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Texas Basketball 2024-25


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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

If Johnson can just get a little more consistent on O(Terry needs to figure out getting him at least SOME open looks) and Mark can lift his game to give us more quality "big guard" minutes we will win 5 more.

The back half of our SEC schedule is also a lot easier.

Both Arkansas games, @ LSU, @ South Carolina, Georgia, and OU are all very winnable games. Those 5 teams are a combined 5-25 in the SEC. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

If Johnson can just get a little more consistent on O(Terry needs to figure out getting him at least SOME open looks) and Mark can lift his game to give us more quality "big guard" minutes we will win 5 more.

He gets a lot of open looks off of cuts to the elbow but he seems to like to pound the shit out of the ball to get into rhythm rather than the quick hitters they set him up for at the elbow. 

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Just now, Catdaddyhorn said:

He gets a lot of open looks off of cuts to the elbow but he seems to like to pound the shit out of the ball to get into rhythm rather than the quick hitters they set him up for at the elbow. 

Yeah, I think this is the key to the season moving forward.

Let the ball stay in Larry's hands. Good things tend to happen. Mark, Pope, and Johnson all like to pound the shit out of the ball but they don't really create for others. All 3 still have the talent to score but the flow of our offense is so much better when Larry is creating good shots for those guys. 

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I have to give it to RT credit for the substitutions. I can’t believe we didn’t have Pope in as he’s probably our 3rd best player. But that lineup with him out kept clawing back into into it, and kept getting defensive stops. The formula seemed to be to get our best defenders on the court and let Tre Johnson take over on offense. It worked!

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this Texas team reminds me of our Tom Penders teams, not in terms of style, but in that we will be (i’m guessing) a 7-10 seed that you don’t want to face on the first weekend. if Tre Johnson goes off there’s very few teams we can’t beat, and with the fact that we have legit 3-4 guys who can go off for an efficient 20+ on any given night, we could be a mediocre regular season team that’s a dangerous tourney team.

fwiw i see us as the inverse of tennessee, a very good regular season team that will get a high seed and then potentially lose early if lanier has an off day or if zeigler gets in foul trouble. imagine if we get a rematch with them in a 2 vs 10 (or 7!) game. wow. the drama would be through the roof. i don’t know if my heart could handle it lol. but that would be the exact type of scenario that could see tennessee go home early/Texas go to the S16. 

Edited by Derka
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10 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

This team is all over the place.  Any of those games can be losses as well

Not wrong. Little more margin for error now with the aggy win. Basically any win over Ole Miss, Miss St, Bama or UK offsets a fuckup against the bottom of the conference - OU, Georgia, SoCar, Arky, LSU. 

At this point, it’s TCB and in. 

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8 hours ago, Derka said:

this Texas team reminds me of our Tom Penders teams, not in terms of style, but in that we will be (i’m guessing) a 7-10 seed that you don’t want to face on the first weekend. if Tre Johnson goes off there’s very few teams we can’t beat, and with the fact that we have legit 3-4 guys who can go off for an efficient 20+ on any given night, we could be a mediocre regular season team that’s a dangerous tourney team.

fwiw i see us as the inverse of tennessee, a very good regular season team that will get a high seed and then potentially lose early if lanier has an off day or if zeigler gets in foul trouble. imagine if we get a rematch with them in a 2 vs 10 (or 7!) game. wow. the drama would be through the roof. i don’t know if my heart could handle it lol. but that would be the exact type of scenario that could see tennessee go home early/Texas go to the S16. 

Another year of being a scrappy 7 seed. Yay

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Updated conference probability distribution based on KenPom single game odds:

image.png.01d74aa081f11d23bc17dc4ae9e11819.png

If we assume that 7-11 gives us a 50% shot to get in the tournament, then our tourney odds are about 80%.  And we have better odds of going 10-8 in conference, which would probably be a 6-7 seed, than we do missing the tourney altogether.

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32 in NET this morning, still so much left to play. 

Currently 3-4 in the SEC.  I do see a path to 9 SEC wins - LSU, arky, @SoCar, @arky, Georgia, OU.  All 5 teams below us in the standings.  6-5 finish would finish our regular season at 20-11 (9-9).  We are in safely in the tournament with that resume, which would include, so far, wins over aggy (NET 12) and Mizzou (NET 24) and very close losses to Tennessee (NET 4) and Auburn (NET 1), as well as a win at OU (NET 47). 

@ Ole Miss (22)
LSU (67)
arky (57)
@ vandy (37)
Bama (7)
UK (14)
@ SoCar (90)
@ arky (57)
Georgia (35)
@ MSST (21)
OU (47)

it is a shame our 2 notable non-conf wins ended up being so bad - Syracuse is 127 and NCST is 119.  Turns out our best non-conf win is Saint Joseph's (NET 86). 
 

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4 hours ago, HookEm said:

I have no idea what is going on in this thread now.

Wild mood swings depending on what happens in the last game. 

From can't possibility make the NCAA Tourney, to now can make the Sweet Sixteen.

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Most actual fans have seen the potential in this group all year. I have been saying for a year that this team looks better constructed than last year’s group. But when you have sub-par coaching you get this type of inconsistency.

We could easily miss the tournament. And we could get a favorable matchup and hit 3s and make the Elite 8. That has been the case all year.

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2 hours ago, HookEm said:

Most actual fans have seen the potential in this group all year. I have been saying for a year that this team looks better constructed than last year’s group. But when you have sub-par coaching you get this type of inconsistency.

We could easily miss the tournament. And we could get a favorable matchup and hit 3s and make the Elite 8. That has been the case all year.

I think RT is an avg college coach and above avg recruiter but, considering the balance of our schedule, I don't see any way we don't get 5 more wins and make the tournament.  the aggy mizzou wins basically put him in the tourney assuming those 2 teams don't collapse.  Huge wins for him and us.

I think 5/6 seed is probably the absolute ceiling for RT at Texas, I just hope CDC is looking for better.  The guys obviously don't quit on him and I'm sure they like him but you need more than that to really be a top team.

 

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