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Houston Astros 2024 Season Thread


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8 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Chapman's 6/151 is the floor for Bregman.  Bregs is a year younger and compares favorably to Chapman across the board.  Would be a huge shift in tendencies for Crane to go for a contract like that.

I'm of the opinion that if someone Bregman's age can't work out a five year deal with his current team, he really doesn't want to be there anymore.

And that's OK.

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5 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Breggy wants 10 year deal at 30 mill. No way is he going to settle for half of what he wants. Sure some team will come in with 7 to 8 year deal and that's where he will go.

That's delusional.  He'll be 31 before the first year of that deal.  He's not a 28 yr-old just getting out from under team control.  That's the trade-off for getting paid during your arb years and extending early.

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6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What do you think his production will be at 36 and 37?

The numbers I proposed equate to a projection of ~20 WAR in first five years, 3 WAR in age 36 yr and 2.25 in age 37 yr.  

So far in his career, he has earned 39.4 WAR in the equivalent of 7 full seasons (accounting for partial rookie year, COVID year, and injury in 2021).  Over his 9 years with the MLB team, he produced $264M of value.  I know this isn't how this is calculated, but if the Astros offered a 7-year deal like I proposed, they are likely to still come out well ahead in the player value vs player contract calculation over the course of Bregman's career.  One could make the case that he's already earned ~$160M ( $264M value - $100M contract - 4 years of league minimum) of that $170M contract.  Again, no organization operates like this, but it's not an insane way to look at things.

Since 2021, he has averaged nearly 4.6 WAR/season - not up to his 2018 and 2019 production, but steady production over the past four seasons.  Outside of his two peak seasons, he has been remarkably consistent.  His compact swing and body type will likely hold up well.

I've always been a big Bregman fan and would love to keep him on the team, so I won't be one bit concerned if the Astros break tendency and pay him something like 7/170.   If someone else wants to pay him more for longer, more power to them and go get yours, Bregs.

 

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45 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What do you think his production will be at 36 and 37?

The last couple of years on most longer contracts are shitty anyway; I don’t know why that should be a hindrance.  
 

I’ve been moved into the “pay whatever the market requires” camp by the relative paucity of replacement candidates.  Particularly with a hole in LF, 1B, and ideally hunting an upgrade in CF.  

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7 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

The last couple of years on most longer contracts are shitty anyway; I don’t know why that should be a hindrance.  
 

I’ve been moved into the “pay whatever the market requires” camp by the relative paucity of replacement candidates.  Particularly with a hole in LF, 1B, and ideally hunting an upgrade in CF.  

Because you don't want to be stuck paying for a player who is no longer productive. 

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