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Transfer Cycle 2024-2025 - It's Time For You Dorks To Worry About the Numbers

closetojumping
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Sock Monkey

Sock Monkey 722

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1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

The problem for players using the spring window is that it increases their inability to crack the two deep elsewhere significantly. People around players are now telling players that if they're going to leave a team, they need to do it in the winter window. 

That makes sense. Selfishly, I'm just not ready to give up on those three developing into dudes.

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Park Gothic

Park Gothic 5066

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20 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

This is very difficult.

Justice Finkley

Warren Roberson

Derion Gullette 

Tausili Akana

Malik Agbo

Freddie DuBose

Connor Stroh

Colton Vasek

I could only get to eight ...

I don't see Finkley leaving. Dude is here for an education and is playing football as a means to an end. Unless he "transfers" to med school early, I think he's just happy to be here.

Warren Roberson is a true sophomore and got some play earlier in the season. He could leave but I think it's more likely that he'll stay with the expectation that he will contribute more next season. 

The staff clearly likes both Stroh and Vasek, I don't know why either would leave when spots look like they'll open up next season. 

I agree that Gullette, Akana, Agbo, and DuBose are all risks. I would add Jaray Bledsoe, Aaron Bryan, Sydir Michell (maybe? not sure what's going on there), Jordon Johnson-Rubell, and Amari Niblack. Plus maybe Neto Umeozulu if it doesn't look like he'll start next season. 

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Park Gothic

Park Gothic 5066

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10 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

I’m somewhat surprised Bledsoe never panned out. Gerry always spoke of him as having as high an upside athletically as anyone in his class. 

Me too - he was one of my favorite recruits in the 2022 class. I thought once he had some time under the staff that his natural athleticism would set him apart. Really disappointing. 

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Herbie Hancock

Herbie Hancock 7373

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I’ve said it several times before, including last year at this time when everyone thought he would bail, but Cojoe isn’t going anywhere until he gets his degree. Even then I would be kind of surprised if he left. Kid has his head on straight and has good people in his corner. His mom is the opposite of MuthaHustla or whatever that nutty broad called herself.

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MuellerHorn

MuellerHorn 4290

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15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Given that the roster is deep and talented, there just aren't many losses that will feel great. Objectively, that's just how it is going to go if the current staff continues to do well with roster management. 

I assume:

1-2 DEs - Akana, Finkley

2 DTs - Bledsoe, Mitchell, Bryant

1 S - Roberson

1 LB - Gullette (he tried to leave last year)

2 OL - Cajoe, Chatman, Stroh, Agbo

1-2 WRs - Dubose, Butler

1 TE - Niblack, Shannon, Randle

1 P/K - Kern

I haven't heard anything about any of them, but they'd all have reasons to leave, or, also likely for many of them, they're all candidates for a trap door too. 

 

What's crazy is that Texas is at the point that none of those really feel all that bad. The TE room will need an influx of talent, especially if Niblack and/or Shannon leave with Gunnar and Davis also departing. Granted, they've thrown numbers there with the freshman class. My question is how ready any of those pieces will be - especially from a blocking perspective.

I don't like losing OL depth, but Texas has good depth there anyways.

Otherwise, losing those pieces and upgrading overall seems like another huge off-season portal net gain.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14773

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You guys wanting to push IDLs into the portal are stupid. I mean shit, with the development we have seen at that position in the last 2 seasons, you'd might consider that it takes time for most IDL to be quality rotation players. Sweat, Coburn, Murphy, Collins, and Broughton all took until their upperclassmen seasons to transform into quality IDL.

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MuellerHorn

MuellerHorn 4290

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4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

You guys wanting to push IDLs into the portal are stupid. I mean shit, with the development we have seen at that position in the last 2 seasons, you'd might consider that it takes time for most IDL to be quality rotation players. Sweat, Coburn, Murphy, Collins, and Broughton all took until their upperclassmen seasons to transform into quality IDL.

Did anyone here in the last 45 minutes say they wanted to push IDL to the portal? We're just speculating on who Bobby was referring to.

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Tex-19

Tex-19 2882

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Idk who leaves but my needs list would be 3 DTs, 1 S, 1-2 WRs (depending on Golden decision), and 1 OT (the inexperience there is scary, and then imagine someone getting hurt)

Just now, texifornia said:

Relevant question - what's the starting OL look like next year?

Goosby - [offseason competition winner between Stroh / Chatman / Cojoe / ???] - Cruz or Robertson - Campbell - Baker sound right?

Neto at LG right? And Hutson gotta factor in somehow. Maybe he goes to LG or C

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texifornia

texifornia 57091

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2 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:

Idk who leaves but my needs list would be 3 DTs, 1 S, 1-2 WRs (depending on Golden decision), and 1 OT (the inexperience there is scary, and then imagine someone getting hurt)

Neto at LG right? And Hutson gotta factor in somehow. Maybe he goes to LG or C

I forgot about Hutson and Neto. I need coffee. Neither seems like a guarantee, but we know Flood likes Hutson.

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Red Five

Red Five 40887

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4 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Relevant question - what's the starting OL look like next year?

Goosby - [offseason competition winner between Stroh / Chatman / Cojoe / ???] - Cruz or Robertson - Campbell - Baker sound right?

Chalk would be Goosby-Neto-Hutson-Campbell-Baker I would think. 

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MuellerHorn

MuellerHorn 4290

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6 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:

Idk who leaves but my needs list would be 3 DTs

Definitely. They took three this year and had Collins and Broughton coming back. Even with the concerns about returning production this year, I'd call it even worse next year. January seems to have an obvious upward trajectory, but that's basically it as far as seemingly sure things.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62839

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Is Robertson just in the dust bin at this point? I haven't given OL much of a thought, either. I feel like that position group is finally being handled about as well as we could dream. Guys are getting years of development before being forced to play, they're all huge, and they go 3 deep. Whoever's starting is likely to be pretty fucking good. I know they think Goosby could be a one and done guy, right after Banks and Williams go in the top 50 picks. 

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21353

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41 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

The staff clearly likes both Stroh and Vasek, I don't know why either would leave when spots look like they'll open up next season. 

I mean, can we confidently say the staff likes Stroh when he hasn’t even touched the field in two years here? Cojoe, Chatman and Goosby are all ahead of him in the pecking order in his own class as things currently stand.

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21353

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3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Thinking OL.... if we lose Banks and Williams to the NFL, and then either Chatman or Cojoe portals, we will need to be in the market for a portal OT. Maybe even if neither portal. 

Probably, but it’s already hard enough to get portal offensive tackles as it is and you would be trying to find one willing to come in and compete for a starting job or be content with being the first tackle off the bench. 
 

Easier said than done.

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21353

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5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Also on one of the C&F streams Bobby's way to early projected starting 5 next year on OL was:


LT Goosby
LG Neto
C Hutson
RG DJ Campbell
RT Brandon Baker

I would feel fairly confident in that interior. Wild to think Neto was the same class as Campbell/Banks/Williams and would just be seeing his first significant action as a redshirt junior. But the reports on him seem to be good.

It’s just an odd roster cycle at a position where you have 5 starters to have 4 of them departing after this year.

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Red Five

Red Five 40887

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11 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Probably, but it’s already hard enough to get portal offensive tackles as it is and you would be trying to find one willing to come in and compete for a starting job or be content with being the first tackle off the bench. 
 

Easier said than done.

Unless I'm missing someone, if one of those guys portals then that leaves three scholarship OTs, before you count incoming freshmen. Seems like bad idea jeans. 

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 40004

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2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I'm glad @closetojumping feels optimistic but this looks rough to me. Expecting some growing pains next year for sure.

Why? It's not like we're rolling out true freshmen across the board....we're installing guys who have been in the S&C program and have gotten good reps as backups. 

 

With that potential starting 

LT - RS Sophomore(played in 2+ games) - 6'7 315 lbs
LG - RS Junior(Played in 5+ games) - 6'4 330 lbs
C - Senior(13 starts) - 6'5 310 lbs
RG - Senior(20+ starts) - 6'3 330 lbs
RT - True Sophomore that was backup RT as a true freshmen - 6'4 315 lbs

1 3rd year player
3 4th year players
1 2nd year player

 

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walker

walker 175

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46 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Why?

100% agree.  This guy is a freshman and is already playing.  Why would he transfer already?   

Out of the freshman DBs, he seems to be playing way more than Filsame.  Black is playing corner, Mack is playing nickel.  He seems to have a path

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62839

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7 minutes ago, walker said:

Probably Nibblet, who seems great on special teams, but unlikely to break into the rotation at this point.  

They like Niblett, so losing him seems like it would be a blow. They usually hang on to the guys they want, and he wouldn't be expensive to retain. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62839

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24 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I'm glad @closetojumping feels optimistic but this looks rough to me. Expecting some growing pains next year for sure.

Growing pains? Of course. It would be absurd to expect to replace 4 starters on a Moore finalist OL and not have some growing pains. That's especially true when two of the guys the program will be losing are probable 1st round picks. 

That said, there's no reason to not expect the unit to be pretty damned good anyway. The OL coach and S&C program are proven and most of the players will have plenty of experience. I don't worry much about ranking on the OL. The $9.95ers miss on OL by a dramatically wider percentage than almost any other position on the field. Goosby was a high school basketball player with a ton of athleticism. He'd be fine starting this year except for the fact that there's a top 15 draft pick in front of him. Baker actually was highly rated along with Campbell and Neto. 

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irishtexan

irishtexan 11522

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Is the consensus now that DJ Campbell is returning for his senior year? Earlier this season I seem to recall reading the staff was expecting a total overhaul of the OL after this season. At the time, and still today, I thought it was absurd that Campbell would enter the draft. Guess he's come to his senses? 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62839

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5 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Is the consensus now that DJ Campbell is returning for his senior year? Earlier this season I seem to recall reading the staff was expecting a total overhaul of the OL after this season. At the time, and still today, I thought it was absurd that Campbell would enter the draft. Guess he's come to his senses? 

Everyone thinks in certainties at their own peril for the next month with recruiting and transfers. I’m assuming very little and being optimistic nonetheless. 

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Park Gothic

Park Gothic 5066

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1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Why?

I'm prejudiced against hyphens. Or I got him mixed up with Filsame. But probably the former. 

1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

I mean, can we confidently say the staff likes Stroh when he hasn’t even touched the field in two years here? Cojoe, Chatman and Goosby are all ahead of him in the pecking order in his own class as things currently stand.

I'm basing this on what people have reported about him and his own statements about his development curve. I don't know how "confidently" I can say that the staff likes him, but the vibes seem good based on what I've read and heard. Good OL are hard to fine, he has connections to A&M, so maybe someone will try to tamper with him and succeed. But if we're just spitballing, I lean more towards him staying until I hear something new. 

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

I'm glad @closetojumping feels optimistic but this looks rough to me. Expecting some growing pains next year for sure.

The only think to be "pessimistic" about is that there is no Kelvin Banks. But those players only come around once every several years. That starting line up for next season looks about as good as one could reasonably expect. Maybe there will be some growing pains, but that still looks like a solid OL. It would literally be better than any OL we had under Chuck or Turtle. 

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BornAndRaised

BornAndRaised 12310

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1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

You guys wanting to push IDLs into the portal are stupid. I mean shit, with the development we have seen at that position in the last 2 seasons, you'd might consider that it takes time for most IDL to be quality rotation players. Sweat, Coburn, Murphy, Collins, and Broughton all took until their upperclassmen seasons to transform into quality IDL.

Exactly how I felt about it, just based on the improvement for Mitchell in the past few weeks makes me think the staff won’t be quick to push anyone on the line out. That being said I could see Akana and Gillette leaving even though I’d hate it. Log jam there at the moment.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48167

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48 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

The '22 OL class was incredibly pivotal to where the team is today. 

You're welcome.

It's just hard for me to get concerned about the OL for all of the reasons that have been stated above. Additionally, they'll probably be aided to some degree by a QB who can hit the fucking deep ball, much less is an actual running threat, and DCs being consistently less aggressive than they have to be with Ewers. I also would think if Robertsons doesn't win the C job, he's a starting Guard. And I'd love for Cruz to be ready. 

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 12506

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JJR. - He's already been playing and playing well

Butler - he's been the scout team QB and will play next season. He's red shirting 

Shannon/Randle - Shannon has been mentioned as coming along well, it was always the case that Randle will get his chance after Helm/Davis leave. He needed to bulk up/add muscle 

Neto - It's his turn at LG

Cole - knew he was red shirting since Holmes is done, and he's up next 

Aren't leaving 

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utexas8

utexas8 1466

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Ah, yes. Clearly a graduate of the Jahdae Barron School of Negotiation Fuckery. 
If we successfully placated Barron (time, after time, after time), I'm not super concerned about our ability to keep Manny. 

Was it multiple times? I just remember his freshman or rs freshman year Oregon wanted him and he wasn’t even that good yet. Thankfully we held on to him
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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18569

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2 hours ago, BornAndRaised said:

Exactly how I felt about it, just based on the improvement for Mitchell in the past few weeks makes me think the staff won’t be quick to push anyone on the line out. That being said I could see Akana and Gillette leaving even though I’d hate it. Log jam there at the moment.

Seeing Mitchell get meaningful snaps recently has been one of the bigger roster surprises of the season. Lord knows they need all the help they can get on that interior dline next year.

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