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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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2 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Quotes now (south of Houston) are all saying I'm looking at February install if I sign contract now...

Once I saw the news about a potential storm in the gulf, I called and moved up my installation. It will be installed next Friday. 

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4 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Would have been nice to have today. Our neighborhood power "blipped" every 5-7 minutes for a couple hours until Centerpoint could find the faulty equipment.

Generator won't help with that. It's on about a 7 second delay before it starts and about 10 seconds before it starts delivering power. The blips are too fast and would be damaging to the generator to start and stop so much

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Just now, Catpfish said:

Generator won't help with that. It's on about a 7 second delay before it starts and about 10 seconds before it starts delivering power. The blips are too fast and would be damaging to the generator to start and stop so much

yeah, I'd just have flipped to generator until they fixed things.

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3 minutes ago, Catpfish said:

Generator won't help with that. It's on about a 7 second delay before it starts and about 10 seconds before it starts delivering power. The blips are too fast and would be damaging to the generator to start and stop so much

You can manually keep it on generator power using the switch at the ATS.

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24 minutes ago, royiv said:

Welcome to the club. The peace of mind is awesome.

And this is what finally got me on board. I travel quite a bit now and I know my wife and son would not be able to roll out the generator and connect it.  I also got a 7 year warranty which is nice. 

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I understand that. Just curious how you decide when to do that and how long you run it...after a couple of flickers, after 30 minutes of it?  How do you know when the situation has resolved? 

I live in the country so I don't really have neighbors to judge the status of things

 

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12 hours ago, tokamak said:

GFS has a big boy in the gulf in 10 days. Something to keep an eye on.

image.thumb.png.1f91c96110f628fa3a7b587777dfb664.png

Sounds about right, I leave Houston tomorrow and come back on 9/29, looks like it could be a grand old time. I am hoping that some weather system pushes it over to Louisiana or Mississippi, or why not Florida.

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1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Sounds about right, I leave Houston tomorrow and come back on 9/29, looks like it could be a grand old time. I am hoping that some weather system pushes it over to Louisiana or Mississippi, or why not Florida.

Latest runs have it in the Florida panhandle. 10 days is an eternity. 

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13 hours ago, Hate said:

lol…City of Houston sucks. My 26kw generator was purchased yesterday and will be installed next Friday. 

My install guy has been saying the same thing out loud and under his breath for months. 

12 hours ago, HoustonHorn said:
13 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:
My generator's final approval with the city of houston is tomorrow. Fuck yourself, hurricanes. 

 

Mine was approved yesterday. Derecho and Beryl finished off my trees. Bring it on.

We have one tree left sitting like a time bomb in our backyard. But fuck it. Let’s roll. 

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This is the first time all models have aligned on the landing spot, Apalachicola area. Last night landing was PCB area, so the shift east is welcome news on my end.

Models still disagree on strength, GFS shows cat 4 all others Cat 2, but Gulf gonna do what it does.

Thoughts on Briggs and Sratton generators from the folks who chose those over generac. Prices are very similar.

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1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

A local weather guy here just posted a comment that the ingredients are there for this thing to explode into a cat 5 really quickly.  Panhandle and western FLA better buckle up.  

image.thumb.png.6e5e4af1c25c9e1acd8472a4aef8d1a6.png

The potential is certainly there. I can’t remember the last time model intensity guidance was this aggressive.

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9 hours ago, Mother mopar said:

This is the first time all models have aligned on the landing spot, Apalachicola area. Last night landing was PCB area, so the shift east is welcome news on my end.

Models still disagree on strength, GFS shows cat 4 all others Cat 2, but Gulf gonna do what it does.

Thoughts on Briggs and Sratton generators from the folks who chose those over generac. Prices are very similar.

Parts are pretty much everywhere and fairly easy to work on.  B&S have been around for a long time.  

 

If I lived anywhere between Destin and Tampa, I'd packing photos, meds, and pets.  

Edited by Bevo&Pevo
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16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Generator dudes:  I should know this, given my last job, but it's been almost a decade.  What's the fuel cost per kW-hr to run your generator versus the grid supply cost (probably in the range of $.11-$0.14 per kW-hr)?

I ran my 5500w portable Firman 24 hours a day for a week during Beryl, and my bill went from $30-ish to $80-ish.

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1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

image.thumb.png.6e5e4af1c25c9e1acd8472a4aef8d1a6.png

The potential is certainly there. I can’t remember the last time model intensity guidance was this aggressive.

HWRF
PEAK: 930 mb @ 72 hrs | 98 kt @ 57 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1005 / 35 - TS
06 / 1001 / 51
12 / 999 / 43
18 / 998 / 51
24 / 993 / 51
30 / 987 / 51
36 / 980 / 58
42 / 970 / 59
48 / 957 / 78 - C1
54 / 945 / 91
60 / 935 / 91 - C2
66 / 934 / 87
72 / 930 / 96 - landfall
78 / 940 / 64

HMON
PEAK: 918 mb @ 84 hrs | 124 kt @ 75 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1003 / 27
06 / 1001 / 37 - TS
12 / 1001 / 35
18 / 997 / 44
24 / 994 / 46
30 / 984 / 60
36 / 981 / 58
42 / 973 / 63
48 / 964 / 80 - C1
54 / 959 / 87 - C2
60 / 953 / 76
66 / 941 / 104 - C3
72 / 933 / 121 - C4
78 / 925 / 122
84 / 918 / 120 - landfall
90 / 956 / 62

HAFS-A
PEAK: 899 mb @ 75 hrs | 162 kt @ 75 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1003 / 31 - TD
06 / 1000 / 43 - TS
12 / 998 / 45
18 / 991 / 57
24 / 987 / 51
30 / 983 / 57
36 / 979 / 59
42 / 972 / 65 - C1
48 / 954 / 105 - C3
54 / 943 / 110
60 / 925 / 134 - C4
66 / 907 / 146 - C5
72 / 899 / 155
78 / 900 / 159 - landfall
84 / 922 / 81

HAFS-B
PEAK: 888 mb @ 72 hrs | 159 kt @ 69 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1004 / 30 - TD
06 / 998 / 46 - TS
12 / 1000 / 45
18 / 990 / 56
24 / 988 / 49
30 / 985 / 55
36 / 978 / 55
42 / 963 / 77 - C1
48 / 948 / 95 - C2
54 / 941 / 92
60 / 924 / 124 - C4
66 / 903 / 157 - C5
72 / 888 / 155
78 / 901 / 134 - landfall
84 / 920 / 102

Blend
PEAK: 913 mb @ 72 hrs | 132 kt @ 72 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1004 / 31 - TD
06 / 1000 / 44 - TS
12 / 1000 / 42
18 / 994 / 52
24 / 991 / 49
30 / 985 / 56
36 / 980 / 58
42 / 970 / 66 - C1
48 / 956 / 90 - C2
54 / 947 / 95
60 / 934 / 106 - C3
66 / 921 / 124 - C4
72 / 913 / 132
78 / 917 / 120 - landfall
84 / 932 / 87

 

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https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=120023&start=20
They're weren't forecasting a category 5/ Hurricane Gilbert redux. The fact its a possibility is very alarming
For sure, o belive it was going to be a TS
What I meant was both formed as a result of the CAG, simliar paths (ish) as both got picked up from a front.

Ian was another example.
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15 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Generator dudes:  I should know this, given my last job, but it's been almost a decade.  What's the fuel cost per kW-hr to run your generator versus the grid supply cost (probably in the range of $.11-$0.14 per kW-hr)?

The rule of thumb I’ve heard repeated is that it’s basically 35 - 40 bucks a day for a 1 story house with everything running. 

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So probably 4X the cost of grid power, give or take?  (Plus the cost of the generator itself.)

I don’t know what rates, distribution costs run in Austin, or average bills so hard for me to say. 4x might be low. If my bill is around 250 a month in the summer that’s about 8-9 bucks a day…so yeah 4x. 

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