]

Bro how much mescaline are you on right now. 

[DaggerHorns 3102]

[immamac 43236]

I mean this isn't really that much conspiracy. The derivatives market is completely fucking insane. The whole collapse part may be a bit dramatic and the whole "plan" of the great taking is maybe a bit on the conspiracy side. You can't argue with derivative markets being completely out of touch with reality and thus the stock market being completely divorced from reality. 

[DalTxHornFan 3119]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

I mean this isn't really that much conspiracy. The derivatives market is completely fucking insane. The whole collapse part may be a bit dramatic and the whole "plan" of the great taking is maybe a bit on the conspiracy side. You can't argue with derivative markets being completely out of touch with reality and thus the stock market being completely divorced from reality. 

You are not wrong.  Pre-covid, I questioned what was driving market valuations, so I put together a small play portfolio in my non taxable accounts of stocks that had solid dividend histories.  75 percent of them stopped paying dividends.  The valuation didn't change all that much.  Crazy. 

[F250 28826]

The first few seconds of that video made me think Alfred Hitchcock was going to come walking down the hall.

 

[ztejas 43549]

I'm just tryna get fucked up and play runescape. 

[Captainant 27853]

On 3/16/2024 at 11:00 PM, DalTxHornFan said:

You are not wrong.  Pre-covid, I questioned what was driving market valuations, so I put together a small play portfolio in my non taxable accounts of stocks that had solid dividend histories.  75 percent of them stopped paying dividends.  The valuation didn't change all that much.  Crazy. 

The stock market stopped being an indicator of how companies are doing, and started being the product sold by the company itself. The best example of this is TSLA, their valuation is fucking lunacy and more than their next five competitors COMBINED despite not actually selling that many cars. The favorite excuse it "it's a tech valuation" as if that justifies selling a vision and FOMO as a primary product, rather than anything actually tangible

[Incredulity 11683]

IMPO.

Is there a global asset bubble?  yes

Is the global financial systems regulatory regime rife with contradictory rules/regulations and set up in favor of large institutions?  yes

Does The Pentaverate meet Bi-Annually at the Meadows to screw the average Joe? no 

[Wally Fairway 5590]

35 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The stock market stopped being an indicator of how companies are doing, and started being the product sold by the company itself. The best example of this is TSLA, their valuation is fucking lunacy and more than their next five competitors COMBINED despite not actually selling that many cars. The favorite excuse it "it's a tech valuation" as if that justifies selling a vision and FOMO as a primary product, rather than anything actually tangible

The other leg of crazy valuation was the near 0% interest on "safe" investment in thinks like Treasury's, T-Bills, Muni debt, etc - because when you would compare the potential risk to the safe return you can get to multiples of 20x earnings (or sales) The simpler world was comparing earnings and dividends to interest rates, and then determine your risk appetite; but then tax inefficiency  and stock buyback reduced the number of companies paying diviidends & 0.10 % interest rates made anything a better return.
And then Covid hit, the Fed turned on the stimulus machine and "normal" recognized economics seemed to go right out the window

[Captainant 27853]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

The other leg of crazy valuation was the near 0% interest on "safe" investment in thinks like Treasury's, T-Bills, Muni debt, etc - because when you would compare the potential risk to the safe return you can get to multiples of 20x earnings (or sales) The simpler world was comparing earnings and dividends to interest rates, and then determine your risk appetite; but then tax inefficiency  and stock buyback reduced the number of companies paying diviidends & 0.10 % interest rates made anything a better return.
And then Covid hit, the Fed turned on the stimulus machine and "normal" recognized economics seemed to go right out the window

Yeah, that was the risk we ran when in 2017 we doled out a shitload of economic stimulus when the markets were already pretty dang hot. There was nothing left that was not diminishing returns when we ACTUALLY needed economic stimulus and not just happy headlines 

[Captainant 27853]

1 minute ago, BeardIP said:

The stock market has never been about how companies are doing.

It's about how companies are going to do in the future. Stocks go up when sentiment and consensus that the company's value will go up and it goes down when there are headwinds.

The platonic ideal of the market is responsible speculation based on technicals. The reality is more McConaughey in WoWS.

I was more invoking Goodharts Law and applying it to company stock valuations. I would argue that because much of executive compensation is tied solely to stock value, it creates and motivates perverse incentives to manipulate that price quarter to quarter and overlook long term consequences to short term strategies. 

One of the many outcomes from this is the market value stock price becoming effectively decoupled from the actual value of the stock price.

[Fondren & Main 6743]

Alex Jones used to talk about this all the time back when I was at UT over a decade ago.

[immamac 43236]

26 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Alex Jones used to talk about this all the time back when I was at UT over a decade ago.

Idk that this is that. 

[Fondren & Main 6743]

I’ll check that out tomorrow during work.  It sounds interesting.

[EastHorn 281]

36 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Alex Jones used to talk about this all the time back when I was at UT over a decade ago.

I miss when Charlie Hodge would make fun of Alex Jones.  

[Neonmoon 38130]

On 3/16/2024 at 11:34 PM, immamac said:

Read online or download | The Great Taking

Anyone read this or taken a look at this?

subjugate humanity? Step away from the tinfoil 

[Gatorubet 30324]

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

subjugate humanity? Step away from the tinfoil 

What if tinfoil was invented by the aliens - and allows them to gain control of your mind when placed on your head??

[InkaUtexas 26183]

8 hours ago, Fondren & Main said:

Alex Jones used to talk about this all the time back when I was at UT over a decade ago.

Remember when he was whining on local news during a freeze? Maybe 2010-11.  I do..... And yeah, when he was on Public access we would get high and laugh at him.

 

[hayden_horn 11365]

lulz at you johnnie come lately motherfuckers. late 90s cable access ftw. alex went down to dps with a camera and it was glorious. then puppetose.

[Neonmoon 38130]

On 3/16/2024 at 11:49 PM, immamac said:

I mean this isn't really that much conspiracy. The derivatives market is completely fucking insane. The whole collapse part may be a bit dramatic and the whole "plan" of the great taking is maybe a bit on the conspiracy side. You can't argue with derivative markets being completely out of touch with reality and thus the stock market being completely divorced from reality. 

It is pure anti-Fed goldbug conspiracy nonsense. The Fed wasn’t invented to confiscate gold. Central Banks are not stealing your money to control you. The derivatives market serves legitimate purposes for legitimate people. Crop producers use futures contracts to provide price security. Companies use swaps to guarantee foreign exchange rates. Do parties use derivatives as highly speculative gambling divorced from reality? Sure. The same is done with stocks. 

[BurntEyes 6038]

8 hours ago, hayden_horn said:

lulz at you johnnie come lately motherfuckers. late 90s cable access ftw. alex went down to dps with a camera and it was glorious. then puppetose.

Pffft. Early 90s they shot in the same building as Raw Time hosted by Dave who prompted local bands, had them perform on his show and had a relationship with several live music venues and got the ones he liked shows on 6th. Cichlid was a curious fish obsessed guy who had a show with what I recall was a smoking hot female co-host and Alex was doing his shtick there too.

Yeah, 1990s Austin Public Access could be it's own thread, probably is somewhere.

Edit - found this list on Reddit

Show With No Name

The Reel Deal

Alex Jones (when he was just a crazy local yelling about fingerprint scanners at the sheriff's office)

The Atheist Experience

Ol Bitty/Clown Time

Magic Video

Capzeyez

Kevin Booth's random videos

What's On Your Mind w/ Granny

Perry Logan

Sail Hatan

Mystic Kids Fun Time

 

Catharsis

https://youtu.be/FjuqkpAMjLk?si=NDLA3AAvP4ZtKsbr

/thread derail

Edited March 23 by BurntEyes

[MonkeyDoughnut 10362]

Really tough listen, the guy is beyond full of himself.

His conspiracy theories are off the charts. He's given way to much credit on long term calculating plotting being done vs byproducts of people who are just looking to maximize their immediate gain.

[immamac 43236]

Man. Some of you sure do live in a world of delusion I guess. The equities market totally makes sense, so does the derivatives market. Nothing to see here. Completely grounded in reality in terms of real GDP, real cash on hand and real productivity. 

I don’t agree with the premise that there is some nefarious force at play here, but I do agree that the system is set up to fail catastrophically and penalize far more than just its pure participants which is the issue.

9 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

It is pure anti-Fed goldbug conspiracy nonsense. The Fed wasn’t invented to confiscate gold. Central Banks are not stealing your money to control you. The derivatives market serves legitimate purposes for legitimate people. Crop producers use futures contracts to provide price security. Companies use swaps to guarantee foreign exchange rates. Do parties use derivatives as highly speculative gambling divorced from reality? Sure. The same is done with stocks. 

Your last 3 sentences are literally the problem. It’s a snowball of insanity. No one is saying a derivatives market is bad. The thesis is that the current rules for the current global derivatives market are no longer serving the purpose for derivatives, but rather a rampant circular wealth vacuum scheme that isn’t supported by actual assets or real property. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

15 hours ago, immamac said:

Your last 3 sentences are literally the problem. It’s a snowball of insanity. No one is saying a derivatives market is bad. The thesis is that the current rules for the current global derivatives market are no longer serving the purpose for derivatives, but rather a rampant circular wealth vacuum scheme that isn’t supported by actual assets or real property. 

The thesis is simple idiocy deep fried in conspiracy. People speculate in the derivatives and stock market. No way! I don’t know why you’re trying to gleam kernels of truth from conspiracy theories. 

[Captainant 27853]

30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The thesis is simple idiocy deep fried in conspiracy. People speculate in the derivatives and stock market. No way! I don’t know why you’re trying to gleam kernels of truth from conspiracy theories. 

It's moreso that stock values are driven by the speculation, and not the stock driving the speculation. It's the tail wagging the dog, driven largely by institutions doing insane shit like shorting well over 100% of the shares that even exist for a company for extended periods of time to influence market pricing. 

It's not a conspiracy theory, it's empirical observation.

We don't play the same game as they do. Were the chips on the table

[Neonmoon 38130]

The empirical observation is there is speculation in the markets. The conspiracy theory is the central bank or cabal is doing so to subjugate humanity or steal your money. 

I get it. Wall Street is bad. If there is a vote for more regulation, I’d support it, but everyone is playing the same game, some are just more actively participating. 

[Nivek 16994]

The empirical observation is there is speculation in the markets. The conspiracy theory is the central bank or cabal is doing so to subjugate humanity or steal your money. 
I get it. Wall Street is bad. If there is a vote for more regulation, I’d support it, but everyone is playing the same game, some are just more actively participating. 

We are not really playing the same game. The access can be faster based on location, access to more powerful computers with advanced programmed directives or have enough of an investment for an individual to move share price is evidence of that.

And those that trade using RobinHood are not really trading on the open market, their data is being collected and then can be used against them.

[Daddy Fat Sax 53]

On 3/16/2024 at 10:34 PM, immamac said:

Read online or download | The Great Taking

Anyone read this or taken a look at this?

 

Too long, didn't watch

I don't know about subjugating humanity, but yes the system is rigged against the average American in a lot of ways.  

If only there were a way to pull out of the current system? A way to pull your wealth out of the fractional reserve banking that's tied up in all of this. If only. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

CRYPTO!!

[Daddy Fat Sax 53]

10 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

CRYPTO!!

Only Bitcoin, but yes. 

Or continue to be at the mercy of the Fed, big banks and your benevolent Federal government that helps approve all these policies and bailouts. Your choice, anon. 

[babysdaddy 2728]

One trick pony is here doing his one trick pony dance.

[immamac 43236]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The thesis is simple idiocy deep fried in conspiracy. People speculate in the derivatives and stock market. No way! I don’t know why you’re trying to gleam kernels of truth from conspiracy theories. 

They aren’t kernels of truth man. They are legitimate concerns over law and policy that enables and supports completely unintended outcomes and behavior that rewards very very few and creates a situation that is perilous for very many. 

[troph 24914]

On 3/23/2024 at 8:04 AM, BurntEyes said:

Pffft. Early 90s they shot in the same building as Raw Time hosted by Dave who prompted local bands, had them perform on his show and had a relationship with several live music venues and got the ones he liked shows on 6th. Cichlid was a curious fish obsessed guy who had a show with what I recall was a smoking hot female co-host and Alex was doing his shtick there too.

Yeah, 1990s Austin Public Access could be it's own thread, probably is somewhere.

Edit - found this list on Reddit

Show With No Name

The Reel Deal

Alex Jones (when he was just a crazy local yelling about fingerprint scanners at the sheriff's office)

The Atheist Experience

Ol Bitty/Clown Time

Magic Video

Capzeyez

Kevin Booth's random videos

What's On Your Mind w/ Granny

Perry Logan

Sail Hatan

Mystic Kids Fun Time

 

Catharsis

https://youtu.be/FjuqkpAMjLk?si=NDLA3AAvP4ZtKsbr

/thread derail

Peak OG Austin why keep Austin weird was started. 

[Nivek 16994]

28 minutes ago, immamac said:

They aren’t kernels of truth man. They are legitimate concerns over law and policy that enables and supports completely unintended outcomes and behavior that rewards very very few and creates a situation that is perilous for very many. 

[immamac 43236]

Just now, Nivek said:

It’s a global issue now including the EU which is part of the alarm. 

I think people are having a hard time with this guy because he’s being a bit overdramatic on the outcome of this and that there is clear nefarious intent here, but I think it’s not so much that but people who are just operating in their own self interest and unaware or not giving a shit about how some of the unintended consequences play out because it’s not their problem. 

 

[Hagbard Celine 10938]

i read the intro

what is the endgame?

don't have a mortgage?

[Nivek 16994]

59 minutes ago, immamac said:

It’s a global issue now including the EU which is part of the alarm. 

I think people are having a hard time with this guy because he’s being a bit overdramatic on the outcome of this and that there is clear nefarious intent here, but I think it’s not so much that but people who are just operating in their own self interest and unaware or not giving a shit about how some of the unintended consequences play out because it’s not their problem. 

 

That we are in a modern gilded age is not really something that is surprising and politically this has been known about for quite some time.  The economic booms have largely gone to single classes of individuals while wages were relatively stagnant and the middle class shrunk.   I didn't exactly study economics, but when I could see that health care, housing, and transportation costs were on the rise and wages were the same, even I knew this was unsustainable.  Fast forward 20+ years and it continues.  The Citizens' United ruling only codified the oligarchy into existence, but it was always present.  

[immamac 43236]

52 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i read the intro

what is the endgame?

don't have a mortgage?

Essentially it makes not super prepper activity of prepping a serious consideration.

Make sure you have a general food supply, unencumbered mortgage and as little debt as possible and some semblance of self reliance on the land you own so you can last through the reboot. 

I would consider this all just not gonna happen if we successfully navigate this election and wrap up the Russia and china stuff in the next year or so, outside of that something has to give because it’s currently completely unsustainable. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10362]

4 hours ago, Nivek said:

We are not really playing the same game. The access can be faster based on location, access to more powerful computers with advanced programmed directives or have enough of an investment for an individual to move share price is evidence of that.

And those that trade using RobinHood are not really trading on the open market, their data is being collected and then can be used against them.

While trading the market this is very true, but if "investing" in the market does it really matter much?

[Gatorubet 30324]

I have a pretty sound survival plan.

I have a recent copy of a prepper real estate sales magazine.  I have weapons and enough gas and food to go to drive to one of those. Very cost efficient. 

[Royalfan5 2355]

26 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I have a pretty sound survival plan.

I have a recent copy of a prepper real estate sales magazine.  I have weapons and enough gas and food to go to drive to one of those. Very cost efficient. 

If shit really falls apart, what does putting a bunch of effort into surviving get me? Probably not a goddamn thing 

[Gatorubet 30324]

Just now, Royalfan5 said:

If shit really falls apart, what does putting a bunch of effort into surviving get me? Probably not a goddamn thing 

That is a solid take. I once worked for a judge who was a former WWII marine in the South Pacific. The subject came up about nuclear war and he said, “I hope the first goddamn bomb drops directly on my head…Who wants to scrounge around for survival in that kind of world? ”

[Incredulity 11683]

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

If shit really falls apart, what does putting a bunch of effort into surviving get me? Probably not a goddamn thing 

If a black swan event worse than 20-21 occurs I hope to go out in the first wave.

i really, really like pushing a button to get coffee and having the subsequent bowel event taken away with the press of a lever.

Bartering gold coins with the local warlord for survival has zero attraction.

[Neonmoon 38130]

7 hours ago, immamac said:

They aren’t kernels of truth man. They are legitimate concerns over law and policy that enables and supports completely unintended outcomes and behavior that rewards very very few and creates a situation that is perilous for very many. 

What law or policy are you concerned about? What about derivatives rewards the very few? Do you believe there is a concerted effort to take everyone’s money?

[immamac 43236]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

If a black swan event worse than 20-21 occurs I hope to go out in the first wave.

i really, really like pushing a button to get coffee and having the subsequent bowel event taken away with the press of a lever.

Bartering gold coins with the local warlord for survival has zero attraction.

We won’t go that far backwards without a catastrophic physical event (War/bombs/meteor strike). A financial catastrophic event would just make it very hard to not be beholden to those with critical infrastructure to provide without being indebted to them. It happened in the early 1930s. It can and likely will happen again. 

[elfenix 34341]

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

That is a solid take. I once worked for a judge who was a former WWII marine in the South Pacific. The subject came up about nuclear war and he said, “I hope the first goddamn bomb drops directly on my head…Who wants to scrounge around for survival in that kind of world? ”

[Incredulity 11683]

18 minutes ago, immamac said:

We won’t go that far backwards without a catastrophic physical event (War/bombs/meteor strike). A financial catastrophic event would just make it very hard to not be beholden to those with critical infrastructure to provide without being indebted to them. It happened in the early 1930s. It can and likely will happen again. 

I’d generally be ok with not having much, regression to pre-industrial revolution can go on without me.

 

”ok” being I don’t need to shed this mortal coil

 

[immamac 43236]

@Neonmoon

1) see below

2) Brokerages, institutional investors and Banks specifically

3) No, I diverge from his nefarious source of this and chalk it up to extreme complexity and a tolerance for systemic risk that non-participants get to judge for the participants. I think that corporate entities will act in the best interest for the corporation to the extent of the law, the law is set up to benefit a small set of banks and institutions. I am not a conspiracy theorist, and don’t think they are trying to take everyone’s shit, they just know they can and have shown in the past that they will (Lehman bros and JPM)

Starts here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/ucc/8/8-511

in depth analysis of the systemic risk here: 

you can also DRS your shares, but this protection is cumbersome and not used by the majority of brokerages because they can’t lend your shares out however the fuck they want.

https://www.sec.gov/about/reports-publications/investor-publications/holding-your-securities-get-the-facts

https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/know-the-facts-direct-registered-shares
 

The issue is that there is now precedent to actually have this happen, but in a bankruptcy situation the only entity protected is the broker. https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/commoditiesderivativesstock-exchanges/36408/the-effect-of-the-new-bankruptcy-code-on-safe-harbor-transactions

so the issue isn’t that these things are kind of possible it’s that we are so far away from the core purpose of derivatives to where now if something on a chain reaction of derivatives goes bad then it’s going to fuck everything and cause a meltdown of a liquidity crisis because there isn’t actually enough money in the derivatives contract backing bodies. 

https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/financials/2023/DTCC-Annual-Financial-Statements-2022-and-2021.pdf

70B+ in liabilities and only 3.5B in assets backing it. So in the event that something fucks up or things move fast this just becomes insolvent. When this becomes insolvent then all the collateral involved starts a chain reaction because the banks aren’t going to allow themselves to be fucked. They will go after the brokerages who lent out the shares and anything not DRS will get scooped in the collapse. 

the paranoia isn’t about what causes this event, but rather that we are now so fucking crazy when it comes to what’s going on with derivatives and a stressful financial event. (See SVB run and all the treasuries which have trillions in paper losses maturing). 

basically if we had a more sane derivatives market and more transparency into wtf is actually going on this would probably not be a concern, instead there’s a pretty solid chance that if some fucks up it doesn’t mean all liquidity is halted (market stop trading etc) and government bailouts (at this scale, likely not possible without causing hyperinflation) 

individually there are ways to deal with these things, but all together a chain reaction protects only the banks and is irrelevant to those unencumbered by the banks. Right now there is too much from a derivative and swap basis out there to settle in any reasonable way with the existing liquidity in the market.

[Gatorubet 30324]

3 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Bartering gold coins with the local warlord for survival has zero attraction.

<..has gold coins..>