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Transfer Cycle 2024-2025 - JFC


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6 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I mean, he came about as close to single-handedly ending our season as it's possible for an OL to do. Overall good player for us, but I could see how someone might still be a bit salty about that less than 4 days after it happened.

Perhaps he wasn't the best option to be on the field. That is a coaching issue.

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13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's kind of comical that the SEC decided to block in-conference transfers in the second window period later this spring. This isn't 2015 any more. The teams spending the ridiculous amounts on players are no longer located anywhere within that conference except for the state of Texas. The giant schools within the Big 10 are the actual threat now, dummies. 

It's also interesting that the volume of money allocated in acquisition has gone in a lopsided manner towards the portal versus high school for many schools. 5 stars will still paid, but the real money is set up for producers at the CFB level. That will probably accelerate. We all speculated on this premise and now it is coming to fruition.

All we need is one player from one SEC team to sue.  I seriously doubt that restriction would hold up.  Would prefer it not be a player that is transferring to Texas.  We get enough shit for other dumbasses about ruining conferences.

Though if we are going to be called the villain no matter what, might as well actually be the villain.

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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's kind of comical that the SEC decided to block in-conference transfers in the second window period later this spring. This isn't 2015 any more. The teams spending the ridiculous amounts on players are no longer located anywhere within that conference except for the state of Texas. The giant schools within the Big 10 are the actual threat now, dummies. 

It's also interesting that the volume of money allocated in acquisition has gone in a lopsided manner towards the portal versus high school for many schools. 5 stars will still paid, but the real money is set up for producers at the CFB level. That will probably accelerate. We all speculated on this premise and now it is coming to fruition.

That was inevitable I think and I’ve been arguing it as the endpoint since the beginning of NiL. The rookie of the year is almost never in contention for MVP, so why would teams pay anyone with a 50% bust chance when they could get someone that’s already proven not to be a bust?  It’s never going to be 100/0 bc you need baseline stability,  it if given the chance to pay a high school blue chip 1M to get his freshman year (and the. Have to renegotiate)or go pay an all sec or all big 10 guy 1M to get his contract year it’s not even close to a decision to me. 
Freahman recruiting is still valuable (for now) to have the home field advantage in retention when it comes time to figure out market value later on in time, and because human beings are generally lazy and prefer inertia to change, but the more common transfers of successful players out from blue bloods become the less valuable either of those two advantages are. 
The good news (for high schoolers in the future anyway) is that the fewer of them that get paid now will lead to more getting paid later as that will become a money ball competitive advantage. 
Texas, to me anyway, should play this as an early majority with our advantages etc. Boise state types should be the innovators and big 12/ACC/middle tier sec and big 10 schools should be early adopters. Anyone with prestige, money and history should be monitoring the back and forth such that they are in the early majority with a foot in both camps for money to be the largest possible advantage. 
 

if I had to speculate I’d bet 3-5 years from now the ideal mix in the starting 22 would be something like 12-15 transfers for Texas, but some of those transfers coming aggressively after year 1 at a lower level school that you recruit in to then develop/retain. 
 

this year we started 3 transfers on offense and 2 on defense. That seems light to me especially in light of the fact that all 5 transfers will be on the nfl.  I could be wrong and that number could ultimately be too high at 13 and maybe settled at 8-11 or something, but it’s going to be higher than 5 in the future I’d almost guarantee. 

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So taking a step back and looking at our big picture needs...

Offense:

  • QB - All set
  • RB - Opinions vary. Depends a lot on how Baxter bounces back and whether Gibson can get back in the trust tree. I lean toward saying we need 1.
  • TE - Is Niblack coming back? He didn't do much this year but at least he's a body. Could use 1 but hard to see devoting a lot of resources here.
  • WR - Chatter picking up steam that we like what we have. Maybe the price tag for true difference makers is too beaucoup? Need 1-2.
  • OL - Tackle looks set if Goosby and Baker stick around. Seems like they'd add experience on the interior if they could.

Defense:

  • DE - Looks good with Moore coming back and Simmons staying.
  • DT - Added two guys that should contribute. One more perhaps?
  • LB - Added one already. Seems like we're OK for now.
  • CB - Need one if Muhammad leaves.
  • S - Probably OK with Taaffe back unless multiple young guys bail.

To me, it feels like we still have quite a bit of shopping to do if we fancy ourselves a contender next year.

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2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

So taking a step back and looking at our big picture needs...

Offense:

  • QB - All set
  • RB - Opinions vary. Depends a lot on how Baxter bounces back and whether Gibson can get back in the trust tree. I lean toward saying we need 1.
  • TE - Is Niblack coming back? He didn't do much this year but at least he's a body. Could use 1 but hard to see devoting a lot of resources here.
  • WR - Chatter picking up steam that we like what we have. Maybe the price tag for true difference makers is too beaucoup? Need 1-2.
  • OL - Tackle looks set if Goosby and Baker stick around. Seems like they'd add experience on the interior if they could.

Defense:

  • DE - Looks good with Moore coming back and Simmons staying.
  • DT - Added two guys that should contribute. One more perhaps?
  • LB - Added one already. Seems like we're OK for now.
  • CB - Need one if Muhammad leaves.
  • S - Probably OK with Taaffe back unless multiple young guys bail.

To me, it feels like we still have quite a bit of shopping to do if we fancy ourselves a contender next year.

WR # 1 and CB #1 and a mid tier DT and we probably are as good or better than anybody in CFB if we stay reasonably healthy.  
 

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1 minute ago, tokamak said:

So taking a step back and looking at our big picture needs...

Offense:

  • QB - All set
  • RB - Probably need one, considering where the room ended up. Priority on leadership and experience.
  • TE - 995ers have been hyping up our TE takes, plus we still have Washington from last years class. I don't think he make a move here.
  • WR - Maybe one difference maker, since we're losing 2. Moore and Wingo are bright spots
  • OL - I think interior only. If Neto was ready I feel like he would have pushed someone out already.

Defense:

  • DE - Moore hasn't announced his return, he could still bolt. If he doesn't though the room is good.
  • DT - Pre Playoffs, we were looking for 4 total I think? Would need 2 more if thats the case.
  • LB - Added one already. Seems like we're OK for now.
  • CB - Need one if Muhammad leaves.
  • S - Probably OK with Taaffe back unless multiple young guys bail.

To me, it feels like we still have quite a bit of shopping to do if we fancy ourselves a contender next year.

Responses in bold.

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That was inevitable I think and I’ve been arguing it as the endpoint since the beginning of NiL. The rookie of the year is almost never in contention for MVP, so why would teams pay anyone with a 50% bust chance when they could get someone that’s already proven not to be a bust?  It’s never going to be 100/0 bc you need baseline stability,  it if given the chance to pay a high school blue chip 1M to get his freshman year (and the. Have to renegotiate)or go pay an all sec or all big 10 guy 1M to get his contract year it’s not even close to a decision to me. 
Freahman recruiting is still valuable (for now) to have the home field advantage in retention when it comes time to figure out market value later on in time, and because human beings are generally lazy and prefer inertia to change, but the more common transfers of successful players out from blue bloods become the less valuable either of those two advantages are. 

I feel like multi-year contracts with liquidated damages should be the solution.  Just for illustrative purposes, 5 star locks in a 3 year deal.  $500K year 1, $1MM year 2, $1.5MM year 3.  Either side can terminate without cause at any time for $350K (so collective also gets 'bust' protection).  So if Oregon wants to overpay an all american year 3 that is locked in, they will need to buy out the contract for $350K.     Again, just throwing numbers around for sake of an example, but in a world without salary caps or luxury taxes, something like that makes the most sense to me.  Essentially no different than coaches and their salaries.

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Kudos to all the folks who keep writing these checks not just for incoming recruits but to simply keep the existing team intact. 

As it stands, it feels like baptism by fire for guys like Lockett and Ffrench at WR, Mack and Black at CB, and Terry and Charles at DT. This is going to be Sark's youngest team in awhile.

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1 minute ago, 6th Street said:

Kudos to all the folks who keep writing these checks not just for incoming recruits but to simply keep the existing team intact. 

As it stands, it feels like baptism by fire for guys like Lockett and Ffrench at WR, Mack and Black at CB, and Terry and Charles at DT. This is going to be Sark's youngest team in awhile.

It's a good thing the schedule seems rather backloaded (outside of the OSU game to begin the season and UF at five).

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3 minutes ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

Didn’t Burton say this was the most prepared for the portal the program has ever been? We’re still going to win the sec next year, but what an insane comment

I mean, there's thinking you're prepared based on what you saw last year, and then there's tOSU, Michigan, and Oregon blowing your numbers out of the water.

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Posting Ketch tweets is low, even for you

Nothing surprising has even happened at WR. We lost Cook midseason and Golden and Bond were assumed to be one year rentals. We haven’t gone WR shopping yet and we have two five star dudes coming in. I’d say only maybe a handful of schools, if that, wouldn’t trade spots with us there.
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The thing about recruiting is that there's a lot more history supporting how programs perceive value. A 5 star can command $1M because of what they can do if they're playing the right position. Dakorian Moore picked up $1.3M from Oregon. That's the most I've heard of outside of QB, but that's also Oregon. Generally, though, by position a 5 star will go from $100k to $1M. Falloff is gradual but accelerates downward to $0 for many recruits. There are so many risks in terms of the HS recruit profile. Can they handle pussy in college? Learning and not playing much early? Getting hit or hitting others of the same talent level and size? Can they sort a playbook? Handle 100,000 people and that noise in a stadium? Classwork? Etc. 
So many of those perceived risks are canceled by college production. Yet, there's almost no history of paying for CFB production. What is a multiyear starting CB for a repeating CFP team worth to someone? Apparently $2M, allegedly. How about a proven Edge like the guy at SCar? $1.5M per year. Betting Simmons is now going to be in that range, probably a little higher. 
The list goes on, but that shit is going to continue to change and develop in each cycle. There's no proven equilibrium yet. If someone's team is one All American WR from a title, how much is that guy worth? Probably a lot more than $1.3M.

Is it 1.3 per year or total and with NIL is it payments or lump sum?

For Moore
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21 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

All we need is one player from one SEC team to sue.  I seriously doubt that restriction would hold up.  Would prefer it not be a player that is transferring to Texas.  We get enough shit for other dumbasses about ruining conferences.

Though if we are going to be called the villain no matter what, might as well actually be the villain.

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I've played  the role of Darth Vader/JR Ewing in some folks' mind over the year in various circumstances. The peace I've always made with it comes in two parts: 1) rationalizing how I am in the right and they're the clowns and then 2) fuck'em if they can't take a joke. It's worked out well and I see that as the right approach for us as a fanbase with how the collegiate landscape views and discusses Texas. Just fucking run amok and do what we want because we're going to hear all of the whining anyway. 

16 minutes ago, tokamak said:

So taking a step back and looking at our big picture needs...

Offense:

  • QB - All set
  • RB - Opinions vary. Depends a lot on how Baxter bounces back and whether Gibson can get back in the trust tree. I lean toward saying we need 1.
  • TE - Is Niblack coming back? He didn't do much this year but at least he's a body. Could use 1 but hard to see devoting a lot of resources here.
  • WR - Chatter picking up steam that we like what we have. Maybe the price tag for true difference makers is too beaucoup? Need 1-2.
  • OL - Tackle looks set if Goosby and Baker stick around. Seems like they'd add experience on the interior if they could.

Defense:

  • DE - Looks good with Moore coming back and Simmons staying.
  • DT - Added two guys that should contribute. One more perhaps?
  • LB - Added one already. Seems like we're OK for now.
  • CB - Need one if Muhammad leaves.
  • S - Probably OK with Taaffe back unless multiple young guys bail.

To me, it feels like we still have quite a bit of shopping to do if we fancy ourselves a contender next year.

Regarding Niblack, they're fighting to keep him, for whatever that is worth. 

4 minutes ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

Didn’t Burton say this was the most prepared for the portal the program has ever been? We’re still going to win the sec next year, but what an insane comment

What has occurred that has spurred you to believe he was way off base? One guy leaving for outsized pay versus performance? Who has left that you wanted to keep besides Muhammad? Do you think Texas is finished adding players, also?

**************

One thing yet to be discussed, btw, is what happens with the allocation tied to MM. I'm guessing that gets put to good use. 

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26 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

All we need is one player from one SEC team to sue.  I seriously doubt that restriction would hold up.  Would prefer it not be a player that is transferring to Texas.  We get enough shit for other dumbasses about ruining conferences.

Though if we are going to be called the villain no matter what, might as well actually be the villain.

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Right? If the NCAA can't determine juco counts as a year, then how can any conference limit transfers, e.g. prevent players from earning max compensation from other conference opponents?

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2 minutes ago, utexas8 said:


Is it 1.3 per year or total and with NIL is it payments or lump sum?

For Moore

Unless a program and collective is run by a band of imbeciles, the money is distributed over the course of a 9 or 12 month period. One season rentals can gets as low as 4 months. Nothing is beyond a year, usually. 

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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I've played  the role of Darth Vader/JR Ewing in some folks' mind over the year in various circumstances. The peace I've always made with it comes in two parts: 1) rationalizing how I am in the right and they're the clowns and then 2) fuck'em if they can't take a joke. It's worked out well and I see that as the right approach for us as a fanbase with how the collegiate landscape views and discusses Texas. Just fucking run amok and do what we want because we're going to hear all of the whining anyway. 

Regarding Niblack, they're fighting to keep him, for whatever that is worth. 

What has occurred that has spurred you to believe he was way off base? One guy leaving for outsized pay versus performance? Who has left that you wanted to keep besides Muhammad? Do you think Texas is finished adding players, also?

**************

One thing yet to be discussed, btw, is what happens with the allocation tied to MM. I'm guessing that gets put to good use. 

The last part is interesting for sure. I’d rather go shopping this spring with 2M than pay 2M to retain Manny for sure. Maybe we only go shopping with 1M because that was the number we had penciled in, but I trust (more or less) our staff to get it right. 

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The last part is interesting for sure. I’d rather go shopping this spring with 2M than pay 2M to retain Manny for sure. Maybe we only go shopping with 1M because that was the number we had penciled in, but I trust (more or less) our staff to get it right. 

How many good players came available last spring? I’m not sure. I know we got mukuba, golden, and bond int the first window. I think the white d tackle we got in the spring.

Do players like that go in the spring too? Or is that caliber already gone?
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2 minutes ago, utexas8 said:


How many good players came available last spring? I’m not sure. I know we got mukuba, golden, and bond int the first window. I think the white d tackle we got in the spring.

Do players like that go in the spring too? Or is that caliber already gone?

I don’t think you can use history like that as a baseline, you aren’t looking for organic leave on their own guys after spring ball because they don’t like their future prospects- those are depth guys. You are talking about going out and forcing people into the portal with significant money offerings I’m sure. 
college scouting during the spring is at least as important as high school scouting in that respect. It’s also easier because more is known about those guys. That certainty should also raise the price those guys can get to get them to leave. 

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7 minutes ago, utexas8 said:


How many good players came available last spring? I’m not sure. I know we got mukuba, golden, and bond int the first window. I think the white d tackle we got in the spring.

Do players like that go in the spring too? Or is that caliber already gone?

Bill Norton and Lole were in the spring I believe. Solid role players but not tier 1 guys obviously. Typically those discussions with the tier 1 guys happen well in advance I think. 

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13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I've played  the role of Darth Vader/JR Ewing in some folks' mind over the year in various circumstances. The peace I've always made with it comes in two parts: 1) rationalizing how I am in the right and they're the clowns and then 2) fuck'em if they can't take a joke. It's worked out well and I see that as the right approach for us as a fanbase with how the collegiate landscape views and discusses Texas. Just fucking run amok and do what we want because we're going to hear all of the whining anyway. 

Regarding Niblack, they're fighting to keep him, for whatever that is worth. 

What has occurred that has spurred you to believe he was way off base? One guy leaving for outsized pay versus performance? Who has left that you wanted to keep besides Muhammad? Do you think Texas is finished adding players, also?

**************

One thing yet to be discussed, btw, is what happens with the allocation tied to MM. I'm guessing that gets put to good use. 

Last year our winter portal haul included Mukuba, Golden, Bond, and Trey Moore. Elite adds at every position of need. This year we whiffed or balked at price tags for major WR, TE, and CB. Even ignoring MM, anyone who posted now that the portal preparedness was better than ever would get laughed off the board. 

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39 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's Robert Killebrew for me. He immediately comes to mind as someone who frequently infuriated me with his asinine penalties and terrible mechanics. 

I think Kill just got another late hit penalty last week. 🤬

He constantly pissed me off.

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2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Sounds like we have a better shot in 2026 than 2025 given the big step down in talent next year. 

Step down where?  Oline but they are more unproven then step down in talent I’d say.  Didn’t people say that last year about this years defense?  

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1 minute ago, 6th Street said:

Sounds like we have a better shot in 2026 than 2025 given the big step down in talent next year. 

This is kinda what I've been thinking. Reload in 2025 with some young, promising guys. Maybe get 9 wins and flirt with a playoff spot. In 2026, those young promising guys take the next step for a run (and a presumably tougher schedule).  

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Just now, Hook1997 said:

Step down where?  Oline but they are more unproven then step down in talent I’d say.  Didn’t people say that last year about this years defense?  

DT: our top 4 guys are out

OL: replacing 4 of 5 starters

WR: lose our #1 target in Golden and Bond

TE: Helm replaced by ? Niblack? 

DB: lose Mukuba, Barron, and maybe Manny

that is a full rebuild right there

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3 minutes ago, Delta Charlie said:

This is kinda what I've been thinking. Reload in 2025 with some young, promising guys. Maybe get 9 wins and flirt with a playoff spot. In 2026, those young promising guys take the next step for a run (and a presumably tougher schedule).  

The sec blows right now and we get most of the bottom half of it. We could add nothing more and our floor would still be Atlanta 

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23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The last part is interesting for sure. I’d rather go shopping this spring with 2M than pay 2M to retain Manny for sure. Maybe we only go shopping with 1M because that was the number we had penciled in, but I trust (more or less) our staff to get it right. 

If Moore hangs around here with Simmons and all the other pass rushers, what corner wouldn't want to play here? Makes life much easier when you don't have to cover for very long. The value is what we have at edge that made a difference in the secondary as much as anything.

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2 minutes ago, texifornia said:

 

Jesus Christ, this is as reactionary as it comes. This will be a very talented team that should absolutely make the Playoff.

Not reactionary at all. Just trying to be realistic.  Ole Miss was a very talented team and still missed the playoff. Could happen to us.  However, I do have faith in Sark that he can do better than the 9 wins I mentioned. 

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7 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

DT: our top 4 guys are out

OL: replacing 4 of 5 starters

WR: lose our #1 target in Golden and Bond

TE: Helm replaced by ? Niblack? 

DB: lose Mukuba, Barron, and maybe Manny

that is a full rebuild right there

You must be a blast at parties.

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8 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

DT: our top 4 guys are out

OL: replacing 4 of 5 starters

WR: lose our #1 target in Golden and Bond

TE: Helm replaced by ? Niblack? 

DB: lose Mukuba, Barron, and maybe Manny

that is a full rebuild right there


Jesus Christ you are fucking retarded. 

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4 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

DT: our top 4 guys are out (same as last year pretty much)

OL: replacing 4 of 5 starters

WR: lose our #1 target in Golden and Bond (same as last year)

TE: Helm replaced by ? Niblack? (Didn’t have a standout before Helm emerged this year)

DB: lose Mukuba, Barron, and maybe Manny (a transfer and a guy who took a huge step up this year)

that is a full rebuild right there

One thing Sark has done great is develop and hold onto depth for the most part.  It’s college football, I wouldn’t really call it a full rebuild, it’s the same thing we did this year minus Oline which the coaches don’t seem over worried about with the replacements. 

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1 hour ago, brojangles2 said:

Not sure I have disliked a Texas player more than him in history. Maybe Kris Boyd. 

This is a pretty fucking stupid take. Buck Burnette tweeted out racist shit. Robert Killebrew was good for 1-2 egregious personal fouls a game. But a guy who in his first year starting had some issues with penalities, and still is in line to be a super high draft pick, and has done or said nothing but represent the Horns respectful, he's the guy you hate? Becuase he had a bad game, playing while inujured, and honestly maybe the coach shouldn't have run him out in the first palce? Your take can get all the way fucked. 

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

I mean, he came about as close to single-handedly ending our season as it's possible for an OL to do. Overall good player for us, but I could see how someone might still be a bit salty about that less than 4 days after it happened.

I can see how someone can be a little bitch and throw out a bad take becuase they're a child, sure. 

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