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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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12 hours ago, Chult86 said:

Made it through... lost every non-palm tree in our yard. That was a bitch to begin to cleanup. Was only able to tackle the front yard since the back still has about 3" of standing water everywhere. Protip... downed trees sitting in water are seemingly exponentially heavier to move to the curb than ones NOT sitting in water...

Initial reports are... quite good, considering the expectations. Surge on the barrier islands not AS bad as expected, and Sanibel survived with just a scratch compared to Ian. Still no power at our house, but I'd say 10% of the business are open this morning. Stopped to get a coffee and it has never tasted as good as it has this morning.

Are you on Sanibel or one of the other islands?

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2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Some models hinting at another hurricane headed to florida mid-next week

Well Miami and Lauderdale have not been hit yet.

1 hour ago, miguelito said:

^that shows it going every which way but Florida. 

so of course it will hit smack into the middle. it is like the rain teaser in Austin's forecast. Always 10 days out.

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4 minutes ago, Ogie Ogilthorpe said:

Was able to make it up to St Pete this weekend. Impact glass shattered in two windows but nothing came in. We never lost power in the condo but internet went out.

Sounds like just about the best news possible.  Is your condo ground floor?  If so, how did it avoid any surge flooding?  

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8 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Shoot them on sight.

Next up, everyone going to FEMA CAMPS...

So shoot who? Militia or the Vanguard people? I kid. I know some Vanguard folk. They get pissed when their declarations on impacts to homes get reviewed and pushed into the maybe category. "nah mr. insurance person, that oak tree was not in the living room before the hurricane."

I do love how they call out the Military as Title 10. Here is a wiki on it for those interested.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Title_10_of_the_United_States_Code

No, the base commander cannot just decide to fly his helicopters to a disaster or can a commander move his troops and tanks after a disaster. It takes some civilian government planning and oversight and APPROVAL.

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Keeping an eye on Invest 95 off Belize tracking north. Don't think much of it now, but if it developed could be fun for the Gulf and Miami. Dade county is getting something this year. Sports requires it. U of F and Fla State felt it. Rays need a new roof. Miami deserves it for their horrible uniforms.

Just as I hit enter I received an alert on it. 70% formation over 7 days. But that would be after it drifts through Yucatan and northern Central America. Fun times.

Edited by InkaUtexas
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1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Keeping an eye on Invest 95 off Belize tracking north. Don't think much of it now, but if it developed could be fun for the Gulf and Miami. Dade county is getting something this year. Sports requires it. U of F and Fla State felt it. Rays need a new roof. Miami deserves it for their horrible uniforms.

Just as I hit enter I received an alert on it. 70% formation over 7 days. But that would be after it drifts through Yucatan and northern Central America. Fun times.

Heading to TS today.

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39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

She done got in a fight with Lurlene, and Lurlene pulled her hair, and Nadine hates that so Nadine burned Lurlene on her arm with a lit cigarette, and now errbody down at the Dollar General is talkin' bout it.

I wish you'd keep my family business private.  I thought that was part of privilege

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Meet Hurricane Oscar:

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/10/the-worlds-tiniest-hurricane-may-have-formed-this-weekend-near-cuba/

 

Quote

A hurricane so small that it could not be observed by satellite formed this weekend, surprising meteorologists and even forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Oscar developed on Saturday near Turks and Caicos, and to the northeast of Cuba, in the extreme southwestern Atlantic Ocean. As of Saturday evening, hurricane-force winds extended just 5 miles (8 km) from the center of the storm.

This is not the smallest tropical cyclone—as defined by sustained winds greater than 39 mph, or 63 kph—as that record remains held by Tropical Storm Marco back in 2008. However, this may possibly be the smallest hurricane in terms of the extent of its hurricane-force winds.

 

Quote

Oscar was so small that its winds could not be detected by Earth-observation satellites that estimate wind speeds in tropical cyclones.

Writing in his summary of Oscar's development on Saturday afternoon, National Hurricane Center forecaster Philippe Papin noted that the hurricane was only discovered due to a last-minute flight by Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

"It is fair to say it's been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar," he wrote in his 5 pm ET advisory. "After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny hurricane. It is worth noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are currently much lower."

 

Quote

Satellites do not have the capability to directly measure wind speeds, so they make estimates based upon other observable variables, using instruments such as a scatterometer. Yes, that's a real word. By these indirect estimates, Oscar had sustained winds between 48 mph and 63 mph (77 kph to 101 kph), which remains well below the threshold for a hurricane (74 mph, 119 kph).

The Air Force aircraft found sustained winds, in a tiny area to be sure, of 85 mph (137 kph). Hence, Hurricane Oscar.

 

Spoiler

Oscar's development shocked forecasters. There was only a modest indication from satellite imagery, as of Friday, that anything would form; and none of the major global models indicated development of any kind. It was thought that the area of low pressure would get swamped by vertical wind shear this weekend as it neared Cuba.

However, the tiny size of Oscar confounded those expectations. Weather models struggle with the development of small hurricanes, and this is largely because the micro-physics of the smallest storms occur below the resolution of these models. Additionally, tiny hurricanes organize much more quickly and efficiently.

In other words, small storms can more easily make quick changes. Which is what happened with Oscar. The storm will bring heavy rain and winds to the eastern half of Cuba on Sunday before it lifts to the northeast and brings rainfall and some storm surge into the Bahamas early next week.

 

 

hurricane-oscar-1000x856.jpg

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3 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Meet Hurricane Oscar:

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/10/the-worlds-tiniest-hurricane-may-have-formed-this-weekend-near-cuba/

 

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Oscar's development shocked forecasters. There was only a modest indication from satellite imagery, as of Friday, that anything would form; and none of the major global models indicated development of any kind. It was thought that the area of low pressure would get swamped by vertical wind shear this weekend as it neared Cuba.

However, the tiny size of Oscar confounded those expectations. Weather models struggle with the development of small hurricanes, and this is largely because the micro-physics of the smallest storms occur below the resolution of these models. Additionally, tiny hurricanes organize much more quickly and efficiently.

In other words, small storms can more easily make quick changes. Which is what happened with Oscar. The storm will bring heavy rain and winds to the eastern half of Cuba on Sunday before it lifts to the northeast and brings rainfall and some storm surge into the Bahamas early next week.

 

 

hurricane-oscar-1000x856.jpg

 

Turn Around No GIF by Sesame Street

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