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Iran attacks Israel attacks Iran

ztejas

By ztejas
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bolverk

bolverk 29835

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

One thing to ponder here is that Iran shot something like 350 missiles, drones, and other projectiles at Israel. Nearly all got shot down, but Iran has now established that option as a “reasonable” response and action, anything less will be viewed as not so serious.  
 

We saw in real time how Iron Dome normalized Hamas rocket attacks and established the expectation that Israel should suck it up and just hunker down defensively.  Israel will be highly inclined to set a difference precedent with Iran. If an embassy warrants 350 projectiles, how many does an attack on Iran proxies warrant? 20? 100?

This is not a sustainable game for us and Israel.  Deterrence has failed and Iran can’t learn the lesson that it can shoot missiles at Israel with no kinetic response. 

My hunch (hope) is that Iran doesn't hit back if Israel only goes after the proxies, based on Iranian statements so far.

Now, if Israel decides to take it to Iran proper, then all bets are off because each will want to hit the other back incrementally harder with every salvo. Israel clearly has the better air defense between the systems we've given them and the US/UK air forces hanging around. Can Israel bet that they know where all the missile sites and nuclear enrichment facilities are?

We've already stated we're not going to get involved with hitting Iran, but do we help if Hezbollah or Syria jump into the fray? Are the Russians still hanging around Syria to provide air defense? If so, what kind of assets do they have, and is there a risk of a direct confrontation between us and them in the skies over Syria?

At home here and in the EU, are there going to be sleeper cells that get activated? How much of a distraction would that all be in keeping NATO focused on assisting Ukraine, who's already unhappy that we haven't demonstrated air support to them like we just did for Israel?

So many questions.

 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11630

Posted
Posted

I think Israel is done. Iran has almost certainly moved anybody important into an embassy/consulate or back to Iran. And oh yeah, they need finish off Hamas and somehow restart their economy.

I’d argue that couldn’t handle another war. US reluctance to fund it, and if they hit Iran, Hezbollah is going to hit them with everything they have. I doubt they want to open a new war on at least 2 fronts. 

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34971

Posted
Posted

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/15/iran-israel-russia-drones-missiles/#
 

Quote

The weapons deals, some details of which have not been reported previously, are part of a broader collaboration that includes co-production of military drones inside Russia, the sharing of anti-jamming technology, and real-time battlefield assessments of weapons deployed against NATO-equipped forces in Ukraine, the intelligence officials and weapons experts said. The cooperation is reaping substantial benefits for both countries, while elevating Iran’s status from junior ally to strategic partner, they said.

“It’s no longer the patron-client dynamic, where Russia holds all the leverage,” said Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “The Iranians are accruing benefits from this change. The nature of their relationship has gone beyond just getting things. There’s knowledge transfer, there’s intangible gains.”

Intelligence officials described Russia as “advancing” agreements negotiated in secret to supply Iran with Su-35s, one of Russia’s most capable fighter-bombers and a potentially dramatic upgrade for an Iranian air force that consists mainly of rebuilt U.S. and Soviet aircraft dating from before 1979. Russia also pledged to provide technical help with Iranian spy satellites as well as assistance in building rockets to put more satellites into space, the officials said.

There is no public evidence that Su-35s have been delivered; the holdup may be a delay by Iran in paying for the planes, according to a U.S. and a Middle Eastern intelligence official with detailed knowledge of the deal.

I’d very much like to see Israeli F-35s absolutely dominating Iranian Su-35s. 

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34971

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Iran is an irrelevant blip for "us", no need to act as if Israel's defense is tied up with America's national security. 

CENTCOM’s response to Iran’s attack is concrete evidence otherwise but it’s neat to live in an alt-timeline where it didn’t happen I guess. 

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

CENTCOM’s response to Iran’s attack is concrete evidence otherwise but it’s neat to live in an alt-timeline where it didn’t happen I guess. 

we know that happened, but it's unnecessary for practical purposes - more of a political move.  Jordan provided protection also, for the same political reason. 

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Samson's Wig

Samson's Wig 3199

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Victorious1 said:

The only countries that play by the "rules of the game" are USA, UK, France, Germany and to a degree USSR.  

Do you remember the '72 Olympics in Munich?  Black September kidnapped Israeli athletes from the Olympic Village and things went south.  What was Israel's response?  They sent the Mossad after the Black September members and killed them to send a message...'you don't play by the rules and neither do we".

Remember the Vietnam War?  The US played by the rules but the enemy did not and we pretty much got our asses kicked. 

What do you think would happen to Israel in the Middle East if they "played by the rules" while Iran and everyone else played their own game?

 

200.gif

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1442

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think Israel is done. Iran has almost certainly moved anybody important into an embassy/consulate or back to Iran. And oh yeah, they need finish off Hamas and somehow restart their economy.

I’d argue that couldn’t handle another war. US reluctance to fund it, and if they hit Iran, Hezbollah is going to hit them with everything they have. I doubt they want to open a new war on at least 2 fronts. 

They can easily handle a “war” in Gaza, a “war” in Lebanon, and the real war against Iran in mainland Iran against a nuclear paper tiger. 

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Brian Fantana

Brian Fantana 6711

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They can easily handle a “war” in Gaza, a “war” in Lebanon, and the real war against Iran in mainland Iran against a nuclear paper tiger. 

Not without US support. If you think we're going to back anyone in a boots on the ground war in Iran you are out of your fucking mind.

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1442

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Not without US support. If you think we're going to back anyone in a boots on the ground war in Iran you are out of your fucking mind.

They can without US support. Certainly without our putting fucking boots on the ground in Iran, which nobody suggested and is an insane proposition. 

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Braff Zacklin

Braff Zacklin 13672

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They can without US support. Certainly without our putting fucking boots on the ground in Iran, which nobody suggested and is an insane proposition. 

So you're contending that Israel--a nation of less than 10M people--could "easily" handle a land invasion of Iran, a nation with nearly 10 times the population and with several countries and/or bodies of water between it and Israel?

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1442

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

So you're contending that Israel--a nation of less than 10M people--could "easily" handle a land invasion of Iran, a nation with nearly 10 times the population and with several countries and/or bodies of water between it and Israel?

Yes. At least get Iran to agree to a ceasefire and get it to (temporarily) cease funding terror campaigns. I’m not sure some of yall realize how bad ass Israeli military is. Head to head, Israel would absolutely obliterate Iran. Is this a real question?

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Braff Zacklin

Braff Zacklin 13672

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Yes. At least get Iran to agree to a ceasefire and get it to (temporarily) cease funding terror campaigns. I’m not sure some of yall realize how bad ass Israeli military is. Head to head, Israel would absolutely obliterate Iran. Is this a real question?

And how do you imagine Israel will get boots on the ground in Iran? Do you genuinely believe Jordan, Syria, Iraq or other Muslim nations would simply allow Israel unfettered access to their airspace, or that they'd be OK with columns of Israeli tanks and troops driving through their borders?

Israel doesn't have much of an amphibious surface fleet AFAIK, and it's not as if Egypt would allow one passage through the Suez, anyway. But the thought of an Israeli invasion force slowly working its way around the Arabian Peninsula definitely brings the chuckles.

This is entertaining, so please keep the answers coming.

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1442

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Braff Zacklin said:

And how do you imagine Israel will get boots on the ground in Iran? Do you genuinely believe Jordan, Syria, Iraq or other Muslim nations would simply allow Israel unfettered access to their airspace, or that they'd be OK with columns of Israeli tanks and troops driving through their borders?

Israel doesn't have much of an amphibious surface fleet AFAIK, and it's not as if Egypt would allow one passage through the Suez, anyway. But the thought of an Israeli invasion force slowly working its way around the Arabian Peninsula definitely brings the chuckles.

This is entertaining, so please keep the answers coming.

I never said their feet would touch the ground. They don’t need to. 

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Bevo

Bevo 13655

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

And how do you imagine Israel will get boots on the ground in Iran? Do you genuinely believe Jordan, Syria, Iraq or other Muslim nations would simply allow Israel unfettered access to their airspace, or that they'd be OK with columns of Israeli tanks and troops driving through their borders?

Same way my neighbors were okay with me trenching their yards on the way to and from HEB. When it is midnight and you absolutely, positively have to get some Doritos.

Edited by Bevo
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Brian Fantana

Brian Fantana 6711

Posted
Posted
Just now, Rex Kramer said:

I never said their feet would touch the ground. They don’t need to. 

The discussion is literally about invasion. What do you think that entails?

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

And yes, they’d have unfettered access to Iran. 

You're out of your fucking mind. Did you just learn the middle east exists last week?

Will Ferrell Crazy Pills GIF

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1442

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

The discussion is literally about invasion. What do you think that entails?

You're out of your fucking mind. Did you just learn the middle east exists last week?

Will Ferrell Crazy Pills GIF

Not boots on ground. If you don’t think Israelis can navigate around Jordanian and Iraqi air space, you’re taking crazy pills. 

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Rex is talking about the same military that let Hamas wander into their homes and spend hours slaughtering civilians a few months ago.  

Yes, an asleep-at-the-wheel disengaged military. They’re now fully engaged. Do yall doubt their capabilities?

Edited by Rex Kramer
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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

National security is politics. 

There are practical politics and symbolic politics (ie Jordan's actions as one example). Israel doesn't need US military personnel engaging their enemies, perfectly capable of utterly smashing all of them in quick time - witness the last 75 years. 

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utee94

utee94 15897

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Yes. At least get Iran to agree to a ceasefire and get it to (temporarily) cease funding terror campaigns. I’m not sure some of yall realize how bad ass Israeli military is. Head to head, Israel would absolutely obliterate Iran. Is this a real question?

Actual photo of Israeli army massing right now:

 

image.png.2a89d2b6512d88a36e2a8fcef4b1965b.png

 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15413

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30 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Yes, an asleep-at-the-wheel disengaged military. They’re now fully engaged. Do yall doubt their capabilities?

Look at the only Israeli designed MBT (Merkava) to get a little insight into how their military is structured.  Small unit tactics and training, they are exceptional.  Intel gathering and FFF (find, fix, finish), they are exceptional.  

If you expand that out to "big army", see my Merkava example - it is all predicated on the defense of their land.  The Iron Dome - a defensive system.  The Merkava, a defensive-minded tank designed with the engine in the front and a fixed cannon for static, defensive scenarios.  They enact their defenses much like the Americans did in the battle of the bulge.  Quick transitions of firepower moved along multiple axis' to coordinate and maneuver firepower as needed.  This draws from past experiences of fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts.  After taking advantage of gains, they did take the Sinai Peninsula.  The point being they are not designed for sustained, offensive invasion-style attacks over such a significant amount of land & time.  

The second they tried this, the biggest fear would be attacks from the rear from the usual suspects that they defend against today.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105633

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Yeah, read that the other day.  Really good piece with some interesting insight into what should be a perilous time in Iran....but won't be.  Like everywhere on earth in this current timeline, the hard right hardliners will end up winning, because rational moderates get steamrolled.  And the Iranian people just don't have what it takes to do what is necessary: kill the fascists.

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1442

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Posted
45 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

The point being they are not designed for sustained, offensive invasion-style attacks over such a significant amount of land & time.  

They don’t need this. If they throw the might of their Air Force at the Iranians, and drone the shit out of them, they will capitulate, and quickly. There’s a reason they haven’t done this, but they’re considering it on an increasing basis. If they did they’d rout those pig fuckers in weeks and possibly days. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15413

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

They don’t need this. If they throw the might of their Air Force at the Iranians, and drone the shit out of them, they will capitulate, and quickly. There’s a reason they haven’t done this, but they’re considering it on an increasing basis. If they did they’d rout those pig fuckers in weeks and possibly days. 

History books say otherwise - sustained air attacks without commensurate pressure from the ground only serve to galvanize the attacked.  There's a reason for the phrase that only the infantry win wars.  

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Brian Fantana

Brian Fantana 6711

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

They don’t need this. If they throw the might of their Air Force at the Iranians, and drone the shit out of them, they will capitulate, and quickly. There’s a reason they haven’t done this, but they’re considering it on an increasing basis. If they did they’d rout those pig fuckers in weeks and possibly days. 

I wish I was crazy enough to be this confidently wrong.

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Bevo

Bevo 13655

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, read that the other day.  Really good piece with some interesting insight into what should be a perilous time in Iran....but won't be.  Like everywhere on earth in this current timeline, the hard right hardliners will end up winning, because rational moderates get steamrolled.  And the Iranian people just don't have what it takes to do what is necessary: kill the fascists.

What's interesting in the link I provided yesterday, the Iranian revolution was of intellectuals and non-right wingers - they got hoodwinked.

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Bevo

Bevo 13655

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Born to Run said:
28 minutes ago, Bevo said:
 
If the elbow is tucked in, it is perfectly legal.

What about in left field?

 

In left field or out of left field? It makes a big difference. Plus it could cause cross-sport metaphors which are bad so don't.

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NWBuck

NWBuck 8593

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Bevo said:

Same way my neighbors were okay with me trenching their yards on the way to and from HEB. When it is midnight and you absolutely, positively have to get some Doritos.

Wait... The HEB in Tehran is open at midnight?

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