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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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14 hours ago, texasdago said:

To be honest, putting any of one's own money anywhere on the gulf coast... Galveston, Biloxi, Port A, Pensacola, whatever... a fool's errand.  

*nervous laugh in Houston*

13 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know much about the mine nor quartz, but you do have to wonder, if this was so extremely critical, why didn't they build a secondary road to it?  

My question is why, if every semiconductor in the world requires raw material from this one mine in NC, doesn’t that come up in literally every single bilateral negotiation we have with China?

13 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Still a little way out, so hopefully this turns into a nothingburger.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-192.gif

NHC remains unimpressed by that guy as of this morning. They seem to think a rain storm at most. 

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we got power back last night, Augusta area. 

got a few more white hairs in my beard after Friday morning. Pretty relentless from 3am-6am here. Track of the storm went exactly as predicted 5 days out. With 2 days to go the track magically shifted west to include Metro Atlanta and Nashville. Gotta pump up those sales!

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Wife and I went to Asheville for the first time in early August and fell in love with the city.  We spent a whole day bar and studio-hopping around the River Arts District, which is located downslope from the center of town and along the banks of the French Broad.  The pics I'm seeing of the area are heartbreaking, with a huge numbers of businesses suffering a total loss.

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28 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Wife and I went to Asheville for the first time in early August and fell in love with the city.  We spent a whole day bar and studio-hopping around the River Arts District, which is located downslope from the center of town and along the banks of the French Broad.  The pics I'm seeing of the area are heartbreaking, with a huge numbers of businesses suffering a total loss.

Now's a great time to buy some retirement property. Make some lemonade, sir. 

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Now's a great time to buy some retirement property. Make some lemonade, sir. 

It will eventually be like Harvey... memories are short, people will move on and of course many will rebuild in dangerous areas.  Just be sure to buy something higher up.  Always look where the water flows... (signed, a former Houston resident)

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20 minutes ago, texasdago said:

It will eventually be like Harvey... memories are short, people will move on and of course many will rebuild in dangerous areas.  Just be sure to buy something higher up.  Always look where the water flows... (signed, a former Houston resident)

Man, I saw that landslide or whatever you'd call it from the guy's living on hte mountains in TN. Better be at the tip fucking top. 

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6 hours ago, South Austin said:

Wife and I went to Asheville for the first time in early August and fell in love with the city.  We spent a whole day bar and studio-hopping around the River Arts District, which is located downslope from the center of town and along the banks of the French Broad.  The pics I'm seeing of the area are heartbreaking, with a huge numbers of businesses suffering a total loss.

That’s gotta be extra devastating for them considering those are their art studios, and they likely lost all of their pieces. Hopefully they carried good insurance, but I wonder how that works when you’re selling your own art without any real way to prove what was lost. Not like you have invoices like a traditional retailer would. Plus, they’re artists and they’d have such a deep connection with all of their works, again unlike a traditional retailer. 

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8 hours ago, tokamak said:

My question is why, if every semiconductor in the world requires raw material from this one mine in NC, doesn’t that come up in literally every single bilateral negotiation we have with China?

Because they're also getting it out of Korea (*cough* China).  Although it's likely that your supplier/vendor has not admitted that to you yet.

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5 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Here's a before/after:

 

461936813_1104306671057866_7677750661525

Man did we ever get lucky in Atlanta.  That map is a bit chilling, the state of Georgia was really fortunate because basically that path was almost perfectly over the least densely populated areas possible.  

Also, just as an aside, the night maps are really freaking cool.  

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1 hour ago, SurlyGator said:

The dark streaks in the before picture up in the mountains of western NC and eastern TN illustrate (no pun intended) just how rugged that land is.  So wash out a metric crap ton of the roads in an area like that, no es bueno...

I know it's gonna be real expensive, but this sort of thing screams the need to bury as much electrical line as possible.  

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57 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I know it's gonna be real expensive, but this sort of thing screams the need to bury as much electrical line as possible.  

Excuse my ignorance, but what is the cost comparison for buried vs. traditional power lines?  Obviously digging is pricier, but wondering if there’s an “accurate” guesstimate that anyone has gathered that indicates that buried lines cost more by a factor 3/5/10 whatever. 

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3 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Excuse my ignorance, but what is the cost comparison for buried vs. traditional power lines?  Obviously digging is pricier, but wondering if there’s an “accurate” guesstimate that anyone has gathered that indicates that buried lines cost more by a factor 3/5/10 whatever. 

For distribution lines (the ones you see around town), the consensus is that it is 4-6X the cost of aerial power lines.

The costs of electric infrastructure is always borne by the customers.

Electric customers will not pay for such dramatically higher costs; many customers on the lower end simply couldn't afford those rates.  There's a reason that buried power lines are mostly a function of 1) newly built infrastructure 2) in higher-end neighborhoods.  It's lower cost when it's done as part of initial construction (when the ground is already torn up and utilities are being installed there anyway), and buyers who will pay a premium are okay eating that extra cost.

"Bury all the power lines!" is not an economically viable solution, no matter how much we want it to be.

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"Bury all the power lines!" is not an economically viable solution, no matter how much we want it to be.

Understood here for sure. 
 

wrt how it’s handled in other developed countries, are a majority of power lines underground by mandate in any other parts of the world?  Obviously US infrastructure is not where it needs to be to accomplish a buried line philosophy, but I’d assume some nations make it a focal point to keep a majority of them buried. 

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12 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Understood here for sure. 
 

wrt how it’s handled in other developed countries, are a majority of power lines underground by mandate in any other parts of the world?  Obviously US infrastructure is not where it needs to be to accomplish a buried line philosophy, but I’d assume some nations make it a focal point to keep a majority of them buried. 

Yo, I don't know about the rest of the world, but SE Asia loves themselves some above ground power lines.  Phenom Penh is fucking wild. 

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7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

For distribution lines (the ones you see around town), the consensus is that it is 4-6X the cost of aerial power lines.

The costs of electric infrastructure is always borne by the customers.

Electric customers will not pay for such dramatically higher costs; many customers on the lower end simply couldn't afford those rates.  There's a reason that buried power lines are mostly a function of 1) newly built infrastructure 2) in higher-end neighborhoods.  It's lower cost when it's done as part of initial construction (when the ground is already torn up and utilities are being installed there anyway), and buyers who will pay a premium are okay eating that extra cost.

"Bury all the power lines!" is not an economically viable solution, no matter how much we want it to be.

I would disagree with this, albeit over time (and also because we aren't in Texas in a pure for profit situation and our rates are fixed (mine is 9 cents per kw hour).  Because of monopoly laws with utilities GA Power and it's parent Southern Company have a profit margin that is capped at 6% (they aren't guaranteed this profit, it's a bit more complicated, but capped nonetheless).  Doing this would absolutely have a cost, and it is absolutely more expensive on the front end, but in the long term probably not.  Whether we realize it or not, maintaining the lines is part of our costs, and the fact that we have to employ as many lineman and the like for situations just like this has a huge cost.  If over time, this cost was phased out, it would eventually break even if not even begin to be more economically practical.  So the difficult part would be convincing customers that 30 years from now it's worth it to pay 1 cent more per kw hour right now in order to have this (obviously paying 10% more is a tough sale for a lot of people).  

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6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I would disagree with this, albeit over time (and also because we aren't in Texas in a pure for profit situation and our rates are fixed (mine is 9 cents per kw hour).  Because of monopoly laws with utilities GA Power and it's parent Southern Company have a profit margin that is capped at 6% (they aren't guaranteed this profit, it's a bit more complicated, but capped nonetheless).  Doing this would absolutely have a cost, and it is absolutely more expensive on the front end, but in the long term probably not.  Whether we realize it or not, maintaining the lines is part of our costs, and the fact that we have to employ as many lineman and the like for situations just like this has a huge cost.  If over time, this cost was phased out, it would eventually break even if not even begin to be more economically practical.  So the difficult part would be convincing customers that 30 years from now it's worth it to pay 1 cent more per kw hour right now in order to have this (obviously paying 10% more is a tough sale for a lot of people).  

So, most regulated utility ratemaking recovers two components:

1) actual costs, operations and maintenance, etc.  So, what you pay your linemen, the costs for fuel to run generation plants, etc.  You recover 100% of those in your rate.

2) a return on invested capital that is spent on items that are "used and useful" in providing service.  It's often in the 6-10% range.  So, if you spent $100 million on a new gas generation plant, you would recover 6-10% of that investment, per year.

On installing lines, I'm not positive, but I expect that the cost of the installation is part of the cost of the plant-in-service.  So, if I put up a $10 million aerial line segment (that's what it cost me in labor, materials, land acquisition, etc.), I recover 6-10% on that.  If I install a $50 million underground line segment covering the same area, I recover 6-10% on THAT.  So, you'd be paying 6-10% on an extra $40 million for the life of the asset (generally -- there are some depreciation functions, utility accounting is a bit wonky).

Weighing that against the cost of maintenance and upkeep of aerial lines (tree trimming and such) will yield an optimum outcome.  Which gets us to the point....under most any system (competition or regulated monopoly), the cost picture generally doesn't work out.  Even if you spread the costs over a bit of time.  And yes, customers will bitch when rates go up even 1%.  Make them go up 5%, and you'll be shot.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, most regulated utility ratemaking recovers two components:

1) actual costs, operations and maintenance, etc.  So, what you pay your linemen, the costs for fuel to run generation plants, etc.  You recover 100% of those in your rate.

2) a return on invested capital that is spent on items that are "used and useful" in providing service.  It's often in the 6-10% range.  So, if you spent $100 million on a new gas generation plant, you would recover 6-10% of that investment, per year.

On installing lines, I'm not positive, but I expect that the cost of the installation is part of the cost of the plant-in-service.  So, if I put up a $10 million aerial line segment (that's what it cost me in labor, materials, land acquisition, etc.), I recover 6-10% on that.  If I install a $50 million underground line segment covering the same area, I recover 6-10% on THAT.  So, you'd be paying 6-10% on an extra $40 million for the life of the asset (generally -- there are some depreciation functions, utility accounting is a bit wonky).

Weighing that against the cost of maintenance and upkeep of aerial lines (tree trimming and such) will yield an optimum outcome.  Which gets us to the point....under most any system (competition or regulated monopoly), the cost picture generally doesn't work out.  Even if you spread the costs over a bit of time.  And yes, customers will bitch when rates go up even 1%.  Make them go up 5%, and you'll be shot.

I know you are wrong on the last point, we just spent 20 billion on two new reactors, not one word of negativity.  

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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I know you are wrong on the last point, we just spent 20 billion on two new reactors, not one word of negativity.  

Huh.  I was surprised to read your post, then googled it.  Found some pretty plain-spoken negativity:

Quote

REPORT: NEW NUCLEAR REACTORS TO COST GEORGIA RATEPAYERS EXTRA $420 ANNUALLY, ON AVERAGE

by GCV Education Fund | Jun 3, 2024 | Press Releases

Most Expensive Electricity on Earth: $20/month Bill Increases Coming After Vogtle Units 3 & 4 Begin Commercial Operation, 7 Years Late and $21 Billion Over Budget

ATLANTA – MAY 30, 2024 – Will Georgia’s new reactors at Plant Vogtle be the last nuclear reactors ever completed in the United States? It’s a plausible outcome according to a new report, Plant Vogtle: the True Cost of Nuclear Power in the United States, released today by six prominent Georgia consumer groups. 

The new analysis details how the U.S. Department of Energy, Georgia Power, and the Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC), conspired to force Georgians into purchasing the most expensive electricity in the world, costing ratepayers $10,784 per kilowatt hour, compared to $900 – $1,500 per kilowatt hour for wind, solar, or natural gas. A separate analysis shows that ratepayers should expect a monthly electricity bill increase of $20 on average, more than double the Georgia Power disclosed estimate of $15 per month. 

The report was commissioned by six Georgia groups and co-authored by Patty Durand, former president of the Smart Energy Consumer Collaborative and a recent candidate for the Georgia PSC; Kim Scott, executive director of Georgia WAND; and Glenn Carroll, coordinator of Nuclear Watch South. The groups seek to warn officials in other states not to believe claims that nuclear energy is cost-competitive, required for clean energy, or necessary to meet large growth projections, claims that were made repeatedly to Georgians leading up to and throughout the project and will continue this Friday at the U.S. Department of Energy’s unveiling ceremony in Waynesboro, GA. 

Key findings in the report include:

Plant Vogtle will allow Georgia Power to expand its rate base, the assets on which they earn a guaranteed rate of return, by over $11 billion. Yet their share of Vogtle is 1,020 megawatts, making it the most expensive electricity in the world at $10,784/KW. Normal (wind, solar, natural gas) generation prices range from $1,000 to $1500/KW. 

Quote

Critics fear Georgia Power will profit from mistakes. Staff estimates show Georgia Power could earn an extra $9.4 billion in profit over 60 years if allowed to charge for all spending. Customers could pay $35.7 billion overall, $20.5 billion more than originally projected.

 

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Huh.  I was surprised to read your post, then googled it.  Found some pretty plain-spoken negativity:

 

There was some level of criticism (as well there should have been for over-runs), and it was reported upon within the media, however, I've never once heard any rank and file customer bitch about it once.  The total costs make it a juicy story because of the big dollar signs, but the reality for most customers is that it's doubtful they've even noticed.  Timing might have been kind to this situation given the state of inflation on everything else.  Most customers are aware that even in spite of over-runs, we still have some of the lowest rates going.  

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8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

For distribution lines (the ones you see around town), the consensus is that it is 4-6X the cost of aerial power lines.

The costs of electric infrastructure is always borne by the customers.

Electric customers will not pay for such dramatically higher costs; many customers on the lower end simply couldn't afford those rates.  There's a reason that buried power lines are mostly a function of 1) newly built infrastructure 2) in higher-end neighborhoods.  It's lower cost when it's done as part of initial construction (when the ground is already torn up and utilities are being installed there anyway), and buyers who will pay a premium are okay eating that extra cost.

"Bury all the power lines!" is not an economically viable solution, no matter how much we want it to be.

Lines are pretty much buried in all new developments now, regardless of neighborhood location.  Most of the utilities require it.

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Just now, landman said:

Lines are pretty much buried in all new developments now, regardless of neighborhood location.  Most of the utilities require it.

Makes some sense, as that's when it's affordable (you're already digging utility trenches, just add electric lines to the mix).  I'm sure it's still a bit more than putting them on poles, but not dramatically more.  The real challenge is in retrofitting utilities where they already exist.  I think of my old neighborhood, and the level of trenching etc. that would be required to install entirely new lines....sheeeeeit.

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Makes some sense, as that's when it's affordable (you're already digging utility trenches, just add electric lines to the mix).  I'm sure it's still a bit more than putting them on poles, but not dramatically more.  The real challenge is in retrofitting utilities where they already exist.  I think of my old neighborhood, and the level of trenching etc. that would be required to install entirely new lines....sheeeeeit.

Well, the hydraulic processes that was really implemented with all the fiber op stuff makes the cost and general intrusions a lot cheaper.  

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11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Interesting -- tell me more.

Well, old school developments (at least around here) when doing your site work and roughing in utilities, you'd have to dig trenches for everything, from beginning to end.  In order to do this, you'd need lots of equipment digging and then guys to run the line, followed by re-burying it (and a bunch of other shit I'm leaving out).  With this equipment, I've seen a crew of three guys do a 100 or so home new development in a matter of a couple of weeks.  They have to dig a hole about every 100 feet, and bore does the rest of the work.  All those guys do is rough in, meaning the actually equipment (transformers, meters, etc) are done by lineman, but they come in after the fact.  It's amazingly fast, so much so that I've seen guys run 100 foot runs in under 30 minutes, and best yet, it takes a crew with a mini-ex and the bore, all of which can be towed with one truck.  I've even seen a plumber use this method to rough in from the meter to the slab forms (I've only ever seen that done once, with pex, but I've seen it).  I don't know the limitations of all this when it comes to different soil types, but considering that we have a lot of granite around here, and that doesn't seem to give these guys any trouble, I'd imagine that it's suitable for most conditions.  

I know that when the fiber op boom happened this is when all this sort of stuff became normal within that industry, and shortly thereafter if began to matriculate to other trades.  I don't know who pioneered this, but it's pretty cool stuff.  Ultimately, the real cost is the cable itself, but that of course, was always going to be there.  

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27 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Well, old school developments (at least around here) when doing your site work and roughing in utilities, you'd have to dig trenches for everything, from beginning to end.  In order to do this, you'd need lots of equipment digging and then guys to run the line, followed by re-burying it (and a bunch of other shit I'm leaving out).  With this equipment, I've seen a crew of three guys do a 100 or so home new development in a matter of a couple of weeks.  They have to dig a hole about every 100 feet, and bore does the rest of the work.  All those guys do is rough in, meaning the actually equipment (transformers, meters, etc) are done by lineman, but they come in after the fact.  It's amazingly fast, so much so that I've seen guys run 100 foot runs in under 30 minutes, and best yet, it takes a crew with a mini-ex and the bore, all of which can be towed with one truck.  I've even seen a plumber use this method to rough in from the meter to the slab forms (I've only ever seen that done once, with pex, but I've seen it).  I don't know the limitations of all this when it comes to different soil types, but considering that we have a lot of granite around here, and that doesn't seem to give these guys any trouble, I'd imagine that it's suitable for most conditions.  

I know that when the fiber op boom happened this is when all this sort of stuff became normal within that industry, and shortly thereafter if began to matriculate to other trades.  I don't know who pioneered this, but it's pretty cool stuff.  Ultimately, the real cost is the cable itself, but that of course, was always going to be there.  

Definitely wonder how that's translated to laying underground electric.  Interesting stuff.

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Wife and I went to Asheville for the first time in early August and fell in love with the city.  We spent a whole day bar and studio-hopping around the River Arts District, which is located downslope from the center of town and along the banks of the French Broad.  The pics I'm seeing of the area are heartbreaking, with a huge numbers of businesses suffering a total loss.

Terrible. River district is where the creatives priced out of the rest of Asheville went.

Boone is really really bad. October is peak tourist season from leaf peeping, the Woolly Worm Festival, Homecoming, and AppSt family/parents weekend. This is going to have a huge economic impact for NE NC on top of the present devastation.
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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Well, old school developments (at least around here) when doing your site work and roughing in utilities, you'd have to dig trenches for everything, from beginning to end.  In order to do this, you'd need lots of equipment digging and then guys to run the line, followed by re-burying it (and a bunch of other shit I'm leaving out).  With this equipment, I've seen a crew of three guys do a 100 or so home new development in a matter of a couple of weeks.  They have to dig a hole about every 100 feet, and bore does the rest of the work.  All those guys do is rough in, meaning the actually equipment (transformers, meters, etc) are done by lineman, but they come in after the fact.  It's amazingly fast, so much so that I've seen guys run 100 foot runs in under 30 minutes, and best yet, it takes a crew with a mini-ex and the bore, all of which can be towed with one truck.  I've even seen a plumber use this method to rough in from the meter to the slab forms (I've only ever seen that done once, with pex, but I've seen it).  I don't know the limitations of all this when it comes to different soil types, but considering that we have a lot of granite around here, and that doesn't seem to give these guys any trouble, I'd imagine that it's suitable for most conditions.  

I know that when the fiber op boom happened this is when all this sort of stuff became normal within that industry, and shortly thereafter if began to matriculate to other trades.  I don't know who pioneered this, but it's pretty cool stuff.  Ultimately, the real cost is the cable itself, but that of course, was always going to be there.  

 

When we purchased our house 12 years ago, there was almost a full section of pasture behind our house---surrounded by town.  Farmer had it, ran a few hundred head of cattle.   Then he passed, and his kids sold the ground to developers.  Around 2020, they started clearing the land and doing all the excavation work for streets, utilities, etc.   

I watched the guys with the boring rigs do what you described.   Dig a hole about 4 foot deep, run the boring machine in that hole, and have it come up around 100 feet away.   Then repeat the process.  They ran 4 inch or so conduit in the ground, then pulled copper through that, then stuck a transformer (or whatever that is) where they had each hole.   Then as the ground was being prepared for a slab, another contractor would dig a trench from the transformer to where the power was going to enter the house.

Same technique that ATT and the cable company was doing, just with larger conduit, and deeper trenching.  

The contractor doing the water/sewer/storm drains for the city took a helluva lot longer, due to having to trench everything.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

When we purchased our house 12 years ago, there was almost a full section of pasture behind our house---surrounded by town.  Farmer had it, ran a few hundred head of cattle.   Then he passed, and his kids sold the ground to developers.  Around 2020, they started clearing the land and doing all the excavation work for streets, utilities, etc.   

I watched the guys with the boring rigs do what you described.   Dig a hole about 4 foot deep, run the boring machine in that hole, and have it come up around 100 feet away.   Then repeat the process.  They ran 4 inch or so conduit in the ground, then pulled copper through that, then stuck a transformer (or whatever that is) where they had each hole.   Then as the ground was being prepared for a slab, another contractor would dig a trench from the transformer to where the power was going to enter the house.

Same technique that ATT and the cable company was doing, just with larger conduit, and deeper trenching.  

The contractor doing the water/sewer/storm drains for the city took a helluva lot longer, due to having to trench everything.

 

 

I know each utility is buried to a certain depth to give each it's own right of way so to speak.  I don't regularly deal with this, so I don't know the exact order or depth of each.  It stands to reason that for safety reasons that electricity and gas would be two of the lowest though.  As it applies to this conversation, the other really cool thing is that they can do all this under existing roads and sidewalks with disrupting them.  

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