2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

1 hour ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

 

Don't remember Chris, so he must've been a real pussy of a storm.  Will you accept Debby as the next name?

Edited July 6 by crimsonlonghorn
Not sure how this post happened. Sorry.

[HiggyBaby 2,489]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Beryl's potential landfall has shifted nearly *250 miles up the coast in just 24 hours* according to the latest consensus models (pink). Consequently, it'll spend more time over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. Impacts from #Beryl are trending upward for the Houston/Galveston area as it approaches the Texas coast as a projected hurricane. To what degree? We'll know more on Saturday. @WINKNews
 

 

Kind of sucks for anybody wanting rain on the west side of the track.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

Models are all starting to agree on somewhere between Aransas Pass and Sargent as a Cat 1-2 or strong TS on Monday morning.

Western side of Houston and suburbs will get pretty good wind and a lot of rain but nothing especially damaging. All things considered it could be a lot worse. 

[ChickenSandwich 9,760]

1 hour ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

 

Don't remember Chris, so he must've been a real pussy of a storm.  Will you accept Debby as the next name?

Your terms are acceptable 

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

NOAA is saying for now that Austin will still get some good rain. 

[UTGrad98 2,210]

Dallas getting fucked for rain.

[ABSR 5,274]

2 hours ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Next storm to be named is Chris, so I'm going with Beryl is a bitch.

Beryl keeps changing her mind, acting irrationally, doing things in no one’s best interest, and just when we think she will come to us all wet and ready she flakes out.

Your math checks out.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

The names alternate male female. The first storm was Alberto and the fourth storm is Debby.

So, logically, Beryl is female and Chris is male. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25,822]

very disappointing turn of events

[Dnaguy 11,565]

17 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Beryl keeps changing her mind, acting irrationally, doing things in no one’s best interest, and just when we think she will come to us all wet and ready she flakes out.

Your math checks out.

[Js1 82,948]

13 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

 

So, logically, Beryl is female and Chris is male. 

You sure?

[Born to Run 6,280]

Or play Nintendo Jeopardy.

With those winnings, Nikita will never know, anything about my home.

[GreenspointTexas 9,376]

54 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Dallas getting fucked for rain.

Dallas doesnt need rain.

[UTexasFight 9,292]

3 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Dallas doesnt need rain.

Yeah, not when Debby is up next

[General Specific 3,152]

So half of us are dry, no lube! The other half, prepare thy anus! Sounds about right.

[phdhorn 6,224]

11 hours ago, Indomitable said:

What a dumbass fucking name. I’ve never even heard of someone named Beryl. 

Hi, a few notions:

1) They give weird, psychotic names to storms because if a storm is bad and is known for death and destruction, people with that name will always be associated with that storm. Hence, no "Johns", "Helens", "Marias", etc. More like Lothar, Mairyee (i.e. psychotic spellings of common names), etc. They used to give more common names but developed that syndrome, plus bad storms tend to get their names retires, i.e. there won't be a Katrina or Camille ever again. likely.

2) This one looks to be doing what most do, angle up east of Austin.  Once that high moved off to Florida, I thought it might. 
3) Rain therefore is impossible to predict because it's impossible to know where the rain bands will fall out, especially on the dry side.
4) Almost certainly not a lake filler - looks pretty certain that most of the rain will be Coastal Plain into maybe 15 miles west of Austin at most. Of course it could wobble. That's why rain could be next to nothing up to 2-3 inches around ATX. But not widespread, lakes won't see much rise.
5) Look to Cat 2 (at least) if it jogs north and hits land (say s. of Galveston) relatively later; if it hits sooner (i.e. Corpus or s.) high Cat 1. Warm waters but a little shear in the Gulf, so it's a toss-up but I think it'll easy get to 80-90 again if not hit 100. Remember this thing went from cough cough to Cat 5 in 48 hrs., though under different (i.e. mid-Atlantic) conditions.
6) Coastal Plain flooding if Beryl slows down, but so far this has been a pretty fast storm and they speed up once on land. If it stalls near the coast could be trouble, but so far it's keeping up speed (moving 12-15 mph now, decently fast for a tropical storm). Houston could see flooding if it jogs more N/NE but again, all depends on strength and speed. Right now I think minor flooding bc of its movement speed.

Will be back if any concern. For now, not really. 
 

[miguelito 11,095]

Latest drought map, FYI.

 

[Brisketexan 103,515]

very disappointing turn of events

Yet entirely predictable, and predicted.

Oh, we have a lake-saver for you. We’re just gonna deliver it about 150 miles east of where you need it. And dump all that rain on places that really don’t want it.
Because fuck you, that’s why.

[Biff Tannen 45,013]

2 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

1) They give weird, psychotic names to storms because if a storm is bad and is known for death and destruction, people with that name will always be associated with that storm.

Thanks asshole. Now I know I have a weird, psychotic name. 

[phdhorn 6,224]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Thanks asshole. Now I know I have a weird, psychotic name. 

Hurricane Asshole would be a great name.

[Herbie Hancock 7,272]

You sure?

That’s a whalecunt

[Pato del Muerto 52,036]

If Chris ended prematurely, I think we have our answer there. 

[hookemATL 11,503]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yet entirely predictable, and predicted.

Oh, we have a lake-saver for you. We’re just gonna deliver it about 150 miles east of where you need it. And dump all that rain on places that really don’t want it.
Because fuck you, that’s why.

Can we set up a system of tubes/tarps/buckets and redirect some flow our way?  You can be team lead. 

[Storm the Field 5,254]

Really no change in the last 4 updates from NHC between 1 am and 10 am.

[justhookit 4,165]

Last few updates the track has stayed pretty constant for the center to go in between Rockport and Port O’Connor. That’s good news here because Port A is jam packed with tourists and none of them seem to be leaving. We have a rental in our condo leaving tomorrow and another rental coming in tomorrow for a week. Just talked to the management company and the people are still planning on coming tomorrow. Fucking idiots.

[InkaUtexas 24,932]

17 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Latest drought map, FYI.

 

So ya mean where the hurricane is not going to hit? Damn hurricane.

[Snake Diggity 4,548]

It seems like at this point it would have to be in the extreme high end of potential outcomes for it to be very destructive.  Storm surge <5’, <10” of rain, winds <100mph.  I hate to downplay it, but it just doesn’t seem that dangerous.  I’m way more worried about getting caught in a traffic jam in the mass exodus tomorrow AM.  As far as I know they’re still doing fireworks in port Oconnor tonight.

[SizzleChest 8,092]

27 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Last few updates the track has stayed pretty constant for the center to go in between Rockport and Port O’Connor. That’s good news here because Port A is jam packed with tourists and none of them seem to be leaving. We have a rental in our condo leaving tomorrow and another rental coming in tomorrow for a week. Just talked to the management company and the people are still planning on coming tomorrow. Fucking idiots.

If you don't mind sharing, which property management company do you use?

[Fudge Nuggets 18,899]

11 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

JULY 5, 11pm - Beryl is a 60 mph tropical storm coming off the Northern Yucatan Peninsula. The 10pm forecast cone continues the north and eastward trend we've been talking about for several days now. Beryl is forecast to move into the middle TX gulf coast as a strengthening category 1 hurricane on Monday.

In depth forecast information, including forecast wind speeds, rain totals, and storm surge height in the link, here:

https://www.kiiitv.com/article/weather/hurricane/beryl-weakens-to-a-tropical-storm-over-the-yucatan-peninsula/503-030dab6a-7c6c-47aa-8077-c5dda80ddddc
 

 

You had one God damn job, Yucatan.

[Rip76 4,880]

Perfect explanation as usual.

 

[Fudge Nuggets 18,899]

55 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

1) They give weird, psychotic names to storms because if a storm is bad and is known for death and destruction, people with that name will always be associated with that storm. Hence, no "Johns", "Helens", "Marias", etc.

Dude...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria

Hurricane Maria was a deadly Category 5 hurricane that devastated the northeastern Caribbean in September 2017, particularly in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, which accounted for 2,975 of the 3,059 deaths.^[1][2] It is the deadliest and costliest hurricane to strike the island of Puerto Rico, and is the deadliest hurricane to strike the country of Dominica and the territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. The most intense tropical cyclone worldwide in 2017, Maria was the thirteenth named storm, eighth consecutive hurricane, fourth major hurricane, second Category 5 hurricane, and deadliest storm of the extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Maria was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Mitch in 1998, and the tenth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. Total monetary losses are estimated at upwards of $91.61 billion (2017 USD), mostly in Puerto Rico, ranking it as the fourth-costliest tropical cyclone on record.

[Captainant 26,902]

39 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

It seems like at this point it would have to be in the extreme high end of potential outcomes for it to be very destructive.  Storm surge <5’, <10” of rain, winds <100mph.  I hate to downplay it, but it just doesn’t seem that dangerous.  I’m way more worried about getting caught in a traffic jam in the mass exodus tomorrow AM.  As far as I know they’re still doing fireworks in port Oconnor tonight.

Yeah we decided to make tracks tonight, it's gonna be a madhouse tomorrow. I heard there's twice as many boats and folks down for the parade foolishness, and I'd bet most of em are sticking around for the fireworks tonight. A buddy coming in from the eight mile stretch said you can't see the end of the line of cars coming into to town

Alligator Head made the call and is making everyone pull their boats out of the slings by noon tomorrow, but it's gonna be a madhouse 

[phdhorn 6,224]

26 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Dude...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria

Hurricane Maria was a deadly Category 5 hurricane that devastated the northeastern Caribbean in September 2017, particularly in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, which accounted for 2,975 of the 3,059 deaths.^[1][2] It is the deadliest and costliest hurricane to strike the island of Puerto Rico, and is the deadliest hurricane to strike the country of Dominica and the territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. The most intense tropical cyclone worldwide in 2017, Maria was the thirteenth named storm, eighth consecutive hurricane, fourth major hurricane, second Category 5 hurricane, and deadliest storm of the extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Maria was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Mitch in 1998, and the tenth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. Total monetary losses are estimated at upwards of $91.61 billion (2017 USD), mostly in Puerto Rico, ranking it as the fourth-costliest tropical cyclone on record.

... and Maria was retired by the NHC in 2017 specifically because of that storm (look it up, it's on the Internet!).

They don't always get every common name, but yeah, they definitely try to use uncommon names now.  Not saying everyone walks around traumatized, but yes, definitely, that's why the names are weird or weirdly spelled - to avoid associations with people of those more common names, plus the obvious awkwardness of renaming a storm which has an infamous history. Read this from NHC Page:

Edited July 6 by phdhorn

[Bert Orange 1,094]

Fuck me if I’m wrong, but is your name Gretchen?

[justhookit 4,165]

35 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

If you don't mind sharing, which property management company do you use?

Life in Paradise. To be clear I’m got no problem with them. They seem to be the only decent management company down here anymore.

[SizzleChest 8,092]

Just now, justhookit said:

Life in Paradise. To be clear I’m got no problem with them. They seem to be the only decent management company down here anymore.

Agree. Steve runs a tight shop.

[t_eight 146]

11 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

... and Maria was retired by the NHC in 2017 (look it up, it's on the Internet!).

[atomheartbevo 88,913]

14 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Fuck me if I’m wrong, but is your name Gretchen?

Wait, are you talking about Stretchin’ Gretchen?

[Zonahorn 7,921]

oops

Edited July 6 by Zonahorn

[atomheartbevo 88,913]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

if a storm is bad and is known for death and destruction, people with that name will always be associated with that storm. Hence, no "Johns", "Helens", "Marias", etc. More like Lothar,

Any storm named Lothar will come ashore at Corpus and make a beeline for the Hill Country, to be with its people, and ir will have seen much, and done much.
 

 

[tx 3 putt 75,227]

[tx 3 putt 75,227]

It’ll move towards Houston if anything 

[tx 3 putt 75,227]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

Last few updates the track has stayed pretty constant for the center to go in between Rockport and Port O’Connor. That’s good news here because Port A is jam packed with tourists and none of them seem to be leaving. We have a rental in our condo leaving tomorrow and another rental coming in tomorrow for a week. Just talked to the management company and the people are still planning on coming tomorrow. Fucking idiots.

aranasas county is under voluntary evacuation ?

[Rip76 4,880]

Just sayin'

[justhookit 4,165]

11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

aranasas county is under voluntary evacuation ?

And Nueces. Just encouraging visitors, people in flood prone areas, boats/rv’s etc. to leave early. Unless something changes this is not going to be a big deal here. Very small category 1, possibly 2.

[justhookit 4,165]

15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

It’ll move towards Houston if anything 

Last update shifted it a few miles west and away from Houston. I doubt they will have an exact landfall track before tomorrow morning.

[tx 3 putt 75,227]

6 minutes ago, justhookit said:

And Nueces. Just encouraging visitors, people in flood prone areas, boats/rv’s etc. to leave early. Unless something changes this is not going to be a big deal here. Very small category 1, possibly 2.

ok that makes sense 

Edited July 6 by tx 3 putt

[tx 3 putt 75,227]

6 minutes ago, justhookit said:

And Nueces. Just encouraging visitors, people in flood prone areas, boats/rv’s etc. to leave early. Unless something changes this is not going to be a big deal here. Very small category 1, possibly 2.

that little a slot between austwell and the bridge. Stay east of refugio and there’s nothing until goliad 

I’d be ok with it wiping out corrupt Refugio law enforcement 

Edited July 6 by tx 3 putt

[The Ace of Aces 4,946]

13 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Just sayin'

Harvey was basically stationary. Beryl will be moving quite quickly. These storms aren’t alike. 

Edited July 6 by The Ace of Aces

[Rip76 4,880]

1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Harvey was basically stationary. Beryl will be moving quite quickly. These strains aren’t alike. 

They are not.  Correct