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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


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7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

All I need is a blue shed….. and a scuba tank….. and another scuba tank…. and some more scuba tanks…

IMG_2427.gif.3574bb47864c3e3e85535731adaefb61.gif

 

The terribly sad thing is that there are going to be a whole lotta people who will not evacuate.  I think I shared the story before, but one of my assistant scout leaders was a military fireman - and a couple years after Katrina he told me that he drove to his father-in-law’s single-story home on the lakefront to get them to evacuate.  He refused to do so.    He kept explaining the storm surge predictions and how his house might be underwater how is grandchildren would miss him if he passed away and the storm.  Nothing worked.    The guy told me he was still haunted by the last thing he told his father-in-law, who would just told him to fuck off and leave him alone.  He replied, “Fine. I hope you drown in your living room, you old asshole.”

He did.  

Unfortunately, this will be playing out in Florida tomorrow.  My Louisiana experience is that getting old people to leave their homes when hurricane is approaching is near impossible - and if they can’t bring their pets, it is absolutely impossible. Hotels making exceptions for hurricanes and letting people bring their pets will save lives.

I think in situations like this, most brands have relaxed the pet policy.  Nonetheless, people will not leave, I recall last year, even with the threat of massive storm surge, they still couldn't get people to leave or go to shelters, where pets are definitely welcomed.  If I remember correctly, last year the shelters reported at or under 50% usage in most cases.  I get that riding it out in a shelter sucks, but they are designed to quite literally save your life, and it's one thing Florida actually has right.  Unfortunately, people get scared for their property and stuff, or just plain stubborn; and ultimately this can kill you.  

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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

I think in situations like this, most brands have relaxed the pet policy.  Nonetheless, people will not leave, I recall last year, even with the threat of massive storm surge, they still couldn't get people to leave or go to shelters, where pets are definitely welcomed.  If I remember correctly, last year the shelters reported at or under 50% usage in most cases.  I get that riding it out in a shelter sucks, but they are designed to quite literally save your life, and it's one thing Florida actually has right.  Unfortunately, people get scared for their property and stuff, or just plain stubborn; and ultimately this can kill you.  

for some reason, hurricanes always happen at the end of the month when people on fixed incomes  and government checks don’t have spare cash at the end of the month. this is exactly the time when they need to leave but may not be able to buy gas - and they may not have a car that works.  They may want to stay and take care of some disabled neighbor who won’t go, so they stay.   there are so many reasons why people don’t do it and it just breaks my heart.

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1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

for some reason, hurricanes always happen at the end of the month when people on fixed incomes  and government checks don’t have spare cash at the end of the month. this is exactly the time when they need to leave but may not be able to buy gas - and they may not have a car that works.  They may want to stay and take care of some disabled neighbor who won’t go, so they stay.   there are so many reasons why people don’t do it and it just breaks my heart.

It's pretty awful, the other thing is last year on the island they were offering free rides, gas, etc; and still people stayed.  The sad truth, some people won't leave under any circumstances.  It reminds me of that guy with the cabin at Mt St. Helens, they tried like hell to get him to leave, and of course, he refused.  Thousands of years from now he will be the modern version of Pompei.  

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49 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

All I need is a blue shed….. and a scuba tank….. and another scuba tank…. and some more scuba tanks…

IMG_2427.gif.3574bb47864c3e3e85535731adaefb61.gif

 

The terribly sad thing is that there are going to be a whole lotta people who will not evacuate.  I think I shared the story before, but one of my assistant scout leaders was a military fireman - and a couple years after Katrina he told me that he drove to his father-in-law’s single-story home on the lakefront to get them to evacuate.  He refused to do so.    He kept explaining the storm surge predictions and how his house might be underwater how is grandchildren would miss him if he passed away and the storm.  Nothing worked.    The guy told me he was still haunted by the last thing he told his father-in-law, who would just told him to fuck off and leave him alone.  He replied, “Fine. I hope you drown in your living room, you old asshole.”

He did.  

Unfortunately, this will be playing out in Florida tomorrow.  My Louisiana experience is that getting old people to leave their homes when hurricane is approaching is near impossible - and if they can’t bring their pets, it is absolutely impossible. Hotels making exceptions for hurricanes and letting people bring their pets will save lives.

wow. did they find the FIL in the living room or was he washed away? thats wild 

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Helene should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that will be very conducive for strengthening. The system is expected to traverse the Loop Current, which has especially high oceanic heat content. This, along with fairly low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to lower- tropospheric air mass, should likely result in rapid intensification before landfall. The official forecast continues to call for the hurricane to reach category 4 status tomorrow. It should be noted that the HAFS-A and HAFS-B regional hurricane models show even more intensification than indicated here. - Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

So Sayeth the NHC.  Helene just hawk tuah’d the last dry air and is on her way to rapid intensification.  A couple posts back I said that Levi gave his opinion that the storm would not lose strength prior to landfall. That is scary as shit. 

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3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

IMG_3409.png.1a9309b11355c018ef8ea30b51929a32.png

wow

Not to rub salt in old wounds, the good news is when I was out for dinner earlier the GA Power had crews staged everywhere, must have seen 50 of them, so they are clearly expecting a shitshow even this far north of Atlanta.  The other good news is that during times like this, the Southern Company can rally crews from Gulf Power, Alabama Power, GA Power, etc.  They do as well as possible during this in my estimation and deserve tremendous credit for it.  

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Yep. One of the clients I support is moving their FEMA support team to Georgia tonight. I know we joke about FEMA, but the first groups in, those who direct what is really needed, do a pretty good job.

I am pissed since I used to have that job and only got to deploy a few times. I asked if I could go, but nope, contract does not start until the first.

This storm is going to be a beast and the turn left adds another issue. Lot of water going into the river basins.

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2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep. One of the clients I support is moving their FEMA support team to Georgia tonight. I know we joke about FEMA, but the first groups in, those who direct what is really needed, do a pretty good job.

I am pissed since I used to have that job and only got to deploy a few times. I asked if I could go, but nope, contract does not start until the first.

This storm is going to be a beast and the turn left adds another issue. Lot of water going into the river basins.

With it being as dry as it's been this summer in this area, I'm imagining the ground has been so hard much the water is going to pretty much run off immediately, into said tributaries, rivers, and eventually basins.  We are going to have flooding problems and from the looks of it big ones.  Worse, the flood control lakes haven't been drained down of yet (at least not the one next to me), so I'm sure that could only compound matters.  This came on so quickly even if they started drawing them down a few days ago I don't think it will have been enough.  

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15 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

With it being as dry as it's been this summer in this area, I'm imagining the ground has been so hard much the water is going to pretty much run off immediately, into said tributaries, rivers, and eventually basins.  We are going to have flooding problems and from the looks of it big ones.  Worse, the flood control lakes haven't been drained down of yet (at least not the one next to me), so I'm sure that could only compound matters.  This came on so quickly even if they started drawing them down a few days ago I don't think it will have been enough.  

I'm guessing y'all don't have any HEB trucks waiting to stand by where you're at. How do Publix or whatever other grocery store chains that operate in your neck of the woods respond to natural disasters? 

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5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I'm guessing y'all don't have any HEB trucks waiting to stand by where you're at. How do Publix or whatever other grocery store chains that operate in your neck of the woods respond to natural disasters? 

Well, to be honest we don't have this sort of situation very often.  I recall a hurricane about 30 years ago being a pretty big problem, and the blizzard of 93, beyond that I can't think of it anything in the recent past.  I was only 13-14 when both of those things happened, so I don't really recall it being a huge problem; in most cases power was restored fairly quickly from what I remember.  I think this it's unlikely that major areas with stores like that will be heavily impacted or impacted for very long (most of that is near major transmission lines, and if damaged or down those would take top priority).  The bigger issue as I see it is the flooding, combined with the amount of downed trees in non major thorough fares.  Once flooding starts, it's pretty much the shits until it subsides, and nothing much anyone can do, with the trees, many if not most households have chainsaws, so yeah, community action!  (I have 5 chainsaws, weird story but 2 of them were my granddads I inherited).  

The best news is, in my experience, generally in this sort of situation people are on their best behavior and generally work together to try to get things back to normal as best as possible and as quickly as possible.  You know, that way we can all go back to our day to day of bitching about each other and generally being pricks.   

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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Well, to be honest we don't have this sort of situation very often.  I recall a hurricane about 30 years ago being a pretty big problem, and the blizzard of 93, beyond that I can't think of it anything in the recent past.  I was only 13-14 when both of those things happened, so I don't really recall it being a huge problem; in most cases power was restored fairly quickly from what I remember.  I think this it's unlikely that major areas with stores like that will be heavily impacted or impacted for very long (most of that is near major transmission lines, and if damaged or down those would take top priority).  The bigger issue as I see it is the flooding, combined with the amount of downed trees in non major thorough fares.  Once flooding starts, it's pretty much the shits until it subsides, and nothing much anyone can do, with the trees, many if not most households have chainsaws, so yeah, community action!  (I have 5 chainsaws, weird story but 2 of them were my granddads I inherited).  

The best news is, in my experience, generally in this sort of situation people are on their best behavior and generally work together to try to get things back to normal as best as possible and as quickly as possible.  You know, that way we can all go back to our day to day of bitching about each other and generally being pricks.   

I kind of get it.

Knock on wood, but I've never been in a similar situation unless you're talking about the Snowpocalypse we endured in Austin a few years ago when we had no electricity and had to shovel snow into our toilet tanks. Fortunately, other than burst pipes and fallen tree limbs, there wasn't too much trauma other than the cold isolation at the tail end of the pandemic.

Having grown up in West Texas and living in Austin for about 27 years (120+ miles from the coast as the crow flies), hurricane situations remain beyond my personal experience, but I completely understand the waiting game, which is what this is at this point. I'm sure almost everyone is feeling fairly helpless about how bad it will end up being and is looking at baseline survival strategies. Personally, I'd get the fuck out, but I also understand that many are wedded too much to their personal Alamos.

The HEB comment was more directed toward a private entity waiting in the wings to swoop in and take care of affected areas. They're akin to a private-sector FEMA, ready to bring in whatever is needed for emergencies like this.

I'm not a praying man, but I'll keep my fingers crossed that damage and loss of life are minimized and simply hope as many folks as possible have enough sense to get the fuck out of the way.

Godspeed to you all.

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5 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Not to rub salt in old wounds, the good news is when I was out for dinner earlier the GA Power had crews staged everywhere, must have seen 50 of them, so they are clearly expecting a shitshow even this far north of Atlanta.  The other good news is that during times like this, the Southern Company can rally crews from Gulf Power, Alabama Power, GA Power, etc.  They do as well as possible during this in my estimation and deserve tremendous credit for it.  

If I were guessing, I'd say Duke and Pike both have crews at the ready.  Good luck Florida.

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7 hours ago, bolverk said:

I'm guessing y'all don't have any HEB trucks waiting to stand by where you're at. How do Publix or whatever other grocery store chains that operate in your neck of the woods respond to natural disasters

200w.gif?cid=6c09b952y1cf1hy4i427ugoccm6

 

As for the ride it out folks...  I used to think under Cat3 is no reason to get excited.  However, as of about 10yrs ago, I subscribe to the theory that you can just go on vacation somewhere and have a nice time whilst your shit is getting fucked up at home.  Why stress about trees down in the road and possibly getting electrocuted whilst cleaning up the yard, then taking a shower with the hose, sitting in a hot wet house, and eating shitty hurricane supplies?  It's madness and I'll never do it again.

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I've got a close friend whose in-laws just got back to Ft. Meyers.  The difficulty is that his MIL has what Royal Tenenbaum would call "a bad case of cancer," and they just made an incredibly difficult move back to Florida from Illinois to get her there for home-nursing care (they've lived in FL for the past decade or so).  It looks like the eye wall will pass northwest of them, but given Ft. Meyers location on the Caloosahatchee River, I surmise that it's absolutely not a good place to be right now.  Suffice it to say, they cannot (or have made the calculated decision not to) leave given her condition.  It looks like winds won't bee too bad at 35 mph.  Storm surge of 3--5 feet is more worrisome, but my guess is that they live in a house that was designed to survive that.  Still, not a good situation.

Edited by dcbc
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That 10-20’ storm surge going into that socket of the coast is no joke.

What people underestimate / misunderstand is that the surge is the temporary, new water level and there are still waves above that especially right along the coast.  Even substantially elevated structures can get inundated. 

Lots of hard, permanent lessons learned about that along Bolivar during Rita. 

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10 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

All I need is a blue shed….. and a scuba tank….. and another scuba tank…. and some more scuba tanks…

IMG_2427.gif.3574bb47864c3e3e85535731adaefb61.gif

 

The terribly sad thing is that there are going to be a whole lotta people who will not evacuate.  I think I shared the story before, but one of my assistant scout leaders was a military fireman - and a couple years after Katrina he told me that he drove to his father-in-law’s single-story home on the lakefront to get them to evacuate.  He refused to do so.    He kept explaining the storm surge predictions and how his house might be underwater how is grandchildren would miss him if he passed away and the storm.  Nothing worked.    The guy told me he was still haunted by the last thing he told his father-in-law, who would just told him to fuck off and leave him alone.  He replied, “Fine. I hope you drown in your living room, you old asshole.”

He did.  

Unfortunately, this will be playing out in Florida tomorrow.  My Louisiana experience is that getting old people to leave their homes when hurricane is approaching is near impossible - and if they can’t bring their pets, it is absolutely impossible. Hotels making exceptions for hurricanes and letting people bring their pets will save lives.

It takes resources to evacuate.  "stubborness" in many is just a veneer for acceptance that they can't evacuate and have no place to evacuate to or pay for.  Gas.  Food.  Lodgings.  This of course is not always the case, but it's a part of the calculus.  

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Good luck Florida. Are we making FSU jokes yet? Too soon?

Absolutely not in the same category (SWIDT) but I’m in the air back from Dallas to Atlanta now. No trouble getting out at 7AM but I imagine that could change as the day goes on.

That storm that hit Dallas two nights ago hit Atlanta yesterday, so the ground is already soaked. When Helene gets there we’re gonna have a looot of trees down. Schools are canceled Friday. I expect we will be out of power for some time.

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58 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I've got a close friend whose in-laws just got back to Ft. Meyers.  The difficulty is that his MIL has what Royal Tenenbaum would call "a bad case of cancer," and they just made an incredibly difficult move back to Florida from Illinois to get her there for home-nursing care (they've lived in FL for the past decade or so).  It looks like the eye wall will pass northwest of them, but given Ft. Meyers location on the Caloosahatchee River, I surmise that it's absolutely not a good place to be right now.  Suffice it to say, they cannot (or have made the calculated decision not to) leave given her condition.  It looks like winds won't bee too bad at 35 mph.  Storm surge of 3--5 feet is more worrisome, but my guess is that they live in a house that was designed to survive that.  Still, not a good situation.

Looks like Fort Myers will be spared the worst of it as long as it stays on the predicted path.

35 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

IMG_3411.thumb.gif.7f786f8393ab7146588f4acdcd7629cb.gif

Man, the VHTs are popping right now.

I know this is serious business and I don't want to trivialize the potential human toll, but man watching these things grow and blow up is always awe-inspiring in a terrifying sort of way. Just makes you feel small and insignificant. Mother Nature truly does not give a fuck about us.

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1 minute ago, Buzzrock said:

So, yes.

But yeah of course I wish the best for the people there.

Of course, I don’t wish anyone harm. But since Helena has decided to go to Florida, it is merely a question of what part of Florida she’s going to.  If I wish it away from Tallahassee, then I am wishing it on some other Florida city.   

What Helena would do with a direct hit on Tampa is unimaginable.

The thing I really wish is that it had never been formed. 

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1 hour ago, dcbc said:

I've got a close friend whose in-laws just got back to Ft. Meyers.  The difficulty is that his MIL has what Royal Tenenbaum would call "a bad case of cancer," and they just made an incredibly difficult move back to Florida from Illinois to get her there for home-nursing care (they've lived in FL for the past decade or so).  It looks like the eye wall will pass northwest of them, but given Ft. Meyers location on the Caloosahatchee River, I surmise that it's absolutely not a good place to be right now.  Suffice it to say, they cannot (or have made the calculated decision not to) leave given her condition.  It looks like winds won't bee too bad at 35 mph.  Storm surge of 3--5 feet is more worrisome, but my guess is that they live in a house that was designed to survive that.  Still, not a good situation.

Ft Myers is going to be fine. 

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On the subject of Tallacrappy...   Whistling past the graveyard here...  but I'm fucking sick and tired of hearing from my insurance company how Miami/Broward/Palmbeach is a really high risk place and insurance premiums have to be extra high compared to central and N Florida.  I think we've had 1 cat 1 here and a few grazing shots in 20 years.  Meanwhile North and Central Florida have been catching strays every year.  I'm subsidizing their lower insurance costs and *if* we do catch an Andrew to the face, the insurance companies are gonna fold like the Gata D on 3rd and long.

Sorry, If it's gotta hit Florida it's best for all involved if it hits the Nature Coast.

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https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

This is interesting. Someone overlaid the NHC cone track on radar of the storm heading to Florida.   You can see there is a slight wobble to the east.  it will be interesting to see if it wobbles back.  20 or 30 miles east would give the Tampa area a little more wind but a lot more water.

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Serious question.  If you had an older relative that you could easily take in a fight, is it legal to literally kidnap them, throw them on back of your Tahoe and drive them to safety.  Would you get in trouble with the law for that?

They’d hate you for the rest of their life, but they’d still be alive at least.

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24 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

This is interesting. Someone overlaid the NHC cone track on radar of the storm heading to Florida.   You can see there is a slight wobble to the east.  it will be interesting to see if it wobbles back.  20 or 30 miles east would give the Tampa area a little more wind but a lot more water.

I'm no meteorologist, but that looks like a bit more than a slight wobble.  That is more than a little concerning for the Tampa/St. Pete area and points north...

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9 hours ago, bolverk said:

I kind of get it.

Knock on wood, but I've never been in a similar situation unless you're talking about the Snowpocalypse we endured in Austin a few years ago when we had no electricity and had to shovel snow into our toilet tanks. Fortunately, other than burst pipes and fallen tree limbs, there wasn't too much trauma other than the cold isolation at the tail end of the pandemic.

Having grown up in West Texas and living in Austin for about 27 years (120+ miles from the coast as the crow flies), hurricane situations remain beyond my personal experience, but I completely understand the waiting game, which is what this is at this point. I'm sure almost everyone is feeling fairly helpless about how bad it will end up being and is looking at baseline survival strategies. Personally, I'd get the fuck out, but I also understand that many are wedded too much to their personal Alamos.

The HEB comment was more directed toward a private entity waiting in the wings to swoop in and take care of affected areas. They're akin to a private-sector FEMA, ready to bring in whatever is needed for emergencies like this.

I'm not a praying man, but I'll keep my fingers crossed that damage and loss of life are minimized and simply hope as many folks as possible have enough sense to get the fuck out of the way.

Godspeed to you all.

Sorry I didn't understand what you meant.  Private organizations assistant in instances like this, but the National Guard is mobilized and will spearhead the initial response, then Red Cross then comes in behind them.  Honestly, both do a great job, so it's something we get right on this.  

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They do a good job. The FEMA office in Atlanta already has scenarios for response and focus areas ready to go.

Though the private groups are welcome, they get in the way sometimes. They are better coming in 7-10 days after, but then it is not in the news.

During the Bastrop Fire (#1) insurance companies took over a parking lot at a cross roads. caused a massive back up in traffic there right on 71 when people were trying to get out and assistance coming in

HEB pulled in and did they good thing. Not only food, but they came in with laundry trucks. They coordinated with the State and Locals and went where told. The Church groups fucked lots of things up. And interesting they did not want goods, they wanted cash. So ended up with storage units full of shit and they bought property.

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14 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

They coordinated with the State and Locals and went where told. The Church groups fucked lots of things up.

This is so, so key (and I've worked with private groups in responses to hurricanes).  Either 1) come in sufficiently after the fact that you don't get in the way of EMERGENCY relief (some of the crews who come in a few days after a hurricane with chainsaws, helping individual residents/streets clear tree debris, are a good example of how that can work for the good), and/or 2) coordinate with actual local officials to be a resource that THEY can direct where and how it is needed.  It literally can be as simple as talking to local law enforcement with a query of "we're coming with food and water - you tell us where we can set up where we will a) help and b) not be in your way."  They'll do it.  I had friends (driving my borrowed truck) show up in Slidell after Katrina, when not many relief supplies had gotten there.  They talked with the sheriff's department, and got a law enforcement escort to the shelter to feed people.

As shitty as this country and the people in it are, there are also plenty of folks who can and will do the right thing -- if they temper that impulse with the willingness to listen and be part of a coordinated effort (do what others NEED you to do, not what you FEEL like doing), then good things happen.

Edited by Brisketexan
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Serious question.  If you had an older relative that you could easily take in a fight, is it legal to literally kidnap them, throw them on back of your Tahoe and drive them to safety.  Would you get in trouble with the law for that?
They’d hate you for the rest of their life, but they’d still be alive at least.

Just don’t forget to take the dog leash off of the bumper
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