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Posted
44 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Warner on Ewers.

The video I've been waiting to see.

 

I like Kurt's video better than Colt's. Sorry, Colt. Love ya man.

Kurt's stuff is such a breath of fresh air among all the bullshit. Just... here's what he does well, see it right here and here. Here's where he needs to improve, see it here and here.

Posted
5 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

This is interesting some former players talking about the Tet McMilan film stuff, SIAP.

 

yeah i used to think he could be a star in the league but the more i read about him the more it seems like he has busy written all over him. doesn’t sound like he loves working hard, or playing football for that matter.

Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Drew said:

[Quinn] played as well, or better, than every QB he faced. Klubenik was the only one that I think was better.

Quinn never had to play against Texas’ defense in an actual game, so there’s that.

The thing with Quinn is that he has a few things that he “needs to clean up” in order to play in the league and yet…

He has spent 3 straight years being THE GUY under a former NFL offensive coordinator/ a guy who is seen as a top offensive mind in college. AND… he has been working with a QB coach for years.

The guy has not been goofing off. He works hard and yet he is still making these mistakes. It would be one thing is he only started one season, but he was a 3 year starter. At times I think that the game is still too fast for him. Not always, but way too often to be dependable.

 

11 hours ago, westexhorn said:

I watched Mina's draft discussion with Brugler regarding Kelvin Banks Jr.  Brugler says Banks is okay but not athletically amazing and may have some balance issues based on tape.

Negatives I have heard are:

-thick lower body vs the slimmer “dancing bear” build that mentally matches typical left tackles.

-slower foot movement that might lead to being beaten by speed rushers. A little more plodding than ideal at the tackle position.

If he doesn’t look like a Left Tackle and doesn’t move like a Left Tackle, then people are worried about drafting him too early.

On this mock draft, the only Longhorn that they took in the first round was Golden, and he went in the 20s.

image.thumb.jpeg.2ee62c516c95861cb5498eb1c834659b.jpeg

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/around-the-nfl/id680904259?i=1000702672355

 

…but they’re idiots.

Edited by Napoleon
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Posted
16 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

This is interesting some former players talking about the Tet McMilan film stuff, SIAP.

 

But but Anthony Edwards!   This is a job interview.  At least pretend like you care.  Lie.  I think he’ll be a great player as he has unique traits but this could hurt his stock

Posted

Kyren Lacy, the ex LSU wr that was charged with vehicular homicide after his reckless driving resulted in the death of an old man, then dropped out of school 2 days later and declared for the NFL Draft, found dead

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Posted
Kyren Lacy, the ex LSU wr that was charged with vehicular homicide after his reckless driving resulted in the death of an old man, then dropped out of school 2 days later and declared for the NFL Draft, found dead

Saw this earlier. What was the cause? I just saw the headline.
Posted
2 hours ago, Jkwellborn said:


Saw this earlier. What was the cause? I just saw the headline.

Believe he was going to go to jail for killing the guy in a collision and he killed himself instead

Posted
8 hours ago, Jkwellborn said:


Saw this earlier. What was the cause? I just saw the headline.

 

he took off from a possible domestic issue in houston. sheriff's found his wrecked car and a dead body inside. self inflicted wound 

Posted

ESPN put out a bust rate out for their top 7 QBs

With that background, I present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2025 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, plus how many years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability, and while it rewards improvements over time, it penalizes one-year wonders.

 

Quinn:

image.png.4fb79bb3e5ad68e6571a3528e0d5d031.png

Other QBs:

image.png.75847d562f2d579f0076cba8e170a2fb.png

image.png.81d42f746b5cfdeb6ef2fa3c57533634.png

image.png.b842610fbdaf5544feb4885faacb147e.png

image.png.7ca94d535bd495f18f659e014c14501c.png

image.png.4abaa020abeac0cf0cd3954f7431803b.png

image.png.e9ed9b0a3a5f0d864efece2182775dde.png

Posted
35 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

ESPN put out a bust rate out for their top 7 QBs

With that background, I present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2025 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, plus how many years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability, and while it rewards improvements over time, it penalizes one-year wonders.

 

Quinn:

image.png.4fb79bb3e5ad68e6571a3528e0d5d031.png

Other QBs:

image.png.75847d562f2d579f0076cba8e170a2fb.png

image.png.81d42f746b5cfdeb6ef2fa3c57533634.png

image.png.b842610fbdaf5544feb4885faacb147e.png

image.png.7ca94d535bd495f18f659e014c14501c.png

image.png.4abaa020abeac0cf0cd3954f7431803b.png

image.png.e9ed9b0a3a5f0d864efece2182775dde.png

weird, it's almost like the data shows that he may just not be that good. 

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Posted
40 minutes ago, immamac said:

weird, it's almost like the data shows that he may just not be that good. 

Yes.. but according to the data, he is the MOST not good. That should count for something. 

Posted
9 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

ESPN put out a bust rate out for their top 7 QBs

With that background, I present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2025 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, plus how many years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability, and while it rewards improvements over time, it penalizes one-year wonders.

 

Quinn:

image.png.4fb79bb3e5ad68e6571a3528e0d5d031.png

Other QBs:

image.png.75847d562f2d579f0076cba8e170a2fb.png

image.png.81d42f746b5cfdeb6ef2fa3c57533634.png

image.png.b842610fbdaf5544feb4885faacb147e.png

image.png.7ca94d535bd495f18f659e014c14501c.png

image.png.4abaa020abeac0cf0cd3954f7431803b.png

image.png.e9ed9b0a3a5f0d864efece2182775dde.png

Is there a way to bet against that QE “bust” number? He may not light the world in fire, but 96% no yards? Fuck that. 

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Posted

It doesn’t mean 0 yards. 

Quote

The quarterbacks below are listed in order of our Scouts Inc. rankings. Interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward, a value of zero Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range. 

Posted (edited)

257 picks in the draft. Just saw a write up where 13 are in the top 200, Hayden Connor projected to be drafted at 241 and Bolden  just outside the draft at like 300. 
bolden could get drafted and Connor not, obviously, or both or neither, but continues to look like 14 is the number, 13 more likely than 15, but definitely higher than 12. 
I set the over under at 12.5 and bet over so I’m super confident. 
Note- when I said we had an outside chance at 16 (around September 11) and before the season, and everyone mocked me, I said if everyone that could go and get drafted declared. It looks like 14 right now, and Campbell and Taaffe and Trey Moore absolutely would have been drafted had they declared, so bam- what started as mockery has again led to me being dead balls on accurate. 
Y’all are welcome. 
I panicked too early on Blue, was from the future on Broughton, majors and Connor having good shots at it, but gave too much credence to Holmes and Gbenda getting drafted for too long. Should have cut bait on those dudes earlier. The point was always, though, people saying 8 for sure and maybe 10 were seriously understating it and this was the optimistic case push back to that all along. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Posted
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

257 picks in the draft. Just saw a write up where 13 are in the top 200, Hayden Connor projected to be drafted at 241 and Bolden  just outside the draft at like 300. 
bolden could get drafted and Connor not, obviously, or both or neither, but continues to look like 14 is the number, 13 more likely than 15, but definitely higher than 12. 
I set the over under at 12.5 and bet over so I’m super confident. 
Note- when I said we had an outside chance at 16 (around September 11) and before the season, and everyone mocked me, I said if everyone that could go and get drafted declared. It looks like 14 right now, and Campbell and Taaffe and Trey Moore absolutely would have been drafted had they declared, so bam- what started as mockery has again led to me being dead balls on accurate. 
Y’all are welcome. 
I panicked too early on Blue, was from the future on Broughton, majors and Connor having good shots at it, but gave too much credence to Holmes and Gbenda getting drafted for too long. Should have cut bait on those dudes earlier. The point was always, though, people saying 8 for sure and maybe 10 were seriously understating it and this was the optimistic case push back to that all along. 

3f4eebad-9b47-4651-8ffe-c45604727f11_tex

Posted
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

257 picks in the draft. Just saw a write up where 13 are in the top 200, Hayden Connor projected to be drafted at 241 and Bolden  just outside the draft at like 300. 
bolden could get drafted and Connor not, obviously, or both or neither, but continues to look like 14 is the number, 13 more likely than 15, but definitely higher than 12. 
I set the over under at 12.5 and bet over so I’m super confident. 
Note- when I said we had an outside chance at 16 (around September 11) and before the season, and everyone mocked me, I said if everyone that could go and get drafted declared. It looks like 14 right now, and Campbell and Taaffe and Trey Moore absolutely would have been drafted had they declared, so bam- what started as mockery has again led to me being dead balls on accurate. 
Y’all are welcome. 
I panicked too early on Blue, was from the future on Broughton, majors and Connor having good shots at it, but gave too much credence to Holmes and Gbenda getting drafted for too long. Should have cut bait on those dudes earlier. The point was always, though, people saying 8 for sure and maybe 10 were seriously understating it and this was the optimistic case push back to that all along. 

You should quote the people claiming 8 with an outside shot at 10. They have to be in this thread, right?

You were rightly mocked for calling for 16 picks. Reasoning around why that didn’t work out doesn’t matter. They weren’t going to have 16 picks.  

Anyway, spiking the ball on the 10 yard line by declaring 13+ as a given is a choice. 

Posted (edited)
On 4/27/2024 at 10:20 PM, tokamak said:

9: Ewers, Blue, Bond, Banks, Sorrell, Collins, Moore, Barron, Mukuba

No idea on Savea. I could see Campbell and/or Williams having a good year and going early. Suppose it’s possible that Moore returns (he’s won’t be a high pick even if productive because of size). I’ll set the O/U at 10.5 and take the under. 

 

On 9/11/2024 at 9:00 AM, gurt said:

IMO none of your 50/50 guys get drafted

 

On 9/11/2024 at 9:46 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

I will absolutely take whatever money you want on that. 

 

On 9/11/2024 at 3:51 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Nahlin at IT dropped an early look (about 2 hours after I posted my bump) and had 11 guys with absolute draft grades right now and 6 or 7 that were "too early to know" that was basically my 3 year guys that I had sorted in maybe yes and maybe no.  

He had Broughton in 4th round and Majors in the 5th.  I'm not saying he's right or anything but I expect both those guys to be drafted but didn't put them in locks. 

 

On 9/20/2024 at 11:11 AM, closetojumping said:

Apparently, Gerry took some psychedelics this morning, then channeled the psyche of @Wulaw Horn  , and then he wrote a 2025 NFL draft post. I've spoilered it below. It's not quite the "push the fucking pedal through the floorboard" insanity of Wu, but it's trending there. 

1) Trey Moore isn't getting drafted, guys. He's undersized and he's not making notable plays. I don't care if the film looks fine for assignment, he needs to be making some plays at the P4 level. 

2) DJ Campbell isn't opting out of another year for a low round draft grade. He can make the same money at Texas and elevate his grade by staying for 2025. 

3) Jaydon Blue will have to go nuts soon and stay there if he's intent on going pro in a draft class considered extremely deep at TB. "He's super fast and has great hands!" is great and all. He's undersized and he doesn't have a ton of film. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Texas Longhorns and the 2025 NFL Draft

Through three games, the Texas Longhorns are on tack to have double digit NFL Draft picks for a second straight year. Today, it's time to take a look at the 2025 draft possibilities, and just how many there are. 

The list includes seven true juniors, with three likely facing tough decisions in January/February. 

NFL Draft likely or possible 

Kelvin Banks, LT, junior
Just stay healthy this season, and he's a first round lock. 

Quinn Ewers, QB, RS-junior
Will the injury history push him down the boards as the draft gets closer? His play until injury was easily his best in college. What he does in return will tell the story. 

Cameron Williams, RT, junior
NFL scouts love him. He's ascending up draft boards the more he plays. His NFL stock is all about where they league sees him going in 2026 and beyond after sitting as a backup his first season. 

Isaiah Bond, WR, Junior
Bond flashing an impressive versatility in skill set in Sarkisian's offensive scheme. He's made plays at all three levels through three games. And his speed may be south of 4.3 at combine. 

Matthew Golden, WR, junior
Just a very good all-around wide receiver. Strong on 3rd downs and in red zone. Snatches ball in traffic, and can factor into the return game. 

Alfred Collins, DL, senior
He's being accounted for by opponents. That's going to help him come draft time. Needs to play at his highest level at Texas in SEC play, and he could end up a top 3 round player. 

Andrew Mukuba, S, senior
If his improved consistency in tackling carries over through SEC play, his stock will continue to rise.

Jahdae Barron, DB, senior
Versatility is making him money this season. 

Jake Majors, C, senior
Majors is playing his way into a draft pick in April. 

Gunner Helm, TE, senior 
Stay healthy the remainder of the year, and he will be another feather in the cap of player development. 

D.J. Campbell, OG, junior 
Staying one more year would certainly be benficial, but is that in the plans?

Jaydon Blue, RB, junior 
Going to need to be very productive in SEC play. 2025 is a very deep draft class at RB. 

Barryn Sorrell, EDGE, senior 
Most consistent player in the program? He's going to be popular with NFL scouts the more they talk to the Texas staff and spend time around him. 

Trey Moore, EDGE/LB, RS-junior
Moore's play in the SEC will ultimately decide his 2025 draft stock. 

Ethan Burke, EDGE, junior
Would be drafted for sure, but staying a fourth year would be benficial. 

Stock on the rise

Quinn Ewers, QB, RS-junior
He was truly ascending pre injury. 

Isaiah Bond, WR, junior

Cameron Williams, RT, junior 

Jake Majors, C, senior

Andrew Mukuba, S, senior

Gunner Helm, TE, senior 

Matthew Golden, WR, junior 

Barryn Sorrell, EDGE, senior 

NFL stock declining through three games

Trey Moore. EDGE, junior
Has been a very solid player for the Horns, but will need to make more splash plays/sacks/QB hits and such to start ascending in SEC play. 

Amari Niblack, TE, junior
Niblack has not been targeted much, hasn't played as many snaps as expected and his strengths as a player aren't showing up for the Horns thus far. 

UDFA's

Vernon Broughton, DL, senior

Hayden Conner, OG, senior

Silas Bolden, WR/PR, senior 

Jermayne Lole, DL, senior 

David Gbenda, LB, senior 

Gavin Holmes, CB, senior 

Bert Auburn, K, senior 

 

 

On 9/20/2024 at 5:24 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Gerry is a pussy. It’s well known that all of Broughton, Conner, Bolden, Gbenda and Holmes are getting drafted. 
I mean- not all of em but I’d bet on 2. 

 

On 10/4/2024 at 9:34 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Not a surprise to me. Was almost set in stone imo after Michigan. 
I think you have to pretty much chalk up DJ to the draft as well. I am doubtful that he will want to be the only dude coming back on an entire new offensive line. Move him from written in pencil in maybe they could go to, yeah- we suspect they will go. 
Blue, on the other hand, yikes I had him likely to be top 3 or 4 rounds, he might not be at Texas next year but it won’t be because he’s getting drafted. Doing this list now 35% of the way through the season:

Sure things (8): Quinn, Banks, Bond, Helm, Collins, Sorrell, Barron, Makuba

highly likely (4): Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden,  DJ, 

coin flip or less (2): Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden 

14 right now. Absolute floor of 11 (barring catastrophic injury to one of the sure things). 
my prediction- 14.  Wild eyed crazy scenario where we win the national title and all those guys self actualize and none of them want to come back- 20. 

I’m a homer and a honk. Things don’t always work out the way they do on paper- but the over under to get half the action on one side and half on the other has to be right around 12, right?  

 

On 10/4/2024 at 10:39 AM, closetojumping said:

You just referenced the notion that 20 longhorns could get drafted in the upcoming draft in the prior paragraph. I think we can all gather that you’re a “homer and a honk“ without you spelling it out. 

Blue declared before this season that this is a “contract year”, so, yeah he won’t be back. Maybe he does his thing and once again redeems himself through the rest of the season. He’s outdone himself before, of course. As of right now, he’s a JAG and will not get drafted. There are at least 30 guys I’ve seen listed ahead of him on the draft eligible TB lists. This is a deep class for TBs. 

Guys you need to stop listing if you’d like for the rest of us to stop pointing and laughing:

1) Hayden Conner. GTFO. 

2) Holmes. He does not possess an elite skill and is undersized. 

As to Campbell, that guy is steadily losing playing time already. And he’s a guard. And he’s got mixed film. If he leaves, might he get drafted late? I guess there’s a shot. Will it have been a poor decision? Yes. There’s good money available if he wanted to return and Flood wanted him back. 

I guess I’m still deeply skeptical when it comes to Majors, Broughton, Gbenda, Campbell, Blue, Holmes, Mukuba, and Bolden. Hell, Golden isn’t a sure thing either. Conner hasn’t made a block in the running game in his fucking life. He has more whiffs on film than Rob Deer. 

I see 9 as the likely number and 12 the ceiling. 

You had 9 bro on the same day in early October I had 14, so....

This is just a sampling from the first couple pages.  When Gerry had his draft board at 13 or 14 or whatever you said he was me hopped up on psycadelics.  
To be clear- I have a back and forth between us here where I'm stressing that 16 is best case scenario but the main point is that will be closer to correct than the people saying 9 or 10 (you had 9). 
 

We didn't win the national title, not everyone self actualized (I never thought or suspected they would- I was just putting a complete and total outer bound on what could happen if everything goes perfect- which it never does in the real world).

But from 10/4 on my locks are all getting drafted- my likely 5 that I predicted 4 would go in the draft looks exactly like 4, and my coin flip 6 that I said pick 2 of looks like exactly 2.  From that point on I maintained that the over under number was 12.5 and I was betting over.  

I'm happy it's not 16 and that Taaffe, Moore and DJ, all of whom would have been drafted, are coming back.  

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

You sure about that?

image.jpeg.172e1a764d53899dc66df473ebfccfb9.jpeg

Innocent until proven guilty bro- why do you hate America?

I'd think he gets drafted somewhere but maybe all 30 teams take him off their draft boards.  

Posted
9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Innocent until proven guilty bro- why do you hate America?

I'd think he gets drafted somewhere but maybe all 30 teams take him off their draft boards.  

I’m not convicting him, but yeah, teams may not think he’s worth the hassle (in part because he just didn’t do much for half the season).

But it’s the nfl, he’ll probably be selected.

Posted
1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I’m not convicting him, but yeah, teams may not think he’s worth the hassle (in part because he just didn’t do much for half the season).

But it’s the nfl, he’ll probably be selected.

I would think he would represent very real value and risk reward at the 6th round level at the latest. 

Posted
28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I would think he would represent very real value and risk reward at the 6th round level at the latest. 

i think there's a real possibility he might be doing something other than football for several years.

 

Posted
35 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

i think there's a real possibility he might be doing something other than football for several years.

 

1/2 the 6th round picks make a roster in year 1, 20% make it to year 3. That’s why 6th round makes sense. If he’s not in jail he’s on the team. He’s got no record and he’s got money- I’d think he’d be able to work something out but I haven’t gotten past the headlines so no real idea. 

Posted
I’m not convicting him, but yeah, teams may not think he’s worth the hassle (in part because he just didn’t do much for half the season).
But it’s the nfl, he’ll probably be selected.

I’ve posted this about this Dude somewhere on Surly, but late ‘90s McNeese picked up a transfer from LSU, RB Cecil “The Diesel” Collin’s. I say “transfer,” but even as electric his early career was at LSU, his pot habit and not going to class was too much. McNeese having played for the NC (‘97) made sense for a “get your shit together”spot.

Fall camp and through about the 2/3rd game, on the road to either Youngstown State or Northern Iowa (somewhere up North), and after a great road win, airport security woke his stoned ass up in the empty coaches/players airport parking lot. This was hours after everyone had left and they were checking on the solo car being left behind, with nobody visible from a distance.

Anyways, long story made short, 1999 Jimmy Johnson and the Dolphins drafted his ass in the 5th round! NFL and the “too great an athlete” mantra took over.

That Dolphins pre-season, Collins lit it up and looked like their best RB on the roster. First couple of games into the season, after early on field success (memory is fading) maybe 3-4 games, and getting more carries each week, he F’d up again!

This time he decided to enter another apartment in his complex “naked” and was seen at the foot of a couples bed. Cops got him, because he lived like two doors down. Season over!

Last I heard, he was still incarcerated for some reason (Florida?).
808359441b2804f405610c56514141af.png

Hook’em!!!

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