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2024 Spring Practice to Fall Camp Thread - Who’s a JAG now?


sith_horn

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Speaking of which, Bud Elliot put out his blue chip ratio. 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/blue-chip-ratio-2024-these-16-college-football-teams-can-actually-win-the-national-championship/

Enough talk, show me the list 

SCHOOLBCR 

Ohio State 90%

Alabama 88%

Georgia 80%

Texas A&M 79%

Oregon 76%

Oklahoma 73%

Texas 72%

LSU 70%

Notre Dame 67%

Clemson 64%

Florida  63%

Miami 61%

Penn State 61%

USC 59%

Michigan 56%

Auburn 53%

 

 

He starts discussing it at about the 32:40 mark. 

 

Edited by Catdaddyhorn
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5 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Speaking of which, Bud Elliot put out his blue chip ratio. 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/blue-chip-ratio-2024-these-16-college-football-teams-can-actually-win-the-national-championship/

Enough talk, show me the list 

SCHOOLBCR 

Ohio State 90%

Alabama 88%

Georgia 80%

Texas A&M 79%

Oregon 76%

Oklahoma 73%

Texas 72%

LSU 70%

Notre Dame 67%

Clemson 64%

Florida  63%

Miami 61%

Penn State 61%

USC 59%

Michigan 56%

Auburn 53%

 

 

He starts discussing it at about the 32:40 mark. 

 

How is Texas A&M still at a 79% ratio after the mass exodus they had in the spring? They were backfilling with a bunch of Sunbelt guys. 

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15 hours ago, Vertigo said:

How is Texas A&M still at a 79% ratio after the mass exodus they had in the spring? They were backfilling with a bunch of Sunbelt guys. 

It doesn’t account for attrition and it ignores incoming transfer replacements. Half the blue chips or more that ATM, for instance, is getting credit for are now playing elsewhere, like sweet and levelheaded Chris Marshall, who is now at Boise State. 

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56 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It doesn’t account for attrition and it ignores incoming transfer replacements. Half the blue chips or more that ATM, for instance, is getting credit for are now playing elsewhere, like sweet and levelheaded Chris Marshall, who is now at Boise State. 

What a completely worthless system then in the portal age.

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17 minutes ago, Red Five said:

What a completely worthless system then in the portal age.

If you read their breakdown of its “success” and then how they handle transfers, the former raises eyebrows and then the latter rolls the eyes. 

Regarding “success” of the ratio being a forecaster of success, they include Michigan from last year, whose ratio was like .54 and one or more of the Clemson teams whose ratios were also below .60. 

Conveniently, for the number to be “debunked”, someone would need a number below .50.  Okay then. 

On transfers, they basically say it hasn’t mattered and would be a lot of work to change. 

Then they laud all of the media services and talking heads who use the numbers as gospel. The truth is that it’s an easy story each cycle to digest and then pontificate upon and that’s what works with the idiots in sports media. 

I went through yesterday while listening to a conference call and did ATM’s quick and dirty real numbers and they’re like a .45 for this season. It’s wildly off from the posted numbers. That doesn’t help ATM at all, btw. If they don’t post a great w/l ratio this year, they’re going to be harshly mocked for “not developing talent” like the others with high numbers. 

One other thing is that I am not even sure if they use a composite system. I think they just use the 247 independent rankings because both groups are CBS subsidiaries. If my memory is correct and that is true, it makes the “data” even more flawed. 

Edited by closetojumping
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Here's what I track based on composite ratings of .90 or higher (I don't track stars). Transfers get their transfer rating, not their HS rating. However, it just shows the rating at NSD (for HS) or on the commitment date (transfers). I don't check the ratings to see if they've been updated. It's not perfect, but it's at least a step in the right direction.

image.png.de6a71a20df83fae9fb5d831d6936396.png

Link:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TzoBTIvCXfZIk7Sz3C9txMg0yPvrXyVM/edit?gid=529379820#gid=529379820 (bottom of the Aggie Grid tab)

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43 minutes ago, AP101S said:

Here's what I track based on composite ratings of .90 or higher (I don't track stars). Transfers get their transfer rating, not their HS rating. However, it just shows the rating at NSD (for HS) or on the commitment date (transfers). I don't check the ratings to see if they've been updated. It's not perfect, but it's at least a step in the right direction.

image.png.de6a71a20df83fae9fb5d831d6936396.png

Link:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TzoBTIvCXfZIk7Sz3C9txMg0yPvrXyVM/edit?gid=529379820#gid=529379820 (bottom of the Aggie Grid tab)

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4 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

My beautiful darlings. 

I got to hang yesterday afternoon with my boy, Quinn Ewers. This is now the third summer I have been blessed to spend a little time with him.  

He is such a nice young man. He's quiet, really personable and will represent any franchise well at the next level. 

He looks a little taller to me, but maybe I am shrinking. 

Dude has a cannon for an arm. He made some amazing throws. 

This year, I brought two footballs for him to sign to go along with my Longhorn QB collection. Collect 'em all! I'm keeping one, but stay tuned for Surly news about the other one. It could involve you!

Cheers!

IMG-5890-B.jpg

IMG-5892-B.jpg

IMG-5897-B.jpg

 

 

 

 

Negged for darlings.

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2 hours ago, AP101S said:

Here's what I track based on composite ratings of .90 or higher (I don't track stars). Transfers get their transfer rating, not their HS rating. However, it just shows the rating at NSD (for HS) or on the commitment date (transfers). I don't check the ratings to see if they've been updated. It's not perfect, but it's at least a step in the right direction.

image.png.de6a71a20df83fae9fb5d831d6936396.png

Link:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TzoBTIvCXfZIk7Sz3C9txMg0yPvrXyVM/edit?gid=529379820#gid=529379820 (bottom of the Aggie Grid tab)

Very nicely done. I did the back of napkin on your sheet for Texas and we're at 55/82 if I did the math right for a 67% ratio. .922 Average, I'm guessing cause there were ~10 guys at .89, i.e. very few scrubs.

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21 hours ago, Vertigo said:

How is Texas A&M still at a 79% ratio after the mass exodus they had in the spring? They were backfilling with a bunch of Sunbelt guys. 

 

But some programs have attacked the portal in huge numbers. As mentioned above, Florida State managed to climb to 7th in SP+ (and higher in the polls) before Travis got hurt. And Ole Miss, a team even more reliant on transfers (almost 50 in the last two cycles), finished 12th in SP+.  

SCHOOLBCR WITH TRANSFERS

Ohio State 86%

Alabama 82%

Georgia 77%

Oregon 71%

Texas 70%

LSU 66%

Clemson 64%

Oklahoma 63%

Notre Dame 63%

Texas A&M 63%

Florida 58%

Penn State 57%

Miami 56%

USC 54%

Michigan 54%

Florida State 53%

Florida State is the largest positive mover, by far, when incorporating transfer ratings. The largest fallers are Texas A&M and Oklahoma, who took 40 and 30 transfers in the last two years, respectively, most of which were not high-end players. 

Edited by Catdaddyhorn
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On 6/27/2024 at 7:50 AM, TreatyOak said:

My beautiful darlings. 

I got to hang yesterday afternoon with my boy, Quinn Ewers. This is now the third summer I have been blessed to spend a little time with him.  

He is such a nice young man. He's quiet, really personable and will represent any franchise well at the next level. 

He looks a little taller to me, but maybe I am shrinking. 

Dude has a cannon for an arm. He made some amazing throws. 

This year, I brought two footballs for him to sign to go along with my Longhorn QB collection. Collect 'em all! I'm keeping one, but stay tuned for Surly news about the other one. It could involve you!

Cheers!

IMG-5890-B.jpg

IMG-5892-B.jpg

IMG-5897-B.jpg

11FZSZYqLsijN6.webp

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15 hours ago, Newy25 said:


I’m all for the good publicity but is it certain that Bond is even the WR1 this year? Ewers/Cook, Ewers/Moore, and Ewers/Bolden are also possibilities. 

Until I see differently on the field I'm assuming the top 3 receivers at first will be Bond, Golden, and Bolden. There was a reason NIL money was put up to get them in and it wasn't to ride the bench. Cook had a lot of freshmen moments last season so he'll have to prove he's fixed the mental side of it. It's a big fall camp for Cook, Moore, and Niblett 

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6 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Until I see differently on the field I'm assuming the top 3 receivers at first will be Bond, Golden, and Bolden. There was a reason NIL money was put up to get them in and it wasn't to ride the bench. Cook had a lot of freshmen moments last season so he'll have to prove he's fixed the mental side of it. It's a big fall camp for Cook, Moore, and Niblett 

On the other hand, of the WRs on this team, Ewers has the most experience with Cook. May be worth something early in the season. Also he's pretty good. 

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6 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Until I see differently on the field I'm assuming the top 3 receivers at first will be Bond, Golden, and Bolden. There was a reason NIL money was put up to get them in and it wasn't to ride the bench. Cook had a lot of freshmen moments last season so he'll have to prove he's fixed the mental side of it. It's a big fall camp for Cook, Moore, and Niblett 


I’m not sure Golden or Bolden are ahead of Cook. 

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1 hour ago, Newy25 said:


I’m not sure Golden or Bolden are ahead of Cook. 

Why? Those guys have done it on the field at a pretty high level. So far Cook hasn't done anything. Got limited snaps last year partly because 2 guys were rightly WAY ahead of him, but Sark wanted to get him in for Whittington at times to get more speed and explosive potential but as the season wore on he got less and less time. At ISU on the road in the 2nd half he put him in and Cook promptly screwed up his alignment forcing a burned time out. Sark jumped his ass and he didn't see the field again that game. 

Those are the types of mental mistakes that hopefully he's fixed but until we see it on the field we can't assume he has. First Sark and Jackson need to see it in fall camp. 

I know guys here who slurp up all the recruiting year round get their pet favorites and emotionally invest in them, and Cook being a former 5 star elicits a ton of that in a lot of people here. But once he stepped on campus that 5 star meant Jack and shit so now he's got to develop. Hopefully he has but we don't know yet. We know Bolden can torch p5 teams because we've seen it. Same with Golden. 

Edited by Hermanator
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2 hours ago, Jkwellborn said:


That’s a grown ass man.

Can’t wait to see him play this year.  There were so many times last year where it felt like he was just about to break a long one or felt like he was just getting in the groove and he’d get dinged up.  This will be his first real year with a grown man body.  I feel bad for the defenders that are tasked with tackling him.  

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Why? Those guys have done it on the field at a pretty high level. So far Cook hasn't done anything. Got limited snaps last year partly because 2 guys were rightly WAY ahead of him, but Sark wanted to get him in for Whittington at times to get more speed and explosive potential but as the season wore on he got less and less time. At ISU on the road in the 2nd half he put him in and Cook promptly screwed up his alignment forcing a burned time out. Sark jumped his ass and he didn't see the field again that game. 
Those are the types of mental mistakes that hopefully he's fixed but until we see it on the field we can't assume he has. First Sark and Jackson need to see it in fall camp. 
I know guys here who slurp up all the recruiting year round get their pet favorites and emotionally invest in them, and Cook being a former 5 star elicits a ton of that in a lot of people here. But once he stepped on campus that 5 star meant Jack and shit so now he's got to develop. Hopefully he has but we don't know yet. We know Bolden can torch p5 teams because we've seen it. Same with Golden. 
Cook didn't get much time because Whittington was having his best season as a Longhorn (go back and watch the Bama and blowU games) and only a fool would take X and AD off the field unless they were injured. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion the transfers get more snaps than Cook this year, but we will see.
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Conclusion was never uttered. But the guys they brought in are known producers at this level. Cook has to prove he can get it done to surpass one of them. 

I think it's most likely Cook gets anywhere from 3rd to 5th most snaps of WRs this season as he continues to develop. I think Bond and Bolden get the most. Bolden is just ridiculously explosive and elusive and apparently already a room leader in summer work. 

Edited by Hermanator
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