Here we go again: People getting Bird Flu

[Blotto 23509]

3 hours ago, South Austin said:

And if there was an effective vaccine for that, 50% of Americans would reject it.

I've got 3 tons of paste in a storage unit off of burnet. Who wants in on my Ivermectin Soup Bucket startup?

**partnership investment will require purchasing 10% share (minimum). Offer limited to the first 25 responders.

Edited July 16 by Blotto

[jimmyjazz 45952]

I will never tire of seeing Jim Bakker push shitty potato soup buckets.  His greatest hits:

 

[Deej 76791]

Deluxe coffee and creamer bucket?

[YGIFS 19450]

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

I've got 3 tons of paste in a storage unit off of burnet. Who wants in on my Ivermectin Soup Bucket startup?

 

**partnership investment will require purchasing 10% share (minimum). Offer limited to the first 25 responders.

Mmm, sounds like it could be second favorite horse-based stew after:

 

[Anastasis 23469]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

To the extent it is understood that these diseases initially infected humans through animal vectors, that was determined only through hindsight investigation (e.g. by examining preserved tissue or blood samples).

It feels like you are so very close to a breakthrough. Yes H1N1, MERS, and SARS1 all had fairly definitive epidemiological chains and intermediate hosts identified shortly after outbreak. For MERS they had serological data from camel herds, likewise the intermediate hosts and transmission lines for SARS1 and H1N1 were identified in relatively short time. Shit, they were able to locate the probable index H1N1 case in Mexico back in 2009. There is one recent respiratory virus, however, that does not have a clear zoonotic epidemiological chain. It started in a city home to a chinese lab that had the world's largest field collection of previously undocumented coronaviruses from nature. In fact, that lab was collecting specimens from the sites in SE Asia where the most genetically similar viruses have be located. No epidemiological chain has been discovered that gets that virus from its most likely point of natural origin to Wuhan. There is one scenario that connects the dots of course. Probabilities are hard, I know. 

[Incredulity 11671]

33 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It feels like you are so very close to a breakthrough. Yes H1N1, MERS, and SARS1 all had fairly definitive epidemiological chains and intermediate hosts identified shortly after outbreak. For MERS they had serological data from camel herds, likewise the intermediate hosts and transmission lines for SARS1 and H1N1 were identified in relatively short time. Shit, they were able to locate the probable index H1N1 case in Mexico back in 2009. There is one recent respiratory virus, however, that does not have a clear zoonotic epidemiological chain. It started in a city home to a chinese lab that had the world's largest field collection of previously undocumented coronaviruses from nature. In fact, that lab was collecting specimens from the sites in SE Asia where the most genetically similar viruses have be located. No epidemiological chain has been discovered that gets that virus from its most likely point of natural origin to Wuhan. There is one scenario that connects the dots of course. Probabilities are hard, I know. 

Thats racist/ Surly Leftists 2021

[Gatorubet 30238]

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Thats racist/ Surly Leftists 2021

The point was, during the pandemic the regards wanted to focus on its origin instead of its cure and treatment. In an interesting combo, they also doubted the veracity of its lethality.

Also, Ani never fills in the blanks. Once we all become as smart as he is and agree that it’s not natural, what would Ani have us do with this epiphany? He never says…,

[Bevo 13577]

5 hours ago, Blotto said:

I've got 3 tons of paste in a storage unit off of burnet.

**partnership investment will require purchasing 10% share (minimum). Offer limited to the first 25 responders.

 

    

Edited July 16 by Bevo

[Deej 76791]

6 hours ago, Blotto said:

I've got 3 tons of paste in a storage unit off of burnet. Who wants in on my Ivermectin Soup Bucket startup?

**partnership investment will require purchasing 10% share (minimum). Offer limited to the first 25 responders.

Jim Baker needs a bucket of Just For Men. 

[Anastasis 23469]

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Also, Ani never fills in the blanks. Once we all become as smart as he is and agree that it’s not natural, what would Ani have us do with this epiphany? He never says…,

[Anastasis 23469]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

and agree that it’s not natural....what would Ani have us do with this epiphany? He never says…,

BTW, it is clear that you are incapable of paying attention. 

[Gatorubet 30238]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

BTW, it is clear that you are incapable of paying attention. 

As many times, as you say the same thing about the same issues, it’s remarkable you can’t repeat it one more time

[Anastasis 23469]

Just now, Gatorubet said:

As many times, as you say the same thing about the same issues, it’s remarkable you can’t repeat it one more time

Don't try to turn a you problem into a me problem, clown. If you needs the links I can provide them. 

[Gatorubet 30238]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Don't try to turn a you problem into a me problem, clown. If you needs the links I can provide them. 

I said “you”.  Not links to others.  But if you can’t articulate what we should do with the information without someone else’s links, feel free to post them.  I assume the link will answer the predicate question - what you would have us do with the information?

If not, just resume your online smarter-than-thou personality that pretty much everyone abhors.  How can I phrase that without being racist?  Oh, yeah.  You just keep on bearing your Mensa Man’s Burden.

[Anastasis 23469]

 

2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I said “you”.  Not links to others.

 

You really don't pay attention, do you? 

[F250 28775]

Shit is about to get real.

[BrickHorn 18234]

19 hours ago, Anastasis said:

It feels like you are so very close to a breakthrough. Yes H1N1, MERS, and SARS1 all had fairly definitive epidemiological chains and intermediate hosts identified shortly after outbreak. For MERS they had serological data from camel herds, likewise the intermediate hosts and transmission lines for SARS1 and H1N1 were identified in relatively short time. Shit, they were able to locate the probable index H1N1 case in Mexico back in 2009. There is one recent respiratory virus, however, that does not have a clear zoonotic epidemiological chain. It started in a city home to a chinese lab that had the world's largest field collection of previously undocumented coronaviruses from nature. In fact, that lab was collecting specimens from the sites in SE Asia where the most genetically similar viruses have be located. No epidemiological chain has been discovered that gets that virus from its most likely point of natural origin to Wuhan. There is one scenario that connects the dots of course. Probabilities are hard, I know. 

Again, you’re ignoring the instances where that was not the case. 40+ years into the AIDS pandemic, we still don’t know definitively in what species it originated or how it transmitted to humans. And the origins of the 2009 swine flu are still somewhat murky. Although a 2016 paper purported to resolve the issue in favor of Mexico, that was 7 years after the fact. So even if that group got it right, the definitive answer wasn’t remotely immediate. 

As usual, you’re cherry picking to create the illusion of a high probability in favor of your preferred (conspiracy) theory. But the actual probabilities are far more inconclusive. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25939]

I think with HIV it is pretty well known, but no one wants to admit to fucking a monkey.

[bolverk 29672]

Since the first known human case was discovered in a Texas dairy worker (likely up in the Panhandle), are we gonna start calling this the Texas Virus? Or Howdy Flu, Y'all? The Panhandle Pandemic? The Cowboy Crud?

We need something catchy here, guys.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21907]

The red state runs

[Anastasis 23469]

47 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think with HIV it is pretty well known, but no one wants to admit to fucking a monkey.

Before you even have to go there wrt challenges in tracing of an STD, the manifestation of AIDS only after prolonged asymptomatic HIV infection (~10 years) poses its own set of challenges. It's a stupid comparison in this exchange. Like the red ball analogy he has used previously. We have a virus that results in an acute respiratory infection. The closest known relatives in nature live in caves in SE asia. The most likely reservoirs range doesn't overlap Wuhan. We don't have an intermediate host identified. We don't have a chain of exposures to follow from the likely source in nature to Wuhan. But we do know that the lab in Wuhan was collecting samples from bats precisely from these locations in SE asia. We know that laboratory accidents occur frequently (there has been multiple cases of SARS release from labs- Singapore, Taiwan, Beijing). But yeah, let's talk about HIV and bark out "cOnSpiRaCY tHeoRy" over and over again. 

Look nothing is 100% here. But lab origin is like 80-90% at this point. If the evidence dictates, I will recalibrate. 

[Rip76 4928]

32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Before you even have to go there wrt challenges in tracing of an STD, the manifestation of AIDS only after prolonged asymptomatic HIV infection (~10 years) poses its own set of challenges. It's a stupid comparison in this exchange. Like the red ball analogy he has used previously. We have a virus that results in an acute respiratory infection. The closest known relatives in nature live in caves in SE asia. The most likely reservoirs range doesn't overlap Wuhan. We don't have an intermediate host identified. We don't have a chain of exposures to follow from the likely source in nature to Wuhan. But we do know that the lab in Wuhan was collecting samples from bats precisely from these locations in SE asia. We know that laboratory accidents occur frequently (there has been multiple cases of SARS release from labs- Singapore, Taiwan, Beijing). But yeah, let's talk about HIV and bark out "cOnSpiRaCY tHeoRy" over and over again. 

Look nothing is 100% here. But lab origin is like 80-90% at this point. If the evidence dictates, I will recalibrate. 

So going forward, about roughly every 4 years, should we be looking for a "lab origin," issue?

 

[Brisketexan 105139]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think with HIV it is pretty well known, but no one wants to admit to fucking a monkey.

Admit.  Brag.  Let's not quibble here, aggy is our little brother and we shouldn't embarrass him any more than necessary.

[InkaUtexas 25939]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Before you even have to go there wrt challenges in tracing of an STD, the manifestation of AIDS only after prolonged asymptomatic HIV infection (~10 years) poses its own set of challenges. It's a stupid comparison in this exchange. Like the red ball analogy he has used previously. We have a virus that results in an acute respiratory infection. The closest known relatives in nature live in caves in SE asia. The most likely reservoirs range doesn't overlap Wuhan. We don't have an intermediate host identified. We don't have a chain of exposures to follow from the likely source in nature to Wuhan. But we do know that the lab in Wuhan was collecting samples from bats precisely from these locations in SE asia. We know that laboratory accidents occur frequently (there has been multiple cases of SARS release from labs- Singapore, Taiwan, Beijing). But yeah, let's talk about HIV and bark out "cOnSpiRaCY tHeoRy" over and over again. 

Look nothing is 100% here. But lab origin is like 80-90% at this point. If the evidence dictates, I will recalibrate. 

Um, I did not bring up HIV/AIDs. You do know what site you are on right? We make jokes around here.

[Bozo_Casanova 26460]

The crazy thing is that HIV was probably spilled over around 1920, when somebody cut themselves while butchering a sick ape, and the disease remained confined to low levels  in Central Africa for 40 years, then Haiti and the carribean for another 10, and then made it to the US at JUST the right place and the right time and kaboom!

 

[atomheartbevo 89667]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Since the first known human case was discovered in a Texas dairy worker (likely up in the Panhandle), are we gonna start calling this the Texas Virus? Or Howdy Flu, Y'all? The Panhandle Pandemic? The Cowboy Crud?

We need something catchy here, guys.

The Cow Fucker’s Flu (CFF or the cowfuk).

”Dang man, did you hear ole Ernie came down with the cowfuk, they aren’t sure if he’ll make it or not.”

 

[bolverk 29672]

24 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The crazy thing is that HIV was probably spilled over around 1920, when somebody cut themselves while butchering a sick ape, and the disease remained confined to low levels  in Central Africa for 40 years, then Haiti and the carribean for another 10, and then made it to the US at JUST the right place and the right time and kaboom!

Yep. Just like the bird flu shit...well, not *just* like it.

The CDC knows it's been circulating among birds and livestock forever two years now, and they're monitoring it and giving out updates and cautious warnings. But that's only because this is the US, where they have the means to do so.

They've got an extensive network with a history of good cooperation from local farmers all the way up to state ag agencies. We could very well be on the cusp of that "KABOOM!" moment with easy human-to-human transmission.

Fortunately, the CDC is pretty well prepared because of all that monitoring (e.g., the first known case was because a dairy worker got fucking pink eye; all the others have also been minor), and I read they already have vaccines in the works. I'm hopeful this will be a relatively minor bump in the road.

*****

Central African nations obviously don't have anything like what we have in terms of monitoring, communicating dangers, testing, etc. And I highly doubt China does either, so Covid could've been making people kinda/sorta sick for a while in rural China (not enough to notice), and along comes one small evolutionary step at the right time/right place and then KABOOM! It could've also been the result of a leak in some lab.

I don't know. I'm not qualified to say either way, and I wasn't there when it happened. So, I'm stuck with having to defer what "experts" say. Right now, the consensus remains that it emerged naturally (if that's the correct term), but I certainly acknowledge that quite a few "experts" also argue the lab leak theory.

The only point I can argue is that, hopefully, the global scientific community learned something and will, hopefully, make at least some incremental improvements in 1) monitoring/communicating if it was naturally occurring AND 2) being much more fucking careful in the lab. Do BOTH.

[nineliveslost 2760]

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Before you even have to go there wrt challenges in tracing of an STD, the manifestation of AIDS only after prolonged asymptomatic HIV infection (~10 years) poses its own set of challenges. It's a stupid comparison in this exchange. Like the red ball analogy he has used previously. We have a virus that results in an acute respiratory infection. The closest known relatives in nature live in caves in SE asia. The most likely reservoirs range doesn't overlap Wuhan. We don't have an intermediate host identified. We don't have a chain of exposures to follow from the likely source in nature to Wuhan. But we do know that the lab in Wuhan was collecting samples from bats precisely from these locations in SE asia. We know that laboratory accidents occur frequently (there has been multiple cases of SARS release from labs- Singapore, Taiwan, Beijing). But yeah, let's talk about HIV and bark out "cOnSpiRaCY tHeoRy" over and over again. 

Look nothing is 100% here. But lab origin is like 80-90% at this point. If the evidence dictates, I will recalibrate. 

Is this honestly even debatable now?

Ok, 99% likely

My question was always, What are we going to do about it?  We are impotent and the Chinese government knows it.

[Incredulity 11671]

1 hour ago, nineliveslost said:

What are we going to do about it?

Acknowledge the reality and work like hell to try to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

[nineliveslost 2760]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

Acknowledge the reality and work like hell to try to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

There is nothing we can do about other countries doing goofy shit. We can't hold them accountable that's why the Chinese gov doesn't give a fuck

[Incredulity 11671]

3 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

There is nothing we can do about other countries doing goofy shit. We can't hold them accountable that's why the Chinese gov doesn't give a fuck

Sure there is.  We distribute/broadly control much of the technology and information to do this kind research.

[nineliveslost 2760]

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Sure there is.  We distribute/broadly control much of the technology and information to do this kind research.

yea, it has sure worked in the past

 

but I am off topic. back to the bird flu

Edited July 18 by nineliveslost

[Anastasis 23469]

18 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

There is nothing we can do about other countries doing goofy shit. We can't hold them accountable that's why the Chinese gov doesn't give a fuck

Crazy idea. We could maybe not fund their labs with our taxpayer dollars. 

 

[Anastasis 23469]

14 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

back to the bird flu

Time is a flat circle. 

[Anastasis 23469]

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Um, I did not bring up HIV/AIDs.

I know. 

[F250 28775]

 

[Gatorubet 30238]

Narrator: and  the vaccine nano bots taking over his brain forced him not to post the promised links…