2024 State Flips Game.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Pick your states to differ from 2020. Can also be the odd votes flipping from NE and ME.  Nebraska went state (R), 1st Dist. (R), 2nd Dist. (D), 3rd Dist. (R). Maine went state (D), 1st Dist. (D), 2nd Dist. (R).  

 

Honor and prestige to those that (1) get the most right with the fewest wrong; (2) do so further from the election.

 

 

[SydneyCarton 47889]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Pick your states to differ from 2020. Can also be the odd votes flipping from NE and ME.  Nebraska went state (R), 1st Dist. (R), 2nd Dist. (D), 3rd Dist. (R). Maine went state (D), 1st Dist. (D), 2nd Dist. (R).  

 

Honor and prestige to those that (1) get the most right with the fewest wrong; (2) do so further from the election.

 

 

Nevada goes Red (I know, I know)
GA goes Red. 

[RDCanecutter 26287]

Every single state flips from what it is to what it isn't. Gonna be historic.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

My

GA -> D to R

NC -> R to D

WI -> D to R

 

Final: Biden 289-249

[Incredulity 11556]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

NC -> R to D

would be interested to hear the logic behind this one.   Not arguing just curious.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Just now, Incredulity said:

would be interested to hear the logic behind this one.   Not arguing just curious.

big population change, basically.

[Js1 85117]

No changes

[Blotto 23434]

Just now, Js1 said:

No changes

That would be the most surprising outcome of all. 

[Js1 85117]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

That would be the most surprising outcome of all. 

Nevada won’t flip no matter how many people think it will 

Georgia actually recorded more Dem leaning voter registrations since 2020 than GOP. Posted that in the presidential election thread

Dont see the Midwest flipping. Especially Wisconsin now that Dem voters and independents have a reason to turn out (fair state house maps)

NC will be close but Stein won’t drag Biden across the finish line. It’ll be a big Dem governor win (6-9 points) but Trump wins by 1-2

Abortion on the ballot in Arizona will carry Biden 

Edited April 29 by Js1

[bolverk 29410]

7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

My

GA -> D to R

NC -> R to D

WI -> D to R

 

Final: Biden 289-249

I haven't checked historical voting patterns yet, but I can't see GA and NC going opposite directions. I'd bet they have similar tendencies, except NC moved farther left than GA in 2008, while GA moved farther left in 2020.

[Neonmoon 38127]

This timeline has been pretty clear it's chosen path is chaos

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

Didn't y'all hear: despite evidence of the least energized election-year voting populace in a generation and ZERO off year election results backing up this claim, we will have an unprecedented demographic shift that will push every swing state red.

[immamac 42527]

If Georgia goes R then Trump will win. If any state is getting redder that isn’t already solid red that’s a bad sign for everything. I can’t fathom Atlanta becoming more willing to vote for trump than in 2020. 

[Blotto 23434]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Nevada won’t flip no matter how many people think it will 

Georgia actually recorded more Dem leaning voter registrations since 2020 than GOP. Posted that in the presidential election thread

Dont see the Midwest flipping. Especially Wisconsin now that Dem voters and independents have a reason to turn out (fair state house maps)

NC will be close but Stein won’t drag Biden across the finish line. It’ll be a big Dem governor win (6-9 points) but Trump wins by 1-2

Abortion on the ballot in Arizona will carry Biden 

What you say on a state by state basis may very well be true. But you start multiplying probabilities and shit will change. Not a prediction of which state or which direction, just that change is inevitable. 

[Js1 85117]

3 minutes ago, Blotto said:

What you say on a state by state basis may very well be true. But you start multiplying probabilities and shit will change. Not a prediction of which state or which direction, just that change is inevitable. 

I just haven’t seen much to prove that it won’t just be 2020 redux. That’s been my prediction since the midterms in 2022 decimated the “red wave” polling

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Just now, Js1 said:

I just haven’t seen much to prove that it won’t just be 2020 redux. That’s been my prediction since the midterms in 2022 decimated the “red wave” polling

i've seen one thing: we've never had the same map twice in a row.

[Red Five 40666]

Hopefully Biden doesn't lose ground running against a convicted felon who attempted a failed coup on his way out the door last time.

[mdmost 42866]

Yeah but the cost of McDonald's and Chick-fil-a went up. Nevada and Arizona I could see going red because the desert is full of loons. I don't see Wisconsin going red. Georgia should stay blue but there's enough fuckery going on voting rights that I could see that flipping.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

No flips

 

[Incredulity 11556]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i've seen one thing: we've never had the same map twice in a row.

agreed, counts were too close in 2020 for there not to be some change in either direction.

[immamac 42527]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I just haven’t seen much to prove that it won’t just be 2020 redux. That’s been my prediction since the midterms in 2022 decimated the “red wave” polling

I remember 2022 being essentially a complete disaster for republicans. 

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i've seen one thing: we've never had the same map twice in a row.

I honestly can’t think of much that is different from 2020 except for the emigration from California (largely red voters) to other already red states. 

[Js1 85117]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i've seen one thing: we've never had the same map twice in a row.

Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe go fuck yourself?

Im not placing money on it bc betting on the American public is a stupid endeavor. It’s just been my prediction for almost a year and a half now 

[Neonmoon 38127]

5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Hopefully Biden doesn't lose ground running against a convicted felon who attempted a failed coup on his way out the door last time.

Every time I watch the news, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. 

Interviewee: I don't know if I can support Biden because [insert traditional policy difference]

Interviewer: Yeah, that's understandable.

ME YELLING: The other guy is going to deport you and imprison your family you dumb fuck!!!

 

[mdmost 42866]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Every time I watch the news, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. 

Interviewee: I don't know if I can support Biden because [insert traditional policy difference]

Interviewer: Yeah, that's understandable.

ME YELLING: The other guy is going to deport you and imprison your family you dumb fuck!!!

 

Yeah but this country needs a disruptor. I'm tired of the status quo. What's that? My family is fucked and I'm the one the target is being placed on and not the other guy? Well, why didn't anyone tell me this was going to happen? Thanks a lot, Joe Biden!

[Blotto 23434]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

 Thanks a lot, Joe Biden!

He learned it from watching Obama

[Red Five 40666]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Every time I watch the news, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. 

Interviewee: I don't know if I can support Biden because [insert traditional policy difference]

Interviewer: Yeah, that's understandable.

ME YELLING: The other guy is going to deport you and imprison your family you dumb fuck!!!

 

"Well Biden hasn't produced peace in the middle east yet, so I'm voting for the other guy."

"Perfectly understandable. This voter has been given no choice but to vote for Trump. Back to you Bob."

[mdmost 42866]

I was on a different forum where a guy was trying to argue that some on the left aren't going to vote for Biden because they blame him for Roe v Wade going away. Yes, it's his fault Trump appointed justices voted to repeal Roe. I decided it was time to not engage with that forum any longer. 

[immamac 42527]

I feel like WFH and general living in a bubble has started to drastically affect people. 

I was just walking through the airport looking around. Everyone is glued to their phone, no one has any idea what the fuck is going on around them and I bet if someone asked the majority of folks their opinion on something that wasn’t impacting their immediate future or plans they would have no opinion or a very unformed one. 

 

[Js1 85117]

6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I was on a different forum where a guy was trying to argue that some on the left aren't going to vote for Biden because they blame him for Roe v Wade going away. Yes, it's his fault Trump appointed justices voted to repeal Roe. I decided it was time to not engage with that forum any longer. 

These are trolls being used to push misinformation 

[Brisketexan 104636]

27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i've seen one thing: we've never had the same map twice in a row.

We've also never had a back-to-back rematch before.  Unprecedented shit fo sho.

[tx 3 putt 76414]

If R’s flip some states it’s gonna have to he a grass roots effort. Lara Trump isn’t going help much (if any) with funding 

[GopherRock 1765]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

I remember 2022 being essentially a complete disaster for republicans. 

I honestly can’t think of much that is different from 2020 except for the emigration from California (largely red voters) to other already red states. 

Abortion abortion abortion. This is a big reason why Arizona is going to stay blue, and is one of the two big question marks for the presidential.

1. The Republican nominee for governor in NC makes Roger Taney look like an abolitionist. If the Democrat wins governor by daylight, does he drag Biden across the wire there? 

2. Abortion on the ballot in Florida is unlikely to get the 60% needed for passage. However, does this ballot measure crank up blue turnout enough to spoil the party for Rick Scott and/or Trump? Florida is also the only spot on the board for the blue team to try playing offense in the Senate (sorry Texas, but if Beto couldn't get rid of Cruz in 2018, it's not happening now), so resources will not be a problem.

My pick: same as 2020 except Biden wins North Carolina.

[BamaATL 16592]

5 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Abortion abortion abortion. This is a big reason why Arizona is going to stay blue, and is one of the two big question marks for the presidential.

1. The Republican nominee for governor in NC makes Roger Taney look like an abolitionist. If the Democrat wins governor by daylight, does he drag Biden across the wire there? 

2. Abortion on the ballot in Florida is unlikely to get the 60% needed for passage. However, does this ballot measure crank up blue turnout enough to spoil the party for Rick Scott and/or Trump? Florida is also the only spot on the board for the blue team to try playing offense in the Senate (sorry Texas, but if Beto couldn't get rid of Cruz in 2018, it's not happening now), so resources will not be a problem.

My pick: same as 2020 except Biden wins North Carolina.

This is my gut as well, chalk save North Carolina being in play and I think a Democratic upset.  

Biden 319

Trump 219

Dems very narrowly retain the Senate, take back the house.  

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

 

Just now, BamaATL said:

This is my gut as well, chalk save North Carolina being in play and I think a Democratic upset.  

Biden 319

Trump 219

Dems very narrowly retain the Senate, take back the house.  

Pretty much my thoughts. 

Biden adds to 2020 win total

51D-49R senate

Blue wave in House

[tx 3 putt 76414]

Have to keep the senate to have any hopes of possibly changing the supreme court 

[Js1 85117]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We've also never had a back-to-back rematch before.  Unprecedented shit fo sho.

That is not true

Jefferson-Adams 1796 and 1800 (Adams wins round 1, Jefferson wins round 2)
Quincy Adams-Jackson 1824 and 1828 (with some others) (JAQ wins round 1, Jackson wins round 2)
Van Buren-Harrison 1836 and 1840 (Van Buren wins round 1, Harrison wins round 2)
Cleveland-Harrison 1888 and 1892 (Harrison wins round 1, Cleveland wins round 2) 
McKinley-Bryan 1896 and 1900 (McKinley won both)
Eisenhower-Stevenson 1952 and 1956 (Ike won both)

[Js1 85117]

Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

51D-49R senate

 

To get 51, Dems have to win TX or FL.  Or have Murkowski flip to indy and caucus with the Dems.

I still have it 50/50

[BamaATL 16592]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

That is not true

Jefferson-Adams 1796 and 1800 (Adams wins round 1, Jefferson wins round 2)
Quincy Adams-Jackson 1824 and 1828 (with some others) (JAQ wins round 1, Jackson wins round 2)
Van Buren-Harrison 1836 and 1840 (Van Buren wins round 1, Harrison wins round 2)
Cleveland-Harrison 1888 and 1892 (Harrison wins round 1, Cleveland wins round 2) 
McKinley-Bryan 1896 and 1900 (McKinley won both)
Eisenhower-Stevenson 1952 and 1956 (Ike won both)

Interesting thought, do historians typically consider post WW2 to be modern times or is it sliding further towards us now?  

[Brisketexan 104636]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That is not true

Jefferson-Adams 1796 and 1800 (Adams wins round 1, Jefferson wins round 2)
Quincy Adams-Jackson 1824 and 1828 (with some others) (JAQ wins round 1, Jackson wins round 2)
Van Buren-Harrison 1836 and 1840 (Van Buren wins round 1, Harrison wins round 2)
Cleveland-Harrison 1888 and 1892 (Harrison wins round 1, Cleveland wins round 2) 
McKinley-Bryan 1896 and 1900 (McKinley won both)
Eisenhower-Stevenson 1952 and 1956 (Ike won both)

Good catch. I was thinking with the "in modern times" modifier, but I still didn't recall Ike and Stevenson.

[Goredho 17349]

Take this shit to the conference realignment thread.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

To get 51, Dems have to win TX or FL.  Or have Murkowski flip to indy and caucus with the Dems.

I still have it 50/50

I know WV is an R pickup, but what's the other? 

[Js1 85117]

Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

I know WV is an R pickup, but what's the other? 

Dems currently have a 51-49 majority (48 D, 3 independents)

WV flips automatically.  50/50

Dems would need to win Arizona, Ohio, Montana to keep it 50/50.  Would have to flip TX/FL to get to 51. 

[YGIFS 19449]

45 minutes ago, immamac said:

I remember 2022 being essentially a complete disaster for republicans. 

I honestly can’t think of much that is different from 2020 except for the emigration from California (largely red voters) to other already red states. 

Yes.  Three things on this:

1.  They are moving to states already solid/lean right.  Their migration isn't changing anything in their current numbers unless for some reason some Orange County or Sand Hill road companies suddenly decide Kenosha, WI is the place to be with its great weather and foodie scene.  

2.  The Demography shifts in many lean right southern states with lots of suburbs move off-set those out-of-state red voters moving in.  Not this cycle, but by 2032 for sure.  

3.  I don't know why "we have the receipts" crowd against folks like Abbott and Patrick haven't come forward with social media blazes/memes/etc.  For 8 years, neither of those guys---whether in small groups, campaign stumps, or online couldn't shut the fuck up about all these coastal liberals moving to Texas and trying to shift it blue.  Then one day, it just magically pivoted on a dime and became "These fellow conservatives are fleeing oppressive liberal regimes in New York, Illinois, and California to come to Texas to live freely and prosper!"  Well which one is it, Governor?  Either you can vote with your feet, or you can't.  

[Js1 85117]

52 minutes ago, immamac said:

I honestly can’t think of much that is different from 2020 except for the emigration from California (largely red voters) to other already red states. 

Dobbs decision.

The suburban females are still pissed about it.  Any conservative/GOP spin doctor who tries to tell you "it doesn't matter in 2024" is lying to you 

[Wally Fairway 5525]

32 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I was on a different forum where a guy was trying to argue that some on the left aren't going to vote for Biden because they blame him for Roe v Wade going away. Yes, it's his fault Trump appointed justices voted to repeal Roe. I decided it was time to not engage with that forum any longer. 

And he hasn't delivered student debt forgiveness to all, I think that drove a large number of young voters (I have a few in my family). Sure he as tried to piecmeal it but that hasn't been what he promised. 
I've heard there is weakening support in minorities (gender and race); again the young voters on campus seem to be the backbone of the Palestinian support which is a strike against.

The shift doesn't have to be that great, if MI/Penn/GA - that flips 50 electoral college votes, and that would take less than a million voters to not show up. I am truly afraid of that type of outcome.

[BamaATL 16592]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dems currently have a 51-49 majority (48 D, 3 independents)

WV flips automatically.  50/50

Dems would need to win Arizona, Ohio, Montana to keep it 50/50.  Would have to flip TX/FL to get to 51. 

Just to be clear I think Dem's get the Senate race in Florida over Scott, which is the biggest surprise of the night.  

[Biff Tannen 45500]

30 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Have to keep the senate to have any hopes of possibly changing the supreme court 

Even if Dems control everything, they don't have the stones to do anything.  Unbelievable.

[mdmost 42866]

13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

And he hasn't delivered student debt forgiveness to all, I think that drove a large number of young voters (I have a few in my family). Sure he as tried to piecmeal it but that hasn't been what he promised. 
I've heard there is weakening support in minorities (gender and race); again the young voters on campus seem to be the backbone of the Palestinian support which is a strike against.

The shift doesn't have to be that great, if MI/Penn/GA - that flips 50 electoral college votes, and that would take less than a million voters to not show up. I am truly afraid of that type of outcome.

Those Palestinian supporters are really going to have something to protest once Trump doesn't even give a shit about giving aid to Gaza. Well, I guess until their families get deported when the Muslim ban returns and the deportations Trump has telegraphed start happening. 

[Js1 85117]

Just now, mdmost said:

Those Palestinian supporters are really going to have something to protest once Trump doesn't even give a shit about giving aid to Gaza. Well, I guess until their families get deported when the Muslim ban returns and the deportations Trump has telegraphed start happening. 

You mean when Gaza gets glassed into oblivion by Bibi and Trump would say "that's fine." 

[Horn Dog 9674]

Cali -->  R

Texas --> D

You heard it here first!