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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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Now looks like it’ll wreak havoc in the Winwards and then westward…but weaken and/or be pushed way south into central Mexico

On to the next one!

Now looks like it’ll wreak havoc in the Winwards and then westward…but weaken and/or be pushed way south into central Mexico

On to the next one!

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11 minutes ago, SarkAfterDark said:

I know it’s probably too much to ask but I wish some of you could refrain from mucking up this thread with irrelevant BS. 
 

Looks like this hurricane season is going to be serious business. Wherever Beryl decides to land it will likely do some serious damage.

[SERIOUS]

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10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'd like to know what the fuck that means in English. I'm assuming some form of "This hurricane will fuck you in the ass, not give you a reach around, and then move onto your pets" or some form of meteoroligical equivalent. 

It means Beryl is likely going to intensify into a category 5

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13 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

It means Beryl is likely going to intensify into a category 5

SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

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1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

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200.gif
 

hopefully the Yucatan can weaken this beast 

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23 hours ago, Hate said:

I’m glad this is a week out as this is certain to change. I am running my generator for a little while today to make sure it’s in working order…just in case.

 

IMG_1829.gif

Every major highway heading north out of Houston has at least one stretch of major road construction reducing down to one or no lanes in some cases.  Oooooooopsie.

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The latest HWRF (model dedicated to hurricanes, though of questionable accuracy like all models) has this barreling through as a cat 3/4 through many resort hot spots - Jamaica, Cayman, Cozumel, and Cancun all take direct or very near direct hits. Haven't seen what happens after Cancun yet (still running) but looks like it will predict a Texas hit.

For that matter, a lot of the models are shifting north today which brings shooting the Cancun Cuba gap into play and then open waters of the GoM. Beryl been on the north side of the NHC cone all day as well.

Edited by dieucla98
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2 minutes ago, Gale Snoats said:

We're supposed to be in Mexico City Tues -- Fri then in Puerto Escondido for the next week.  is there a path where it could fuck with either of those two locations or would the mountains / land kill it before it got to either?

I would venture a guess that the mountains will save you but it's still too early to know. There are certainly models and meteorologists that are currently predicting this burying itself into Belize or S. Mexico of varying degrees of strength. 

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Beryl is a beast in the Caribbean, and Texans should not let their guard down this early in the game. That's your Monday afternoon headline in the tropics. If you want more details, read on.

The storm made landfall over Carriacou Island just 7 mph shy of category 5 strength. In the image shared here you'll see the distinct eye on visible satellite along with the past eye path in white and the forecast eye path from NHC in red. After making landfall, Beryl took a northwest jog and didn't weaken one bit.

The stronger Beryl remains, the more it's center is going to want to deviate to the north of that red line, or travel on the right side of the cone (not pictured here). If it weakens, it will turn more westward. Why does this matter? The more latitude it gains northward, the larger it will become, and larger storms can fend off wind shear better than smaller storms.

The next two wildcards in the eventual path occur around Jamaica on Wednesday. Will it directly hit the island and weaken? Or will it miss the island completely? Will predicted wind shear knock down its strength? Again, a strong storm will want to gain latitude north while a weaker storm will want to head more westward.

The third wildcard is any interaction it will likely have with the Yucatan peninsula Thursday night or Friday.

And then the final wildcard is if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, what will the precise steering currents look like? The placement and strength of the heat ridges will determine how far north it can and cannot go.

So while you may have seen some spaghetti model computer tracks online that look encouraging at first glance, it's not that simple this early in the game, especially when you factor in that most of those models that steer the storm well south of Texas think Beryl is significantly weaker than it currently is right now.

Also keep in mind this is an unprecedented storm at this time of year. We don't have a good analog of what past storms have done at this strength at this time of year because we haven't observed this before.

At the end of the day, our current status in Texas is: Beryl bears watching, make/review your hurricane plan, and be ready to act if needed later this week. We'll have a clearer picture by Wednesday.

The next forecast track from the National Hurricane Center comes out by 4PM. We'll keep you updated on live TV and here: abc13.com/tropicalupdate

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So you got your "Eye of the Hurricane" and now it seems we got ourselves the "Taint of the Hurricane." 

Is it weird that the last few years, we've had so many Cat 3-5 systems in June, which is way earlier than usual?  

Edited by YGIFS
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I am of mixed feelings. I know if it hits the wrong place the devastation is massive, millions of lives are impacted, with many not fortunate to have a blue shed blown to the sea.

But if it hits in a non populated area, and weakens (Thanks Yucatan), a Cat 2 with wide rain belts could be the drought buster we need.

 

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6 minutes ago, miguelito said:

You might want to hurry.

it's already plowed through there

One of the things I read was that there's a big harbor on the west side of the island that's a haven for rich folk and their yachts, and they park them there to keep them safe from hurricanes. Wonder how they fared today. 

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