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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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Posted (edited)

Thread title is indeed appropriate: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

image.thumb.jpeg.1ba16b820b2d219e611002f33389a1b2.jpeg

In adddition models are showing something in the Gulf. 

GFS:image.thumb.png.6744e469c7ebb8ca6a41e4f8e0811428.png

Euro: image.png.31ed5e858c7dc3e5d33225e747c60a6e.png

Would appreciate if @immamac or one of the bobs could sticky the thread. It is going be a long year.

Edited by Zonahorn
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There was one going around not long ago of the water temperature right now versus what the water temperature was at this time in 2005, which spawned Katrina. It was...starkly terrifying. I'm sure many who frequent these threads saw it. 

My biggest concern, outside the obvious, is that the anomoly we saw last season where  a storm formed in the south gulf and in a couple days made landfall in Texas as a cat 3 is going to become relatively normal. Normally, as a Houstonian, Florida and Louisianna end up attracting most of the attention from the Atlantic. Storms that thread the needle and hit Houston head on just don't happen all that often. But with this new development, based on such higher water temperatures, I fear that the Texas coast is going to be ripe for much, much more activitiy every season. 

We're working on getting a generator installed, but City of Houston permits are a weeks or month(s) long process, and there's a large backlog after the derecho so...Im definitely puckered. 

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Messy CAG setup coming for the gulf next week. With an eastern lobe moving into Florida, and a western lobe moving into the Texas coastline. Euro and Icon show a TS coming out of the Eastern lobe into Florida, while the GFS is back and forth on which one will develop. The CMC is currently favoring the western lobe. We will likely get our first storm in the Gulf next week. Y'all should keep an eye on it.

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8 minutes ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

That weather model thinks a tropical is low is likely to form in one or two places that are far from Port Aransas, and that there could be a storm hitting the Texas coast. Or Louisiana. Or Bama. Or Florida. Or Cuba. Or Mexico. Or Canada, I think? Basically, it doesn't tell you much. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

Ignore everything except for the Gulf, the lines are ensemble members of the GFS forecasting model. Each line is a different model. They show the central pressure of a tropical storm and its path. They show a probability of a storm forming in the Gulf. The exact path or pressure isn't important right now, just that models show a storm forming in the Gulf and moving north. If you've ever seen the spaghetti models, that is what that picture is.

Edited by Zonahorn
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1 hour ago, troph said:

What does that chart show? I’m fishing out of port A (bay side) on June 21. Am I fucked?

No worries, Troph. I’m scheduled to be fly fishing for tarpon in PR that same day, so that’s where it’ll end up hitting

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

I am way to stupid to understand all that shit. Looks like a 2 year old got a hold of a marker and a map.

Many individual models forecast a potential storm's location, path, and central pressure. There are 21 for the GFS and 51 for the EPS. The important part is how many members are showing a tropical storm. A lot of them like that means a lot of models are showing a tropical storm. 

 

EDIT: Are y'all getting this? I hope I'm doing a decent job of explaining

Edited by Zonahorn
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Many individual models forecast a potential storm's location, path, and central pressure. There are 21 for the GFS and 51 for the EPS. The important part is how many members are showing a tropical storm. A lot of them like that means a lot of models are showing a tropical storm. 
 
EDIT: Are y'all getting this? I hope I'm doing a decent job of explaining
Appreciate it, question...what's the red line in picture 1? TD or TS I assume.
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32 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

Appreciate it, question...what's the red line in picture 1? TD or TS I assume.

That is an intense hurricane. That could be a category 2 or 3. The blue is Category 1, and the green is TD/TS. The environment looks abnormally favorable for June.

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Posted (edited)

@Zonahorn I’m getting it, kinda thought that was it - my momma said I had smarts when I was little - anyway, what’s the date range on that model / forecast?

edit - June 8-23

Edited by troph
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5 hours ago, Stinkpalm said:

No worries, Troph. I’m scheduled to be fly fishing for tarpon in PR that same day, so that’s where it’ll end up hitting

I fished with a guide last month that guides PR tarpon season, jealous. Good luck! 

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24 minutes ago, troph said:

@Zonahorn I’m getting it, kinda thought that was it - my momma said I had smarts when I was little - anyway, what’s the date range on that model / forecast?

The models go out until June 23rd. The operational model runs have the storm forming late next week around the 13th

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Just now, Zonahorn said:

The models go out until June 23rd. The operational model runs have the storm forming late next week around the 13th

Found the date range, June 13 is enough time to at least plan. 

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9 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Glad I could help.

I appreciate it. World is turbo fucked I didn’t mean to sound like I was callous and just cared about my fishing, this stuff actually tears me up pretty good.

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10 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

The models go out until June 23rd. The operational model runs have the storm forming late next week around the 13th

June 13th?!

season opener was June 1. What took you so long, Alberto?

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Posted (edited)

how far do you think we get this year?

2024

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

 

 



 

 

 

I’m gonna go epsilon (in December)

Edited by UTexasFight
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28 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

how far do you think we get this year?

2024

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

 

 



 

 

 

I’m gonna go epsilon (in December)

22 NS 10 H 5 MH

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how far do you think we get this year?
2024
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
 
 


 
 
 
I’m gonna go epsilon (in December)

Francine or Nadine gonna be a mfer
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37 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

lol.

i just read them to my gf and she said: “oohhh, Francine gonna be a bitch.”

 

 

I’ll also say, I wouldn’t fuck with Debby.

Debbie’s gonna be a downer hate to break it to you.

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18 hours ago, troph said:

I fished with a guide last month that guides PR tarpon season, jealous. Good luck! 

I’m really looking forward to this one. Tarpon on the fly has been near the top (if not the top) of my fishing bucket list since picking up fly fishing 20 years ago. Bones and GT round out the top three, but they’ll have to wait. Will update the fishing thread if it pans out.

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9 hours ago, General Specific said:


Jim Cantore sock account found!

Mikes weather page is a good thing to check daily

https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm

Ha! I’d imagine Jim Cantore would be smart enough to not book trips to Costa Rica and Puerto Rico in back to back years, in apparently their rainy seasons. Worked out last year, minimal rain and landed some nice sailfin and roosters, but the forecast isn’t looking so good this year!

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