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2025 NFL Draft


Wulaw Horn

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I really like Nate Tice's work, but I've learned to not listen to his QB draft takes after he was high on guys like Riley Leonard, Van Dyke, and Byrum Brown. That said, he said on his pod his QB1 is now Garrett Nussmeier, so add another QB to the round one conversation for now 

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18 minutes ago, Fud said:

I really like Nate Tice's work, but I've learned to not listen to his QB draft takes after he was high on guys like Riley Leonard, Van Dyke, and Byrum Brown. That said, he said on his pod his QB1 is now Garrett Nussmeier, so add another QB to the round one conversation for now 

He was also high on Desmond Ridder all the way up to halfway through the season last year. It’s weird. He played QB in college, yet that’s by far his worst evaluation area. He’s pretty solid at evaluating most other positions. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Nussmeier goes in the first. 

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Nussmier has bust written all over him. He can robotically throw a 10 yard out. That’s well and truly awesome. He’s the exact kind of colorless, uncreative clay that various idiots in the NFL crave working with as they maneuver themselves into their next firing. 

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Brugler with an info dump on Mays' pod

- Underwhelming offensive class in the first round. Good RB and TE, weak elsewhere. Strong defensive class. Not a top heavy class, in part because of the QB position. Good depth in the 2nd/3rd round
- The top guys like Travis Hunter, Will Johnson, Masan Graham, Burden, McMillan, aren't at the very top in a typical class. Big drop off after Burden/McMillan to WR3. He doesn't have a clear WR3 yet
- Once again, off ball backer is weak. OT thin; a lot of NFL scouts like his top two at guard better than tackle (Campbell and Banks) because they're hunting for "traits" at the position that they can then develop. Mentions that it wouldn't surprise him if Cam Williams will go over Banks because of his traits making him a more clear tackle prospect for a team. Mentions "the Minnesota guy" as another tackle to guard. Can land a stud interior guy.
- Loves the corners in this draft. Talks about how Hunter doesn't need to think out there at corner because his instincts and football IQ are so high. Teams might want him at corner because elite corners are tougher to find, but he might want to play WR since they get paid more. Wouldn't surprise him if he were the first non-QB taken. As a WR only he's a top ten prospect in this class because of his athleticism. "Why are teams throwing at him?". East Carolina guy tore his ACL and went from a top 20 lock to probably 2nd rounder
- Raves about Ashton Jeanty. In his August big board had him at #25 overall, and he's only rising up his board. Reminds him of LaDainian Tomlinson. Breaks tackles. Natural pass catcher. Long speed. Low center of gravity makes it tough to tackle him. It'll be hard to keep him out of his final top ten
- Sounds disgusted about this QB class. There's much more pure talent than the Pickett class, but can you commit to any of these guys in the top ten of a draft?
- Calls Beck "a poor man's Matt Ryan", relies on 50/50 balls too much. What's his distinguishing trait? Kind of average across the board. He's getting exposed without Bowers and McConkey cheat codes. Not a lock to go in the first. Might be QB1 for some teams, but some will have him in the 3rd/4th
- Quinn misses too much time, not a big frame, some things about his game bothers some teams. He'll have a chance to impress teams as the season goes on in big games
- Cam Ward could be this draft's riser. Too many turnover worthy plays. He's a 5th year senior but played in a running offense in high school and then a raid offense at a small school, and so he still needs a lot of reps to improve, and in the NFL teams don't have a lot of patience if you're turning the ball over. If he cuts down on the turnover worthy throws as the season goes on he could go high. Mentions that he's throwing to three WRs who'll get drafted
- Shedeur is accurate. Not very big. Arm is closer to average than good. He'll need to do well in the interview process because teams have some concerns; how will he do in a locker room full of grown men? Will Deion steer him away from teams?
- Milroe is now in the QB1 conversation. "Rocket fueled Jalen Hurts"; has better speed and a bigger arm. Best athlete on the field in a game full of NFL players. Good passer down the field, needs to get better in the intermediate. Also similar to Hurts, has good football character and is known as a tireless worker. Getting more comfortable reading defenses. Is a work in progress in some areas. Will he always be a work in progress in those areas? Stares down WRs at times. Needs to get better at some passing small details. Mays points out that Hurts still struggles in the intermediate

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Someone to watch for who might eventually be viewed as one of the top defensive prospects in the draft is Kentucky DL Deone Walker. He's 6'6, 340, athletic, and lines up all over the place and causes hell. Watch the Georgia game.

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"Cameron Williams, RT, Texas
For those who watched Texas’ win at Michigan, you might know Williams as the right tackle who kept getting penalized (four flags in that game). The Michigan game was Williams’ third career start, and his first on the road, so youthful mistakes were expected. But the main takeaways from his overall film are his smooth movement skills and powerful grip strength, especially for a player with his size (6-foot-5, 335 pounds) and length.

Williams was (hilariously) flagged for holding on this play, which negated a Quinn Ewers’ touchdown pass. Clearly, it was a clean rep for the right tackle and illustrated his ability to control the edge.

Though still raw, Williams is smooth and strong in his kick slide to protect the edge (only two pressures allowed this season), and his range is impressive when Texas asks him to get out in space. Most have Texas left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. penciled-in as a first-rounder, but some scouts believe Williams’ raw traits ultimately could make him the higher draft pick."

 

 

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1 hour ago, Fud said:

Someone to watch for who might eventually be viewed as one of the top defensive prospects in the draft is Kentucky DL Deone Walker. He's 6'6, 340, athletic, and lines up all over the place and causes hell. Watch the Georgia game.

I don’t follow the draft every year as early as some of you guys do. I obviously do follow CFB a ton though. I just assumed Walker was viewed already as a 1st or 2nd round guy. Is he new to the scouting world? He came into this season with All-SEC expectations. 

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Just now, closetojumping said:

I don’t follow the draft every year as early as some of you guys do. I obviously do follow CFB a ton though. I just assumed Walker was viewed already as a 1st or 2nd round guy. Is he new to the scouting world? He came into this season with All-SEC expectations. 

I think he's potentially ascending into the top five of the draft depending on where the QBs end up, rather than just being thought of as a first rounder 

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54 minutes ago, Fud said:

"Cameron Williams, RT, Texas
For those who watched Texas’ win at Michigan, you might know Williams as the right tackle who kept getting penalized (four flags in that game). The Michigan game was Williams’ third career start, and his first on the road, so youthful mistakes were expected. But the main takeaways from his overall film are his smooth movement skills and powerful grip strength, especially for a player with his size (6-foot-5, 335 pounds) and length.

Williams was (hilariously) flagged for holding on this play, which negated a Quinn Ewers’ touchdown pass. Clearly, it was a clean rep for the right tackle and illustrated his ability to control the edge.

Though still raw, Williams is smooth and strong in his kick slide to protect the edge (only two pressures allowed this season), and his range is impressive when Texas asks him to get out in space. Most have Texas left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. penciled-in as a first-rounder, but some scouts believe Williams’ raw traits ultimately could make him the higher draft pick."

 

 

Not a surprise to me. Was almost set in stone imo after Michigan. 
I think you have to pretty much chalk up DJ to the draft as well. I am doubtful that he will want to be the only dude coming back on an entire new offensive line. Move him from written in pencil in maybe they could go to, yeah- we suspect they will go. 
Blue, on the other hand, yikes I had him likely to be top 3 or 4 rounds, he might not be at Texas next year but it won’t be because he’s getting drafted. Doing this list now 35% of the way through the season:

Sure things (8): Quinn, Banks, Bond, Helm, Collins, Sorrell, Barron, Makuba

highly likely (4): Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden,  DJ, 

coin flip or less (2): Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden 

14 right now. Absolute floor of 11 (barring catastrophic injury to one of the sure things). 
my prediction- 14.  Wild eyed crazy scenario where we win the national title and all those guys self actualize and none of them want to come back- 20. 

I’m a homer and a honk. Things don’t always work out the way they do on paper- but the over under to get half the action on one side and half on the other has to be right around 12, right?  

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Absolute floor of 11 (barring catastrophic injury to one of the sure things).  

But injuries are always a possibility, so it isn’t “absolute,” right? Not to mention all the other things that could go wrong that need to be baked into projections. The (very unlikely) absolute floor is 0.

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50 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not a surprise to me. Was almost set in stone imo after Michigan. 
I think you have to pretty much chalk up DJ to the draft as well. I am doubtful that he will want to be the only dude coming back on an entire new offensive line. Move him from written in pencil in maybe they could go to, yeah- we suspect they will go. 
Blue, on the other hand, yikes I had him likely to be top 3 or 4 rounds, he might not be at Texas next year but it won’t be because he’s getting drafted. Doing this list now 35% of the way through the season:

Sure things (8): Quinn, Banks, Bond, Helm, Collins, Sorrell, Barron, Makuba

highly likely (4): Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden,  DJ, 

coin flip or less (2): Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden 

14 right now. Absolute floor of 11 (barring catastrophic injury to one of the sure things). 
my prediction- 14.  Wild eyed crazy scenario where we win the national title and all those guys self actualize and none of them want to come back- 20. 

I’m a homer and a honk. Things don’t always work out the way they do on paper- but the over under to get half the action on one side and half on the other has to be right around 12, right?  

You just referenced the notion that 20 longhorns could get drafted in the upcoming draft in the prior paragraph. I think we can all gather that you’re a “homer and a honk“ without you spelling it out. 

Blue declared before this season that this is a “contract year”, so, yeah he won’t be back. Maybe he does his thing and once again redeems himself through the rest of the season. He’s outdone himself before, of course. As of right now, he’s a JAG and will not get drafted. There are at least 30 guys I’ve seen listed ahead of him on the draft eligible TB lists. This is a deep class for TBs. 

Guys you need to stop listing if you’d like for the rest of us to stop pointing and laughing:

1) Hayden Conner. GTFO. 

2) Holmes. He does not possess an elite skill and is undersized. 

As to Campbell, that guy is steadily losing playing time already. And he’s a guard. And he’s got mixed film. If he leaves, might he get drafted late? I guess there’s a shot. Will it have been a poor decision? Yes. There’s good money available if he wanted to return and Flood wanted him back. 

I guess I’m still deeply skeptical when it comes to Majors, Broughton, Gbenda, Campbell, Blue, Holmes, Mukuba, and Bolden. Hell, Golden isn’t a sure thing either. Conner hasn’t made a block in the running game in his fucking life. He has more whiffs on film than Rob Deer. 

I see 9 as the likely number and 12 the ceiling. 

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

You just referenced the notion that 20 longhorns could get drafted in the upcoming draft in the prior paragraph. I think we can all gather that you’re a “homer and a honk“ without you spelling it out. 

Blue declared before this season that this is a “contract year”, so, yeah he won’t be back. Maybe he does his thing and once again redeems himself through the rest of the season. He’s outdone himself before, of course. As of right now, he’s a JAG and will not get drafted. There are at least 30 guys I’ve seen listed ahead of him on the draft eligible TB lists. This is a deep class for TBs. 

Guys you need to stop listing if you’d like for the rest of us to stop pointing and laughing:

1) Hayden Conner. GTFO. 

2) Holmes. He does not possess an elite skill and is undersized. 

As to Campbell, that guy is steadily losing playing time already. And he’s a guard. And he’s got mixed film. If he leaves, might he get drafted late? I guess there’s a shot. Will it have been a poor decision? Yes. There’s good money available if he wanted to return and Flood wanted him back. 

I guess I’m still deeply skeptical when it comes to Majors, Broughton, Gbenda, Campbell, Blue, Holmes, Mukuba, and Bolden. Hell, Golden isn’t a sure thing either. Conner hasn’t made a block in the running game in his fucking life. He has more whiffs on film than Rob Deer. 

I see 9 as the likely number and 12 the ceiling. 

I'll take that bet if you want to do it. I have 11 as floor and 14 as most likely.  I win if the number is above your ceiling (12). You win if the number is below my floor (11).  Deal?


Also on the 20 I said wild eyed crazy scenario where we win a national title and everyone self actualizes is 20. In no way was that a prediction. THe guys you are giving me shit on are all at the bottom of my list called l"coin flip or less" and the guys you pulled out in Holmes and Conner would definitely be "less" but greater than zero imo.  I only predicted 2 from that tier. If I had to guess it would be Gbenda and Guilbeau.  Would it shock me if Watson had a stretch where he got 8 sacks in 6 games and decided to go? No.  Or Blue get his head out of his ass?  Not a surprise either.  I have that as 2/7 so what that's saying is 28% odds a guy in that tier gets drafted.  You want to say collectively that won't happen with that group of 7 fine.  

But when you say 9 when there are 8 pretty much locks that means that of the following players you only have 1 getting drafted: 

Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden,  DJ, Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden.  That seems incredibly implausible that that group would go 1 for 12 

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15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'll take that bet if you want to do it. I have 11 as floor and 14 as most likely.  I win if the number is above your ceiling (12). You win if the number is below my floor (11).  Deal?


Also on the 20 I said wild eyed crazy scenario where we win a national title and everyone self actualizes is 20. In no way was that a prediction. THe guys you are giving me shit on are all at the bottom of my list called l"coin flip or less" and the guys you pulled out in Holmes and Conner would definitely be "less" but greater than zero imo.  I only predicted 2 from that tier. If I had to guess it would be Gbenda and Guilbeau.  Would it shock me if Watson had a stretch where he got 8 sacks in 6 games and decided to go? No.  Or Blue get his head out of his ass?  Not a surprise either.  I have that as 2/7 so what that's saying is 28% odds a guy in that tier gets drafted.  You want to say collectively that won't happen with that group of 7 fine.  

But when you say 9 when there are 8 pretty much locks that means that of the following players you only have 1 getting drafted: 

Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden,  DJ, Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden.  That seems incredibly implausible that that group would go 1 for 12 

When you say Tre, are you talking about Wisner or someone else? Wisner is a true sophomore. 

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7 minutes ago, Fud said:

I think at this point Majors is safely draftable. It’s just a matter of whether or not he wants do return for another year. He has a Covid year if he wants it 

I don't think that is true.

Majors enrolled for the 2020 Covid season.  That does not count against his eligibility.

He started/played in more than 4 games in 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2024.  If he redshirted this year he could have come back next year, but having already played 4 games he has exhausted his eligibility.

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29 minutes ago, someguy said:

I don't think that is true.

Majors enrolled for the 2020 Covid season.  That does not count against his eligibility.

He started/played in more than 4 games in 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2024.  If he redshirted this year he could have come back next year, but having already played 4 games he has exhausted his eligibility.

You gain a bonus year for covid I thought 

So redshirt 2020, and carried a covid bonus in hand

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The covid year just means it doesn't count against your eligibility - it doesn't count either as a redshirt or as a year of eligibility.  The baseline eligibility rules are the same - 5 years to use 4 years of eligibility (with certain exceptions for a medical redshirt - no applicable for Majors).  Covid year just means that year did not count for anybody for any purpose (doesn't count against one of the 4 years of playing and doesn't count as a redshirt year).  Majors "redshirted" in 2020 in the sense that he did not play.  Because 2020 was the covid year, that "redshirt" year did not count against him, so he retained his redshirt year.  He just ended up not using it.  Had Majors played in 2020 and sat out any of 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024, then the year he played in 2020 would not count (covid year) and he'd be eligible to play next year.  But that isn't what happened, so he's out of eligibility after this season.

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'll take that bet if you want to do it. I have 11 as floor and 14 as most likely.  I win if the number is above your ceiling (12). You win if the number is below my floor (11).  Deal?


Also on the 20 I said wild eyed crazy scenario where we win a national title and everyone self actualizes is 20. In no way was that a prediction. THe guys you are giving me shit on are all at the bottom of my list called l"coin flip or less" and the guys you pulled out in Holmes and Conner would definitely be "less" but greater than zero imo.  I only predicted 2 from that tier. If I had to guess it would be Gbenda and Guilbeau.  Would it shock me if Watson had a stretch where he got 8 sacks in 6 games and decided to go? No.  Or Blue get his head out of his ass?  Not a surprise either.  I have that as 2/7 so what that's saying is 28% odds a guy in that tier gets drafted.  You want to say collectively that won't happen with that group of 7 fine.  

But when you say 9 when there are 8 pretty much locks that means that of the following players you only have 1 getting drafted: 

Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden,  DJ, Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden.  That seems incredibly implausible that that group would go 1 for 12 

No bet at this stage. Like I said before, I want to see more of the season. A month from now, I think we can argue numbers again and see if there is a bet there. That would still be 6 months from the draft. 

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Moore. Tre Watson was a long time ago, I suck with names and I am a dumb dumb. Also getting old sucks. 

Moore is undersized and hasn’t dazzled. He’s been good as a contributor and I’m glad he’s at Texas. I just don’t think he’s done enough to get drafted. Lot of season left, though. 

Personally, he’s like a hobo version of Corey Moore from Va Tech 20-ish years ago. I don’t remember if that dude even got picked. 

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Moore is undersized and hasn’t dazzled. He’s been good as a contributor and I’m glad he’s at Texas. I just don’t think he’s done enough to get drafted. Lot of season left, though. 

Personally, he’s like a hobo version of Corey Moore from Va Tech 20-ish years ago. I don’t remember if that dude even got picked. 

Yeah/ he was stock down for me for sure (along with Blue), but the coaches aren’t bitching and if he falls into some sacks and stats that will obviously be helpful to his case. 

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6 minutes ago, JOSEYWALES66 said:

Cameron Williams at 8 seems ridiculously high especially for a RT.

That was my first thought as well.  Though Cleveland drafting Sanders would be so perfectly on brand for them, so maybe this list is accurate?

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Current draft odds per DVOA

1) Carolina (19.4% of getting the top pick)
2) New England (also 19.4% for the top pick)
3) Cleveland (12.6%)
4) Tennessee (8.4%)
5) Jacksonville (7.4%)
6) Las Vegas
7) Miami
'8) LA Rams
9) NY Giants
10) Indianapolis

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2 hours ago, Fud said:

Current draft odds per DVOA

1) Carolina (19.4% of getting the top pick)
2) New England (also 19.4% for the top pick)
3) Cleveland (12.6%)
4) Tennessee (8.4%)
5) Jacksonville (7.4%)
6) Las Vegas
7) Miami
'8) LA Rams
9) NY Giants
10) Indianapolis

This seems like a brutal year to need a QB at the top of the draft. I wouldn't feel good about spending a top 3 pick on any of Milroe, Ewers, Sanders, Ward, or Beck. 

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16 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This seems like a brutal year to need a QB at the top of the draft. I wouldn't feel good about spending a top 3 pick on any of Milroe, Ewers, Sanders, Ward, or Beck. 

Agree. But every year GMs talk themselves into drafting QBs in the top 10 despite tons of red flags and only about 40% of them historically shaking out (and I think that's a generous percentage, as the metrics I've seen used are "won a playoff game" or "made a pro bowl", neither of which are indicators of sustained success)

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DJ's pod had Nagy on. They asked Nagy who some of his class favorites are right now to watch for 

Josaiah Stewart- Michigan Edge
Elijah Arroyo- Miami TE
Darius Alexander- Toledo DL 

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Gabriel has to have gained some major ground this week. He looked fantastic against OSU, and the reality has set in how unbelievable it was that he dragged a Brent Venables coached team to a good offense. He's small, but he is better than whoever the Dolphins are running out each week

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4 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

Gabriel has to have gained some major ground this week. He looked fantastic against OSU, and the reality has set in how unbelievable it was that he dragged a Brent Venables coached team to a good offense. He's small, but he is better than whoever the Dolphins are running out each week

He’s a 6th-UDFA

He’s not a thing 

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1 minute ago, cmontexas said:

Gabriel has to have gained some major ground this week. He looked fantastic against OSU, and the reality has set in how unbelievable it was that he dragged a Brent Venables coached team to a good offense. He's small, but he is better than whoever the Dolphins are running out each week

He’s not an NFL quarterback. There is a reason he’s playing his 6th season of college football…the league doesn’t want him. 

He’s a really good college quarterback and he plays with a lot of heart. But he’s small with a weak arm and only moderately mobile. No amount of success he could have this season will change that, he’s only going to go up so much on draft boards 

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1) Cleveland- Shedeur Sanders
2) New England- Travis Hunter
3) Carolina- Abdul Carter
4) Trade- Las Vegas- Cam Ward
5) Tennessee- James Pearce Jr
6) LA Rams- Will Johnson
7) Jacksonville- Will Campbell
'8) Cincinnati- Mason Gram
9) NY Jets- Nic Scourton
10) NY Giants- Carson Beck
11) Trade- Miami- Kelvin Banks Jr
12) New Orleans- Tetairoa McMillan
13) Arizona- Mykel Williams
14) Trade- Indianapolis- Malaki Starks
15) Dallas- Ashton Jeanty
16) Denver- Luther Burden
17) Philadelphia- Jalon Walker
18) Chicago- Jonah Savaiinaea
19) San Francisco- Shemar Stewart
20) Trade- Seattle- Cam Williams
21) LA Chargers- Deone Walker
22) Washington- Benjamin Morrison
23) Buffalo- Kenneth Grant
24) Green Bay- Tacario Davis
25) Pittsburgh- Isaiah Bond
26) Atlanta- Landon Jackson
27) Baltimore- Aireontae Ersery
28) Tampa Bay- Colston Loveland
29) Detroit- Jack Sawyer
30) Houston- Walter Nolen
31) Kansas City- Emeka Egbuka
32) Minnesota- Derrick Harmon

 

 

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Some of these mocks have an insane amount of recency bias.

Does Carolina take a QB and give up on Young? He's still on his rookie deal so trading him would be cheap cap-wise.

Cleveland isn't taking a QB - they can't get rid of Watson until after next year at the earliest unless they can get some sucker to take him in a trade.

And to make it Shadeur brings along potentially the worst helicopter parent in the history of the NFL.

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