2024 State Flips Game.

[Incredulity 11556]

5 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Cali -->  R

Texas --> D

You heard it here first!

 

pretty sure the Republican party would take that deal.

[SydneyCarton 47889]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

I haven't checked historical voting patterns yet, but I can't see GA and NC going opposite directions. I'd bet they have similar tendencies, except NC moved farther left than GA in 2008, while GA moved farther left in 2020.

I think there were a lot of GA voters who didn't bother in 2020 becuase they thought they were solidly red. Plus bad Senate candidates. I think they'll find some more voters in 2024 than they did in 2020, enought to eek it back red. 

1 hour ago, immamac said:

If Georgia goes R then Trump will win. If any state is getting redder that isn’t already solid red that’s a bad sign for everything. I can’t fathom Atlanta becoming more willing to vote for trump than in 2020. 

Biden could lose GA and still win if he keeps AZ. Hell, Biden could lose NV and GA and still win. So for your prediction to happen, it means that other states flipped from Red to Blue. Which ones are you proposing?

[BamaATL 16592]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think there were a lot of GA voters who didn't bother in 2020 becuase they thought they were solidly red. Plus bad Senate candidates. I think they'll find some more voters in 2024 than they did in 2020, enought to eek it back red. 

Biden could lose GA and still win if he keeps AZ. Hell, Biden could lose NV and GA and still win. So for your prediction to happen, it means that other states flipped from Red to Blue. Which ones are you proposing?

Gonna have to disagree with you on Georgia, everyone was keenly aware.  Then after that we had a Senate runoff and everyone showed.  Dem win for Ossof.  Same against Herschel two years later.  Georgia is highly engaged for both parties.  

[SydneyCarton 47889]

I hope I'm wrong. But we'll see. 

Few people feel good about what's on the line this fall, and at the end of the day, if Trump were to win he's going to have to win states he lost in 2020. What states are the most likely?

[bolverk 29410]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I hope I'm wrong. But we'll see. 

Few people feel good about what's on the line this fall, and at the end of the day, if Trump were to win he's going to have to win states he lost in 2020. What states are the most likely?

Wisconsin and Georgia make me the most nervous.

[SydneyCarton 47889]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Wisconsin and Georgia make me the most nervous.

Like others, I feel good about Wisconsin becuase of the people in control of the state government and the new maps should galvanize voters, mostly D. But maybe I'm overly optimistic.  

[Js1 85117]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Like others, I feel good about Wisconsin becuase of the people in control of the state government and the new maps should galvanize voters, mostly D. But maybe I'm overly optimistic.  

Plus the WI Dem chair is so legit.  Also a case where a pretty lackluster GOP Senate candidate may drag down the top of the ticket. 

[bolverk 29410]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Like others, I feel good about Wisconsin becuase of the people in control of the state government and the new maps should galvanize voters, mostly D. But maybe I'm overly optimistic.  

Yeah, I understand feeling that way because it lessens the chance of any hijinx. For whatever reason, though, my gut just tells me to not trust Wisconsin.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Trump has proven logic does not apply when predicting election results he is involved in.  So who the fuck knows.  But I think the betting favorite would be a repeat of 2020.  AZ, GA, WI, and NV will all be within 3 points.  NC and MI will be closely contested, within say 5 points.  If you asked me to make a prediction that goes against odds, it would be that I think Pennsylvania will not be close, Biden will run away with that state.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Dems currently have a 51-49 majority (48 D, 3 independents)

WV flips automatically.  50/50

Dems would need to win Arizona, Ohio, Montana to keep it 50/50.  Would have to flip TX/FL to get to 51. 

[Dnaguy 11777]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 

Pretty much my thoughts. 

Biden adds to 2020 win total

51D-49R senate

Blue wave in House

 

Am I using a VPN?

This post is making me hard.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Dobbs decision.

The suburban females are still pissed about it.  Any conservative/GOP spin doctor who tries to tell you "it doesn't matter in 2024" is lying to you 

And all this dog killing talk is going to further alienate the Gen Z/ Millennial SWFs! 

 

[immamac 42527]

I think 2024 will be an absolute blowout EC win for Biden. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Handsome and courageous people that submitted ballots on day 1:

SydneyCarton

NV -> D to R

GA -> D to R

Behold The Underminer!

GA -> D to R

NC -> R to D

WI -> D to R

Js1

Nothing

Neonmoon

GA -> D to R

NV -> D to R

WI -> D to R

NE2 -> D to R

Zonahorn

Nothing

GopherRock

NC -> R to D

BamaATL

NC -> R to D

PescadoRojo

NC -> R to D

[Js1 85117]

@Zonahorn

[YGIFS 19449]

Given the party composition of Class I, the fact that serious people are projecting the Democrats may still hold the Senate, and even possibly pickup a seat.  Especially given that about a half-dozen of those seats "up for grabs" are in POTUS swing states.  That's very telling to me and certainly doesn't jive with this "But Trump is up tremendously in all nationwide polling!"  

2 years ago, despite holding back the "Red Tide", I still thought Class I was gonna easily flip the Senate back to the GOP no matter who won the EC.  But a 50/50 + Harris is now very much a possibility.  I wouldn't hold my breath and get ready to likely deal with about 52-48 situation for the Republicans, but they keep finding ways to fuck shit up so you never know?  If you can win back the House and not have Sotomayor die on the bench, you can make some massive splashes in 2026.  Because Class II is much more favorable for the Democrats, IMO.  And you can finally elect a Democratic President take over for another one, not for death or assassination, for the first time in nearly 170 years.  Then ride that out until 2032 census results/redistricting/the likely disengagement of the 25mm MAGA diehards after continual losses and Trump's death.  And then we go back to what worked for centuries.  Two lame, somewhat corrupt, but sane parties that do that thing we used to do around here.  What was it called again?  Oh yeah, the USA.   

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

4 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

And you can finally elect a Democratic President take over for another one, not for death or assassination, for the first time in nearly 170 years. 

that's a pretty funny way to get around the FDR to Truman 20 straight years.

[YGIFS 19449]

Truman was elected office after a fellow Democrat left office alive/termed-out?  I didn't know that.  Perhaps the Roosevelt family would care to know more about that.  I suppose Johnson took over for a living Kennedy?  

I'll make it not-so-funny.  No Democratic President has ever been elected to POTUS after a fellow Democratic President voluntarily left office/termed-out (remember we've only had term limits for 74 years) since Buchanan won after Pearce voluntarily declined to run for re-election after awhile.  That was in 1856.  Everyone else you're thinking of since then, either lost or took over the Oval from a corpse. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

I’m aware.  I’m laughing at your dumb caveat to make what is ordinary look uncommon — so ordinary that we had 20 straight years of Ds getting elected and ‘32-‘68 was entirely D minus 1. Who cares about the caveat of how the previous left office?

[YGIFS 19449]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I’m aware.  I’m laughing at your dumb caveat to make what is ordinary look uncommon — so ordinary that we had 20 straight years of Ds getting elected and ‘32-‘68 was entirely D minus 1. Who cares about the caveat of how the previous left office?

Probably the widows?  

I know it's a big caveat, but it's also a big period of history.  170 years is beyond anecdote, that's almost 70% of our history.  That's not nothing.  No back-to-back elected Democrats.  But for Eisenhower (who was a great POTUS, IMO), yes that party had a helluva run but a lot of it was due to no term limits and death.  I think 2028 can be the first time it can happen again.  And then after 2032, we can get onto a proper track again.  But of course, the elephant in the room is we gotta survive 2024 first in the Oval and both Chambers of Congress.  Because this SCOTUS ain't tilting anytime soon, and the 25mm MAGA loyalists are aging but they're only getting crazier and angrier.  

Bottom line though, the fact that people I take real serious are now going from Class I landslide for GOP to "maybe a 51-49 Republican majority" to "Kamala may be even more important to the Senate in 2025+" is quite telling.  

[gmr548 16518]

On 4/29/2024 at 11:36 AM, immamac said:

If Georgia goes R then Trump will win. If any state is getting redder that isn’t already solid red that’s a bad sign for everything. I can’t fathom Atlanta becoming more willing to vote for trump than in 2020. 

This ignores demographic differences between states. The shifts that theoretically pull a GA or a NV into the R column may or may not have much of an impact in 80%+ white and much older states like WI, MI, and PA; and could even cause drift in the opposite direction.

I think GA goes narrowly R this cycle. I think NV does too. I know @Js1 will roast me for that but the GOP has had some intermittent success in NV over the past decade, most recently a Governor's race in 2022, and the coalitions that delivered each state for Biden appear to have legitimate fractures. 

AZ is a complete wildcard. Fundamentally it's not far from NV but the prominence of abortion an the absolute toxicity of the state GOP bring it back into tossup category. Gallego is also a strong Senate candidate and his campaign could elevate Biden a bit. 

I don't see Trump finding 100k+ votes in MI or PA, even with the mess in Gaza. WI is one of the 2-3 legitimately 50-50 states in the country and could go either way, but Democrats there have been on a roll and have a generational opportunity at the state level.

I think it will ultimately come down to WI and AZ. I think Biden needs both because Trump will put pressure on NE to go winner take all, the state level GOP will give in very late in the cycle and ram it through in a special session, and Maine will not have the ability or the appetite to respond in kind.

Senate goes GOP 51-49 and the House is Democratic - not by a huge margin but more cushion than the GOP has now.

Edited May 4 by gmr548

[Js1 85117]

NV governor race was over very state-specific issues (COVID restrictions) that did not translate up to the senate race or down to the other row offices.

I don’t see it. 

[Post Oak 20187]

X-post 

 

just listened to this pod today with Caroline Spears or Climate Cabinet. It's worth a listen imo.

She and her organization are trying to "Moneyball" elections for candidates who are good on climate. 

They throw their money behind everyone from local water boards up to state legislature. 

Basically their goal is to find elections throughout the country where they can get the most bang for their buck.

One of her talking points was being bipartisan, kinda.  So they have looked through the way every candidate has voted in the last four years around the country.  They graded their votes as how beneficial or detrimental it was to climate.  They found 1000 Dems who received an A+ grade and 9 Rs.

If they think the Rs are good on climate they give support them without advertising. 

She talks about how ridiculous Rs are on climate. Citing examples about them being against the ideas of 15minute cities.  

Meanwhile Dems who are good on climate also seem to be good on affordable housing, public transport etc. 

I'm going to donate to them.  If you like the pod and want to as well here's their website.

https://climatecabinet.org/

[SydneyCarton 47889]

5 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

X-post 

 

just listened to this pod today with Caroline Spears or Climate Cabinet. It's worth a listen imo.

She and her organization are trying to "Moneyball" elections for candidates who are good on climate. 

They throw their money behind everyone from local water boards up to state legislature. 

Basically their goal is to find elections throughout the country where they can get the most bang for their buck.

One of her talking points was being bipartisan, kinda.  So they have looked through the way every candidate has voted in the last four years around the country.  They graded their votes as how beneficial or detrimental it was to climate.  They found 1000 Dems who received an A+ grade and 9 Rs.

If they think the Rs are good on climate they give support them without advertising. 

She talks about how ridiculous Rs are on climate. Citing examples about them being against the ideas of 15minute cities.  

Meanwhile Dems who are good on climate also seem to be good on affordable housing, public transport etc. 

I'm going to donate to them.  If you like the pod and want to as well here's their website.

https://climatecabinet.org/

Absolutely.

 

 

[Post Oak 20187]

10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Absolutely.

 

 

Yep. And she's fucking smart 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Revising after the terrible debate.  New prediction:

 

Spoiler