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Transfer Cycle 2024-2025 - I'm with Stupid


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3 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Remember in 2022 when Sark would have Quinn throwing deep like crazy because he was still thinking he had a Mac Jones/Tua Type of arm? Then by the end of the season he dialed it way back because Quinn couldn't hit the side of a barn. 

I'm sure he, like everyone here, was thinking he just needs experience to develop that part of his game. The problem was he never developed it. As long as Arch keeps developing, and there's no reason to think he won't, it'll be a huge difference. If Sark can keep double digit NFL draft pick types of teams around Arch like he did Quinn the team will level up. 

Would trade Muhammad for Downs in an instant. One of Wardell Mack or Kobe Black will be ready to step up, and I have faith we can tamper another corner into the portal in the spring. Muhammad's transactional nature about everything is grating on the nerves. He's been paid very well for what he brings but acts like he's being ripped off. We'd know by any transfer portal guys by Friday night at the latest

I don’t blame MM for trying to maximize how much he makes. He’s been solid thus far and by all accounts is a student of the game. Hoping he sticks around and plays well enough to be 3 and done. 

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36 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Well, some people have been working and donating their asses off over the past few days to prevent the collapse of the roster for 2025 for Texas. What do they get in exchange for that? Folks mocking concerns over NIL and the portal and speaking in certitude about the roster's future state against that of any college football alternative. Do not take where things sit for granted. The spring portal should be viewed as both enemy and opportunity on the horizon.

🤘 Huge thanks go to the team and donors keeping everything together for another run. Sark has some work to do in the offseason on game management and a few other on field things. But he knows how to work the process behind the scenes and let his action do the talking. If this were the Herman era, we'd be hearing every other day about how hard it is and how he's sleeping in his office to save money for NIL. 

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30 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

To confirm that he's pulled away from the ledge to the staff, team, and those out there trying to lure him away.

Vegas, posters here, neutral observers all assume Texas is a top 5 team as the floor barring injuries based on what we know now. Beyond that, Texas could be the best roster in the country, and I don't see many naysayers offering up a challenge to that here, but that isn't a credible claim until we get to May 1. 

Humans are terrible about speaking with certainty regarding the future, so you should doubt yourself plenty. We don't know shit about August right now. Sarkisian's potentially speaking to NFL teams and so are Ryan Day and Dan Lanning. Any one of those guys going pro could lead to elite roster upheaval that benefits the others or someone else swooping in. 

More teams than OSU and Texas are worthy of examination. Each portal cycle is somewhat unprecedented in its own way. The spring window last year was kind of a nothing thing nationally. Maybe that's the same this time. Or maybe OSU is sitting there with $15M to commit and they decide they're going to blow it on 7 players at key spots from the other best teams in the country. Or Michigan or Oregon do that. Maybe Auburn goes bonkers again or SoCal does. 

It's not a rebel thing to say that Texas could have the best roster in the country for 2025. It's a fan thing and that's fine. I hope that's the case as well, but there are a fuckton of variables here. 

This thread reminds me of the duck illusion and some of Taleb's writing on asymmetry of information and also the problems with the asymmetry, in some instances, of risk/reward.

Regarding the duck, everything about the little guy looks calm on the surface as he swims by you. Meanwhile, he's working his ass off underneath the service as he's paddling by to get from point a to point b.

Taleb's written quite a bit about how a lack of shared knowledge can still critically skew the perceptions of people within the same tribe or affiliation. That leads to wild surprises and division among the ranks, so addressing it proactively is often helpful. Sometimes it is unavoidable.

Similarly but on a different problem is the lack of credit populations provide to people or organizations who prevent disasters from occurring, and therefore there's also an incentive or reward problem. How many 9/11s have been avoided? How many forest fires avoided with preventive maintenance (this example has been part of the discussion long before the Cali tragedy lately, so no CR intended)? How much future damage at a global is being mitigated by productive climate change prevention efforts today and how much future cost of money and life is that in future terms (again no CR)? We don't really know because they're non-outcomes, and therefore we often fall into the logic trap of thinking because something didn't happen, it was never at risk of happening in the first place. 

What in the fuck does that have to do with this discussion? Well, some people have been working and donating their asses off over the past few days to prevent the collapse of the roster for 2025 for Texas. What do they get in exchange for that? Folks mocking concerns over NIL and the portal and speaking in certitude about the roster's future state against that of any college football alternative. Do not take where things sit for granted. The spring portal should be viewed as both enemy and opportunity on the horizon.

Nothing you are saying is wrong.  When I say I'm looking into the future and could be wrong on this, but I doubt it- I'm not saying I'm never wrong, or even merely wrong, what I'm saying is that I think, shit not falling apart, it's more likely than not that Texas has the most talented roster in the country going into the 2025 season. Could that change? Of course.  But I doubt it.  I think the roster is better May 1 than it is today, and I think today it's better than anyone else's. Could that change? Sure. 
What I'm saying is that I know the duck is paddling hard under water (and damn do I appreciate it) and I'm speculating that it continues to go down that way and we are in really good shape. If I'm speculating on the future (which is the whole point of this thread) I bet we don't lose anyone on the two deep after spring ball and we add at least 1 impact level all conference player (hopefully at WR- maybe at CB) and 2 or 3 depth pieces (likely interior DL or maybe one there, a kicker and a TE if Washington isn't the dude I think/expect him to be).  

Anyone mocking concerns over NIL should be instead mocked and ridiculed b/c they clearly are dipshits.  The counterfactual shit you talk about is fascinating. I was having almost this exact same conversation with my wife (over a political subject so I won't bring it up) last night over cocktails as we were talking about how one outcome doesn't have to be good in the real world to be a good decision b/c it might have prevented another worse option in it's place.  

End of the day we have 3 AA's (maybe 4) either returning (Taafe & Hill) or almost certain to be if healthy (Simmons) on Defense, plus another 4 or 5 2026 draft picks beyond those 3 (likely) in Burke, Moore (if he's back), Manny, Guilbeu, and a shit ton of really talented freshmen from the #1 class. On Offense it's the Vegas odds favorite for the Heisman at QB, Wingo who should be a hoss, plus whatever other talent we can pick up in the portal, and a bunch of 5 star WR frosh coming in and what looks like a decent OL that will be a step back but still pretty solid.  There are lots of people on this site that project doom and gloom and negativity onto everything, or act like if we don't have a returning AA at every position coming back we suck, without looking at the context of a very manageable schedule and a decided talent advantage over almost everyone on the schedule, and an experience edge on the 2 teams we don't have a decided talent advantage over in GA and OSU.  But yeah- if Sark goes pro or some shit blows up in the locker room than I'm wrong and I will be very very sad.  But, I'm on a 3 year heater of saying the arrow is pointed directly up, the nay sayers are wrong etc and I'm going to go ahead and continue to bet that trend.  

None of this is saying anything you are saying is wrong and I enjoyed reading that- I'm just fleshing out what I mean when I say "I doubt I'm wrong" and recoginizing that there is shit that could derail it but I'm betting against that shit happening.

 

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38 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Mark Cuban got rich selling the streaming platform he helped to create. The reason he got involved in Broadcast.com was so that he could listen to Indiana Hoosiers basketball games. I'm guessing if he had any extra cash in his couch cushions, he's giving it to IU basketball.  

 

Cuban has helped Indiana.  Don't know how much.

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10 minutes ago, TexasRenegade said:

I'd say where is Jim Bob Moffett when we need him....but upon further reflection his net worth was only just shy $100 million....

One of his grandsons is QB Cole Lourd on the football team. He even engineered a TD drive during the last spring game.

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Oh I laughed bc they already did make a $40m donation like 7 months ago. Not to NIL, but they absolutely already support UT athletics 

 

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

They've given to NIL as well. 

Not at a Musk level though...at least that's what I gather from this last ten-page abortion I just read

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1 hour ago, irishtexan said:

Mark Cuban got rich selling the streaming platform he helped to create. The reason he got involved in Broadcast.com was so that he could listen to Indiana Hoosiers basketball games. I'm guessing if he had any extra cash in his couch cushions, he's giving it to IU basketball.  

 

He already gave them 5m plus whatever else he's given over the years. That doesn't cover the 6m for rugby (?)

 

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And

IMG_9841.thumb.jpeg.14911fc4793da83316fb4cb47b49602d.jpeg

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34 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I see others laughing, but just to be clear, this is a joke I'm just not getting, right?

How could anyone be sure they donated??My eyesight is poor though, if they have any public naming rights it would help to increase the font size or put it in a more prominent location 

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31 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Yeah, same. Those guys have been huge for Texas, along a few others.

I presume the joke is because they’ve already made such large contributions.  I know they would be very happy if other contributors would take the torch, especially O&G alumni who historically contribute to Bellmont.  

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12 minutes ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

How could anyone be sure they donated??My eyesight is poor though, if they have any public naming rights it would help to increase the font size or put it in a more prominent location 

Ok, this is definitely a bit. 

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