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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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Yeah if the airline can get in and out before the hurricane, there's no way they'll cancel the flight.  They'll gladly drop you, and strand you, without a second thought.
Several years back we booked a package vacation through our travel agent, for Jamaica, in July.  So of course a hurricane decides to meander through the Caribbean, just as we were set to depart. The last couple of days before we were supposed to leave Austin, we kept calling the airline to see if they were going to cancel, and they said "nope business as usual."  We got nervous at one day out, pulled the plug on the Caribbean and went to Los Cabos instead-- we had paid for the hurricane insurance so it was a free change in itinerary for us.
That hurricane didn't end up hitting Jamaica, they just caught heavy rain bands for days, but it did plow directly into Playa del Carmen/Tulum.  We met a couple at our hotel in Cabo who were originally supposed to go to Playa del Carmen, but had bailed the same time we did and opted for Cabo.  But they had friends who decided to go ahead to Playa.  As soon as they landed in Cancun, they were informed their hotels were closed and they were bussed to a high school gymnasium somewhere around the area, where they sheltered for the next couple of days as the hurricane blew right over them. 
So yeah, the airlines aren't your friend, they don't care, at all.

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42 minutes ago, utee94 said:

As soon as they landed in Cancun, they were informed their hotels were closed and they were bussed to a high school gymnasium somewhere around the area, where they sheltered for the next couple of days as the hurricane blew right over them. 

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24 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

You must be new here. The heat dome will shift west and sit over CenTex, dragging Beryl up the Sabine River. Harris County will get 5 inches of rain and temps in the high 80s while CenTex gets 0 inches of rain and has 7 consecutive days of 102+.

..with 150% humidity. 

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1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

If this thing manages to shoot the Yucatan-Cuba gap, I think landfall will be somewhere between NOLA and Panama City

Crazy Ivan to Tampa

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10:45AM Tuesday Beryl Update:

Beryl remains a powerful category 5 hurricane, and South Texas is now in the forecast cone. Let's take a moment, then, to refresh our minds on what the cone communicates.

The cone is designed to capture where the center of the storm will go, and it spreads out in time because of the increase in forecast uncertainty. If you draw a line across the cone, those represent equal chances of where the storm could be at that time.  It does not communicate anything about who will be impacted nor what those impacts will be. Therefore it's important to keep in mind that impacts can and often do extend beyond the cone, especially at shorter timeframes.

So what does it mean now that South Texas is in the cone? It means impacts from Beryl could begin along the Texas coastline as early as Sunday, and Texans need to keep a watchful eye on the forecast. 

If Beryl tracks on the left side of the cone, impacts would be minimal to Texas and confined to locales near the border with Mexico. If it tracks along the middle of the cone, impacts would be greater over South Texas and lesser over Southeast Texas. If, however, it tracks on the right side of the cone, it would be of much greater consequence to those of us here in Southeast Texas.

We are seeing signs that wind shear is beginning to impact the storm over the Caribbean, and we should see the wind speeds gradually come down over the next 24 hours. That said, Beryl is predicted to still be a category 3 or 4 hurricane when it passes by or over Jamaica tomorrow.

If you've been following my posts or forecasts on TV, you know that tomorrow is a key day to see how Beryl's potential interactions with Jamaica impact its strength and track down the road. Remember, a stronger storm past Jamaica will want to follow the right side of the cone, while a weaker storm past Jamaica will want to follow the left side of the cone. Regardless of which scenario comes true, the storm *should* not be as powerful over the Gulf of Mexico as it is now due to less heat content in the water, the effects of wind shear, and any prior land interactions. But is it possible a hurricane Beryl could impact Texas? Yes.

For now, keep your guard up, review your hurricane plan, and we'll keep you calmly informed and aware as we continue to track this historic storm. abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

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Just now, Skipper said:

I've read enough Helobious posts to know I would now immediately be prepping for the storm of the century if I lived anywhere along the coast

I mean it’s not even my prediction really. All the models have this storm making 2nd landfall as nothing more than a tropical storm 

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6 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

It will turn into a Cat 10 and wipe out Texas and the Midwest plunging the world into famine.

Then, taking a hard turn east, wreak havoc all the way until about 5 miles from Yankee Stadium, dissipates right before the game. Sun comes out, birds sing, Steinbrenner senior comes back alive, and Aaron Judge hits 9 home runs in a game.

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27 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Storm is losing steam pretty fast. Should hit the Yucatán as a Cat 1 and then will be a weak tropical storm when it hits south Texas judging by those models 

Why are you the way that you are?

Do you enjoy jinxing us?

Are you a roofing contractor? What?

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24 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Then, taking a hard turn east, wreak havoc all the way until about 5 miles from Yankee Stadium, dissipates right before the game. Sun comes out, birds sing, Steinbrenner senior comes back alive, and Aaron Judge hits 9 home runs in a game.

...and the Yanks lose.  

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2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

You must be new here. The heat dome will shift west and sit over CenTex, dragging Beryl up the Sabine River. Harris County will get 5 inches of rain and temps in the high 80s while CenTex gets 0 inches of rain and has 7 consecutive days of 102+.

I’m good with this forecast. 

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4 hours ago, utee94 said:

Several years back we booked a package vacation through our travel agent, for Jamaica, in July.  So of course a hurricane decides to meander through the Caribbean, just as we were set to depart. The last couple of days before we were supposed to leave Austin, we kept calling the airline to see if they were going to cancel, and they said "nope business as usual."  We got nervous at one day out, pulled the plug on the Caribbean and went to Los Cabos instead-- we had paid for the hurricane insurance so it was a free change in itinerary for us.

That hurricane didn't end up hitting Jamaica, they just caught heavy rain bands for days, but it did plow directly into Playa del Carmen/Tulum. 

Wilma in 2006?

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3 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Wilma was 2005. I lived in Miami at the time and was without power for almost 3 weeks. 

That makes more sense. It affected the docking of the cruise we took to get married, which was in 06, but after I posted I thought how could they have been to W already when we got married in April. Was from the previous season. Mystery solved. 

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Hip-Hop What GIF by T-Pain
 

Evacuate everything south of San Antonio. We are now officially fucked 

 

 

I just called all the neighbors and told them board up the windows, loadup the wives, kids, pets, valuables and head north by Saturday morning or they might find your bodies in the trees.  The end is near.  

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4PM Tuesday Beryl Update:

Keep your guard up, Texas. Hurricane Beryl is still on track to eventually emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, and the newest forecast shows it near hurricane strength as it approaches Texas or Mexico. 

At this time Hurricane Beryl remains near category 5 intensity, but it is starting to feel the impacts of wind shear, which should cause the intensity to decrease some on its approach to Jamaica tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center notes that the storm is expected to be stronger than previously predicted on its approach to the Yucatan Peninsula, and it is also likely to re-strengthen some over the Gulf of Mexico. How strong it gets over the Gulf is largely a function of how much it is weakened by the current wind shear and future land interactions with Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.

This is the final key message today from the National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion:

"There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl."

The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are the best in the world at what they do and consistently outperform every computer model...and they acknowledge they don't know exactly how this all plays out over the Gulf.

For those asking, I don't have a gut feel on this one because storms have a history of doing unexpected things around Jamaica. I just know that if it gets knocked down significantly by wind shear and Jamaica, we're in better shape here in Texas. If not, a hurricane landfall along the Texas coast becomes more likely sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday window.

We should have a clearer picture once it clears Jamaica tomorrow. Continue to monitor the storm along with us, review your hurricane plan with your family, and be prepared to take action later this week if needed. 

abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

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