2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Okie State 3746]

Those saying flood insurance is cheap likely haven't seen the full impact of the new calculations being used. My house is almost $2K/year and we are in Flood Zone X. We still have it, but that's 4X what we used to pay.

[ballrific 215]

Not going to find them there unless there is a hurricane. Oh wait. Yeah, go on the trip.

[Mother mopar 3284]

The new issue is that looks like they are initializing the storm way too far north. The current vorticity seems to imply a center that is off the SE coast of Cuba, not the NE as shown. That would make a pretty huge difference.
A lot of seasoned mets are calling this out as well. This may have a big shift on the next update.

It's going to be interesting to see the next updates. The hook, IMO, is but more aggressive as I thought I would be more N/NW hook. The Bermuda High is either retreating or the trough is grabbing it sooner or both.

[texasdago 7544]

15 hours ago, ballrific said:

so is my Puerto Rico/DR visit furked next week?

Just be happy you're not going to Aruba... otherwise you definitely would be screwed.

@BearSchlong better to battle for that insurance money (a - early bird/claim gets the worm and b - squeaky wheel gets the grease... trust me) than to beg for FEMA scraps

BTW, not saying flood insurance is cheap... in fact 4x more than before sucks buuuuut... 

 

Edited August 2 by texasdago

[Zonahorn 8071]

 

[Captainant 27239]

16 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

[tx 3 putt 75921]

 

[Zonahorn 8071]

 

[GreenspointTexas 9541]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Fucking christ, now West Texas is getting a hurricane!!!?!?!?!?

[tx 3 putt 75921]

7 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Fucking christ, now West Texas is getting a hurricane!!!?!?!?!?

They need the rain !

[Sbbruin 21690]

5 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

 

[BearSchlong 8072]

Just be happy you're not going to Aruba... otherwise you definitely would be screwed.
[mention=398]BearSchlong[/mention] better to battle for that insurance money (a - early bird/claim gets the worm and b - squeaky wheel gets the grease... trust me) than to beg for FEMA scraps
BTW, not saying flood insurance is cheap... in fact 4x more than before sucks buuuuut... 
 

The name of the insurer that sold me my policy through USAA? Neptune.

https://neptuneflood.com/?source=sgjte7BOCm0S00BBtLKcSQ%3D%3D&payload=google-Quote&gbraid=0AAAAADCYH9BjZcwgeMfxR4pDWNn-MWoq-&gclid=Cj0KCQjwh7K1BhCZARIsAKOrVqEwV1F113tb5ON-UbOAUj0glzEYUxoiquwEtG78Mjk47FdZhWlNwYUaAoajEALw_wcB&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Quote

Apparently the reason my policy was around $600 rather than $1k is because they actually calculate premiums based on coordinates vs zones. I would love to know what comparable coverage costs for a dwelling flooded twice (Harvey, Imelda), for example the corner of Sheridan and Gladys in Beaumont.

[Mother mopar 3284]

The name of the insurer that sold me my policy through USAA? Neptune.

https://neptuneflood.com/?source=sgjte7BOCm0S00BBtLKcSQ%3D%3D&payload=google-Quote&gbraid=0AAAAADCYH9BjZcwgeMfxR4pDWNn-MWoq-&gclid=Cj0KCQjwh7K1BhCZARIsAKOrVqEwV1F113tb5ON-UbOAUj0glzEYUxoiquwEtG78Mjk47FdZhWlNwYUaAoajEALw_wcB&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Quote

Apparently the reason my policy was around $600 rather than $1k is because they actually calculate premiums based on coordinates vs zones. I would love to know what comparable coverage costs for a dwelling flooded twice (Harvey, Imelda), for example the corner of Sheridan and Gladys in Beaumont.

I've got Neptune as well here in Florida and it's very reasonable for flood insurance.

[Mother mopar 3284]

Latest

[InkaUtexas 25271]

Heck of a shift west. I was supposed to go to Gainesville and help a friend fix up some of his gardens. Well guess that will wait.

[SurlyGator 856]

Track already creeping west toward Houston.  Sorry guys!

 

 

 

(Too soon?)

[Zonahorn 8071]

Organizing and intensifying

[Hate 20087]

GFS has a hurricane into Houston in 10 days. It’s done this now for a couple of model runs. Way too early, but I hope we don’t see any other models start to jump on board. For reference, Beryl was 979 millibars when it made landfall.

 

Edited August 3 by Hate

[Zonahorn 8071]

10 minutes ago, Hate said:

GFS has a hurricane into Houston in 10 days. It’s done this now for a couple of model runs. Way too early, but I hope we don’t see any other models start to jump on board. For reference, Beryl was 979 millibars when it made landfall.

 

That's for the wave trekking through the Caribbean next week. That is something we'll have to keep an eye on.

[Colonel Sanders 1330]

Looking at those GFS model runs, Debbie is going to just stall out over Georgia and South Carolina for a couple of days.  

[Mother mopar 3284]

GFS has a hurricane into Houston in 10 days. It’s done this now for a couple of model runs. Way too early, but I hope we don’t see any other models start to jump on board. For reference, Beryl was 979 millibars when it made landfall.
 

That is the wave behind Debbie?

[Updawg 2253]

Looking at those GFS model runs, Debbie is going to just stall out over Georgia and South Carolina for a couple of days.  

Not good for South Carolina

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2627]

2 hours ago, Hate said:

GFS has a hurricane into Houston in 10 days. It’s done this now for a couple of model runs. Way too early, but I hope we don’t see any other models start to jump on board. For reference, Beryl was 979 millibars when it made landfall.

 

Yeah that would fucking suck. 

[Hate 20087]

I've got soft starts being installed on my AC units, a transfer switch being installed, and I bought a tri-fuel 13k generator that should arrive next week.  I'll be prepared. 

 

[tx 3 putt 75921]

4 hours ago, Hate said:

I've got soft starts being installed on my AC units, a transfer switch being installed, and I bought a tri-fuel 13k generator that should arrive next week.  I'll be prepared. 

 

I’ll be ready to evacuate to your house

[Hate 20087]

I’ll have bourbon and weed. 

[Newdoc 3429]

12 hours ago, Hate said:

Way too early

The GFS is infamous for apocalyptic forecasting that far out. Then it often backs off or makes a drops the storm all together. But you’re right, consistency of the forecast after several model runs bears watching.

[Captainant 27239]

7 hours ago, Hate said:

I’ll have bourbon and weed. 

The good ol dank n sour

[Stella Link 534]

15 hours ago, Hate said:

GFS has a hurricane into Houston in 10 days. It’s done this now for a couple of model runs. Way too early, but I hope we don’t see any other models start to jump on board. For reference, Beryl was 979 millibars when it made landfall.

 

MODS:  Please escort this user out the back door.  Thank you.

 

 

[Bevo&Pevo 4999]

15 hours ago, Hate said:

GFS has a hurricane into Houston in 10 days. It’s done this now for a couple of model runs. Way too early, but I hope we don’t see any other models start to jump on board. For reference, Beryl was 979 millibars when it made landfall.

 

Nothing against ya' bro' and I do appreciate the update, but I do so hope this doesn't happen.  Definitely, something to keep eyes on if Levi is updating already.

[Hate 20087]

I’m in the Houston area, so I don’t want it to happen either. I was without power for a week after Beryl.  A Cat 2 or 3 on that path would be disastrous for SE Texas. People are still recovering from Beryl. 

[tokamak 6345]

Yeah I’m sending my wife and kids inland if that happens. We ain’t doing this shit again a month after Beryl. 

[tx 3 putt 75921]

2 hours ago, tokamak said:

Yeah I’m sending my wife and kids inland if that happens. We ain’t doing this shit again a month after Beryl. 

After my deracho experience, my bailing out 100% of the time 

[tx 3 putt 75921]

 

[Mother mopar 3284]

New moon doesn't help with all this flooding and Debbie

[tx 3 putt 75921]

 

[tx 3 putt 75921]

 

[GreenspointTexas 9541]

Welcome to the back of the bus, Florida

[Bevo 13468]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Can someone grab a few buckets and bring some of the good stuff back to Lake Travis?

[tx 3 putt 75921]

Just now, Bevo said:

Can someone grab a few buckets and bring some of the good stuff back to Lake Travis?

40 trillion seems like a lot 

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Can someone grab a few buckets and bring some of the good stuff back to Lake Travis?

40 trillion seems like a lot 

[tx 3 putt 75921]

[GreenspointTexas 9541]

8 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

40 trillion seems like a lot 

40 trillion seems like a lot 

40 trillion would make it the wettest atlantic hurricane ever. Harvey was like 30 trillon gallons iirc

[Mother mopar 3284]

Buddy texted me from Savanah today, they're expecting 25" of rain out of this....just nuts.

[BamaATL 16592]

5 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

Buddy texted me from Savanah today, they're expecting 25" of rain out of this....just nuts.

People there are fucked.  Much of Savannah is pretty poor, and the likelihood that even the wealthy keep flood insurance is going to be slim.  

[Bert Orange 1115]

I’m just going to ignore the GFS and focus on the Euro. Because I just can’t again. 

[tx 3 putt 75921]

 

Edited August 5 by tx 3 putt

[hookemATL 11582]

17 hours ago, BamaATL said:

People there are fucked.  Much of Savannah is pretty poor, and the likelihood that even the wealthy keep flood insurance is going to be slim.  

Someone strap some pontoons on Paula Deen and take the Forest Gump bench to higher ground!

[tokamak 6345]

17 hours ago, BamaATL said:

People there are fucked.  Much of Savannah is pretty poor, and the likelihood that even the wealthy keep flood insurance is going to be slim.  

I've never set foot in Savannah in my life, but looking at the geography on Google Maps, skipping the flood insurance seems like...a choice. It's basically sitting on/between two estuaries.

[texasdago 7544]

10 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I've never set foot in Savannah in my life, but looking at the geography on Google Maps, skipping the flood insurance seems like...a choice. It's basically sitting on/between two estuaries.

"But they don't live in flood zones and didn't flood with Florence"

[Captainant 27239]

19 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I've never set foot in Savannah in my life, but looking at the geography on Google Maps, skipping the flood insurance seems like...a choice. It's basically sitting on/between two estuaries.

You could say that skipping on flood insurance in Savannah is.... Bananas