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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
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HouTex

HouTex 1866

Posted
Posted 
From the latest 9/24 4:00 CT official forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 19.7N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 20.4N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 21.7N  86.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 23.7N  86.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 27.0N  84.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 31.5N  84.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  27/1800Z 35.5N  84.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  28/1800Z 38.2N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Zepol87
Zepol87

I was supposed to fly to Tampa today for the week but decided to say fuck that and went to our Vegas office. Got a bitch ass email from my director in Denver who is a trumper telling me I didn’t get a

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30185

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Below is a link I stole from storm 2K. It’s from the 2022 article “Hurricane Spaghetti Models: Four things you need to know to track storms like the pros.”


It's pretty educational, short and worth anyone's 5 minutes to read - or link for future reference.  Good stuff. 

https://weather.com/science/weather-exp ... -hurricane

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Grimas

Grimas 669

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So probably 4X the cost of grid power, give or take?  (Plus the cost of the generator itself.)

Does anyone care on the cost at that point?  Lights/fans/internet/a/c vs none?  I don't care about the cost and more about not sweating my balls off for a few days...  :)

Edited by Grimas
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45890

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11 hours ago, Grimas said:

Does anyone care on the cost at that point?  Lights/fans/internet/a/c vs none?  I don't care about the cost and more about not sweating my balls off for a few days...  :)

I didn't elaborate, but I was mostly curious to see if a generator would be a good permanent power source compared to the grid.  The answer is "no".

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48058

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I didn't elaborate, but I was mostly curious to see if a generator would be a good permanent power source compared to the grid.  The answer is "no".

FWIW I assumed that's what you were getting at just by the nature of the questions you were asking...

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30185

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Checking the latest runs. It looks like Helene is slightly east of the national hurricane center track and the consensus I see is somewhere around Steinhatchee, Florida - maybe 50-60 miles east of the NHC landfall prediction. 

Mind you, if it wants to go directly over Tallahassee, that’s cool with me

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Rip76

Rip76 4925

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15 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Checking the latest runs. It looks like Helene is slightly east of the national hurricane center track and the consensus I see is somewhere around Steinhatchee, Florida - maybe 50-60 miles east of the NHC landfall prediction. 

Mind you, if it wants to go directly over Tallahassee, that’s cool with me

Just reading this as well.

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Rip76

Rip76 4925

Posted
Posted

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3318

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If you haven't used zoomearth/storms.com  it's legit and allows you to zoom in to anything over storms.  Based on its looks like moved 20 miles west. Saw Tyndall AFB is doing voluntary evacuations. 

 

Whatever happens this hurricane is going to be huge from a width perspective. Mother nature is truly breathtaking at times, even her darkside. 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76873

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1 minute ago, Mother mopar said:

If you haven't used zoomearth/storms.com  it's legit and allows you to zoom in to anything over storms.  Based on its looks like moved 20 miles west. Saw Tyndall AFB is doing voluntary evacuations. 

 

Whatever happens this hurricane is going to be huge from a width perspective. Mother nature is truly breathtaking at times, even her darkside. 

 

a monster is coming 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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So it hasn't rained here pretty much all summer, and now between Helene, and a current storm system, we are apt to get between 8 inches and a foot of rainfall, what could go wrong?  Obviously that is nothing compared to what the folks in the panhandle are going to have to deal with, so no real complaints, just gonna be wild.  

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30185

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, locodos said:

RIP the dream

 

Jesus!

1)  Cat 3 “the floor” of intensity, and may be stronger

2)   There will be little or no diminishing of wind or storm surge prior to landfall from whatever category exists before it hits

3)   10-15 feet storm surge at landfall, with water pushed into a cone shape geography, causing water to rise/flood miles inland

4)   Tampa Bay to get storm surge 5-8 feet.   If you don’t know the area, that will cause flooding in  many low lying areas of Tampa

Save your prayers for Mons Venus

Edit:  I just saw that a 24-hour rainfall total of 8.60 inches (218.4 mm) was recently reported in Embalse Herradura, Pinar del Rio, Cuba, by the Meteorological Service of Cuba.

Yeah, major flooding in ain’t-no-global-warming states could be an issue as she goes North.  

Edited by Gatorubet
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48058

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

That stall-out in the forecast over Tennessee and Kentucky looks Harvey-esque which....if y'all recall.....was not bueno.

Yeah. But Harvey was no bueno becuase it stalled for a week, and it was half on the coast and half in the gulf, so it never weakened or dissipated. Sure, that's a lot of rain in TN, but man, it won't be like Harvey.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah. But Harvey was no bueno becuase it stalled for a week, and it was half on the coast and half in the gulf, so it never weakened or dissipated. Sure, that's a lot of rain in TN, but man, it won't be like Harvey.

It could be a real shit show, my step sister lives in Nashville, and last time this sort of thing happened much of downtown flooded about 8 feet.  That was about 10 years ago or so, but yeah, its was bad.  

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SurlyGator

SurlyGator 865

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah. But Harvey was no bueno becuase it stalled for a week, and it was half on the coast and half in the gulf, so it never weakened or dissipated. Sure, that's a lot of rain in TN, but man, it won't be like Harvey.

From your fingertips to TheBabyJesus' ears

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Rip76

Rip76 4925

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It could be a real shit show, my step sister lives in Nashville, and last time this sort of thing happened much of downtown flooded about 8 feet.  That was about 10 years ago or so, but yeah, its was bad.  

Is this when Keith Urban or actually a few musicians lost quitars, etc?

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105074

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7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah. But Harvey was no bueno becuase it stalled for a week, and it was half on the coast and half in the gulf, so it never weakened or dissipated. Sure, that's a lot of rain in TN, but man, it won't be like Harvey.

Yeah, the fuel source won't be there (warm gulf water), but a stalled out tropical system parked someplace for several days can be damned near as devastating in rainfall totals.

Of course, pre-Harvey, the heaviest single-event rainfall event was well inland (Thrall, TX) from a stalled tropical system.  If a system shows up with a bunch of rain to dump, and then parks over you....you're fooked.  The difference between 30 inches of rain over a coupla days and 40 inches doesn't make a shit.  Everything that could flood will flood.  Sure as hell hope that doesn't happen there.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30185

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

4)   Tampa Bay to get storm surge 5-8 feet.   If you don’t know the area, that will cause flooding in  many low lying areas of Tampa

Save your prayers for Mons Venus 

Possible good news for our Tampa friends: Too soon to tell, but the current guesstimate of arrival of the storm surge happens during low tide in Tampa.   That can be a 2 to 3 foot reduction, which could be huge.

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texasdago

texasdago 7568

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah. But Harvey was no bueno becuase it stalled for a week, and it was half on the coast and half in the gulf, so it never weakened or dissipated. Sure, that's a lot of rain in TN, but man, it won't be like Harvey.

If there's anything I've learned over the past few years is never underestimate these storms.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30185

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19 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

more importantly, will georgia/ alabama be played as scheduled?

More importantly-er, will the distracted and understandably unfocused FSU juggernaut lose their fourth game this season to SMU (after Helene says “hey!” to Tallahassee?)

 Go Mustangs!

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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4 hours ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

We have an exchange student from Spain staying with us. He and 20 other Spanish teens and two teachers are flying from Austin to Madrid with a layover in Atlanta Friday morning. They're not making that connection on time, right?

Well, yeah, but that has shit to do with the weather.  

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