2024 Spring Practice to Fall Camp Thread - Who’s a JAG now?

[TrashMaster G 17557]

2 hours ago, Atticus said:

In the spirit of pedantry, Blue only tweeted he would be entering the portal. He never officially did.

I wouldn't call that pedantry.  I'd call that accuracy. 

Now *that's* how you do pedantry.

[Daichee Bell 2925]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Adding Bailey and Motte to the RB mix really complicates things. 

Look, I’ll take the high ground on this. Motte seems rock solid. Bailey is only gonna hold up if the line is a wall. If there’s any holes in it, he’s screwed.
 

[Bevo 13577]

17 minutes ago, Daichee Bell said:

Look, I’ll take the high ground on this. Motte seems rock solid. Bailey is only gonna hold up if the line is a wall. If there’s any holes in it, he’s screwed.
 

My concern is how he handles being the cynosure.

[Elmer_Fudd 22224]

 

[NoName 16352]

18 hours ago, ousux said:

I somehow missed any discussion of Blue being some sort of team cancer, guilty as charged.

that's not what you said, and you know it

20 hours ago, ousux said:

Blue never had an attitude problem, it was the media (and us to a degree) projecting that sort of thing onto him because he skipped his senior year.

[ousux 5597]

Huh? What did I say..

The first post you quoted was in response to multiple people telling me I was wrong for saying the second thing you quoted without saying why...some really have no idea, they were just going along with CTJ.

Congrats on being late to the party and digging up something that long since passed.

[NoName 16352]

5 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

I felt Blue should've gotten the larger share of opportunities behind Brooks last year and never understood why he didn't.  It seemed to me that Gerry Hamilton went out of his way to downplay Blue's qualities in favor of Baxter. I guess he was getting that view from his contacts on the staff because the imbalance in usage between the 2 last season never made sense to me.  

so just to be clear, you have a situation where a guy quits his HS team, then his his freshman year gets 15 total carries and averages 2.2 yards, then says he's going to enter the portal, then decides not to when Texas tells him goodby, then gets so outclassed by a true freshman RB that he is a very distant third on the depth chart (for comparison Keilan Robinson had 3 rushes vs Bama and X and Mitchell both had the same # of carries as Blue in that game), then ends up only getting snaps for the year because the starter tears his ACL and it moves him to 2nd on the depth chart.

...does Blue have really nice wiggle? absolutely. but his stats are bumped up a ton by the fact he had 26% of his yardage for the year on 2 carries (3% of his total carries) - that is not sustainable nor is it a real perception of his skill.

if you drop the one 69 yard carry it drops his YPC an entire yard per carry (6.12 to 5.14)

this isn't that complex. the imbalance in usage between the two is because of skill and skillset differences between the two. even now, how many articles have been written about how Blue is expected to be the starter for 24 (i haven't seen any) - maybe he takes a huge jump forward, and i hope he does. but the reason for the imbalance is clear if you pay any attention

again, Texas saw fit to start a true Freshman against Alabama, give him the most touches on the team in that game 15 touches (same as Brooks) and give you guy 1 and you are confused as to why the imbalance exists? clearly they and everyone else under the sun think one guy is significantly better than the other.

 

[closetojumping 62728]

58 minutes ago, ousux said:

Huh? What did I say..

The first post you quoted was in response to multiple people telling me I was wrong for saying the second thing you quoted without saying why...some really have no idea, they were just going along with CTJ.

Congrats on being late to the party and digging up something that long since passed.

This forum isn't a thoughtless mob and I don't pull any puppet strings. The reality is that you made an ass of yourself, as you often do, and you have no presence of mind to simply shut the fuck up, take the loss and move on. Thus, numerous people were climbing over each other to mock your bad takes and even worse lack of ethics in the discussion.

Edited April 9 by closetojumping

[NoName 16352]

20 minutes ago, ousux said:

Congrats on being late to the party and digging up something that long since passed.

yeah, i'm really necro'ing a conversation where original post was made 20 hours ago and the most recent post that it spawned was made like 4 hours ago.

if you think me, or anyone else on this god forsaken website, is going to not take the opportunity to call out people for posting dumb shit you really are an idiot.

saying this is peak dumb shit.

Quote

Blue never had an attitude problem, it was the media (and us to a degree) projecting that sort of thing onto him because he skipped his senior year.

also, he didn't skip his senior year. he quit on his team, then tried to come back, then wasn't allowed back. this shit wasn't created whole cloth out of nothing.

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

Interesting that there was no update on DJ Campbell from Sark.

[ousux 5597]

This forum isn't a thoughtless mob and I don't pull any puppet strings. The reality is that you made an ass of yourself, as you often do, and you have presence of mind to simply shut the fuck up, take the loss and move on. Thus, numerous people were climbing over each other to mock your bad takes and even worse lack of ethics in the discussion.

Ethics? Ethics in here? Since when is that a thing. I'm not unaware Blue was 3rd string last year in spite of being rated higher (before skipping his senior year) than JB and true Freshman Baxter named the starter. I thought it was purely on talent eval by Choice/Sark, I missed anything said about his character. Why didn't Sark say bye bye when he announced he was entering the portal? I don't think a RB that wasn't getting the touches he expected threatening to portal was any worse than a starting WR (no names here) doing the same after every season, just maybe a little less publicly?

[ousux 5597]

also, he didn't skip his senior year. he quit on his team, then tried to come back, then wasn't allowed back. this shit wasn't created whole cloth out of nothing.

I'm fully aware of that and thought the same way as everyone else here about that. Guess you missed the part where I watched him being interviewed about it and what he said made sense? That could have been rehearsed bullshit but it sounded sincere. In any case what he did to his HS team doesn't mean anything now, and apparently he hasn't quit on the Longhorns or he would have had the coaching staff helping him pack his bags after announcing he was hitting the portal. Is that an unreasonable assumption?

[Fondren & Main 6718]

[NoName 16352]

17 minutes ago, ousux said:

27 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This forum isn't a thoughtless mob and I don't pull any puppet strings. The reality is that you made an ass of yourself, as you often do, and you have presence of mind to simply shut the fuck up, take the loss and move on. Thus, numerous people were climbing over each other to mock your bad takes and even worse lack of ethics in the discussion.

Ethics? Ethics in here? Since when is that a thing. I'm not unaware Blue was 3rd string last year in spite of being rated higher (before skipping his senior year) than JB and true Freshman Baxter named the starter. I thought it was purely on talent eval by Choice/Sark, I missed anything said about his character. Why didn't Sark say bye bye when he announced he was entering the portal? I don't think a RB that wasn't getting the touches he expected threatening to portal was any worse than a starting WR (no names here) doing the same after every season, just maybe a little less publicly?

just to point out, Baxter was a higher ranked recruit than Blue was. we all know the Brooks story.

Blue topped out at #60 in the composite, Baxter finished at #30

Blue topped out at #31 (95 rating) in the Top247, Baxter finished at #30 (98 rating) and got as high as #26

also if you can't see the difference between Xavier Worthy threatening to enter the portal to get more NIL money (but keeping it all in house) and a RB with 5 career touches letting folks know he was going to enter the portal - i'm not sure what to say.

13 minutes ago, ousux said:

In any case what he did to his HS team doesn't mean anything now, and apparently he hasn't quit on the Longhorns or he would have had the coaching staff helping him pack his bags after announcing he was hitting the portal. Is that an unreasonable assumption?

let's review the tape on this:

• news hits that Blue is expected to enter the portal via IT and other paysites, including TFB
• Blue meets with coaches
• reported that coaches told Blue he could enter the portal but if he did there was no place for him to come back to Texas
• 4 hours after the news hitting Blue posts that he is "locked in"

also if you don't think he has practiced what he was going to say about quitting on his high school team at all over the 3 years since he said it you really are fucking dumb.

 

Edited April 9 by NoName

[ousux 5597]

let's review the tape on this:

• news hits that Blue is expected to enter the portal via IT and other paysites, including TFB
• Blue meets with coaches
• reported that coaches told Blue he could enter the portal but if he did there was no place for him to come back to Texas
• 4 hours after the news hitting Blue posts that he is "locked in"

also if you don't think he has practiced what he was going to say about quitting on his high school team at all over the 3 years since he said it you really are fucking dumb.
 

Where at any point in time did I say Blue was rated higher than Baxter or I thought he should have been above him on the depth chart? We have people getting paid good money to make those decisions, their career is on the line, not mine. All I said is basically this: if Blue is a malcontent then I havent heard any specifics on that, only what we all assumed about him when he skipped (quit on his team) his senior year. I also assumed he was where he was on the depth chart last year based on field performance, nothing more than that. Quinn also skipped his senior year (you could also call that quitting on his team) the only difference is he graduated early and went to tOSU...but still could have helped his team win a state title but was thinking of himself more than that. Blue was also thinking of only himself, but because he didn't come in and grab a starting spot right away..that's somehow worse? If he really is doing the same to the Longhorns that he did to his HS team, what does that say about Sark/Choice that he's still on the roster today?

[closetojumping 62728]

25 minutes ago, ousux said:

35 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This forum isn't a thoughtless mob and I don't pull any puppet strings. The reality is that you made an ass of yourself, as you often do, and you have presence of mind to simply shut the fuck up, take the loss and move on. Thus, numerous people were climbing over each other to mock your bad takes and even worse lack of ethics in the discussion.

Ethics? Ethics in here? Since when is that a thing. I'm not unaware Blue was 3rd string last year in spite of being rated higher (before skipping his senior year) than JB and true Freshman Baxter named the starter. I thought it was purely on talent eval by Choice/Sark, I missed anything said about his character. Why didn't Sark say bye bye when he announced he was entering the portal? I don't think a RB that wasn't getting the touches he expected threatening to portal was any worse than a starting WR (no names here) doing the same after every season, just maybe a little less publicly?

I already said to you that this has been hashed out, on multiple occasions, on this board. You aren't worth the effort for me to type more thoughts on the same subject out for just your benefit. Go do a search and find what you'd like, or continue to be ignorant, I don't care. Either way, since it is all I have, I'm going to start negging your bandwidth draining posts on this thread regarding this subject and your behavior. You've already been publicly depantsed and that doesn't matter. Neg is all we have left. If we were physically in the same room, I'd try farting in your general direction and would then escalate things to grabbing you by the ear and casting you out of the gathering so as to spare us all from further interactions with one of the village's loudest idiots.

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

Per CJ DJ Campbell was a full go at practice today after leaving the scrimmage early with a shoulder injury Saturday.

[ousux 5597]

I already said to you that this has been hashed out, on multiple occasions, on this board. You aren't worth the effort for me to type more thoughts on the same subject out for just your benefit. Go do a search and find what you'd like, or continue to be ignorant, I don't care. Either way, since it is all I have, I'm going to start negging your bandwidth draining posts on this thread regarding this subject and your behavior. You've already been publicly depantsed and that doesn't matter. Neg is all we have left. If we were physically in the same room, I'd try farting in your general direction and would then escalate things to grabbing you by the ear and casting you out of the gathering so as to spare us all from further interactions with one of the village's loudest idiots.

Pretty sure I'm a few years younger than you and in decent shape in spite of my alcohol consumption, but I'd really enjoy you trying to grab my ear...as would everyone else in the room.

[closetojumping 62728]

7 minutes ago, ousux said:

Pretty sure I'm a few years younger than you and in decent shape in spite of my alcohol consumption, but I'd really enjoy you trying to grab my ear...as would everyone else in the room.

Negged. 

[ousux 5597]

If you could get me crowd sourced off this godforsaken pit of insanity that would do wonders for my work production.

[Newy25 7668]

1 hour ago, ousux said:

Huh? What did I say..

The first post you quoted was in response to multiple people telling me I was wrong for saying the second thing you quoted without saying why...some really have no idea, they were just going along with CTJ.

Congrats on being late to the party and digging up something that long since passed.

I’m negging you because you have become an insufferable cunt on this subject. 

[futureman 22464]

you're all fucking nerds

[TrashMaster G 17557]

25 minutes ago, futureman said:

you're all fucking nerds

Negged

[closetohumping 17442]

Anwar

 

Spoiler

Anwar Richardson
Well-Known Member   Staff
Mar 25, 2024
Add bookmark
#1
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian addressed the media after practice on Monday.

Here are the five highlights from Sarkisian's press conference:

1. Texas DB Malik Muhammad was limited in practice on Monday. Sarkisian would not disclose the injury but said the sophomore should return on Wednesday or Friday.

In addition, Sarkisian said they have versatility in the back end.

“I know we probably label like Jahdae [Barron] and Jaylon Guilabeau and Austin Jordan as Star, but we're rolling those guys at multiple positions. We're rolling safeties at Star. We've got really good depth. With Brooks and Gavin Holmes coming back with Manny has been helpful, but there's an influx of some young players that are that are getting some good opportunities right now. Seeing some growth in them and what they can be with, Wardell Mack or Kobe Blacks. I feel really good about the depth. We're going to have to harness it a little bit here at some point down in August of, okay, what's this rotation going to look like when we get there? But for right now, they're all playing and they're all looking pretty good.”Ma

2. I asked Sarkisian to name some players who have unexpectedly popped on film. Reluctantly, Sarkisian said safety Andrew Makuba and tight end Juan Davis.

“The guy who I just talked to after practice, I love the way he's practicing right now, is Andrew Makuba. I think you feel his experience as a player. You feel him having the ability to play multiple positions. I love the intent that which he practices with. He's aggressive, he's tough, but yet he knows how to practice. He doesn't go to the ground. He knows how to do those things. I hope he serves as a really good benchmark for some of the other guys on how to do it. He's definitely showing up that way and in been impressed with that.

“I think naturally, offensively, Juan Davis has been kind of a pleasant surprise This has definitely been his best spring so far. I'm proud of him and the work that he's putting in. Outside of that, they're all they're all working you know. I'd hate to just start rattling off a bunch of guys because inevitably I'll leave somebody out and then I’ll have a parent or a trainer or somebody calling me asking why I didn’t reference so-and-so.”

3. When asked if the first-year players from the transfer portal were finding their voice, Sarkisian said it is a challenge, but the relationships with their new teammates are starting to grow. In addition, he highlighted a few key players.

“You know, Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Amari Niblack," Sarkisian said. "All three of those guys I think are going to be fantastic players for us. Their transition may not have been as quick as a Trey Moore or Andrew Makuba, but I'm starting to see it more and more, and I'm starting to feel their personality a little bit more in the way that they play, and their ability to recognize when a young guy needs help, or a young guy is, not right on something, they have enough confidence now to step in and to help the situation.”

4. Sarkisian said he noticed the difference in Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning as they enter their third and second seasons, respectively, at Texas. He believes their command will be important. Sarkisian said it is not just what they know and their ability to function, but they make sure the guys around them have the right frame of mind and ability to perform around them.

In addition, Sarkisian said their ability to push young receivers, such as Johntay Cook, DeAndre Moore, and Ryan Niblett hinges, on the performances of his quarterbacks.

5. Sarkisian praised the development of Cam Williams. He said Williams has earned extensive reps this spring because of his maturity and ability to lose weight and maintain a manageable number. Sarkisian said Williams is improving as relates to getting into football shape, but there is still room for

 

[futureman 22464]

3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Anwar

 

  Hide contents

Anwar Richardson
Well-Known Member   Staff
Mar 25, 2024
Add bookmark
#1
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian addressed the media after practice on Monday.

Here are the five highlights from Sarkisian's press conference:

1. Texas DB Malik Muhammad was limited in practice on Monday. Sarkisian would not disclose the injury but said the sophomore should return on Wednesday or Friday.

In addition, Sarkisian said they have versatility in the back end.

“I know we probably label like Jahdae [Barron] and Jaylon Guilabeau and Austin Jordan as Star, but we're rolling those guys at multiple positions. We're rolling safeties at Star. We've got really good depth. With Brooks and Gavin Holmes coming back with Manny has been helpful, but there's an influx of some young players that are that are getting some good opportunities right now. Seeing some growth in them and what they can be with, Wardell Mack or Kobe Blacks. I feel really good about the depth. We're going to have to harness it a little bit here at some point down in August of, okay, what's this rotation going to look like when we get there? But for right now, they're all playing and they're all looking pretty good.”Ma

2. I asked Sarkisian to name some players who have unexpectedly popped on film. Reluctantly, Sarkisian said safety Andrew Makuba and tight end Juan Davis.

“The guy who I just talked to after practice, I love the way he's practicing right now, is Andrew Makuba. I think you feel his experience as a player. You feel him having the ability to play multiple positions. I love the intent that which he practices with. He's aggressive, he's tough, but yet he knows how to practice. He doesn't go to the ground. He knows how to do those things. I hope he serves as a really good benchmark for some of the other guys on how to do it. He's definitely showing up that way and in been impressed with that.

“I think naturally, offensively, Juan Davis has been kind of a pleasant surprise This has definitely been his best spring so far. I'm proud of him and the work that he's putting in. Outside of that, they're all they're all working you know. I'd hate to just start rattling off a bunch of guys because inevitably I'll leave somebody out and then I’ll have a parent or a trainer or somebody calling me asking why I didn’t reference so-and-so.”

3. When asked if the first-year players from the transfer portal were finding their voice, Sarkisian said it is a challenge, but the relationships with their new teammates are starting to grow. In addition, he highlighted a few key players.

“You know, Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Amari Niblack," Sarkisian said. "All three of those guys I think are going to be fantastic players for us. Their transition may not have been as quick as a Trey Moore or Andrew Makuba, but I'm starting to see it more and more, and I'm starting to feel their personality a little bit more in the way that they play, and their ability to recognize when a young guy needs help, or a young guy is, not right on something, they have enough confidence now to step in and to help the situation.”

4. Sarkisian said he noticed the difference in Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning as they enter their third and second seasons, respectively, at Texas. He believes their command will be important. Sarkisian said it is not just what they know and their ability to function, but they make sure the guys around them have the right frame of mind and ability to perform around them.

In addition, Sarkisian said their ability to push young receivers, such as Johntay Cook, DeAndre Moore, and Ryan Niblett hinges, on the performances of his quarterbacks.

5. Sarkisian praised the development of Cam Williams. He said Williams has earned extensive reps this spring because of his maturity and ability to lose weight and maintain a manageable number. Sarkisian said Williams is improving as relates to getting into football shape, but there is still room for

 

do you have the rest

[Foosters 17856]

That Anwar article is from 16 days ago

 

[South Austin 52508]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

That Anwar article is from 16 days ago

Maybe he's been in a coma.

[Burt Macklin 19024]

11 minutes ago, Foosters said:

That Anwar article is from 16 days ago

 

So you’re saying the info in there is more up-to-date than the usual Orangebloods report? 

Edited April 9 by Burt Macklin

[Rimbo 25936]

Well anyway, on the odd chance any of you dickheads actually want to talk football, here's Sark's PC from today.

Seems to me that Sark is struggling to contain his excitement.

[Tex Pete 20354]

2 hours ago, futureman said:

you're all fucking nerds

I only did that once. Only because she was one of the last girls at the party.

[Park Gothic 5039]

51 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Well anyway, on the odd chance any of you dickheads actually want to talk football, here's Sark's PC from today.

Seems to me that Sark is struggling to contain his excitement.

Love his comments about "getting the consistency" out of Alfred Collins. It would be huge if that dude can reach his potential. 

[Knighthawk 284]

Full blown aids = this thread = stage 4 cancer.   Fuck me for reading the last three pages.  

[Born Burnt 6178]

3 hours ago, Knighthawk said:

Fuck me for reading the last three pages.  

[oldhorn2 431]

Seriously...these last few pages are an attempt to try and make me give up my seat on the Kool aide train.....

Not gonna happen!

[Elmer_Fudd 22224]

January

 

[Josef Pwag 1738]

22 hours ago, NoName said:

but his stats are bumped up a ton by the fact he had 26% of his yardage for the year on 2 carries (3% of his total carries) - that is not sustainable

The difference between 8-4 and 11-1 in college football is explosive plays, for and against you. With limited opportunities, Blue demonstrated that he is the one RB we have who can reliably create explosive plays from that position. I think him popping big runs is sustainable. He will being the year as our #2 and will end the year as our starter. 

Edited April 10 by Josef Pwag

[TxTower 652]

Love his comments about "getting the consistency" out of Alfred Collins. It would be huge if that dude can reach his potential. 

Well - we’ve been waiting four years. Not holding my breath on this one.

[Herpa Derpa 6126]

25 minutes ago, TxTower said:

Well - we’ve been waiting four years.

Inconsistency over four years does have a certain consistency. After a long enough period the performance can no longer be considered inconsistent. It is what it is.

[NoName 16352]

1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

The difference between 8-4 and 11-1 in college football is explosive plays, for and against you. With limited opportunities, Blue demonstrated that he is the one RB we have who can reliably create explosive plays from that position. I think him popping big runs is sustainable. He will being the year as our #2 and will end the year as our starter. 

yeah, that's wrong.

pulled the per play data for only the ISU game, the TTU game, the Oklahoma State game and the Washington game - games after Brooks got hurt and those two basically split rushing attempts. here's the results

edit: fixed my %s, i had hardcoded formulas - my bad

By percentage, Baxter had fewer rushes that went for negative yards (2% for Baxter - 1 rush, 11.1% for Blue - 4 rushes), more rushes that went 5+ yards, more rushes that went 10+ yards.

Blue had more rushes by % that went 20+ yards (2.8 vs 2.0%) and 1 that went for 30+ yards, Baxter had 0.

this is just to prove that nobody was out here ripping of 18 yards very often and getting dinged by my 20 yard threshold

• Blue's rushes of 10+ yards: 11, 12, 69, 12, 16, 12
• Baxter's rushes of 10+ yards: 12, 13, 13, 14, 21, 13, 10, 14, 13, 16

people get blinded by a 69 yard TD - which was awesome - but the guy was touched like 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage and never touched again

despite this guy having 40 yards and this angle on him (he took a really bad angle)

Edited April 10 by NoName

[Longhornlove 4829]

1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

is the one RB we have

Don't discredit Tre Wisner. He has great hands, vision, patience and acceleration. In my opinion he will be better than KROB offensively.

[Sgt Hulk 13716]

2 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

January

 

No it’s April 

[Rimbo 25936]

43 minutes ago, NoName said:

yeah, that's wrong.

pulled the per play data for only the ISU game, the TTU game, the Oklahoma State game and the Washington game - games after Brooks got hurt and those two basically split rushing attempts. here's the results

edit: fixed my %s, i had hardcoded formulas - my bad

By percentage, Baxter had fewer rushes that went for negative yards (2% for Baxter - 1 rush, 11.1% for Blue - 4 rushes), more rushes that went 5+ yards, more rushes that went 10+ yards.

Blue had more rushes by % that went 20+ yards (2.8 vs 2.0%) and 1 that went for 30+ yards, Baxter had 0.

this is just to prove that nobody was out here ripping of 18 yards very often and getting dinged by my 20 yard threshold

• Blue's rushes of 10+ yards: 11, 12, 69, 12, 16, 12
• Baxter's rushes of 10+ yards: 12, 13, 13, 14, 21, 13, 10, 14, 13, 16

people get blinded by a 69 yard TD - which was awesome - but the guy was touched like 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage and never touched again

despite this guy having 40 yards and this angle on him (he took a really bad angle)

I love this discussion. Real football discussion.

The problem, of course, is the problem with most attempts at statistical analysis of football: The sample sizes are too small to be meaningful. (Even in a Mike Leach's Wet Dream of a game where each player gets 100 snaps per game, we rarely look at all 100 snaps, and just one out of those can and will have an outsized impact on the results.)

But here, 49 vs 36 attempts is... it just ain't nothin'. Better than what you'd get for a WR (or a lockdown CB that nobody ever bothers throwing at, because his guy's never open), but still barely worth the effort.

You're not wrong at all. Just that nobody knows shit in this "discussion" as it were.

[MontereyMX 869]

58 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

Don't discredit Tre Wisner. He has great hands, vision, patience and acceleration. In my opinion he will be better than KROB offensively.

and will knock your dick in the dirt covering kick offs

[Red Five 40859]

The deal with Blue is that we have eyes and have been watching football for awhile. A handful of times over the last few games he made me stand up and yell "holy fuck!". But yeah let's see how that translates to a full season and hopefully a lot more touches.

[closetojumping 62728]

I continue to be of the opinion that "big data" and "data science" as it pertains to college football can be just mental masturbation and ways for consultants and tech firms to suckle off the teat of the CFB behemoth. I say that as someone who completely understands the value of those terms and the work around them for baseball, golf, hockey, basketball, etc. In CFB the sample sizes are too small and the variables in rosters, conditions, injuries (something significantly more impactful on outcomes in game than other sports and not incorporated into any of the data outputs/predictions), etc. have significant beta on them that can only be overcome with sample sizes that aren't going to be there.

I'm speaking mostly about individual player analysis/comparisons with advanced stats and the notion of "this is what the book said" as an excuse for determining outcomes in games. I get the uses for gambling and long term evaluation of playcallers and their habits. 

Idiots who just mindlessly work off of a "book" or a "binder", like Herman, are as bad as the guys who used to only, it seemed, play for field goals.

[NoName 16352]

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

I love this discussion. Real football discussion.

The problem, of course, is the problem with most attempts at statistical analysis of football: The sample sizes are too small to be meaningful. (Even in a Mike Leach's Wet Dream of a game where each player gets 100 snaps per game, we rarely look at all 100 snaps, and just one out of those can and will have an outsized impact on the results.)

But here, 49 vs 36 attempts is... it just ain't nothin'. Better than what you'd get for a WR (or a lockdown CB that nobody ever bothers throwing at, because his guy's never open), but still barely worth the effort.

You're not wrong at all. Just that nobody knows shit in this "discussion" as it were.

i agree with the tiny sample size issue totally and completely. the point of that is that the data we do have and do have access to does not back up the "Guy A is more explosive than Guy B" eye test. 

all we do know is that at every opportunity for their careers at Texas the coaching staff, which has access to way more data and way more information than we do, has said chosen to give more snaps to Baxter over Blue.

here's is to hoping Texas has some wildass RB room next year and they both run for thousand yards.

Just now, closetojumping said:

I continue to be of the opinion that "big data" and "data science" as it pertains to college football can be just mental masturbation and ways for consultants and tech firms to suckle off the teat of the CFB behemoth. I say that as someone who completely understands the value of those terms and the work around them for baseball, golf, hockey, basketball, etc. In CFB the sample sizes are too small and the variables in rosters, conditions, injuries (something significantly more impactful on outcomes in game than other sports and not incorporated into any of the data outputs/predictions), etc. have significant beta on them that can only be overcome with sample sizes that aren't going to be there.

I'm speaking mostly about individual player analysis/comparisons with advanced stats and the notion of "this is what the book said" as an excuse for determining outcomes in games. I get the uses for gambling and long term evaluation of playcallers and their habits. 

Idiots who just mindlessly work off of a "book" or a "binder", like Herman, are as bad as the guys who used to only, it seemed, play for field goals.

i agree that a lot of the value of those terms is better in other sports vs football in general. there is no CFB version of wRC+ out there to compare how good True Freshman Bijan was vs true freshman Cedric Benson or even an easier way to compare someone like Blue to someone like Baxter.

i agree that the sample size is too small in CFB

i agree that there are huge swings in variability to make any one of them the single best stat or single best metric.

also i think there is absolutely value in looking some of the advanced stats as a piece of the puzzle and a piece of how good a player/team is. i think they are more valuable at the team level than the player level (much larger sample size at that point) but there is no be all end all stat

i think some of the RB stats we had access to are useful (highlight yards vs line yards for example) - but again that doesn't show everything and isn't the end all be all.

of all the (public systems) out there, prediction tracker tracks like 50 different (public) systems that all make game predictions and last year 2 total systems beat the line straight up and the best one was only 0.5% better than the line SU. ATS, the line was better by almost 5%. none of em are perfect, none of them are the end all-be all. 

that said, the very basic stats around Blue vs Baxter absolutely do not back up the "Blue is incredibly explosive and way more explosive than Baxter."

the comparison to Herman hurts

i like stats, i think they add color to the discussion and add value to the discussion. you have to balance between the gut/eye test and the stats side of things. anyone who uses stats alone is as bad as someone who uses the eye test alone.

 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

With Sabermetrics you could see that the traditional stats had underlying limitations, and Sabermetrics obviously improved on that. The stats above look like somebody went to a lot of effort. But I NEVER find that stuff convincing. I like the PFF grading but have no way to evaluate its accuracy.

Still, CJ averaged 4.8 per carry, and Blue averaged 6.1 CJ averaged 6.5 per reception, Blue 9.6. So he looks like a slightly better runner and a better receiver than CJ. But who knows. Play them both. Ipso facto, res ispa loquitor, veni vidi vici, fortis fortuna adiuvat we're gonna kick ass.

 

Edited April 10 by Thetexashammer

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

Analytics dorks in football is the worst. Seasons too short, players are different as there isn’t individual matchups to draw good analytics from. Paralysis by analysis 

[NoName 16352]

2 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

With Sabermetrics you could see that the traditional stats had underlying limitations, and Sabermetrics obviously improved on that. The stats above look like somebody went to a lot of effort. But I NEVER find that stuff convincing. I like the PFF grading but have no way to evaluate its accuracy

just to be clear, this took less than 10 min thanks to https://collegefootballdata.com/ and Excel - not a long project and can be done even faster if you know anything about R and Python

[Rimbo 25936]

10 minutes ago, NoName said:

just to be clear, this took less than 10 min thanks to https://collegefootballdata.com/ and Excel - not a long project and can be done even faster if you know anything about R and Python

nice