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Here we go again: People getting Bird Flu

Parliament

By Parliament
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chainsaw

chainsaw 10240

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

He’s just passing on WHO’s statement.  I’m curious to see if the raw milk drinkers who are deliberately buying from infected herds get it.

I think his ALL CAPS embellishment finds no support in the WHO's release. They don't quite go so far as to confirm that he never had any contact with any animals.

Here's the part that came immediately after the screenshotted portion:
 

Quote

 

In March 2024, a high pathogenicity avian influenza A(H5N2) outbreak was detected in a backyard poultry farm in the state of Michoacán, which borders the State of Mexico where the case was residing

Additionally, in March 2024, an outbreak of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5N2) was identified in poultry in Texcoco, State of Mexico, and a second outbreak of LPAI A(H5N2) in April in the municipality of Temascalapa in the same state. Thus far, it has not been possible to establish if this human case is related to the recent poultry outbreaks (1).

 

So, two outbreaks in the same state where he lived. Wouldn't shock me if he had exposure to some bird shit, undercooked meat, or another vector.

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ABSR

ABSR 5357

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Parliament said:

Aggy has a large avian science department.  Has anyone checked them out as the vector?

Are you implying this is sexually transmitted?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90538

Posted
Posted

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/bird-flu-detected-in-austin-wastewater/
 

Quote

Austin Public Health announced Thursday that the Texas Epidemic Public Health Institute had detected traces of H5N1, or bird flu, in the city’s wastewater, according to a press release.

The agency said that the “risk to the public remains low,” and that no human cases have been reported locally. 

Quote

“The detection of influenza viruses in wastewater does not necessarily indicate undetected human cases,” APH said in its release. “Influenza in wastewater can also come from other sources, such as birds or livestock or secretions/excretions into wastewater from infected cows or other animals in the area.”

So far, one Texas farmworker has contracted the virus, according to the Texas Department of Health and Human Services. Nationally, two other human cases of bird flu have been reported. All three cases have had “mild illness,” according to APH.

 

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unoriginal

unoriginal 55

Posted
Posted
On 6/6/2024 at 9:50 AM, Incredulity said:

First death

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people?embedded-checkout=true

Mexican government is disputing the cause of death.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-health-ministry-bird-flu-patient-died-chronic-disease-not-virus-2024-06-07/

 

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Deej

Deej 77661

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Hey, some good news.  We also have West Nile virus again in Austin because stupid people leave out empty receptacles to collect all this Spring rain.  

I tested positive for West Nile antibodies during lockdown after having crushing neck pain and headaches for weeks. Doc said it was likely West Nile meningitis. DEET is your friend.

Edited by Deej
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YGIFS

YGIFS 19456

Posted
Posted

Yeah, a good friend I knew had that awhile back and said it was excruciating.  

I'd rather use DDT than DEET, but Rachel Carson had to get all mouthy on us.  

I don't want to discount bird flu, but it's a statistical rarity.  But mosquito borne illnesses are beyond commonplace all over the world, even here in America (we just better medicines/treatments to combat them). 

But just fucking blows me away in Texas after almost 30 years here, with all our humidity, people just leave empty planters/potters sitting out, kiddie pools, work buckets, etc.  For months on end, just collecting rainwater, serving as nightclubs for mosquitoes.  I try my best not to use chemicals in my yard because we're right next to a fair-sized creek and lots of kids/dogs in the 'hood.  But people can just start with the most basic of shit, don't create pools of water for mosquito breeding.  Really not that fucking hard.  

Full disclosure, I ate the bat in Wuhan.  And during a Ortolan Bunting dinner, I may have started this latest Bird Flu.  

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Deej

Deej 77661

Posted
Posted

The worst I've ever felt in my life. Headaches that were only relieved for 20 or 30 minutes by throwing up. lt was during peak COVID and more than one night I thought about calling 911 for a ride to the hospital, but didn't want to get exposed to something else on top of it

.

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Bevo

Bevo 13817

Posted
Posted (edited)

So was this another one caused by Chinese housing lots of ducks and/or chickens and lots of pigs together with poor sanitary conditions.

Edited by Bevo
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26773

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

On the regular flu—>Covid—>Black Death spectrum, how fatal is this thing?

Well, untreated bubonic plague has a case-fatality ratio of 30-60%, and the case-fatality rate for reported cases of H5N1 in humans over the last 20 years has been 54%, so at the moment it appears to be in Black Death territory. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26773

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Well, untreated bubonic plague has a case-fatality ratio of 30-60%, and the case-fatality rate for reported cases of H5N1 in humans over the last 20 years has been 54%, so at the moment it appears to be in Black Death territory. 

When I first went down the rabbit hole on this stuff in the early 2000s, an H5N1 pandemic was considered potentially devastating on a scale from merely horrible (50-100mm dead at the low end) to possibly apocalyptic, meaning 1-2B deaths and a partial collapse of civilization. So it's worth a closer look at the numbers

I should add - the actual CFR for H5N1 is probably much lower, studies indicate something closer to 14-33%. That's compared to a CFR of 2.5% for the 1918 flu. 
 

The 1918 flu probably infected around 1/3 of the population and most estimates have it that about 60-75% of the global population has contracted COVID at least once. 

Conservatively, if 25% of the global population contracted H5N1 with a CFR of 14% that would be 294MM deaths globally, and about 12mm deaths in the US. 

66% infection rate and a CFR of 33% would be 1.76B deaths globally, with 72MM American lives lost and a reordering of society, at the very least. 

Happy monday!
 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106607

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

When I first went down the rabbit hole on this stuff in the early 2000s, an H5N1 pandemic was considered potentially devastating on a scale from merely horrible (50-100mm dead at the low end) to possibly apocalyptic, meaning 1-2B deaths and a partial collapse of civilization. So it's worth a closer look at the numbers

I should add - the actual CFR for H5N1 is probably much lower, studies indicate something closer to 14-33%. That's compared to a CFR of 2.5% for the 1918 flu. 
 

The 1918 flu probably infected around 1/3 of the population and most estimates have it that about 60-75% of the global population has contracted COVID at least once. 

Conservatively, if 25% of the global population contracted H5N1 with a CFR of 14% that would be 294MM deaths globally, and about 12mm deaths in the US. 

66% infection rate and a CFR of 33% would be 1.76B deaths globally, with 72MM American lives lost and a reordering of society, at the very least. 

Happy monday!
 

[Brisketexan, reviewing current timeline]  Yep....this all checks out and totally fits.  Sure, why not, what the hell, let's give it a whirl.  [/Brisketexan, reviewing current timeline]

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18424

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

is this bad? It seems bad.

This shit could kill off 14-33% of Americans who use phrases like “face diaper” and “Fauci ouchie” unironically. So maybe not all bad?

Edited by BrickHorn
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Deej

Deej 77661

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

When I first went down the rabbit hole on this stuff in the early 2000s, an H5N1 pandemic was considered potentially devastating on a scale from merely horrible (50-100mm dead at the low end) to possibly apocalyptic, meaning 1-2B deaths and a partial collapse of civilization. So it's worth a closer look at the numbers

I should add - the actual CFR for H5N1 is probably much lower, studies indicate something closer to 14-33%. That's compared to a CFR of 2.5% for the 1918 flu. 
 

The 1918 flu probably infected around 1/3 of the population and most estimates have it that about 60-75% of the global population has contracted COVID at least once. 

Conservatively, if 25% of the global population contracted H5N1 with a CFR of 14% that would be 294MM deaths globally, and about 12mm deaths in the US. 

66% infection rate and a CFR of 33% would be 1.76B deaths globally, with 72MM American lives lost and a reordering of society, at the very least. 

Happy monday!
 

Might help with climate change.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Victor Lazlo said:

So, this is really going to be a thing?

If we see human to human transmission. And then, probably wont be optimized even if, but hold your butt if nature finds a way. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26773

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This is what a natural spill over looks like. For the probability experts. 

 

6 hours ago, Anastasis said:

If we see human to human transmission. And then, probably wont be optimized even if, but hold your butt if nature finds a way. 

Exactly. But for what it’s worth- literally every infection brings us closer. 

We’re not completely unprepared. H5N1 is a flu strain, and we know some things about flu. We can make vaccines that work pretty well. We have good tests. We know how to run an economy on remote workers. It doesn’t really spread asymptomatically, and masks/handwashing are quite effective at prevent transmission. 

But the required element unpinning any successful pandemic response is social cohesion because we have to act in concert and voluntarily comply with what we are asked to do. I can’t speak to that in the rest of the world, but in the US social cohesion and voluntary compliance are in short supply at the moment. 

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South Austin

South Austin 53151

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Efficient global travel and burgeoning social media have enabled the most dangerous pandemic ever experienced on Earth -- stupidity.

And if there was an effective vaccine for that, 50% of Americans would reject it.

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18424

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This is what a natural spill over looks like. For the probability experts. 

Lulz. You say this as if epidemiologists always detect small clusters of animal-to-human transmission of a virus before it starts spreading human-to-human. But that’s not at all the case. For example, we had no idea HIV was a thing until long after it began transmitting between humans. The 2008 swine flu wasn’t detected until it was already spreading in human populations. To the extent it is understood that these diseases initially infected humans through animal vectors, that was determined only through hindsight investigation (e.g. by examining preserved tissue or blood samples).

If you’re arguing that it’s improbable that an infectious disease would emerge naturally without us first detecting scattered animal-to-human dead end cases, you’re ignoring prominent cases for which that was exactly what happened. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106607

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, dumb question:  how are the cows getting it?

By fucking birds.  Duh.

So, just to be safe, I've sworn off of fucking either birds OR cattle, and I recommend the same for all.

My new plan for health safety is NOT going over well in College Station.

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Bevo

Bevo 13817

Posted
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, just to be safe, I've sworn off of fucking either birds OR cattle, and I recommend the same for all.

 

ves9ze87lzj31.jpg?auto=webp&s=4fc5e35638

 

So, you don't think this baby hummingbird is cute?

Edited by Bevo
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