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Posted
On 3/1/2025 at 3:09 PM, Skipper said:

Shocker.  Drive by click to hopefully see 2025 hurricane forecast and it's another Cloak Room thread like this entire board at this point.

Um I think the point is there ain’t gonna be no 2025 hurricane forecasts. Don’t know how you label that CR

Posted
56 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Um I think the point is there ain’t gonna be no 2025 hurricane forecasts. Don’t know how you label that CR

There actually was one released recently.  I saw a headline come across the end of last week.  It was the sole reason I clicked on this thread assuming there might be some substantive discussion of the actual topic of the thread.  Silly me.

Posted
1 minute ago, Skipper said:

There actually was one released recently.  I saw a headline come across the end of last week.  It was the sole reason I clicked on this thread assuming there might be some substantive discussion of the actual topic of the thread.  Silly me.

Pay closer attention to the timeline.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

There actually was one released recently.  I saw a headline come across the end of last week.  It was the sole reason I clicked on this thread assuming there might be some substantive discussion of the actual topic of the thread.  Silly me.

Go google the word "hurricane" and then click the News header right now. This is "the news."

image.thumb.png.ec4770de1db40b676cdc3a705882ae5a.png

  • Fuck Around and Find Out 3
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Skipper said:

There actually was one released recently.  I saw a headline come across the end of last week.  It was the sole reason I clicked on this thread assuming there might be some substantive discussion of the actual topic of the thread.  Silly me.

Can you link me to it? Every 2025 forecast I'm finding was published in 2024

I would impressed if they put one out at all this year, now that they've shut down the modeling team and terminated their lease on the location that integrated their radar equipment 

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa-weather-building-leases-trump

  • The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space.
  • The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting, and ensures that weather data correctly goes into these models and that they are operating correctly.
  • The NOAA employee told Axios the cancellations — along with recent layoffs, early retirements, and travel and hiring limitations — point to an effort to dismantle the agency.
Edited by Captainant
  • Rage+1 2
Posted
5 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I’m not sure we will survive without a hurricane forecast months in advance.

It'll sure help keep insurance rates down, I tell you what

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It'll sure help keep insurance rates down, I tell you what

See there’s a bright side to everything. I keep waiting to get dropped . Yet another benefit of being less than 1 year away from living in Costa Rica almost full time.

Posted
10 hours ago, justhookit said:

See there’s a bright side to everything. I keep waiting to get dropped . Yet another benefit of being less than 1 year away from living in Costa Rica almost full time.

Assuming Costa Ricans will allow Americans by then

  • Fuck Around and Find Out 2
Posted
37 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Assuming Costa Ricans will allow Americans by then

The entire Pacific coast of Costa Rica is financially supported by Americans. They can’t afford to kick us out. But yeah, I am now eligible for CR residency and/or citizenship if I want it. My wife and I will likely start that process soon.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

shut down the weather satellites 

Of course. How else will he launch his new service, WeatherX, with the latest technology in satellite imaging. Access to the data is only $99 per user per month. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
2 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

Of course. How else will he launch his new service, WeatherX, with the latest technology in satellite imaging. Access to the data is only $99 per user per month. 

So we chip in, get Hate a subscription and then sell his forecasts? I like this plan.

Posted
2 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

Of course. How else will he launch his new service, WeatherX, with the latest technology in satellite imaging. Access to the data is only $99 per user per month. 

And don't think you'll beat the system by sharing that data, or the forecasts it produces.  A minimum prison sentence of 10 years in the Trump gulag is mandatory for violating the WeatherX terms of service.

Posted
17 hours ago, bolverk said:

Go google the word "hurricane" and then click the News header right now. This is "the news."

image.thumb.png.ec4770de1db40b676cdc3a705882ae5a.png

All of those women working at the various lunch places where the meteorologists go are now freed from the slavery of employment - and can go back to making babies and supporting their husband in his more important endeavors.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And don't think you'll beat the system by sharing that data, or the forecasts it produces.  A minimum prison sentence of 10 years in the Trump gulag is mandatory for violating the WeatherX terms of service.

Send out the forecasts via pigeon.

  • 1 month later...
Posted

IMO putting these updates into the 2024 thread is somewhat appropos, considering we aren't gonna have models and forecasting like we used to. Too bad, huh @Hate?

https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-noaa-budget-cuts-climate-change-modeling-princeton-gfdl

According to the document, NOAA’s overall funding would be slashed by 27%, eliminating “functions of the Department that are misaligned with the President’s agenda and the expressed will of the American people” including almost all of those related to the study of climate change. The proposal would break up and significantly defund the agency across programs, curtailing everything from ocean research to coastal management while shifting one of NOAA’s robust satellite programs out of the agency and putting another up for commercial bidding. But its most significant target is the office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ⎯ a nerve center of global climate science, data collection and modeling, including the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ⎯ which would be cut by 74%. “At this funding level, OAR is eliminated as a line office,” the memo stated.

The total loss of OAR and its crown jewel in Princeton represents a setback for climate preparedness that experts warn the nation may never recover from.

“If we don’t understand what’s happening and why it’s happening, you can’t be adapting, you can’t be resilient. You’re just going to suffer,” Don Wuebbles, an atmospheric scientist who sits on NOAA’s scientific advisory board, told ProPublica. “We’re going to see huge impacts on infrastructure and lives lost in the U.S.”

There are other national climate models, but they also appear to be in jeopardy of losing funding. The National Science Foundation supports the National Center for Atmospheric Research, but the foundation announced it was freezing all research grants on April 18. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies has a model, but the institute could see cuts of up to 47%. And the Department of Energy, home to a fourth climate modeling system, is also under budget pressure.

Without the models, and all the sensor networks and supporting NOAA research programs that feed them, “We’ll go back to the technical and proficiency levels we had in the 1950s,” said Craig McLean, a 40-year veteran of NOAA who, until 2022, was the agency’s top administrator for research and its acting chief scientist. “We won’t have the tools we have today because we can’t populate them by people or by data.”

Posted (edited)

We aren’t  going to back to the 1950’s for tracking actual storms in the GOM. That’s hyperbole. And for the record, I’ve never once stated I support any of these cuts. I’ve stated that it hyperbolic tho say that we won’t be able to track and forecast actual storms…and now I’ve said it again. But please keep fucking that chicken.

Edited by Hate
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Posted

Interesting write up from a couple of days ago.

"THE GULF: Is currently undergoing a "marine heatwave" where ocean surface temps have spiked.

The Gulf averaged together is now back to near record highs for the time of year. I know it's in degrees Celsius but temperatures are up to 6 degrees above avg.

This means two things. If it holds into May, June, July, given a transition to a "ENSO Neutral" phase, we could have a lot of 'homegrown, but weaker' tropical systems or hurricanes that form close to land very early in the hurricane season this year.

Also, for the back half of tornado season (which has already been wildly active in KY/TN/MO) -- this means an enormously high surge of surface based moisture for tornado outbreaks.

This Gulf anomaly probably had a big (not all, but big) hand in the significant rain and flooding last week.

So, two things to watch. Enhanced tornado setups in the Plains, Gulf Coast, and Heartland end of April and May -- and a potential early start to hurricane season with weaker 'near shore forming' systems in late May/June/early July."

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491970075_1426950025408698_4229101416572392375_n.jpg

Posted
13 minutes ago, Hate said:

We aren’t  going to back to the 1950’s for tracking actual storms in the GOM GOA. That’s hyperbole. And for the record, I’ve never once stated I support any of these cuts. I’ve stated that it hyperbolic tho say that we won’t be able to track and forecast actual storms…and now I’ve said it again. But please keep fucking that chicken.

Fixed

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