The Kids (Aren't) Alright - World Happiness Report

[Don Johnson 4752]

On 5/19/2024 at 4:01 AM, Thatguy said:

 

 

Speaking from my experience with my kid, in this era you have to spend money on your kid just to find out if your kid even has the chops to play at the high school level much less college. Where we live all the kids on the school teams play some sort of club/select/aau ball. My kid barely made the 7th grade b team. Had we just thrown our hands in the air and not kept going with instructions and lessons she wouldn't be where she is.

 

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Ultimately, that's a really important takeaway.  Shit, we paid for private coaching for our son (Wylie Campbell is a great dude, and remains a good friend to us and our son) to improve his game so that he could keep doing something that he really loved.  If that had elevated to the level of "he's good enough to be recruited," cool - there's some payoff.  But even if all it accomplished was "he got to keep doing something he loved, and have great experiences and lessons that will stick with him," it was worthwhile.

There are definitely other reasons to participate in elite level sports, get private coaching, etc., other than "this is an investment to get into college."  So long as those remain true, and "we have to do this so he/she will get recruited" isn't the ONLY reason you're investing that time and money, go for it.

As a father of 3 boys between 11-15, this is something I have learned.  I used to be snarky about youth sports, and how could people possibly pay this or that.  Give up that weekend, etc.  They're never going to be in the big leagues!

Then you realize that, at many schools, football is about the only sport you can just sign up and be on the team no mater.  My kids are decent athletes and we've sweated baseball, soccer, tennis and basketball tryouts for years now.  

For many, its just doing what you need to do to play JV sports.  And if they want to keep doing it in HS, awesome.  And if God reaches down and touches their right arm and give them the ability to throw 95+, awesome too.  But very few are banking on that to happen.

HS coaches still develop players, but most decent programs expect to (on developmental scale of 1-10) take 7's and get them to 10, not take 2's and get them to 7's.  Unless you are an elite raw athlete, if you expect to play baseball, basketball, soccer, or many others, you need to be playing it at more than a casual level by the time you're 12-13.  That's obviously not everyone or every school, but in my experience, the majority.

[Don Johnson 4752]

2 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

 

As a father of 3 boys between 11-15, this is something I have learned.  I used to be snarky about youth sports, and how could people possibly pay this or that.  Give up that weekend, etc.  They're never going to be in the big leagues!

Then you realize that, at many schools, football is about the only sport you can just sign up and be on the team no mater.  My kids are decent athletes and we've sweated baseball, soccer, tennis and basketball tryouts for years now.  

For many, its just doing what you need to do to play JV sports.  And if they want to keep doing it in HS, awesome.  And if God reaches down and touches their right arm and give them the ability to throw 95+, awesome too.  But very few are banking on that to happen.

HS coaches still develop players, but most decent programs expect to (on developmental scale of 1-10) take 7's and get them to 10, not take 2's and get them to 7's.  Unless you are an elite raw athlete, if you expect to play baseball, basketball, soccer, or many others, you need to be playing it at more than a casual level by the time you're 12-13.  That's obviously not everyone or every school, but in my experience, the majority.

To add to this, they usually love it.  My 11 year old told me last night he wishes he had baseball practice every night.  Thank god for me, he doesn't.  Once they lose interest or stop wanting to go to every single practice, we sit down and have a talk about the time and money dedicated and usually make the decision to stop playing that particular sport.  Baseball ended with both of my oldest at 12.  I definitely do not see those years as a waste though.  Some of the best times of all of our lives.

[52-80 19147]

On 5/13/2024 at 10:37 PM, Brisketexan said:

A big problem is that the rising tide of the last 40+ years hasn't lifted all boats in proportion.  The worker is making $50k...and has seen his real wages stagnate as productivity has shot up. 
 

this is categorically false. it can be shown in a million measurements over any time frame that wealth and wages in real terms have increased for factory workers, restaurant workers, non-supervisory workers, low percentile earning workers, ad infinitum. and ive shown it here repeatedly.

i dont know why people keep persisting this myth about the common worker….but the answer is embedded in this graphic, from todays Federal Reserve publication of a survey of 11,000 people across all economic statuses:

“Everybody else is suffering except for me”. Im no psychologist but uh…is this Messiah Complex or something?

[Samson's Wig 3190]

7 minutes ago, F250 said:

I'm not following. What behavior?

The behavior YGIFS was discussing of parents living through their kids and pushing them beyond the point of what they have any interest in.  Obviously, it's not every sports parent, but it's a lot of them.  If you know your kid has no shot at excelling at a sport, and they're not even passionate about it, and you still act like a maniac spending countless dollars and time pushing it on them rather than helping them figure out what they're actually good at, that's even worse than a parent harboring delusions of scholarships and future professional contracts.   The latter is just stupid, but the former is knowingly doing their kid a disservice. 

[52-80 19147]

“All of your kids will go pro in something other than sports”

[CHIEF 5075]

14 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

The behavior YGIFS was discussing of parents living through their kids and pushing them beyond the point of what they have any interest in.  Obviously, it's not every sports parent, but it's a lot of them.  If you know your kid has no shot at excelling at a sport, and they're not even passionate about it, and you still act like a maniac spending countless dollars and time pushing it on them rather than helping them figure out what they're actually good at, that's even worse than a parent harboring delusions of scholarships and future professional contracts.   The latter is just stupid, but the former is knowingly doing their kid a disservice. 

My son never had good enough vision for baseball, was too slow for football, or track. We pivoted to hunting, fishing, restoring cars, and scuba diving. Those are still his passions and what he loves to do to this day. His new passion is learning to make World-class bbq and boil crawfish for people's parties on the weekend. 

We never tried to pigeonhole him into any particular sport or activity. Just present activities that he was free to choose to enjoy, or he can take it or leave it. The decision was always his on what he wanted to do with his spare time.

CHIEF

[F250 28764]

22 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

The behavior YGIFS was discussing of parents living through their kids and pushing them beyond the point of what they have any interest in.  Obviously, it's not every sports parent, but it's a lot of them.  If you know your kid has no shot at excelling at a sport, and they're not even passionate about it, and you still act like a maniac spending countless dollars and time pushing it on them rather than helping them figure out what they're actually good at, that's even worse than a parent harboring delusions of scholarships and future professional contracts.   The latter is just stupid, but the former is knowingly doing their kid a disservice. 

In my experience, this is not very common. You don't really see this type of behavior beyond the little kid levels. There is a reason youth sports participation drops off after 12 years old and it's usually a lack of interest by the kid.

I would also add that I think club sports under 12 is ridiculous. Most of the insane parental behavior takes place at the little kid levels not teen.

[BabaYaga 15286]

6 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

their quads were as wide as my waists

[F250 28764]

32 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

My son never had good enough vision for baseball, was too slow for football, or track. We pivoted to hunting, fishing, restoring cars, and scuba diving. Those are still his passions and what he loves to do to this day. His new passion is learning to make World-class bbq and boil crawfish for people's parties on the weekend. 

We never tried to pigeonhole him into any particular sport or activity. Just present activities that he was free to choose to enjoy, or he can take it or leave it. The decision was always his on what he wanted to do with his spare time.

CHIEF

There is definitely a need to balance guidance and freedom for one's kids. Guidance shouldn't be very restrictive and there needs to be room for kids to explore to discover their own passions outside of their parents interests.

One of my kid's developed a passion for music and we were not a musical family. But when he requested it, I paid for lessons and purchased instruments and accessories. I don't know a damn thing about music but I supported him the best I could which came down to financial support and just being interested in his musical efforts.

 

[Brisketexan 105057]

There is definitely a need to balance guidance and freedom for one's kids. Guidance shouldn't be very restrictive and there needs to be room for kids to explore to discover their own passions outside of their parents interests.
One of my kid's developed a passion for music and we were not a musical family. But when he requested it, I paid for lessons and purchased instruments and accessories. I don't know a damn thing about music but I supported him the best I could which came down to financial support and just being interested in his musical efforts.
 

….and now he’s having to fight off the chicks.

[YGIFS 19449]

Yeah, the size thing is just a fact of athletics.  You just have to have it to play high level VB, Hoops, etc.  You can get by just on grit and work to play collegiate soccer, cross country, swim, softball, rowing/crew, etc.  Track and tennis and golf are not so much size, but you just gotta be insanely and naturally talented.  and then i guess shooting, meat judging, and riding horses are in there somewhere.  Or you can just shoot the horse and judge its meat.  I dunno how that shit works.  

But remember this young men.  There are no LaCrosse groupies.  There aren't girls that care if you get a D-II offer to play golf at directional state University.  But you learn the guitar or drums and write some music and get some gigs while you're in college, the pussy just comes out of the woodwork.  Remember that fellas.  And brush up on finance and biology while you're at it.  

[BabaYaga 15286]

5 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Or you can just shoot the horse and judge its meat.

Uh......Phrasing......

[Don Johnson 4752]

16 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

There are no LaCrosse groupies.  

That's a fantastic lie.

[YGIFS 19449]

12 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Uh......Phrasing......

Ha.  It could be a Philly you know.  Sickie.  

1 minute ago, Don Johnson said:

That's a fantastic lie.

I dunno, I guess theres a couple of guys at Duke and Johns Hopkins getting some ass due to the sport.  But I'm not white enough to have ever played.  But it's a big sport at our ISD and the kids of my friends that play are also under the impression they're doing to Georgetown on scholarship to play and kinda act like d-bags.  Maybe it works for 'em, I dunno.  

For 100 years, football and being in a band.  Those are how you get ass.  Also, meat judging.  

[F250 28764]

32 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

….and now he’s having to fight off the chicks.

You would be surprised by how a not very good H.S. garage band doing terrible Green Day tributes brings in the ladies.

[Brisketexan 105057]

You would be surprised by how a not very good H.S. garage band doing terrible Green Day tributes brings in the ladies.

I actually would not. Even shitty rock bands get chicks. It’s sorcery.

[F250 28764]

I should also mention that when you are Gen-X and drinking beer on a Sunday afternoon don't bother yelling "Play some Skynyrd!" at the Gen-Z band. They just don't get it.

[YGIFS 19449]

Do dudes that just play EDM/ipods/laptop kinda music......are they still pulling trim?  

I remember taking up the Saxophone because of Rob Lowe looking so cool in "Saint Elmo's Fire."  Got pretty good at it but it not bring in the ass I thought it would because I forgot he looks like Rob Lowe, and I look like me.  Guitar was fun, but I never got that great at it and finished up with drums in my teens and 20's.  I think the last piece of ass I closed from music was this house party there the dad had this whole studio setup and was outta town.  And this dude started playing guitar (and another guy on bass) 'Honky Tonk Women' by the Stones and I got on the drum kit and just nailed it.  And KK and I hung out all weekend and it was quite pleasant.  

If I were a young man today, I would get great an instrument toot sweet and get in a band and play some free shows.  Because we are coming to the end of properly played live music.  In 15 years time, there'll be no more instrument-driven rock.  There'll still be live music festivals and shit but a girl will look at a guy playing a fender and think, "That's so old-timey and creepy.  Whatever..."  The music will endure, but the way it's delivered is on its way out the door.  Sadly.  Used to also impress me how much ass my standup comic friends could pull.  But they're all older and married now.  And then it became a thing where if you were a Chef, you could pull ass (could still be the case).  Kyle Kinane took that whole dynamic of rock star/comic/chef and has a bit about how Chefs are the new 'Bad Boys' and getting ass because they have a whisk tattoo and featured in their local cultural magazine, "is this the new face of pasta primavera."  

I can't find the clip, but there's a great interview with Geddy Lee and Alex Lifeson of Rush.  And they talk about the "Rush Contraditcion."  Incredibly successful band, insanely talented, rich as hell, but they joked that for some reason they just never got groupies or women interested in them.  They'd come to the shows and come backstage and get a hug and a beer, but almost no sex.  Here they were, one of the biggest bands of the 1970's and 1980's, and meanwhile fucking Def Leppard and Motley Crue are judging blowjob contests and a legit all-time rock band like Rush can't get a bra thrown at 'em.  I think even Kenny G got a threesome at some point.

[locodos 5387]

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

I should also mention that when you are Gen-X and drinking beer on a Sunday afternoon don't bother yelling "Play some Skynyrd!" at the Gen-Z band. They just don't get it.

Don't be a hater.  Plenty of good Genz bands.  You just haven't seen them because you're old.

 

Random example... This band cranks in concert.  I went to see a few different groups, but these guys went HARD.  Great show, tons of talent in the crowd too.  Also I felt old AF... as the kids say.

Didn't play any Skynard, but did play a cover of the The Damned.

[immamac 42835]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

this is categorically false. it can be shown in a million measurements over any time frame that wealth and wages in real terms have increased for factory workers, restaurant workers, non-supervisory workers, low percentile earning workers, ad infinitum. and ive shown it here repeatedly.

i dont know why people keep persisting this myth about the common worker….but the answer is embedded in this graphic, from todays Federal Reserve publication of a survey of 11,000 people across all economic statuses:

“Everybody else is suffering except for me”. Im no psychologist but uh…is this Messiah Complex or something?

So here's the thing. Wages going up but productivity staying flat or going down is pretty obvious to everyone involved. 

Look at the rise of grift in crypto nft and now AI. It's crazy and yet we have little to no real productivity gain because of these things. 

[Bevo 13560]

45 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Ha.  It could be a Philly you know.  Sickie.

[52-80 19147]

24 minutes ago, immamac said:

Look at the rise of grift in crypto nft and now AI. It's crazy and yet we have little to no real productivity gain because of these things. 

Your issue then is about how people in the market deploy their labor/productivity, not the underlying economic conditions. 

That talented software engineers are spending their time writing blockchain apps and people are throwing cash at monkey jpegs tell me its a luxury afforded by having good economic conditions. 

If you could code but were financially destitute, you’d work on improving ad-targeting for google to get that sweet steady W2. 

[YGIFS 19449]

On 5/16/2024 at 3:14 PM, tbone_ said:

Very millennial to not know what your generation was called.

I thought if I'm born in 1976, that makes me a younger GenX'er, no?  My point was that millennials aren'y really these young sassy folks anymore.  They certainly grew up differently than most of us, but I mean---they're coming up on their mid-40's.  They're not these unmannered kids anymore with loud music and screen addictions.  They're the guy right next to you at work going to pick up his kid from junior varsity tennis practice in a few minutes.  

Anyway, I meant Filly, not Philly.  But either way, it's a very handsome sportswatch.  I have the ladies version and wear it frequently to play golf.  

[Brisketexan 105057]

46 minutes ago, F250 said:

I should also mention that when you are Gen-X and drinking beer on a Sunday afternoon don't bother yelling "Play some Skynyrd!" at the Gen-Z band. They just don't get it.

Dude.....are you me?

Also, I had a BRIEF moment in a singing group.  I'm a bass.  I mean, all the way at the bottom octaves bass.  Had NO idea that would be a thing.  First time I sang a solo bass line of a song in front of a crowd, and all the girls screamed with delight....I was 1) stunned, and 2) ROYALLY pissed off I hadn't figured out that I could sing when I was younger and it would have helped me out more in that department.

My wife doesn't even give a shit about my singing voice, she just rolls her eyes when I get to singing with my friends and whatnot.  Sigh.

[Captainant 27625]

8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

That talented software engineers are spending their time writing blockchain apps and people are throwing cash at monkey jpegs tell me its a luxury afforded by having good economic conditions. 

TIL rampant fraud is ACKSHUALLY a good thing

 

9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

If you could code but were financially destitute, you’d work on improving ad-targeting for google to get that sweet steady W2. 

Tell me you don't know how software development works without telling me. Sorry there's no FRED chart for you to outsource your thinking to, slugger. 

[immamac 42835]

22 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Your issue then is about how people in the market deploy their labor/productivity, not the underlying economic conditions. 

That talented software engineers are spending their time writing blockchain apps and people are throwing cash at monkey jpegs tell me its a luxury afforded by having good economic conditions. 

If you could code but were financially destitute, you’d work on improving ad-targeting for google to get that sweet steady W2. 

You are making my exact point for me. It's made up productivity on a sham economy. Peoples personal finance is fine because they are part of the grift but they know it's a grift nonetheless. 

12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

TIL rampant fraud is ACKSHUALLY a good thing

 

Tell me you don't know how software development works without telling me. Sorry there's no FRED chart for you to outsource your thinking to, slugger. 

The issue isn't necessarily rampant fraud as much as it is a rampant debt and PE fueled ponzi scheme. 

[Captainant 27625]

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

The issue isn't necessarily rampant fraud as much as it is a rampant debt and PE fueled ponzi scheme. 

Call me old fashioned, but a ponzi scheme is fraud in my book. And using that to generate debt that you intend to default on and leave them with worthless collateral is exactly rampant fraud. That's the same private equity move too that's used to hostilely take over a company, load it with debt, and then scamper off with the cash while the company goes bankrupt and the debt becomes worthless or pennies on the dollar 

[immamac 42835]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Call me old fashioned, but a ponzi scheme is fraud in my book. And using that to generate debt that you intend to default on and leave them with worthless collateral is exactly rampant fraud. That's the same private equity move too that's used to hostilely take over a company, load it with debt, and then scamper off with the cash while the company goes bankrupt and the debt becomes worthless or pennies on the dollar 

The best timeline. 

[52-80 19147]

10 hours ago, immamac said:

You are making my exact point for me. It's made up productivity on a sham economy. Peoples personal finance is fine because they are part of the grift but they know it's a grift nonetheless. 

The issue isn't necessarily rampant fraud as much as it is a rampant debt and PE fueled ponzi scheme. 

The entire 'capitalization' of the cryptosphere is smaller than 1 company in the SPX.  It is a mere byproduct of financial surplus.

If you want to say that the SPX itself is overvalued, in big part due to excessive liquidity, thanks to the Fed's directionally-bad overaccomodation of the Govt's appetite for debt spending.... hey, nice to see you in the party; keg's in the back.

If you want to say people in aggregate are poor, we know that's factually wrong. 

If you want to say crypto is this malignant thing that should be eradicated because its so morally wrong what people do with their disposable money -- which I dont think you are saying -- leave it to the authoritarian church ladies to preach that apocalyptism.  Few as they are, theres enough of their hysteria for one board.

[Captainant 27625]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

If you want to say people in aggregate are poor, we know that's factually wrong. 

If you want to hide behind statistics then sure, the average American is doing great on paper. But the reality is that the average is basically in a different solar system of earning from the median wage, often 50% greater but up to 2-2.5x greater depending on the inequity that exists in that state. 

Now don't go and get it twisted and put words in my mouth that I'm somehow advocating for everyone to earn the same thing no matter what work they do. But you are completely decoupled from objective reality from whatever board room you exist in or under. You can keep telling people the sky is purple, but it doesn't make it true. 

The money is out there for wage earners to live a dignified life, but it's usually either fraudulently stolen from their wages and passed onto shareholders or it's just plain withheld and the workers are kept on a wage slave earning scale that limits their ability to seek new jobs for fear of missing a paycheck and going under. 

 

The run of the mill American is doing pretty poorly if they don't already own a house and a vacation house and have a stock portfolio. The ladder has been pulled up for a long, long time. And no amount of you pissing on my leg and saying it's raining is gonna change that 

[Anastasis 23458]

51 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If you want to hide behind statistics then sure, the average American is doing great on paper. But the reality is that the average is basically in a different solar system of earning from the median wage, often 50% greater but up to 2-2.5x greater depending on the inequity that exists in that state. 

This doesn’t sound right. Link?

[Captainant 27625]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

This doesn’t sound right. Link?

edit: realized these links were for 2023, so this is decent comparison if you don't mind opening two tabs. Once my newborn is down for a nap I could make a table if you'd like

http://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=ow_c&item_in=00-0000&ct=S09

http://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=bea&item_in=0035&ct=S09

 

Texas in particular is pretty bad. $45,970 median and $73,069 average. 

Edited May 22 by Captainant

[SydneyCarton 48054]

19 hours ago, 52-80 said:

this is categorically false. it can be shown in a million measurements over any time frame that wealth and wages in real terms have increased for factory workers, restaurant workers, non-supervisory workers, low percentile earning workers, ad infinitum. and ive shown it here repeatedly.

i dont know why people keep persisting this myth about the common worker….but the answer is embedded in this graphic, from todays Federal Reserve publication of a survey of 11,000 people across all economic statuses:

“Everybody else is suffering except for me”. Im no psychologist but uh…is this Messiah Complex or something?

This graph tells a story, but I'm not sure it tells the story you think. But first, help me clarify something.

Assessment of own financial self-being, well, that's just asking people what they think in regards to each of those lines? So it's basically something from fucking Survey Monkey, right?

I'm not a math guy, but I know a little something about people and how they work. When asked how people are doing, pride and ego very often insist that they say "We're doing fine" becuase people are fucking embarrassed to say they're poor, or struggling, or doing badly. Which is why you see your top line consistently over 70% "Yeah, my finances are doing ok!" meanwhile credit card debt is at record high, fewer people own homes, etc. 

Meanwhile, you have the next two lines. Which basically say the local and national economy is completely in the fucking shitty, despite all these motherfuckers apparently doing Just Fine with their own finances, all around them. And ignoring the fact that by most economic metrics, as well as the stock market, things have been going GREAT since 2020. So the returns are good, their finances are ok, and yet everything sucks, eh?

TL;DNR: Posting a Self Assessment of how peopel "feel" isn't really any kind of supporting fact or data, I don't care if it came from the Federal Reserve, it might as well be a "Is he really into me?" quiz from the pages of a fucking Cosmo magazine. The wide disparity between the first line and the last two lines is clear evidence something is amiss in the survey. My guess? Humans are the flaw. 

Edited May 22 by SydneyCarton

[immamac 42835]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

The entire 'capitalization' of the cryptosphere is smaller than 1 company in the SPX.  It is a mere byproduct of financial surplus.

If you want to say that the SPX itself is overvalued, in big part due to excessive liquidity, thanks to the Fed's directionally-bad overaccomodation of the Govt's appetite for debt spending.... hey, nice to see you in the party; keg's in the back.

If you want to say people in aggregate are poor, we know that's factually wrong. 

If you want to say crypto is this malignant thing that should be eradicated because its so morally wrong what people do with their disposable money -- which I dont think you are saying -- leave it to the authoritarian church ladies to preach that apocalyptism.  Few as they are, theres enough of their hysteria for one board.

Crypto is 2.5T SPX as a whole is 44T and without the top 7 it's more like 36T. It's not a rounding error. It's smaller than some of the largest companies on earth, but it's bigger than 100 of the 500 biggest companies on earth in aggregate as well. 

We are on the same page on point 2 

I'm saying the opposite. I'm saying people aren't poor and they know that the economy is still a sham because the work they are doing isn't actually productive or valuable. People aren't quitting their jobs because they aren't gonna risk not having an income (except people like me who want to actually innovate) 

Everyone knows the whole economy is this debt inflated scam market built on quantitative easing and low interest rates that's all going to come crumbling down in the inevitable cash crunch or hyperinflation that is looming. 

Everyone knows what we are doing is not sustainable. We either need to become disciplined and shrink the economy intentionally to gracefully deleverage and start a new debt cycle or we need to turn the money machine back on and cause hyperinflation. We can't keep doing what we are doing today for more than another 6 months maybe 12 months tops. 

[Nivek 16917]

Thatguy,
that’s awesome for your daughter.  And surely your must realize how unique she is to be able to attend a quality institution and be able to play high level athletics.  
 
but 95% of sports parents don’t accept that the same opportunity won’t be there for their child.  
 
Every athlete will be told sometime between 18-38 that their time in organized, competitive play is over.  But knowledge and education and the arts last forever.  Seems like you get that you’d be shocked how few other parents do. 

Quite frankly, I think I can identify kids who will do well in sports already. Those kids who practice and ask for more and are focused throughout the game. Not necessarily emotional, but those who have an innate desire to get better.

[52-80 19147]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Assessment of own financial self-being, well, that's just asking people what they think in regards to each of those lines? So it's basically something from fucking Survey Monkey, right?

I'm not a math guy, but I know a little something about people and how they work. When asked how people are doing, pride and ego very often insist that they say "We're doing fine" becuase people are fucking embarrassed to say they're poor, or struggling, or doing badly. Which is why you see your top line consistently over 70% "Yeah, my finances are doing ok!" meanwhile credit card debt is at record high, fewer people own homes, etc. 

Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%.

You dont need to be a math guy to find that.

 

 

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Dont drink the doomerjuice. 

[YGIFS 19449]

22 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Quite frankly, I think I can identify kids who will do well in sports already. Those kids who practice and ask for more and are focused throughout the game. Not necessarily emotional, but those who have an innate desire to get better.

Timmy, do you like to hang around the gymnasium?  /CaptOveur

[SydneyCarton 48054]

33 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%.

You dont need to be a math guy to find that.

 

 

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Dont drink the doomerjuice. 

Does your homeownership chart take into account coprorate owners or multiple home owners (rich boomers) or people leveraging homes for Air B&B as a career versus dwindling inventory? Becuase if it's just saying that 66% ownerhip of a home existing being stable, well, that's an entirely different dynamic. Those are important distinctions to understand.

Your fed chart about emergency says "Cash or Equivalent." Which means people can cover it with a credit card. Which in general indicates they don't have the fluid cash to cover an emergency, IMO. I read where the links came from. It didn't seem as rosy as that one chart paints it, but I guess that's my interpretation of 25% of people skipping medical visits/treatment becuase they can't afford it:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2022-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2021-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm

I want to respond to this specifically:
 

Quote

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Yes. The very nature of your original chart where "everyone is doing fine finacially" while thinking the US economy is completely FUBARD'D at the local and national level pretty much proves they're lying about something, whether they know it or not. 

And here's another study that turns those numbers on it's head, saying it's 67% that can't cover that $400 expense:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/percentage-americans-unable-cover-400-133058811.html

 

Quote

According to the Fed’s 2022 Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households survey released last Monday, 37% of Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense, up 5% from 32% in 2021 and back to 2019 levels.

So, nearly one in four consumers would have to use credit, turn to family, sell assets or get a loan in order to cover any major unexpected cost. When asked about non-emergency expenses, 18% of Americans said the largest expense they could cover using only their savings was under $100.

The report includes data gathered from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), which has been conducted since 2013 and includes answers from over 11,000 adult respondents. The SHED collects data on how people feel about their family’s finances to help understand the effects of broader economic trends over time.

Both the Fed report and a recent survey by SecureSave, the financial technology platform co-created by Suze Orman to help individuals build employee benefit emergency savings, have inflation as the biggest factor affecting Americans’ finances, but the SecureSave study highlights a drastic decline in personal savings when compared to the Fed survey.

The SecureSave study found a shocking 67% of Americans don’t have enough money saved to cover that same hypothetical unexpected $400 expense. Like the Fed study, a good number of SecureSave survey respondents (54%) found their savings have decreased in 2022.

“This data is a huge red flag for our country’s economy: the overwhelming majority of American households are dangerously unprepared,” said Orman in a press release.

According to the Federal Reserve study, for those not able to cover a $400 emergency expense, 16% said they would use credit cards to pay off the expense over time and 9% stated they would borrow the funds from a friend or family member.

Other answers included selling something (6%), getting a bank loan or line of credit (2%) and taking out a payday loan, deposit advance or overdraft (2%). 13% claimed they would simply not be able to pay off the emergency expense at all.

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Does your homeownership chart take into account corporate owners or multiple home owners (rich boomers) or people leveraging homes for Air B&B as a career versus dwindling inventory? Because if it's just saying that 66% ownership of a home existing being stable, well, that's an entirely different dynamic. Those are important distinctions to understand.

Thank you, was about to question that/point that out.  Also I corrected your spelling errors, cretin!

Edited May 22 by Judge Roybeanbag

[DixonHur 11292]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%.

You dont need to be a math guy to find that.

 

 

“But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

Dont drink the doomerjuice. 

What's the source of these graphs?  I have a few questions.

For example, are the credit numbers adjusted for population?  And is Fig. 21 adjusted for inflation?

Edit, should have read @SydneyCarton's post first.

Edited May 22 by DixonHur

[52-80 19147]

50 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Does your homeownership chart take into account coprorate owners or multiple home owners (rich boomers) or people leveraging homes for Air B&B as a career versus dwindling inventory? Becuase if it's just saying that 66% ownerhip of a home existing being stable, well, that's an entirely different dynamic. Those are important distinctions to understand.

Your fed chart about emergency says "Cash or Equivalent." Which means people can cover it with a credit card. Which in general indicates they don't have the fluid cash to cover an emergency, IMO. I read where the links came from. It didn't seem as rosy as that one chart paints it, but I guess that's my interpretation of 25% of people skipping medical visits/treatment becuase they can't afford it:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2022-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2021-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm

I want to respond to this specifically:
 

Yes. The very nature of your original chart where "everyone is doing fine finacially" while thinking the US economy is completely FUBARD'D at the local and national level pretty much proves they're lying about something, whether they know it or not. 

And here's another study that turns those numbers on it's head, saying it's 67% that can't cover that $400 expense:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/percentage-americans-unable-cover-400-133058811.html

 

 

Census’ home ownership is defined as owner-occupied. Otherwise, every house is owned by someone (private or corporate landlord) and the measure becomes meaningless. No heavy math required. 
see: Tenure

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2021/2021 AHS Definitions.pdf
 

Whatever number of people admitting to skipping medical services could be construed as “bad”. Even 5%. The important thing is to put it in context. The current answer is lower than when the survey first started — post Obamacare, btw

 

The speculation about the statistic masking people using credit card to cover lack of true liquidity: (1) survey specifically conditions on “credit card **paid off** at the next statement and (2) importantly, the criteria were identical in the previous years when they asked the same question.

The occams razor answer as to why there is a divergence between peoples response about their own finances vs external finances as a whole….is they know reasonably/relatively well about their money, and they simply they dont know shit about the economy.  

Thats not even meant to be disparaging. Its well evidenced here and pretty much undisputable. People dont key into anything besides headline prices (mostly of gasoline), and headline news print. More than that, their assessment of economic conditions are primarily a reflection of whether their party is in government. (A hilarious effect replicated in every country/jurisdiction in the world). 
 

**
 

If we simply lean on anecdotes to start this convo, ill end it with one. My own dear wife with a graduate degree in science and whose earnings grew 50% over last few years…if i asked her if the unemployment rate or stock market was up or down YTD she’d have no idea. If I asked her whether the central bank’s policy rates have been rising or dropping she’d look at me like I’m pranking her. If I asked her whether the economy is better or worse, she’d probably say worse….because milk costs more. 

[52-80 19147]

1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

For example, are the credit numbers adjusted for population?  And is Fig. 21 adjusted for inflation?

All the credit number are rates, so already normalized for population. 
 

Fig 21 (hypothetical coverage of emergency spending) is nominal. $400 was ~$550 in 2013….but the current survey found that the response was insensitive to the a $500 question anyway. 

Since 2013, when this question was first asked, median household incomes increased as did consumer prices.To check how changes in price levels affect responses to this question, the 2022 survey asked one-fifth of respondents how they would handle a $500 expense instead. Changing the threshold only altered the share who would pay in cash by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting that shifts in the price level have not materially affected the trend in this series.

[52-80 19147]

6 hours ago, immamac said:

Crypto is 2.5T SPX as a whole is 44T and without the top 7 it's more like 36T. It's not a rounding error. It's smaller than some of the largest companies on earth, but it's bigger than 100 of the 500 biggest companies on earth in aggregate as well. 

Theres some ‘real money’ underpinning the cryptosphere so its not all hot air. FTX bankruptcy administrators recently found enough assets to make all their creditors whole.

Turns out, 70% of the value of the claimants were held in USD/equivalents, so account holders will get back what they were owed AND interest in top (some $1.18:1 in net). The remaining 30% tied to crypto will be paid according to value at time of bankruptcy. So if held in BTC…they would recover in cash what they *had* — but which is a mere 1/3rd of todays market value. 

Pretty amusing end to the story. 

[Thatguy 8671]

On 5/21/2024 at 2:15 PM, BeardIP said:

A few years ago I had the honor (lol) of having to spend weeks in Omaha for a project. Well I just so happened to be staying in the same hotel as some of the Big 12 teams in the NCAA volleyball final four or whatever their tournament is. It was whatever year the SDSU jackrabbits made it because I remember their huge bus being obnoxious (I guess other teams flew). 

Anyways, I was taking an elevator to breakfast one morning and in walks the Nebraska volley ball girls and I immediately knew my niece would never be a D1 volleyball player, despite her earnest desire. Each of these girls dwarfed me, and I’m 6’1. Their quads were as wide as my waists and their wingspans were impressive for any man. I’m talking 6’6 women. This was Nebraska but I’d see the same from Michigan, Baylor, and Tennessee. My assumption from that experience was the blue blood schools are getting the best breeds and stock of girls, and if you aren’t 6 foot+, it might be hard to get a look unless you are like the lone position where it’s okay to be a shortie.

I say all that to say and to your point, unless your girl is going to be tall (and you can generally tell by teens) then you might start focusing your investments (time, mental, physical and monetary) elsewhere. Much like a kid who loves basketball but at 16 is still 5’9.

Certain schools have a certain philosophy in recruiting. Nebraska and the rest of the Big 10 like the biggest girls they can get. Texas likes them to be athletic over tall, though they are pretty tall, just not Big 10 tall. The usual suspects get the pick of the litter, then the rest of the P5 schools go next, and the small conferences go last. Some of the small schools get good players because of the region they are in. Texas is number 1 in prep vball, Cali and Florida are next. So if you are an undersized kid you steer clear of those areas. However, you look at the Northeast and other areas and there are tons of D1 kids under 6ft. You just have to ignore those big schools and leave the great state of Texas and scholarships are waiting.

Us olds think of things the wrong way. We wanted a college experience so we went here blah blah blah. It's 2024. I explained it my daughter like this when her coach got a letter from the coaches at Wake Forest asking about her. I said being a collegiate athlete is extremely difficult. That said, Wake is 65k a year. Where are you going to get a job making 65k while in college?

[Schulz2.0 28951]

3 hours ago, Thatguy said:

Nebraska and the rest of the Big 10 like the biggest girls they can get.

[Bevo 13560]

Teen Rapper Shoots Himself During Livestream

Raleigh Freeman III, a 17-year-old rapper from Suffolk, Virginia, known by his stage name Rylo Huncho, tragically died from an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound while filming a music video on May 16, 2024. The incident left his family, friends, and the community in a state of shock.

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The fatal accident occurred while Freeman was filming content for his social media platforms. A video posted on his Instagram story showed him handling a handgun with a green laser sight and flashlight. The situation turned fatal when Freeman aimed the weapon at his own head, disengaged the safety, and pulled the trigger while uttering, “F*** y’all n****s.” The gun fired, leading to his instant death.

[aggie08 21482]

Uh, that doesn't sound like an accident.