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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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Seeing conflicting reports about the dam, it's clearly breaching (spilling over the top), but it is intact, and not expected to fail.  Neither is good, but if you had to pick one, you take the former rather than the latter.  

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Just now, BamaATL said:

Seeing conflicting reports about the dam, it's clearly breaching (spilling over the top), but it is intact, and not expected to fail.  Neither is good, but if you had to pick one, you take the former rather than the latter.  

Yes. 🙌 

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Rutherford County, NC Emergency Management
 

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LAKE LURE DAM UPDATE
9-27-24 at 1:30 PM: Water is cresting the Dam and flowing around the side walls. Structural supports have been compromised but the Dam wall is currently holding. Evacuations have occurred from the Dam to Island Creek Road. Evacuation sirens are sounding downstream of the Dam. Emergency personnel are working with the structural engineers and are going house to house to ensure all citizens have been evacuated. Evacuees are being transported temporarily to Ingles in Lake Lure. Text AlertRC to 888777 to get emergency updates.

 

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2 hours ago, TexasHooch said:

 

Yeah, I don't know if it's misuse of terms or sloppy reporting, but this is what I read:

https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/severe-weather/helene-lake-lure-dam-failure/275-ff893ea8-e29e-466a-95b4-857ea3fb8e18

 

Yeah....it's what I followed up with.  Overtopping/water going outside the dam is compromising the dam structure itself, creating a risk of structural collapse:

 

Quote

As of 1:30 p.m., emergency workers said water is cresting the dam and flowing around the side walls. 

"Structural supports have been compromised, but the dam wall is currently holding," Rutherford County Emergency Management said. 

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

jesus 😳

and whoever thought friggin Knoxville would be at risk from hurricane impact. wow.

When we saw the later forecast tracks, and they showed the storm slowing and lingering over Tennessee, that's exactly what a bunch of folks voiced concern about.  A slow-moving tropical system is a real fucker inland sometimes (that's what the version of Harvey that caused the most devastation was - a lingering cat 1 hurricane to TS that dropped a biblical amount of rain inland from the coast).

Tropical systems kill on the coast with storm surge and wind.  They kill inland with rain.

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4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Where did the eye pass relative to Athens?  I have a good buddy who lives there, haven't heard from him yet.

That’s my hometown and where my folks live, and the eye was pretty close to there. They said lots of wind and rain but no damage. 

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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

State of Georgia National Guard should also be able to contribute, not far from us either.  

No doubt.

I was just thinking of states that I know have created teams specific for these situations and could be pre-deployed. Texas has been around since pre Katrina (with great success). Oklahoma, Utah, NC, and another in that area (maybe TN or GA???) have followed the Texas model and started their own Helicopter Task Force SAR teams.

There are other states that have the USAF/guard component with PJs but I was just thinking of the ones that have started something like we have here with the national guard birds from SA and ATX. It's been a great model. TXTF-1 (the helicopters) has been used in IKE, Harvey, and numerous flooding events or tropical storms in the valley since being deployed at Katrina. The Colonel (good friend of mine) that was the original CO of the task force (FEMA funded) into Katrina was not too happy about having "civilian" swimmers on his aircraft at first, but they proved their worth in NO and it's been continued here since and copied throughout the US. 

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Mother nature is a force to be reckoned with, but I do wonder about the upkeep of our civilian infrastructure.  

I know that dams are built with safety margins in mind (designed for 1,000 year storm events etc)  However it's become clear that those risk factors were calculated without climate change impacts in mind.  Lake Lure was built in the 1920's.  I sure hope since then the maintenance budgets haven't been cut or stretched like they have here in Ft Lauderdale.  Our water infrastructure explodes if too many people have taco bell.

Edited by locodos
had to add the 19 cause I'm old
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3 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I just…damnit 😢

Without looking it up, my bet is this is an earthen dam, and these are very worrisome in this situation.  Worse, there is a shitload of them around.  

With the benefit of a google search, this does appear to be a concrete dam, the concern about earthen ones stands.  

Edited by BamaATL
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3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Without looking it up, my bet is this is an earthen dam, and these are very worrisome in this situation.  Worse, there is a shitload of them around.  

Sound off is your friend

Edited by locodos
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Just now, Bevo&Pevo said:

^^^ average depth?

Average listed was 12 feet, which is sort of deceptive in just looking at the dam.  Of course that is average, and that's a shit load of water if it has indeed suffered catastrophic failure.  

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4 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

^^^ average depth?

 

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Average listed was 12 feet, which is sort of deceptive in just looking at the dam.  Of course that is average, and that's a shit load of water if it has indeed suffered catastrophic failure.  

Yeah, but to fail "catastrophically" it would be holding a lot more water over a larger area, with more to follow

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24 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That's gonna be real bad.  

For perspective, the arch is 800 feet wide, and 180 feet tall, it holds back a 76 acre lake.  

What I saw was that the one in Wisconsin is 76 acres, the one in NC is 301 acres.  Of course, that's just surface acreage.  If it's an average of 12 feet deep (not sure where that number came from), that's still over 3600 acre feet of water coming downstream, and fast.  Bad news.

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What I saw was that the one in Wisconsin is 76 acres, the one in NC is 301 acres.  Of course, that's just surface acreage.  If it's an average of 12 feet deep (not sure where that number came from), that's still over 3600 acre feet of water coming downstream, and fast.  Bad news.

Not sure, the acreage could be confused, apparently the dam was completed in 1930.  Worse, the town apparently is directly downstream of it.  

 

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Also worthy of note, and perhaps most importantly, Newport Tennessee is the hometown of one Marshall Teague, perhaps best known as the bad guy's top henchman in Roadhouse.  That alone should qualify the town on the registry of historic places.  

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8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

IMG_2540.jpeg

It'd probably be more helpful if they converted those bullets for readers trying to figure out when to get the fuck out if they changed them into the actual time each event would occur.

Not a criticism of you reposting the xeet, obviously.

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I may just look at animal memes and gifs for a while. This is some of the most beautiful country and it’s being just decimated. At least the patients are being taken care of—the concern is those trapped in their homes. Or trying to escape the rushing water and roads being shut down. 
 

yep I’m going to watch cute animal videos now 

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Not sure anyone who made that dam almost a hundred years ago was thinking it would last this long. Holy smokes, we are going to need some major infrastructure revamp. 

 

And never mind but that whole area is ripe for flash flooding and mudslides. 

Edited by Newdoc
catastrophe cancelled
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8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It'd probably be more helpful if they converted those bullets for readers trying to figure out when to get the fuck out if they changed them into the actual time each event would occur.

Not a criticism of you reposting the xeet, obviously.

Hard to say you know exactly when it will fail. Unless you are this guy.

image.jpeg.55f47bad4cf8c1d7d3e049f7d86e474d.jpeg

And you see this.

Vlcsnap-00618.webp.6bc2ab8a9fac1eeea2d44ef2edfdfadd.webp

And cancelled. So now you are this guy s surrounded by SEC tards.

image.jpeg.0a790590254e87d7d6a6308c30075ab8.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....it's what I followed up with.  Overtopping/water going outside the dam is compromising the dam structure itself, creating a risk of structural collapse:

 

When we saw the later forecast tracks, and they showed the storm slowing and lingering over Tennessee, that's exactly what a bunch of folks voiced concern about.  A slow-moving tropical system is a real fucker inland sometimes (that's what the version of Harvey that caused the most devastation was - a lingering cat 1 hurricane to TS that dropped a biblical amount of rain inland from the coast).

Tropical systems kill on the coast with storm surge and wind.  They kill inland with rain.

I said this on an ops call today.  A slow moving TS that dumps a ton of rain can be worse than a fast moving Cat 4/5.  Harvey and the one that hit NC a few years back were good examples.

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2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I said this on an ops call today.  A slow moving TS that dumps a ton of rain can be worse than a fast moving Cat 4/5.  Harvey and the one that hit NC a few years back were good examples.

Same here. Told a team to make sure they had a small zodiac with a motor on their trailer.

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20 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Not sure anyone who made that dam almost a hundred years ago was thinking it would last this long. Holy smokes, we are going to need some major infrastructure revamp. 

 

And never mind but that whole area is ripe for flash flooding and mudslides. 

This is a major challenge we are facing.  Wanna be scared?  Take note of the dates you see on bridges when you drive over them.  Chances are, you drive over more from the 1950s and earlier than you think.  Many of the dams are pretty much the exact same things, built as new deal projects or post ww2 (most in the area with issues right now are old TVA projects).  Considering that most people that were alive during either event are now long dead, and yeah, that's a problem.  

It was great when we got an infrastructure deal done recently, but to call it adequate to address all our needs isn't realistic.  The truth of the matter is we are going to need to allocate significantly more to address these types of problems.  

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

It'd probably be more helpful if they converted those bullets for readers trying to figure out when to get the fuck out if they changed them into the actual time each event would occur.

Not a criticism of you reposting the xeet, obviously.

The phrase "If the damn fully fails" should be a clue as to why they cant communicate actual times of each event.

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7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Where did the eye pass relative to Athens?  I have a good buddy who lives there, haven't heard from him yet.

Talked to my daughter in Athens earlier, Athens came through fine. It ended up east of them. Talked to a client in Augusta this afternoon, it got hammered. He said he has significant damage, there were several deaths reported, etc. 

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