2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Neonmoon 38129]

What about this little guy?

[Js1 85286]

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

What about this little guy?

Don’t shame. It’s about how he uses it, not the size 

[Hate 20106]

29 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

What about this little guy?

It only has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

3 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Too far out yet to make any real conclusions

It’s Surly…

[jdhorn92 1545]

3 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

Main Development Region. It is the tropical part of the Atlantic where most tropical storms form. 

thank you

[Orange&White 5522]

Now TD2

[tx 3 putt 76873]

13 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Now TD2

NEW: Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the central Atlantic, and it is predicted to be a category 2 hurricane as it impacts the Lesser Antilles on Monday. If this verifies, it will be unprecedented to see a hurricane this strong impacting the islands so early in the season. If you have a vacation planned to the Caribbean next week, please pay close attention to the forecast in the days ahead.

There is no way to tell right now with any certainty if this will ever impact the Gulf of Mexico, much less Texas, but IF it were to impact Texas, it would likely be sometime in the July 7th - July 9th window.

As best as I can tell, the stronger the storm is over the central Caribbean, the more likely it is to head northwest for the Gulf of Mexico. A weaker storm will head westward toward Central America. A huge wildcard is any direct interaction it may have with Caribbean islands. So I'm not losing any sleep over it right now, but I am keeping an eye on it for you.

We'll keep you posted. abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

[SquishMitten 10403]

I'm no expert, but I can count lines. Assuming each noodle has the same odds as any other, the likelihood it hits Texas seems to be pretty low. 

[MissingInAction 25013]

I feel like Puerto Rico was created to absorb hurricanes.

[dieucla98 2942]

5 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I'm no expert, but I can count lines. Assuming each noodle has the same odds as any other, the likelihood it hits Texas seems to be pretty low. 

Way too early to know. The amount of things each of those lines takes into account is insane - these runs take hours to do on some of the most powerful servers we have. And the slightest wiggle in any of those inputs that wasn't predicted correctly can wildly change the final output. 

Edited June 28 by dieucla98

[dieucla98 2942]

From NHC, pretty damn aggressive for them:

[Brisketexan 105075]

4 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Way too early to know. The amount of things each of those lines takes into account is insane - these runs take hours to do on some of the most powerful servers we have. And the slightest wiggle in any of those inputs that wasn't predicted correctly can wildly change the final output. 

something something, your mom's cone of uncertainty.

[dcbc 14465]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

something something, your mom's cone of uncertainty.

uncertainty?

[Rip76 4925]

19 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

From NHC, pretty damn aggressive for them:

Yes it is.

[dieucla98 2942]

I fucking love these gifs as the sun is setting. TD2 on right, just entering darkness. 

 

[Sal 1088]

Have some friends vacationing in SXM/Anguilla/St. Barts. Should they be worried?

[Handcruser 2805]

Have some friends vacationing in SXM/Anguilla/St. Barts. Should they be worried?

Not if they like hurricanes.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

I feel like Puerto Rico was created to absorb hurricanes.

Puerto Rico: the quicker picker-upper.

[Blotto 23490]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Puerto Rico: the quicker picker-upper.

Obligatory

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[jimmyjazz 45890]

Debbie Does Destin?

[tx 3 putt 76873]

[dcbc 14465]

19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Debbie Does Destin?

Debbie Does Tropical Depression.

[tx 3 putt 76873]

Edited June 29 by tx 3 putt

[Sal 1088]

2 hours ago, Handcruser said:

Not if they like hurricanes.

So funny, never heard that one before

[tx 3 putt 76873]

This is going to be a monster 

Breaking: Tropical Storm Beryl has formed in the Atlantic and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days.

[CoTex 1160]

I land in STT at 1:04 on Tuesday so, I’m rooting for a fast mover.

Just go on and do your thing #2.  Don’t dither about.

[NorthLoop 14183]

6 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

I feel like Puerto Rico was created to absorb hurricanes.

When I went to Punta Cana we asked them about hurricanes. They were like "they never hit here - they just hit PR and veer north or south. We are blessed. PR is cursed." 

[Rudiger 1160]

13 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

I feel like Puerto Rico was created to absorb hurricanes.

As a resident of the north side of the island, I’ll thank you not to put that evil on me. 

[Mother mopar 3318]

Debbie Does Destin?

Hell no, she can do another city I don't live near that's start with a D...Del Rio.

[GreenspointTexas 9598]

Meh. No fucking way it gets worse than that Derecho was

[MissingInAction 25013]

1 hour ago, Rudiger said:

As a resident of the north side of the island, I’ll thank you not to put that evil on me. 

[miguelito 11255]

13 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

[Armybrat 40822]

17 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

I feel like Puerto Rico was created to absorb hurricanes.

I lived there 1950-54, and we experienced one or two hurricanes. 
Fort Brooke - our quarters were in the tree area center right of the road up to El Morro.

Edited June 29 by Armybrat

[atomheartbevo 89628]

15 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

This is going to be a monster 

Breaking: Tropical Storm Beryl has formed in the Atlantic and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days.

Yep, they seem to be getting more and more nervous about it   Should be the first hurricane shortly.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep, they seem to be getting more and more nervous about it   Should be the first hurricane shortly.

official:

 

[4th&Five 41519]

[miguelito 11255]

37 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

But on the other hand,

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

oh no

[Mother mopar 3318]

oh no

Starting to breathe, this is gonna be a Cat 3 pretty damn quick.

[tx 3 putt 76873]

Kennedy County is the perfect Tx landing spot. Then sling that rain around 

[boknowstecmo 216]

This thing is going to be a monster for awhile, and then it'll hit the Yucatan and then the same coast of Mexico as every other wave so far this year. 

[tx 3 putt 76873]

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[tx 3 putt 76873]

If they named me beryl, I’d be pissed off too 

[mdmost 43000]

Glad we just got back from the Cayman Islands and didn't choose this week as our week to go. 

[Henry Hill 3156]

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2937]

4 hours ago, boknowstecmo said:

This thing is going to be a monster for awhile, and then it'll hit the Yucatan and then the same coast of Mexico as every other wave so far this year. 

00z GFS op run says not so fast my friend.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Eye clearing out