2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Hate 20108]

Those people are either really dumb or wanted a new car.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

Those people are either really dumb or wanted a new car.

Airbnbers apparently.  

[Js1 85338]

5 minutes ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

Airbnbers apparently.  

lol thought that said airbenders and was so confused

[atomheartbevo 89668]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

lol thought that said airbenders and was so confused

He could bend the air like nobody’s business, but when it came to sand and mud….

[Bevo 13577]

 

It has been awhile since I've played in the sand, but aren't you suppose to get out of the car before your friends bury you up to your neck?

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Guadaloopy 10971]

19 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

"Beryl."  How embarrassing it will be to have your home destroyed by that bitch your meemaw hates because she won first place at the county fair jam and jelly competition with the recipe for mustang grape jelly she stole from meemaw's kitchen.

Not that meemaw's still bitter or anything.

I had a Mimi, not a meemaw, but damn could she cook some jelly - muscadine, faux strawberry fig, you name it.  Thanks for the warm memories on a Friday morning - and please pass the biscuits.

[pearlandhorn 3269]

19 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

"Meemaw" would be a good name. Everyone in the south would understand when you said that Meemaw fucked you up royal.

Meemaw is my mom's name for my son lol

[Herbie Hancock 7348]

Your mom calls your son meemaw? Odd

[pearlandhorn 3269]

7 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

Your mom calls your son meemaw? Odd

Well shit.

[Js1 85338]

6 hours ago, Herbie Hancock said:

Your mom calls your son meemaw? Odd

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[tx 3 putt 76958]

[Zonahorn 8079]

22 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Intensity guidance is on board with that actually developing

SHIPs is especially notable, because it is the most reliable and used by the NHC for judging the environment. If this doesn’t get buried in Central America, conditions are favorable for a storm to form.

[Zonahorn 8079]

The other big deal is the wave in the MDR forecast to develop. ENS suites from GFS and Euro are bullish and global models are showing development. The 12Z operational Euro run was Dennis/Emily level insanity. I’ll post the run when I get the chance.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Hurricane Emily 2024 edition

Edited June 26 by Zonahorn

[tx 3 putt 76958]

From Houston weather man …..

Okay, let me jump out ahead of the images that are likely to go viral showing a hurricane slamming into Texas around July 9th.

Here's what we know: A tropical wave that recently departed Africa is now given a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days as it tracks westward through the Atlantic. We also know that despite the Saharan dust to the north of this wave, our computer guidance is highly bullish that this system eventually spins up into the season's first hurricane either as it approaches the Caribbean or once it gets into the Caribbean Sea. Why? The circulation around the wave can still fend off the dust to its north while drawing fresh tropical moisture from the south, and it will do so while moving over warm water in a low wind shear environment.

Long-timers know that any Caribbean cruiser needs to be watched for possible impacts along the Gulf Coast down the road, but the road to the Gulf of Mexico is littered with uncertainty at this time. It's just too early to know whether or not there will ever be any impacts to Texas.

Like I said last night, we have a lot of time to figure out where this will go and what it will do, so let's just all stay aware of what's happening for now. After all, it is hurricane season, and please think before you share any posts circulating around (including mine!).

We'll still watch the wave out ahead of it, too, for any minor impacts to Texas that could start this weekend.

For a reliable overview of what's happening in the tropics from a source you can trust, you can always head to our Daily Tropical Weather Update page: abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

Edited June 26 by Zonahorn

[Brisketexan 105140]

10 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Pssssh....2005, how bad could it have been?

 

 

 

Oh.

[Bevo 13577]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Pssssh....2005, how bad could it have been?

 

 

 

Oh.

 

It never rains here. Have you been out to the lake lately?

[Newdoc 3440]

This is when the weather nerds get Viagra’d off the long range models and start wish casting. Lot of variables in play still.

Throwing out panic too soon and having that be a false warning is going to make people numb when the real deal actually threatens the coast.

[atomheartbevo 89668]

26 minutes ago, Bevo said:

It never rains here. Have you been out to the lake lately?

It’s only 58% down.

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

Edited June 26 by atomheartbevo

[Zonahorn 8079]

8 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

This is when the weather nerds get Viagra’d off the long range models and start wish casting. Lot of variables in play still.

Throwing out panic too soon and having that be a false warning is going to make people numb when the real deal actually threatens the coast.

That Euro run is a marvel of insanity, hopefully I didn’t come off as wishcasting. A storm is very likely to form in the MDR, and getting a storm in June/July in the MDR is always a bad sign

[Bevo 13577]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s only 58% down.

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

It looked terrible this past weekend - I could barely enjoy my margarita - plus they used crappy tequila. And it was damn hot. I don't know how all the fatties made it back up the hill from the party boat docks.

[Newdoc 3440]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

That Euro run is a marvel of insanity, hopefully I didn’t come off as wishcasting. A storm is very likely to form in the MDR, and getting a storm in June/July in the MDR is always a bad sign

Nobody on here usually gets too amped. I’m talking storm2k type peeps that bleeds into the YouTubers. Then it gets spread by every Karen on FB.

[Brisketexan 105140]

Just now, Newdoc said:

Nobody on here usually gets too amped. I’m talking storm2k type peeps that bleeds into the YouTubers. Then it gets spread by every Karen on FB.

It's ok.  Our society has only two types of reactions to such things: 1) people who will rush out tomorrow to buy 4,000 rolls of TP, 10 flats of bottled water, and 400 cans of tuna, shoving people out of the way at the store, because a forecast said maybe there will be a hurricane somewhere, someday, and 2) those who will call the forecast a "hoax" even as their house is being bashed to kindling around them, then bitch about why the government didn't come rescue them while the wind was still blowing at 145 mph.  And pretty much nobody in between.

[dieucla98 2942]

2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

Nobody on here usually gets too amped. I’m talking storm2k type peeps that bleeds into the YouTubers. Then it gets spread by every Karen on FB.

Storm2k during a potential mega storm buildup is like surly during a coaching search. It's just people losing their minds, making up all kinds of stupid shit, grasping at whatever single data point validates their theory... It's fucking great.

We have curtains and they have a blue dumpster. That's the only difference.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10235]

Don't like this info from the European model... next couple days will be interesting... it's got a Harvey-esce track right now... no bueno

[Updawg 2266]

I’ve learned to trust the euro model. But I’m going on vacation in a few days and I live in Austin so I don’t give a shit. MIL in Houston won’t evacuate no matter what anyways

I’ve learned to trust the euro model. But I’m going on vacation in a few days and I live in Austin so I don’t give a shit. MIL in Houston won’t evacuate no matter what anyways

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It's ok.  Our society has only two types of reactions to such things: 1) people who will rush out tomorrow to buy 4,000 rolls of TP, 10 flats of bottled water, and 400 cans of tuna, shoving people out of the way at the store, because a forecast said maybe there will be a hurricane somewhere, someday, and 2) those who will call the forecast a "hoax" even as their house is being bashed to kindling around them, then bitch about why the government didn't come rescue them while the wind was still blowing at 145 mph.  And pretty much nobody in between.

Dude, stop with the nobody in between stuff.  I have 400 cans of tuna, 570 packages of saltine crackers, and a case of Crystal hot sauce, well that there is heaven.   I might need some the of the proffered TP.  But that’s beside the point.

Edited June 27 by Judge Roybeanbag

[Bevo 13577]

18 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Dude, stop with the nobody in between stuff.  I have 400 cans of tuna, 570 packages of saltine crackers, and a case of Crystal hot sauce, well that there is heaven.   I might need some the of the proffered TP.  But that’s beside the point.

I thought every surly household had a bidet.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

Just now, Bevo said:

I thought every surly household had a bidet.

This is the city of Austin.  No water for a bidet.  I wipe with spandex. 

[Bevo 13577]

1 minute ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

This is the city of Austin.  No water for a bidet.  I wipe with spandex. 

 

Damn, that could be dangerous if it stretches and slingshots across the room.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

Just now, Bevo said:

 

Damn, that could be dangerous if it stretches and slingshots across the room.

@Scheiss Meisterdidnt get his username, and lose one eye for nothing, man.  

[UTexasFight 9450]

 

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

From Houston weather man …..

Okay, let me jump out ahead of the images that are likely to go viral showing a hurricane slamming into Texas around July 9th.

Here's what we know: A tropical wave that recently departed Africa is now given a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days as it tracks westward through the Atlantic. We also know that despite the Saharan dust to the north of this wave, our computer guidance is highly bullish that this system eventually spins up into the season's first hurricane either as it approaches the Caribbean or once it gets into the Caribbean Sea. Why? The circulation around the wave can still fend off the dust to its north while drawing fresh tropical moisture from the south, and it will do so while moving over warm water in a low wind shear environment.

Long-timers know that any Caribbean cruiser needs to be watched for possible impacts along the Gulf Coast down the road, but the road to the Gulf of Mexico is littered with uncertainty at this time. It's just too early to know whether or not there will ever be any impacts to Texas.

Like I said last night, we have a lot of time to figure out where this will go and what it will do, so let's just all stay aware of what's happening for now. After all, it is hurricane season, and please think before you share any posts circulating around (including mine!).

We'll still watch the wave out ahead of it, too, for any minor impacts to Texas that could start this weekend.

For a reliable overview of what's happening in the tropics from a source you can trust, you can always head to our Daily Tropical Weather Update page: abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

 

The circulation around the wave can still fend off the dust to its north while drawing fresh tropical moisture from the south, and it will do so while moving over warm water in a low wind shear environment.
 

 

this fucker is more prepared than the Wehrmacht marching across France in 1940

[Rip76 4928]

[dieucla98 2942]

If this forms into a hurricane before arriving at the Lesser Antilles (which is looking more and more expected), it will be the earliest hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles since 1933. Apparently, 1933 was a bad year too.

Edited June 27 by dieucla98
Hurricane, not named storm.

[Gatorubet 30238]

18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s only 58% down.

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

Some of us prefer to see that as 42% full!

Edited June 27 by Gatorubet

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[tx 3 putt 76958]

INVEST 95L UPDATE: Things are about to get interesting y’all. Like I was saying yesterday, the NHC has officially given our tropical wave #2 an invest tag as it has an 80% chance of forming into a tropical storm or greater. Here are the latest spaghetti models showing the track it might take… Also included are intensity predictions derived from computer ensembles. Notice how some future tracks head into the Gulf by next weekend…👀 Also notice how computers suggest this will be not only the first hurricane of the season, but potentially a major hurricane.🌀 Me and the other meteorologists at 25 News Now will have a close watchful eye on this system as it approaches late next week.
 

 

[Bevo 13577]

 

black lines matter

Edited June 28 by Bevo

[jdhorn92 1549]

On 6/26/2024 at 1:09 PM, Zonahorn said:

The other big deal is the wave in the MDR forecast to develop. ENS suites from GFS and Euro are bullish and global models are showing development. The 12Z operational Euro run was Dennis/Emily level insanity. I’ll post the run when I get the chance.

MDR?  Que es?

[GreenspointTexas 9602]

Too far out yet to make any real conclusions

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 hour ago, jdhorn92 said:

MDR?  Que es?

Main Development Region. It is the tropical part of the Atlantic where most tropical storms form. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[NorthLoop 14204]

that looks promising

[Brisketexan 105140]

that looks promising

For needing to prepare your anus?

[tx 3 putt 76958]

[NorthLoop 14204]

touching swords

[jimmyjazz 45955]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

For needing to prepare your anus?

@NowThis