Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
Just now, LTtxfan said:

Numbers are there if Committee wants to leave Texas out...

Too many losses, terrible loss @Cocks and home vs Dawgs, plus 3 different 3-game loss stretches during conference play.

Screenshot_2025-03-16-09-20-00_kindlephoto-3181078.thumb.png.32975b7ba02ce50c2320c43ebc383df2.png

We don't have any bad losses. All our losses are Q1 and Q2. There are definitely some games that we should have won to keep us off the bubble but none of those losses are bad.

There are multiple teams on the bubble with much worse losses than us. We have 0 Q3 and Q4 losses. Boise State has 2, UNC has 1, San Diego State has 1. 

 

 

 

Posted

Texas fans are historically prone to view the sky as falling, news at 11.

I don't know if we'll get in, but I do know if Q1 record is paramount we should be in.  Then again, I don't give a shit.  I'll watch any remaining games and "root" for Texas but mostly I just want to move on from RT.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Texas fans are historically prone to view the sky as falling, news at 11.

I don't know if we'll get in, but I do know if Q1 record is paramount we should be in.  Then again, I don't give a shit.  I'll watch any remaining games and "root" for Texas but mostly I just want to move on from RT.

No team with at least 7 quad 1 wins has ever missed the tournament and I'm pretty sure no team with at least 10 quad 1 and 2 wins has ever missed the tournament. 

We would be an insane outlier if we missed the tournament. But we are on the bubble for a reason and if we miss the tournament we have nobody to blame but ourselves.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
24 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

We don't have any bad losses. All our losses are Q1 and Q2. There are definitely some games that we should have won to keep us off the bubble but none of those losses are bad.

 

Gotta disagree... late season losses at S.Carolina and at home vs jawja were ugly.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

Assuming there aren't any bid thieves today it's essentially 3 spots for 6 teams.

Q1 wins: 

Texas 7

Indiana 4

SDSU 3

Boise State 3

UNC 1

Xavier 1

Q1 + Q2 wins:

Texas 10

UNC 9

Indiana 9

Xavier 9

Boise State 8

SDSU 8

Q3 + Q4 losses (i.e. bad losses):

Texas 0

Indiana 0

Xavier 0

UNC 1

SDSU 1

Boise State 2

SoS per Kenpom and NET:

Texas #19, #16

Indiana #28, #34

UNC #42, #42

Xavier #59, #60

SDSU #62, #64

Boise State #78, #79

NET ranking:

UNC #36

Texas #39

Boise State #44

Xavier #45

SDSU #52

Indiana #54

We should be in over all of these teams. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Posted

It's obvious that Texas is a better team than the entire bubble, recovering from injuries + talent + best tournament run (hot team). Means we would advance further on average than the rest of the bubble. We would play the higher seeded teams better as well.

That said it is nowhere even close to the standard demanded but we can walk and chew gum at the same time.

 

Posted (edited)

Also, here are the records against the likely at-large teams in the tournament based on the bubble teams. 

Texas 7-13

UNC 1-9

Indiana 2-10

Xavier 3-7

Boise State 6-7

UNC and Indiana have beaten nobody all year. 

 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
  • Haha 1
Posted
On 3/15/2025 at 2:20 AM, Derka said:

they beat arizona, louisville, and michigan in the non conference, while we lost to the only surefire tourney team we played (uconn) as well as our next toughest opponent, bubble team tOSU. we have one ooc win against a team ranked in kenpom’s top 117 (no.76 st.joseph’s).

Texas Tech losing in that early season tournament really fucked us.  Had we had a chance to play and beat Texas Tech it would've not only bolstered our noncon SOS but possibly given us a win. I forget whether they lost to Syracuse or St Joe's. 

Posted
Just now, Catdaddyhorn said:

Texas Tech losing in that early season tournament really fucked us.  Had we had a chance to play and beat Texas Tech it would've not only bolstered our noncon SOS but possibly given us a win. I forget whether they lost to Syracuse or St Joe's. 

They lost to St Joe’s by a point, who we played in the “champ” game of that tournament 

Posted
21 hours ago, David Dennison said:

How many 15 loss teams have received at large bids over the last 30 years?

I think one of Shaka's teams got in with that many losses. I believe it was the Mo Bamba year,  but someone else can check my memory for me. 

Posted
16 hours ago, Ignatius said:

Don’t forget getting swept by Arkansas and losing at home to UGa, all three of them blowouts. We had a chance to take care of this shit in the last 3 weeks…

We lost to Arkansas by 8 at home and in OT at their place.  How do those 2 lossess qualify as blowouts?

Posted
19 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

every metric rickyweed posts says we have to be 1 of the 3

But we are on the bubble, which means our fate is not in our hands and the committee can do whatever they want and justify it however they want.

It will be our own fault if we get left out and no one else’s. Because we had chances to win games and didn’t 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It will be our own fault if we get left out and no one else’s. Because we had chances to win games and didn’t 

Every team, and especially every bubble team, had chances to win games and didn't.  It's ridiculous to establish a standard (Q1/Q2 wins, for instance) and then ignore it.  That wouldn't be our fault.

Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Every team, and especially every bubble team, had chances to win games and didn't.  It's ridiculous to establish a standard (Q1/Q2 wins, for instance) and then ignore it.  That wouldn't be our fault.

Our non-conf SOS is 100% our fault. 

  • Rage+1 1
Posted
1 hour ago, linux said:

It's obvious that Texas is a better team than the entire bubble, recovering from injuries + talent + best tournament run (hot team). Means we would advance further on average than the rest of the bubble. We would play the higher seeded teams better as well.

That said it is nowhere even close to the standard demanded but we can walk and chew gum at the same time.

 

we are a Hot team for beating Vandy and Aggy?

1 minute ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

Honestly … that wouldn’t bother me in the least.  I don’t want anything to cloud the better judgment that we need to move in a new direction.

Just going to miss seeing Tre out there for one more game

Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Our non-conf SOS is 100% our fault. 

Totally irrelevant.  Our total SOS is all that should matter.  Looking at noncon SOS in a vacuum is stupid.

Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Our non-conf SOS is 100% our fault. 

Then Xavier, Indiana, and Boise State better not make the tournament either with their shit non-conference schedules. 

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Totally irrelevant.  Our total SOS is all that should matter.  Looking at noncon SOS in a vacuum is stupid.

It's stupid and several of the bubble teams also played bad non-conference schedules.

Better not include Xavier, Indiana, or Boise State in the tournament either. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
Posted

What it boils down to is they would rather put any of those other teams in rather than putting in the 14th SEC team.    Texas had to beat Tenn.  They won't be in.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Gotta disagree... late season losses at S.Carolina and at home vs jawja were ugly.

I know the committee says they don't take into account score but the way we lost those games was ugly, too.  just really bad losses.

Posted (edited)
Just now, chemHORN said:

What it boils down to is they would rather put any of those other teams in rather than putting in the 14th SEC team.    Texas had to beat Tenn.  They won't be in.  

Why should the committee be against putting in a 14th SEC team when it's the best conference in 20 years?

The SEC has been getting these number of teams in softball and wbb for years when they have dominant conferences. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
Posted
1 minute ago, chemHORN said:

What it boils down to is they would rather put any of those other teams in rather than putting in the 14th SEC team.    Texas had to beat Tenn.  They won't be in.  

agree.  people are whistling past the graveyard thinking that committees don't consider that all our Q1 wins are conf wins.  they get devalued somewhat because everyone knows you are going to beat some of those teams.  

I think our 3-5 Q2 record is a problem and an easy way to justify keeping us out along with the 14th SEC team. "sorry, maybe you shouldn't have come in 14th in a 16 team league".

Posted

The committee isn’t the same from year to year and sport to sport. So the SEC getting X number of teams in the tournament in other sports don’t matter here. 

Same for “well the committee did this with Y team in Z year, so they need to apply that to Texas this year.” No, the committee is a different committee which means different interpretations and different biases. 

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

agree.  people are whistling past the graveyard thinking that committees don't consider that all our Q1 wins are conf wins.  they get devalued somewhat because everyone knows you are going to beat some of those teams.  

 

Yeah but this is why the Mountain West shouldn't get all those teams in (specifically San Diego State and Boise State).

It's just a bunch of decent teams beating each other to get on the bubble. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

we are a Hot team for beating Vandy and Aggy?

Just going to miss seeing Tre out there for one more game

Compared to the rest of the bubble? yes.

Even playing Tenn tough with tired legs is impressive.

Posted
Just now, Pancho said:

The committee isn’t the same from year to year and sport to sport. So the SEC getting X number of teams in the tournament in other sports don’t matter here. 

Same for “well the committee did this with Y team in Z year, so they need to apply that to Texas this year.” No, the committee is a different committee which means different interpretations and different biases. 

 

 

Sure, different biases but the predictive metrics they use tell them that the SEC is the best conference in nearly 20 years.

If their justification for leaving Texas out is "we don't want 14 sec teams in the tournament" that's just stupid. Their own metrics (like Kenpom) tell them the SEC had an unprecedented year. 

Posted (edited)

This year's SEC finished with the highest Kenpom rating since '97. So actually almost 30 years.

The idea "14 SEC teams shouldn't make the tournament" is stupid as a criteria for this year. The SEC was fucking loaded this year. And guess what? The committee says they use Kenpom to guide their decision-making. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Yeah but this is why the Mountain West shouldn't get all those teams in (specifically San Diego State and Boise State).

It's just a bunch of decent teams beating each other to get on the bubble. 

I don't disagree.  all we needed to do was beat South Carolina and we looked like complete dogshit.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
1 minute ago, Rickylovesweed said:

This year's SEC finished with the highest Kenpom rating since '97. So actually almost 30 years.

The idea "14 SEC teams shouldn't make the tournament" is stupid as a criteria for this year. The SEC was fucking loaded this year. 

sure but we are talking about humans in a committee and in this tournament specifically there is a spread the wealth attitude.

I will say that the Tre Johnson factor could come in to play, again because humans.

  • Haha 1
Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

sure but we are talking about humans in a committee and in this tournament specifically there is a spread the wealth attitude.

I will say that the Tre Johnson factor could come in to play, again because humans.

Sure, that's why being on the bubble is your fault for getting left out. 

Human biases obviously come in play. But those biases are still dumb and specifically in the context of not including 14 teams from the SEC when it's the best conference in nearly 30 years. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Tre Johnson getting us in would be just as dumb as good wins + bad losses being ignored to leave us out.

of course it would.  welcome to the NCAA basketball tournament committee.

Posted
6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Tre Johnson getting us in would be just as dumb as good wins + bad losses being ignored to leave us out.

This is why I see no way you can justify UNC, Xavier, and Indiana getting in the field over Texas.

UNC has 1 win against an at-large team, Indiana has 2, and Xavier has 3. While we had 7. We had more wins over at-large teams than those 3 teams combined. They had plenty of opportunities to win more of those games too. 

How can you justify 2 of those teams maybe getting in over Texas? They beat nobody all year. 

Posted (edited)

we are 19-15 with THE worst ooc schedule in major college basketball, ranking 280th in the country. meanwhile UNC is a 22-13 team with a top 3 ooc schedule.

ooc UNC played kansas, auburn, michigan state, alabama, ucla, and florida

read that again

ooc UNC played kansas, auburn, michigan state, alabama, ucla, and florida

meanwhile, texas’s ooc schedule included houston christian, chicago state, mississippi valley state, delaware state, arkansas pine bluff, new orleans, and northwestern state

we are 19-15. what do you think our record would be if instead of scheduling the sisters of the poor we had an ooc schedule like unc’s? 17-17? 15-19?

the committee not only needs to leave us out of the tournament, they need to come on tv and specifically say that you don’t get rewarded for going 19-15 with the most pathetic schedule that anyone’s ever seen. period.

Edited by Derka
  • Like 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, Derka said:

we are 19-15 with THE worst ooc schedule in major college basketball, ranking 280th in the country. meanwhile UNC is a 22-13 team with a top 3 ooc schedule.

ooc UNC played kansas, auburn, michigan state, alabama, ucla, and florida

read that again

ooc UNC played kansas, auburn, michigan state, alabama, ucla, and florida

meanwhile, texas’s ooc schedule included houston christian, chicago state, mississippi valley state, delaware state, arkansas pine bluff, new orleans, and northwestern state

we are 19-15. what do you think our record would be if instead of scheduling the sisters of the poor we had an ooc schedule like unc’s? 17-17? 15-19?

the committee not only needs to leave us out of the tournament, they need to come on tv and specifically say that you don’t get rewarded for going 19-15 with the most pathetic schedule that anyone’s ever seen. period.

Perhaps we shouldn't have tried to game NET

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Derka said:

we are 19-15 with THE worst ooc schedule in major college basketball, ranking 280th in the country. meanwhile UNC is a 22-13 team with a top 3 ooc schedule.

ooc UNC played kansas, auburn, michigan state, alabama, ucla, and florida

read that again

ooc UNC played kansas, auburn, michigan state, alabama, ucla, and florida

meanwhile, texas’s ooc schedule included houston christian, chicago state, mississippi valley state, delaware state, arkansas pine bluff, new orleans, and northwestern state

we are 19-15. what do you think our record would be if instead of scheduling the sisters of the poor we had an ooc schedule like unc’s? 17-17? 15-19?

the committee not only needs to leave us out of the tournament, they need to come on tv and specifically say that you don’t get rewarded for going 19-15 with the most pathetic schedule that anyone’s ever seen. period.

So instead they send the message that you get rewarded for scheduling good teams and losing to them?

It's not whether you win against good teams like we did, it's whether you simply play against good teams and get beat by them like UNC did?

Edited by MotownHorn
Posted
9 minutes ago, Derka said:

 

ooc UNC played kansas, auburn, michigan state, alabama, ucla, and florida

meanwhile, texas’s ooc schedule included houston christian, chicago state, mississippi valley state, delaware state, arkansas pine bluff, new orleans, and northwestern state

 

Texas also played Ohio St, Syracuse, St Joes (should have been Tech), and UConn

And UNCs OOC schedule included Elon, Hawaii, American, Dayton, and La Salle

Doing a little cherry picking there

  • Hook 'Em 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...