2024 1st Round Picks & Recruiting Rankings

[closetojumping 63086]

While not hashed out on this site very often, the notion that recruiting rankings don't matter is still a popular position permeating CFB discussions across the Internet and in sports bars all across the country. I am curious what the 2024 draft class might tell us regarding that and other takeaways when thinking about how the services handle their bullshit. 

We've only seen Round 1, but I figured some thoughts from that round alone could be interesting. I put together some simple numbers that are spoilered below as a resource. 

Spoiler

Here are a few takeaways:

1) If you want to be a high draft pick, it is an imperative to play for what will now be P4 programs or Notre Dame. Verse may or may not have been discovered when at Albany. Besides him, you have Mitchell. 30 picks started at P5 and 31 finished at P5. 

2) ESPN and Rivals were consistently rating these players lower, sometimes much lower, than 247 and, when they were ranking guys, On3 (they started ranking in 2021). This isn't surprising to us, I think, but it's crazy how much credence both services are still given when they're as lazy it gets.

3) 15.6% of the 32 picks are former 5 stars. 5 stars represent less .5% of the recruiting classes each cycle. Yet again, the notion that a 5 star ranking should carry some credence is fully validated by this first round.

4) Half of the picks were 4 stars while 4 stars represent roughly 15-20% of each ranked recruiting group. Again, the "coach up them 3 stars that want to be a X University ballplayer!" is folly as a general rule. If you find yourself saying this as a fan, you'd better damned sure hope you have a coach like Jonathan Smith or Kalen Daboer developing your team, otherwise you're probably fucked.

5) One place in which the rankings are suspect is on the OL. We knew this, but it is still stark. 5 of the drafted OLs in the first round were 3 stars. 2 4 stars and 2 5 stars. The 2 4 stars were ranked in the 300s and barely reached the 4 star ranking. One of those 4 stars is Joe Alt, who ESPN and Rivals basically thought was worthless. Of the 5 stars, Latham is the highest consensus ranked player of the 32 draft picks. He was viewed as about as can't miss as there ever are. Strong recruiting work by Kyle Flood on that one. The other guy, Mims, was similar and consensus ranked #10 in the same class. In effect, even can't miss guys ... miss (Tommy Brockermeyer was consensus #6 in the same cycle as these two, also solid recruiting work by Flood in terms of signing him), but you'd like to land those and otherwise have an OL coach who knows what in the hell they are doing with raw materials when they sign them. 

6) 9 transfers out of 32 picks (28%), 4 QBs, 3 DEs, 1 WR and 1 OT. Not sure if there's anything to make of that, I guess.

It's a small sample size and all that, so make of it what you will. I'm curious if others have any thoughts when looking at this, however. 

 

[Professor Chesney 558]

This is a very interesting topic, appreciate the spreadsheet work.

Noticing how none of the 1st round WRs were 5 stars, I wonder how “valuable” a 5 star at one position will likely be versus another position.  For example, is a 5-star WR more likely to be a first round pick than a 5-star DL?  I am too busy (lazy) at the moment to do a deep dive, but a cursory look back at the 5 star WR rankings is kind of shocking.  
 

In 2021, for example, the industry ranked WRs in the top-40 were: Emeka Egbuka (OSU), JaCorey Brooks (Bama), Mario Williams (lol), and Agiye Hall (lolol).

In 2020: Julian Fleming (OSU), Demond Demas (lol), J Smith-Njigba (OSU), Kayshon Boutte (LSU), Rakim Jarrett (Maryland) and Jordan Johnson (ND).

Draft status isn’t the be-all-end-all of player productivity, but only JSN was a first round pick and arguably a ++ player.

[Gut Wagon 8105]

8 minutes ago, Professor Chesney said:

This is a very interesting topic, appreciate the spreadsheet work.

Noticing how none of the 1st round WRs were 5 stars, I wonder how “valuable” a 5 star at one position will likely be versus another position.  For example, is a 5-star WR more likely to be a first round pick than a 5-star DL?  I am too busy (lazy) at the moment to do a deep dive, but a cursory look back at the 5 star WR rankings is kind of shocking.  
 

In 2021, for example, the industry ranked WRs in the top-40 were: Emeka Egbuka (OSU), JaCorey Brooks (Bama), Mario Williams (lol), and Agiye Hall (lolol).

In 2020: Julian Fleming (OSU), Demond Demas (lol), J Smith-Njigba (OSU), Kayshon Boutte (LSU), Rakim Jarrett (Maryland) and Jordan Johnson (ND).

Draft status isn’t the be-all-end-all of player productivity, but only JSN was a first round pick and arguably a ++ player.

The higher the maintenance, the greater the risk of never taking a checkered flag. Not sure about all these guys, but at a minimum we know Hall, Demas and Boutte flashed a lot of "check engine" warnings. 

[closetojumping 63086]

4 minutes ago, Professor Chesney said:

This is a very interesting topic, appreciate the spreadsheet work.

Noticing how none of the 1st round WRs were 5 stars, I wonder how “valuable” a 5 star at one position will likely be versus another position.  For example, is a 5-star WR more likely to be a first round pick than a 5-star DL?  I am too busy (lazy) at the moment to do a deep dive, but a cursory look back at the 5 star WR rankings is kind of shocking.  
 

In 2021, for example, the industry ranked WRs in the top-40 were: Emeka Egbuka (OSU), JaCorey Brooks (Bama), Mario Williams (lol), and Agiye Hall (lolol).

In 2020: Julian Fleming (OSU), Demond Demas (lol), J Smith-Njigba (OSU), Kayshon Boutte (LSU), Rakim Jarrett (Maryland) and Jordan Johnson (ND).

Draft status isn’t the be-all-end-all of player productivity, but only JSN was a first round pick and arguably a ++ player.

I kind of fatigued towards the end of my write-up and spreadsheet work or I would have dug deeper into the WR element. It's something I've lamented on this board, particularly in terms of how WR rankings can drive up the entire rankings of a team's class. Ohio State does it every recruiting cycle under Day. 

WR is a flash position and I suspect recruiting rankers are drawn to them like moths to a flame, similar to QB. Who tests well at the camps and also looks amazing on tape will get ranked well, but the diva factor is a big issue there and it gets little review when the rankings are formed.

Harrison Jr was ranked behind guys with more elite physical traits while being the best route runner in his class and also being a known workhorse when it comes to practice and work ethic. I find it almost comical to imagine the level of utter stupidity it would take a ranker to have conversations with both Hall and Harrison, and the people around them and their coaches, and then walk away and say "yeah, Hall has the most upside". It takes effort to pull off that blunder. Or, it takes a lack of effort and they never spoke to or considered any of the two players' backgrounds and mental makeup when putting the rankings together. 

If you look at other classes, 5 star WRs don't fare much better. For every JSN or Garrett Wilson, you get numerous Bru McCoy/Chris Marshall/Jadon Hazelwood/Theo Wease types. 

[crash_davis 23154]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

6) 9 transfers out of 32 picks (28%), 4 QBs, 3 DEs, 1 WR and 1 OT. Not sure if there's anything to make of that, I guess.

Thank you for putting this together.

I'm interested in transfers. I wonder how many of these transfers transferred from a school where they were expected to start or transferred because they were forced out/told to find greener pastures. I guess what I'm getting at is how many of the transfers were considered "busts" by their previous school but found their form at their transfer school.

There are a shitton of transfers every year. How many of those forced transfers make it to the NFL?

[closetojumping 63086]

8 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Thank you for putting this together.

I'm interested in transfers. I wonder how many of these transfers transferred from a school where they were expected to start or transferred because they were forced out/told to find greener pastures. I guess what I'm getting at is how many of the transfers were considered "busts" by their previous school but found their form at their transfer school.

There are a shitton of transfers every year. How many of those forced transfers make it to the NFL?

Good thoughts and question. That's part of why I was parsing it out. Transfers are skyrocketing and will impact future drafts, for sure.

Regarding this group, here is what I know:

-Daniels, Penix and Williams are QBs that had all kinds of options. Two followed a coach they'd played for beforehand.

-Nix was viewed as a bust at Auburn. He played a lot and could never put it together.

-Verse exploded in development at his first stop and could have gone anywhere once he entered the portal. FSU was on him before that after seeing him on film against a common opponent (I think Syracuse but not sure).

-Latu was medically retired at UW. Do we consider Degabriel Floyd a bust for the same reason? I think opinion varies on that.

-Pearsall upgraded.

-Guyton and Chop Robinson - I am not sure about the backstories for either.

[Atticus 4015]

1 hour ago, Professor Chesney said:

This is a very interesting topic, appreciate the spreadsheet work.

Noticing how none of the 1st round WRs were 5 stars, I wonder how “valuable” a 5 star at one position will likely be versus another position.  For example, is a 5-star WR more likely to be a first round pick than a 5-star DL?  I am too busy (lazy) at the moment to do a deep dive, but a cursory look back at the 5 star WR rankings is kind of shocking.  
 

In 2021, for example, the industry ranked WRs in the top-40 were: Emeka Egbuka (OSU), JaCorey Brooks (Bama), Mario Williams (lol), and Agiye Hall (lolol).

In 2020: Julian Fleming (OSU), Demond Demas (lol), J Smith-Njigba (OSU), Kayshon Boutte (LSU), Rakim Jarrett (Maryland) and Jordan Johnson (ND).

Draft status isn’t the be-all-end-all of player productivity, but only JSN was a first round pick and arguably a ++ player.

Worthy was an On3 5 star, it just isn’t listed on the spreadsheet. 

[Nigel Tufnel 200]

Nothing CTJ said do I disagree with.  Having just completed this whole process, I could go on for days about this stuff.  A couple of things that became obvious to me.  First, coaches are looking for players who are physically ready RIGHT NOW.  These are the kids who when you see them, they look like they are physically 30 years old.  Sure, they have to project positions like OL and DL more than others, but they want mature bodies now (this may be even more so in baseball).  

Second, you are at the whim of the evaluating person in "the system" and all their good and bad traits/qualities.  A lot of preconceived notions of the evaluators simply will not be overcome.  This can be infuriating because, like it or not, it is part of the system, and it affects the player.   

Yes, stars matter, absolutely.  But it is still a crap shoot because they can't dig deeply into backgrounds.  Percentages say that 4* and 5* are more likely to pay off and they do.  Coaches who are good evaluators will have a mix of 2-5*, even though fans complain that they are taking "bread."   Smaller schools will be between unrated and 3*.

Fans complain all the time about the services, recruiting evaluators, etc., but at the same time believe the bigger "system."  It's a pretty interesting dynamic.

[The Dog 44180]