2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[txduck87 985]

Yeah if the airline can get in and out before the hurricane, there's no way they'll cancel the flight.  They'll gladly drop you, and strand you, without a second thought.
Several years back we booked a package vacation through our travel agent, for Jamaica, in July.  So of course a hurricane decides to meander through the Caribbean, just as we were set to depart. The last couple of days before we were supposed to leave Austin, we kept calling the airline to see if they were going to cancel, and they said "nope business as usual."  We got nervous at one day out, pulled the plug on the Caribbean and went to Los Cabos instead-- we had paid for the hurricane insurance so it was a free change in itinerary for us.
That hurricane didn't end up hitting Jamaica, they just caught heavy rain bands for days, but it did plow directly into Playa del Carmen/Tulum.  We met a couple at our hotel in Cabo who were originally supposed to go to Playa del Carmen, but had bailed the same time we did and opted for Cabo.  But they had friends who decided to go ahead to Playa.  As soon as they landed in Cancun, they were informed their hotels were closed and they were bussed to a high school gymnasium somewhere around the area, where they sheltered for the next couple of days as the hurricane blew right over them. 
So yeah, the airlines aren't your friend, they don't care, at all.

[Blotto 23487]

42 minutes ago, utee94 said:

As soon as they landed in Cancun, they were informed their hotels were closed and they were bussed to a high school gymnasium somewhere around the area, where they sheltered for the next couple of days as the hurricane blew right over them. 

[Armybrat 40822]

11 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I’m scheduled to go to isla mujeres the first week of August. Hope it’s still there. 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

1 hour ago, twosheds said:

It happens over and over.  The early models have landfall at Tampico and then 7 days later Morgan City is staring down the barrel.  

If this thing manages to shoot the Yucatan-Cuba gap, I think landfall will be somewhere between NOLA and Panama City

[Skipper 6127]

7 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

If this thing manages to shoot the Yucatan-Cuba gap, I think landfall will be somewhere between NOLA and Panama City

I thought everyone is saying that big ass heat dome would keep it south

[Eastwood 4394]

23 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I thought everyone is saying that big ass heat dome would keep it south

You must be new here. The heat dome will shift west and sit over CenTex, dragging Beryl up the Sabine River. Harris County will get 5 inches of rain and temps in the high 80s while CenTex gets 0 inches of rain and has 7 consecutive days of 102+.

[tx 3 putt 76868]

8 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Hnggg

im at defcon 3

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

24 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

You must be new here. The heat dome will shift west and sit over CenTex, dragging Beryl up the Sabine River. Harris County will get 5 inches of rain and temps in the high 80s while CenTex gets 0 inches of rain and has 7 consecutive days of 102+.

..with 150% humidity. 

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

If this thing manages to shoot the Yucatan-Cuba gap, I think landfall will be somewhere between NOLA and Panama City

Crazy Ivan to Tampa

[tx 3 putt 76868]

10:45AM Tuesday Beryl Update:

Beryl remains a powerful category 5 hurricane, and South Texas is now in the forecast cone. Let's take a moment, then, to refresh our minds on what the cone communicates.

The cone is designed to capture where the center of the storm will go, and it spreads out in time because of the increase in forecast uncertainty. If you draw a line across the cone, those represent equal chances of where the storm could be at that time.  It does not communicate anything about who will be impacted nor what those impacts will be. Therefore it's important to keep in mind that impacts can and often do extend beyond the cone, especially at shorter timeframes.

So what does it mean now that South Texas is in the cone? It means impacts from Beryl could begin along the Texas coastline as early as Sunday, and Texans need to keep a watchful eye on the forecast. 

If Beryl tracks on the left side of the cone, impacts would be minimal to Texas and confined to locales near the border with Mexico. If it tracks along the middle of the cone, impacts would be greater over South Texas and lesser over Southeast Texas. If, however, it tracks on the right side of the cone, it would be of much greater consequence to those of us here in Southeast Texas.

We are seeing signs that wind shear is beginning to impact the storm over the Caribbean, and we should see the wind speeds gradually come down over the next 24 hours. That said, Beryl is predicted to still be a category 3 or 4 hurricane when it passes by or over Jamaica tomorrow.

If you've been following my posts or forecasts on TV, you know that tomorrow is a key day to see how Beryl's potential interactions with Jamaica impact its strength and track down the road. Remember, a stronger storm past Jamaica will want to follow the right side of the cone, while a weaker storm past Jamaica will want to follow the left side of the cone. Regardless of which scenario comes true, the storm *should* not be as powerful over the Gulf of Mexico as it is now due to less heat content in the water, the effects of wind shear, and any prior land interactions. But is it possible a hurricane Beryl could impact Texas? Yes.

For now, keep your guard up, review your hurricane plan, and we'll keep you calmly informed and aware as we continue to track this historic storm. abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

[tx 3 putt 76868]

Jamaica needs to fuck up Beryl, 

[atomheartbevo 89624]

Oh shit Houston is fucked

[tx 3 putt 76868]

[Helobious 9456]

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

"Amarillo set to be wiped out by killer storm. "

[someguy 1508]

my condolences to South Texas.

[Skipper 6127]

4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

I've read enough Helobious posts to know I would now immediately be prepping for the storm of the century if I lived anywhere along the coast

[Helobious 9456]

Just now, Skipper said:

I've read enough Helobious posts to know I would now immediately be prepping for the storm of the century if I lived anywhere along the coast

I mean it’s not even my prediction really. All the models have this storm making 2nd landfall as nothing more than a tropical storm 

[SarkAfterDark 1688]

Models have underestimated this storm its entire cycle. We’ll see what happens.

[MissingInAction 25005]

It will turn into a Cat 10 and wipe out Texas and the Midwest plunging the world into famine.

[Hate 20106]

5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've read enough Helobious posts to know I would now immediately be prepping for the storm of the century if I lived anywhere along the coast

Every day is Opposite Day in Helobiousland.

[InkaUtexas 25857]

6 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

It will turn into a Cat 10 and wipe out Texas and the Midwest plunging the world into famine.

Then, taking a hard turn east, wreak havoc all the way until about 5 miles from Yankee Stadium, dissipates right before the game. Sun comes out, birds sing, Steinbrenner senior comes back alive, and Aaron Judge hits 9 home runs in a game.

[HornOnTheBayou 8905]

18 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

Welp, I guess it's all over.

[Helobious 9456]

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Then, taking a hard turn east, wreak havoc all the way until about 5 miles from Yankee Stadium, dissipates right before the game. Sun comes out, birds sing, Steinbrenner senior comes back alive, and Aaron Judge hits 9 home runs in a game.

Go on…

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

27 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

Why are you the way that you are?

Do you enjoy jinxing us?

Are you a roofing contractor? What?

[Trey3216 15343]

24 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Then, taking a hard turn east, wreak havoc all the way until about 5 miles from Yankee Stadium, dissipates right before the game. Sun comes out, birds sing, Steinbrenner senior comes back alive, and Aaron Judge hits 9 home runs in a game.

...and the Yanks lose.  

[Evil Bill Obrien 3257]

41 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

Whelp…

 

evacuate Katy when?

[Trey3216 15343]

13 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Why are you the way that you are?

Do you enjoy jinxing us?

Are you a roofing contractor? What?

Assistant to the General Manager of the Roofing contractor.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

It will turn into a Cat 10 and wipe out Texas and the Midwest plunging the world into famine.

Hope it doesn’t stay on the Mississippi River all of the way up to my neck of the woods

[tx 3 putt 76868]

52 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

 

Evacuate everything south of San Antonio. We are now officially fucked 

 

 

[tx 3 putt 76868]

47 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I mean it’s not even my prediction really. All the models have this storm making 2nd landfall as nothing more than a tropical storm 

[Fudge Nuggets 19187]

2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

You must be new here. The heat dome will shift west and sit over CenTex, dragging Beryl up the Sabine River. Harris County will get 5 inches of rain and temps in the high 80s while CenTex gets 0 inches of rain and has 7 consecutive days of 102+.

I’m good with this forecast. 

[General Specific 3253]

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

Bernie Loots sock identified!

[Trey3216 15343]

34 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Go on…

[NorthLoop 14180]

48 minutes ago, Hate said:

Every day is Opposite Day in Helobiousland.

He's the Wimp Lo of Surly posters. 

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

55 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I mean it’s not even my prediction really. All the models have this storm making 2nd landfall as nothing more than a tropical storm 

[Pato del Muerto 52485]

4 hours ago, utee94 said:

Several years back we booked a package vacation through our travel agent, for Jamaica, in July.  So of course a hurricane decides to meander through the Caribbean, just as we were set to depart. The last couple of days before we were supposed to leave Austin, we kept calling the airline to see if they were going to cancel, and they said "nope business as usual."  We got nervous at one day out, pulled the plug on the Caribbean and went to Los Cabos instead-- we had paid for the hurricane insurance so it was a free change in itinerary for us.

That hurricane didn't end up hitting Jamaica, they just caught heavy rain bands for days, but it did plow directly into Playa del Carmen/Tulum. 

Wilma in 2006?

[pearlandhorn 3269]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

I mean it’s not even my prediction really. All the models have this storm making 2nd landfall as nothing more than a tropical storm 

Yeah, I think they said the same shit about Harvey.

[Gatorubet 30185]

 

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

So, now this is a lock for Houston…?

[Prepuce of Doom 21052]

39 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Wilma in 2006?

Wilma was 2005. I lived in Miami at the time and was without power for almost 3 weeks. 

[Pato del Muerto 52485]

3 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Wilma was 2005. I lived in Miami at the time and was without power for almost 3 weeks. 

That makes more sense. It affected the docking of the cruise we took to get married, which was in 06, but after I posted I thought how could they have been to W already when we got married in April. Was from the previous season. Mystery solved. 

[Hollywood 342]

im at defcon 3

Added some science to your graphic

[texasdago 7567]

3 hours ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

Harvey says "Hi!"

[Hook1997 5351]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Evacuate everything south of San Antonio. We are now officially fucked 

 

 

I just called all the neighbors and told them board up the windows, loadup the wives, kids, pets, valuables and head north by Saturday morning or they might find your bodies in the trees.  The end is near.  

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

AVNI is heading straight for my house... fucking thing wants me ded

[tx 3 putt 76868]

4PM Tuesday Beryl Update:

Keep your guard up, Texas. Hurricane Beryl is still on track to eventually emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, and the newest forecast shows it near hurricane strength as it approaches Texas or Mexico. 

At this time Hurricane Beryl remains near category 5 intensity, but it is starting to feel the impacts of wind shear, which should cause the intensity to decrease some on its approach to Jamaica tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center notes that the storm is expected to be stronger than previously predicted on its approach to the Yucatan Peninsula, and it is also likely to re-strengthen some over the Gulf of Mexico. How strong it gets over the Gulf is largely a function of how much it is weakened by the current wind shear and future land interactions with Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.

This is the final key message today from the National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion:

"There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl."

The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are the best in the world at what they do and consistently outperform every computer model...and they acknowledge they don't know exactly how this all plays out over the Gulf.

For those asking, I don't have a gut feel on this one because storms have a history of doing unexpected things around Jamaica. I just know that if it gets knocked down significantly by wind shear and Jamaica, we're in better shape here in Texas. If not, a hurricane landfall along the Texas coast becomes more likely sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday window.

We should have a clearer picture once it clears Jamaica tomorrow. Continue to monitor the storm along with us, review your hurricane plan with your family, and be prepared to take action later this week if needed. 

abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

[MissingInAction 25005]

[tx 3 putt 76868]

1 minute ago, MissingInAction said:

 

This mother fucker is wide open 

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

This mother fucker is wide open 

just like South Austin's mom

[TXLNGHRN10 341]

So if it plows up through Brownsville do the lakes get any rain? 

[MissingInAction 25005]

I plowed your mom's Brownsville last night