2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Zonahorn 8079]

Thread title is indeed appropriate: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

In adddition models are showing something in the Gulf. 

GFS:

Euro: 

Would appreciate if @immamac or one of the bobs could sticky the thread. It is going be a long year.

Edited June 6 by Zonahorn

[immamac 42832]

no need to sticky yet, we will sticky during storms. 

[SydneyCarton 48051]

There was one going around not long ago of the water temperature right now versus what the water temperature was at this time in 2005, which spawned Katrina. It was...starkly terrifying. I'm sure many who frequent these threads saw it. 

My biggest concern, outside the obvious, is that the anomoly we saw last season where  a storm formed in the south gulf and in a couple days made landfall in Texas as a cat 3 is going to become relatively normal. Normally, as a Houstonian, Florida and Louisianna end up attracting most of the attention from the Atlantic. Storms that thread the needle and hit Houston head on just don't happen all that often. But with this new development, based on such higher water temperatures, I fear that the Texas coast is going to be ripe for much, much more activitiy every season. 

We're working on getting a generator installed, but City of Houston permits are a weeks or month(s) long process, and there's a large backlog after the derecho so...Im definitely puckered. 

[Mother mopar 3318]

Got estimates for hurricane "proof" windows" or dade country windows.as some folks call them and damn they are pricey. At least the supply chain backlog is reasonable now.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Messy CAG setup coming for the gulf next week. With an eastern lobe moving into Florida, and a western lobe moving into the Texas coastline. Euro and Icon show a TS coming out of the Eastern lobe into Florida, while the GFS is back and forth on which one will develop. The CMC is currently favoring the western lobe. We will likely get our first storm in the Gulf next week. Y'all should keep an eye on it.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Not an ensemble spread you would expect or want to see in June

 

[Updawg 2266]

Prepare your anus Houston/ east Texas / Louisiana

[troph 24781]

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

[boknowstecmo 216]

8 minutes ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

That weather model thinks a tropical is low is likely to form in one or two places that are far from Port Aransas, and that there could be a storm hitting the Texas coast. Or Louisiana. Or Bama. Or Florida. Or Cuba. Or Mexico. Or Canada, I think? Basically, it doesn't tell you much. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 hour ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

Ignore everything except for the Gulf, the lines are ensemble members of the GFS forecasting model. Each line is a different model. They show the central pressure of a tropical storm and its path. They show a probability of a storm forming in the Gulf. The exact path or pressure isn't important right now, just that models show a storm forming in the Gulf and moving north. If you've ever seen the spaghetti models, that is what that picture is.

Edited June 8 by Zonahorn

[Stinkpalm 687]

1 hour ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

No worries, Troph. I’m scheduled to be fly fishing for tarpon in PR that same day, so that’s where it’ll end up hitting

[Zonahorn 8079]

There is a hefty uptick for a Gulf storm on the Euro and GFS on the latest model run.

[HOOKEM4 5036]

I am way to stupid to understand all that shit. Looks like a 2 year old got a hold of a marker and a map.

[Zonahorn 8079]

31 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

I am way to stupid to understand all that shit. Looks like a 2 year old got a hold of a marker and a map.

Many individual models forecast a potential storm's location, path, and central pressure. There are 21 for the GFS and 51 for the EPS. The important part is how many members are showing a tropical storm. A lot of them like that means a lot of models are showing a tropical storm. 

 

EDIT: Are y'all getting this? I hope I'm doing a decent job of explaining

Edited June 8 by Zonahorn

[Mother mopar 3318]

Many individual models forecast a potential storm's location, path, and central pressure. There are 21 for the GFS and 51 for the EPS. The important part is how many members are showing a tropical storm. A lot of them like that means a lot of models are showing a tropical storm. 
 
EDIT: Are y'all getting this? I hope I'm doing a decent job of explaining

Appreciate it, question...what's the red line in picture 1? TD or TS I assume.

[Zonahorn 8079]

32 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

Appreciate it, question...what's the red line in picture 1? TD or TS I assume.

That is an intense hurricane. That could be a category 2 or 3. The blue is Category 1, and the green is TD/TS. The environment looks abnormally favorable for June.

[troph 24781]

@Zonahorn I’m getting it, kinda thought that was it - my momma said I had smarts when I was little - anyway, what’s the date range on that model / forecast?

edit - June 8-23

Edited June 8 by troph

[troph 24781]

5 hours ago, Stinkpalm said:

No worries, Troph. I’m scheduled to be fly fishing for tarpon in PR that same day, so that’s where it’ll end up hitting

I fished with a guide last month that guides PR tarpon season, jealous. Good luck! 

[Zonahorn 8079]

24 minutes ago, troph said:

@Zonahorn I’m getting it, kinda thought that was it - my momma said I had smarts when I was little - anyway, what’s the date range on that model / forecast?

The models go out until June 23rd. The operational model runs have the storm forming late next week around the 13th

[MontereyMX 869]

7 hours ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

not if your running.  lololol

[NAVY 6740]

Hummm. Glad we’re leaving Tulúm today.

[troph 24781]

Just now, Zonahorn said:

The models go out until June 23rd. The operational model runs have the storm forming late next week around the 13th

Found the date range, June 13 is enough time to at least plan. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

35 minutes ago, troph said:

Found the date range, June 13 is enough time to at least plan. 

Glad I could help.

Edited June 8 by Zonahorn

[troph 24781]

 

9 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Glad I could help.

I appreciate it. World is turbo fucked I didn’t mean to sound like I was callous and just cared about my fishing, this stuff actually tears me up pretty good.

[Bevo&Pevo 5120]

When Levi Cowan calls for a storm in the GOM, I'll listen.

[Zonahorn 8079]

27 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

When Levi Cowan calls for a storm in the GOM, I'll listen.

Viva Levi

[dieucla98 2942]

5 hours ago, HOOKEM4 said:

I am way to stupid to understand all that shit. Looks like a 2 year old got a hold of a marker and a map.

A little CR but couldn't resist.

[General Specific 3250]

No worries, Troph. I’m scheduled to be fly fishing for tarpon in PR that same day, so that’s where it’ll end up hitting

Jim Cantore sock account found!

Mikes weather page is a good thing to check daily

https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm

[UTexasFight 9427]

10 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

The models go out until June 23rd. The operational model runs have the storm forming late next week around the 13th

June 13th?!

season opener was June 1. What took you so long, Alberto?

[UTexasFight 9427]

how far do you think we get this year?

2024

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

 

 

 

 

 

I’m gonna go epsilon (in December)

Edited June 8 by UTexasFight

[Zonahorn 8079]

28 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

how far do you think we get this year?

2024

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

 

 

 

 

 

I’m gonna go epsilon (in December)

22 NS 10 H 5 MH

[UTexasFight 9427]

3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

22 NS 10 H 5 MH

I fear September they are going to be lining up likes cars waiting for gas during the 70’s oil embargo 

[miguelito 11250]

Coming soon to a theater near you:

Milton, Category 5.  "You took my stapler. I'll take your beach house."

[MissingInAction 25002]

20 hours ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

Ask @justhookit

That's his territory and quite the fisherman.

[troph 24781]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Ask @justhookit

That's his territory and quite the fisherman.

He’s Costa Rica mostly now.  

[babysdaddy 2719]

how far do you think we get this year?
2024
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
 
 


 
 
 
I’m gonna go epsilon (in December)

Francine or Nadine gonna be a mfer

[UTexasFight 9427]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Francine or Nadine gonna be a mfer

lol.

i just read them to my gf and she said: “oohhh, Francine gonna be a bitch.”

 

 

I’ll also say, I wouldn’t fuck with Debby.

[HOOKEM4 5036]

Patty enters the chat. God help us all.

[bolverk 29644]

I bet Oscar's gonna be a real grouch.

[troph 24781]

37 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

lol.

i just read them to my gf and she said: “oohhh, Francine gonna be a bitch.”

 

 

I’ll also say, I wouldn’t fuck with Debby.

Debbie’s gonna be a downer hate to break it to you.

[InkaUtexas 25852]

if it fucks up UT will be Kirk.

[austingirl 2191]

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I bet Oscar's gonna be a real grouch.

I laughed

[tx 3 putt 76859]

Buckle up ….

 

[miguelito 11250]

[Pato del Muerto 52484]

1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

lol.

i just read them to my gf and she said: “oohhh, Francine gonna be a bitch.”

 

 

I’ll also say, I wouldn’t fuck with Debby.

Debby is going to have to hit Texas. 

[MissingInAction 25002]

Has there ever been a hurricane Tiffany? If so how many millions died?

[atomheartbevo 89618]

Don’t count Milton out

[Stinkpalm 687]

18 hours ago, troph said:

I fished with a guide last month that guides PR tarpon season, jealous. Good luck! 

I’m really looking forward to this one. Tarpon on the fly has been near the top (if not the top) of my fishing bucket list since picking up fly fishing 20 years ago. Bones and GT round out the top three, but they’ll have to wait. Will update the fishing thread if it pans out.

[Stinkpalm 687]

9 hours ago, General Specific said:

Jim Cantore sock account found!

Mikes weather page is a good thing to check daily

https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm

Ha! I’d imagine Jim Cantore would be smart enough to not book trips to Costa Rica and Puerto Rico in back to back years, in apparently their rainy seasons. Worked out last year, minimal rain and landed some nice sailfin and roosters, but the forecast isn’t looking so good this year!

[WhatTheBuck 28771]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Debby is going to have to hit Texas. 

Dallas is fucked.