2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Biff Tannen 45013]

3 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

Back from the dead

 

Upside down hell skull. Metal as fuck

[Newdoc 3421]

Latest recon has it back to a Cat 3. Will have to see how much landfall weakens but it may exit the Yucatán healthier than predicted. Hoping for an unpopulated Mexico landfall with a slow soaker moving into S and C Texas.

[atomheartbevo 88913]

10 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Latest recon has it back to a Cat 3. Will have to see how much landfall weakens but it may exit the Yucatán healthier than predicted. Hoping for an unpopulated Mexico landfall with a slow soaker moving into S and C Texas.

 

Looking at the water temps, they are the same on both sides of the Yucatán.

https://coastalwatertemperatureguide-noaa.hub.arcgis.com

But they look to be within a degree of the average, so

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/all_table.html#wgof

[tx 3 putt 75226]

[tx 3 putt 75226]

Saturday am update will be the kick off of mass hysteria 

Edited July 5 by tx 3 putt

[Hate 20046]

The NHC hasn’t really moved off of this track for a few days now. Those people have the track down these days. The only question now is how intense is it when it makes landfall just over the Texas border. It seems a mid Cat 1 would be perfect on the forecast track. It would die out over the Hill Country and help out some lakes!

[tx 3 putt 75226]

That track has it going through the thick of the Yucatán, that’s the ideal scenario. Hopefully it stays on that path 

[tx 3 putt 75226]

10:45 PM July 4th Beryl Track Update:

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are likely going to be issued for parts of the Texas coastline sometime on Friday. That's your headline tonight.

I'm sharing with you the new forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center and a slew of other impact graphics. A category 3 hurricane landfall is expected along the Yucatan peninsula overnight, and it's looking more and more like Beryl will have a chance to intensify back into a hurricane this weekend after it emerges over the warm Gulf waters Friday night. 

There are two changes to the NHC forecast worth pointing out:
1. The storm is expected to take a slower track over the Gulf of Mexico, which means more time over the water and a landfall more likely on Monday.
2. Partially for this reason, the intensity forecast of the storm has been increased ahead of landfall. NHC is still explicitly showing a category 1 hurricane at 80 mph ahead of landfall, but there is room for it to run higher than that.

Landfall continues to look most likely along the Lower Texas coast, but a landfall along the Middle Texas coast around Matagorda Bay is still possible.

The high-resolution hurricane model that has had the best handle on Beryl's structure today continues to be the HWRF, and I have it on good word that the HWRF historically performs the best once a storm is over the Gulf of Mexico. It's last 2 runs show the storm making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi as a category 2 or 3 hurricane. Because Beryl could be running nearly parallel to the coast as it gets tugged north, any slight deviation to the right could have a big impact on where it comes ashore, so keep your guard up along the Middle Texas coast. Also remember that a stronger hurricane will want to track more toward the right side of the cone.

For those of you local here to Southeast Texas, I do expect we will have a coastal storm surge on the Upper Texas coast even if Beryl makes landfall around Brownsville. Our biggest local concern will be the heavy rain possible for a few days as Beryl slowly moves north and more tropical moisture from tropical disturbance 96-L piles in behind it. We will also have some risk of tornadoes from Beryl's outer rain bands, but I think it's highly unlikely hurricane force winds reach us unless the center of Beryl unexpectedly reforms northward once it gets over the Gulf of Mexico (low chance, but it can happen when a storm weakens to a tropical storm). If hurricane force winds reach our coastline, it would likely be around Matagorda Bay.

Because Beryl remains a small hurricane, it will be susceptible to quick intensity changes, both up and down. And because the path is more dependent than normal on the intensity, I highly encourage you to stay looped into the forecast through the long holiday weekend in case Beryl does something unexpected again. It wouldn't be the first time.

More to come in the morning.

abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

[InkaUtexas 24932]

That forecast is the best we could hope for. Will be rough in the RGV and along the coast. Tidal surge, lots of flooding. Texas is mobilizing.

Governor Greg Abbott today directed the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) to issue an advisory notice to the 39 Texas Emergency Management Council Agencies to prepare to support hurricane response and recovery efforts and develop 24/7 staffing plans for the State Emergency Operations Center should the forecast track for Hurricane Beryl further materialize with expected impacts to the Texas Gulf Coast. Additionally, state agencies have been tasked with ensuring that state emergency response assets are prepared for potential hurricane response deployment.

"Texas stands ready to deploy all available resources and support to our coastal communities as Hurricane Beryl approaches the state," said Governor Abbott. "Today, I directed TDEM to issue an advisory notice to our emergency management agencies to ensure Texas is prepared and equipped for hurricane response and recovery efforts. As Texans around the south coastal areas make holiday plans and visitors begin to travel for the holiday weekend, I urge them to take necessary safety precautions, remain weather aware, and have an emergency plan ready for themselves and their families. State and local officials will continue to work around-the-clock to monitor statewide weather conditions and help protect Texans."

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tdem-to-issue-hurricane-beryl-advisory-notice-for-texas-emergency-management-council

[tx 3 putt 75226]

Corpus and everything south seems to be in major prep mode. As soon as it hits the gulf, that triggers a chain of response events. I’ve seen the smaller south Texas towns already giving away supplies and telling people to prepare for a major storm. Alberto brought down some water systems, left towns with no water and no where to buy water. 

if beryl slows down, buckle up l

 

[Sawbonz 26808]

14 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Texas stands ready to deploy all available resources and support to our coastal communities as Hurricane Beryl approaches the state," said Governor Abbott

[F250 28471]

26 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Texas stands ready to deploy all available resources and support to our coastal communities as Hurricane Beryl

[tx 3 putt 75226]

🙏🙏

Edited July 5 by tx 3 putt

[MrBig 5163]

1 hour ago, F250 said:

If we see him near the coast wearing a Beryl shirt, that hurricane is cursed to fall apart faster than Dak and the Cowboys in a playoff game. No CR 

[Updawg 2245]

If we see him near the coast wearing a Beryl shirt, that hurricane is cursed to fall apart faster than Dak and the Cowboys in a playoff game. No CR 

Don’t forget about his curse on the rest of the states teams. What an asshole. No cr

[tx 3 putt 75226]

 

 

[pacmanmakesitrain 91]

Everything seems to be trending further north this morning. Definitely need to keep an eye on this in the Houston area, which I suspect most people are not at the moment.

[Newdoc 3421]

If this hits Brownsville with all that’s going on, y’all know what this means…

[Parliament 13997]

12 hours ago, ScottS said:

 

Back when we didn't need to subscribe to Spotify and make our own kickass playlists.  #enshittening

[Storm the Field 5254]

[Evil Bill Obrien 2914]

my body is ready in H-town, bring it Beryl

[Elmer_Fudd 22008]

45 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I've got a flight Wednesday morning from San Diego to DFW arriving at noon, should I be worried about delay/cancelation?

[atomheartbevo 88913]

3 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

I've got a flight Wednesday morning from San Diego to DFW arriving at noon, should I be worried about delay/cancelation?

Now that you’ve made Beryl aware of your plans, you do need to be worried.

[justhookit 4165]

Yeah had a flight to Costa Rica this afternoon. Went to bed last night still planning on going but just had to change it to late next week since current track has Beryl coming basically straight through Port A. Fuck this storm (and fuck Harvey forever).

[mdmost 42316]

Has there been any news on how the Cayman Islands was affected?

[justhookit 4165]

13 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

I've got a flight Wednesday morning from San Diego to DFW arriving at noon, should I be worried about delay/cancelation?

No

[MrX 683]

It went south of the Caymans - no real impact there, at least on Grand Cayman. 

[MrX 683]

Jeff Masters is always a good source for hurricane updates. 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/

[The Ace of Aces 4946]

As currently modeled it'd bring some much-needed rain to the western hill country. Hope it doesn't make more of a N turn and miss those folks. They need it. 

[YGIFS 19445]

24 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

I've got a flight Wednesday morning from San Diego to DFW arriving at noon, should I be worried about delay/cancelation?

Your first clue shoulda been when your Orbitz customer service rep was named Beryl.  Next time, ask for Juglesh

[MissingInAction 24324]

42 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

I've got a flight Wednesday morning from San Diego to DFW arriving at noon, should I be worried about delay/cancelation?

Helobious says, "Nah."

[Storm the Field 5254]

10 am update from NWS has landfall early Monday morning just SW of Corpus. Each update gets a little further up the coast. Right now looking like this thing could come in anywhere from Baffin to Matagorda.

 

 

[Gap03 3147]

Bitch is going to curve north just enough so that Austin gets 2 drops of rain and 48 hours of 45mph wind, isn't she?

[chainsaw 9573]

13 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Bitch is going to curve north just enough so that Austin gets 2 drops of rain and 48 hours of 45mph wind, isn't she?

[Teamdirtyleg 1052]

We were supposed to fly Corpus to Houston to Roatan Monday morning with about a 45 minute layover (Airline had changed the original time).  Changed our flight just Houston to Roatan because I don't think that Jet is leaving on time, if at all.

Now I'm wondering how much prepping I'll need to do on the house before we drive up to Houston Sunday and how far of a detour the flight to Honduras will take.

Edited July 5 by Teamdirtyleg

[Newdoc 3421]

26 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

48 hours of 45mph wind

And hot dusty wind sucked up from Del Rio.

[atomheartbevo 88913]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

Has there been any news on how the Cayman Islands was affected?

By the hurricane or by the earth’s core slowing down and even reversing?  As far as the hurricane, I think they are alright.

[Post Oak 20092]

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

 

[tx 3 putt 75226]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

10 am update from NWS has landfall early Monday morning just SW of Corpus. Each update gets a little further up the coast. Right now looking like this thing could come in anywhere from Baffin to Matagorda.

 

 

Just like harvey

[tx 3 putt 75226]

Once it hits the gulf, then the updates will be interesting 

[Steamboat1874 4008]

19 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

 

Man I miss him is our president.

[Deej 76156]

55 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Bitch is going to curve north just enough so that Austin gets 2 drops of rain and 48 hours of 45mph wind, isn't she?

John Sharp and aggy right now...

[tx 3 putt 75226]

Welp headed down the coast to help some fam storm prep. DEFCON 1 down there 

[tx 3 putt 75226]

1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

Bitch is going to curve north just enough so that Austin gets 2 drops of rain and 48 hours of 45mph wind, isn't she?

[tx 3 putt 75226]

[UTexasFight 9292]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Man, that is depressing.

centex /hill country gonna get nothing 

[tx 3 putt 75226]

Excellent summary ….

 

[MissingInAction 24324]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

And hot dusty wind sucked up from Del Rio.

I sucked a hot dusty wind out of your mom last night.

 

Ok, I'm done.

Edited July 5 by MissingInAction
Done

[tx 3 putt 75226]

Voluntary Evac orders hitting ….

Due to the northward shift in TS/Hurricane Beryl Calhoun County is issuing a Voluntary Evacuation of low lying and flood prone areas at of Friday 7-5-24 at 12pm.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

Wife was one of two finalists to work down in Palacios at the P&W Hatchery. She was pissed she did not get it, and so was I. Live on the bay and do fuck all since there is no overhead.

Told her about the storm and she looked at me and said glad I did not get it, you would be moving everything.

I smiled and said, yeah, but look at it like this. All that shit is going to be rebuilt and that requires more staff this time with Federal funds as well.