2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[InkaUtexas 24932]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Ain't nothin' gonna happen gif goes here.

Why are you so negative Moriarty?

[HouTex 1838]

As far as South Texas goes, depending on where you are, they’ve had a ton of rain.  I know guys with leases reporting that they have stock tanks that haven’t had water in a decade are now full.  

[Gatorubet 29665]

6 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Every major highway heading north out of Houston has at least one stretch of major road construction reducing down to one or no lanes in some cases.  Oooooooopsie.

I am thrilled to see the convergence of a potential killer storm and July 1 being the first day the good citizens of Louisiana can carry concealed firearms without ever having a class or a permit.

Those arguments over who was there first at the gas station pump are going to be far more interesting.

[tx 3 putt 75476]

NEW: Hurricane Beryl continues to strengthen, and with winds of 155 mph it's now just 2 mph shy of category 5 intensity.

Is this the peak strength? Let's hope so. It should encounter wind shear starting tomorrow to help knock it down, but if it does not weaken considerably over the next couple of days, it's potentially bad news for us in Texas.

Why?

The heat ridge currently over Texas that protects us from tropical systems will be *gone* by this weekend. That dome of heat is heading east to Florida, and that will open the door to a Texas landfall IF Beryl stays on the stronger side.

If Beryl weakens significantly over the next two days and then remains weaker, it's likely destined for a double landfall in Mexico, one along the Yucatan peninsula, and the other along the Gulf coast south of Texas.

But if it does not significantly weaken, it would have a greater chance to turn northward toward Texas once in the Gulf of Mexico as it rides around the ridge over Florida.

We can appreciate the desire by many to already say Texas is in the clear, and we always love to tell you we're off the hook as soon as we reasonably can. Unfortunately, we cannot yet do this, and we believe it is our responsibility at this time to tell you to remain on guard for now. Read my earlier posts for more context on why that is the case, and later I'll post a link to a video Meteorologist ABC13-Elyse Smith and I recorded explaining the uncertainties down the road that will impact Beryl's path.

We should have a clearer picture by Wednesday on whether the chance of a Texas impact is going up or down, and IF we are to be impacted at all, it would be sometime in the Sunday to Tuesday window of next week.

We'll keep you posted: abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11729]

2 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Maybe we should move the lakes

Need to excavate them first.   Dig them deeper, to hold more despair.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11729]

5 hours ago, Rudiger said:

If only we knew what was causing this!!!

Windmill cancer!   

 

[Gatorubet 29665]

[YGIFS 19445]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

I am thrilled to see the convergence of a potential killer storm and July 1 being the first day the good citizens of Louisiana can carry concealed firearms without ever having a class or a permit.

Those arguments over who was there first at the gas station pump are going to be far more interesting.

So like a literal "Mad Max: Ragin Cajun" sequel?  

Crack wise all you want; but firearms, nuclear warheads, and sharpie markers.  That's how you get out of a hurricane shitshow.   

Edited July 2 by YGIFS

[Hate 20059]

Yeah, this things needs to stay the fuck out of SE\TX and LA.  It needs to make landfall on a due north trajectory at the King Ranch as a barely Cat 1 hurricane. 

Edited July 2 by Hate

[tx 3 putt 75476]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yeah, this things needs to stay the fuck out of SE\TX and LA.  It needs to make landfall on a due north trajectory at the King Ranch as a barely Cat 1 hurricane. 

Kennedy county 

350 people, probably 35000 heads of cattle 

[Hate 20059]

ok...slightly North-Northwest

[YGIFS 19445]

Just now, Hate said:

ok...slightly North-Northwest

We now go live to our meteorologist on the ground, but also kinda up in the air, Cary Grant.  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11729]

3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

We now go live to our meteorologist on the ground, but also kinda up in the air, Cary Grant.  

[UTexasFight 9298]

She’s a Cat 5

 

[Zonahorn 7968]

 

[UTexasFight 9298]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

Yeah, this things needs to stay the fuck out of SE\TX and LA.  It needs to make landfall on a due north trajectory at the King Ranch as a barely Cat 1 hurricane. 

We may get this.

Will be interesting to see how well it holds together once it gets past Jamaica

[dcbc 14248]

10 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

hopefully the Yucatan can weaken this beast 

I have a friend who is supposed to be flying into Cancun for a wedding on 7/4.  I told him that flight was quite unlikely to happen, regardless of what the airline was telling him today.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

1 minute ago, dcbc said:

I have a friend who is supposed to be flying into Cancun for a wedding on 7/4.  I told him that flight was quite unlikely to happen, regardless of what the airline was telling him today.

It might take off, it might. I would not be there though cuz getting out my be a pain.

[Skipper 5967]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

It might take off, it might. I would not be there though cuz getting out my be a pain.

Yeah, fuck risking that.  

[dcbc 14248]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

It might take off, it might. I would not be there though cuz getting out my be a pain.

That was definitely part of our discussion.  Cancun seems less fun with the beaches wrecked, a bunch of people stranded, and no power.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

4 minutes ago, dcbc said:

That was definitely part of our discussion.  Cancun seems less fun with the beaches wrecked, a bunch of people stranded, and no power.

Well the looters can be fun if you can get some cartel protection and steal tequila to keep them going

[HornOnTheBayou 8853]

15 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

It might take off, it might. I would not be there though cuz getting out my be a pain.

Good advice for the groom.

[YGIFS 19445]

28 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I have a friend who is supposed to be flying into Cancun for a wedding on 7/4.  I told him that flight was quite unlikely to happen, regardless of what the airline was telling him today.

Pastor, "Hey, look on the bright side folks...rain on your wedding day is good luck from God." 

Couple, "It's not just rain, your holiness.  It's a Cat 5 that's going to kill us all."

Pastor, "There is no God."  

[SurlyBDR 22413]

3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

rain on your wedding day

 

[Biff Tannen 45151]

I’m scheduled to go to isla mujeres the first week of August. Hope it’s still there. 

[YGIFS 19445]

1 minute ago, SurlyBDR said:

 

Isn't Climate Denialism-cum-Hurricane Alarmism kinda ironic, don't you think?  

[Blotto 23286]

37 minutes ago, dcbc said:

That was definitely part of our discussion.  Cancun seems less fun with the beaches wrecked, a bunch of people stranded, and no power.

We actually picked Cancun for the Y2K shenanigans. We figured they barely  used computers  in the first place. But yeah, cancun after a cat 5  plowed its anus would  be suboptimal.

[Henry Hill 3156]

10 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Isn't Climate Denialism-cum-Hurricane Alarmism kinda ironic, don't you think?  

[YGIFS 19445]

6 minutes ago, Henry Hill said:

Pos rep.  Wasn't he supposedly the guy that she wrote that song about?  Or an I thinking of "You're so Vain" by Carly.......the name of the next hurricane that's totally not gonna kill thousands of people?  I bet you think this storm is about you, baby.  

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2740]

10 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Just spent half an hour researching and google mapping Carriacou. Looks like a pretty cool little vacation spot. Anyone ever been there? 

 

Moored there for a night on a chartered catamaran trip in 2018. Probably one of the coolest islands I’ve ever seen. The Grenadines are fucking awesome man-

Spoiler

Spoiler

Also, to keep this thread [serious]- there’s been a pronounced NW jog on IR tonight (not looking good for Jamaica sadly)

 

Edited July 2 by Wilcox Cummingtonite

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2740]

Hnggg

[locodos 5247]

15 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Just spent half an hour researching and google mapping Carriacou. Looks like a pretty cool little vacation spot. Anyone ever been there? 

CSB: Back in the early 00s I put together a company in Grenada and was looking at buying some of the smaller private islands for development or resale.   White Island just SE of Carriacou was one of the targets.   Fucking beautiful and remote but ultimately the geology wasn't right and the politics, welp that's a whole 'nother thing entirely.

I can assure you that everything but the volcanic plug was under water...  Very flat and low

 

Still for sale...  $9.5 mill  (IIRC it was ~1.6 back in the day)

 

[InkaUtexas 24932]

1 hour ago, locodos said:

CSB: Back in the early 00s I put together a company in Grenada and was looking at buying some of the smaller private islands for development or resale.   White Island just SE of Carriacou was one of the targets.   Fucking beautiful and remote but ultimately the geology wasn't right and the politics, welp that's a whole 'nother thing entirely.

I can assure you that everything but the volcanic plug was under water...  Very flat and low

 

Still for sale...  $9.5 mill  (IIRC it was ~1.6 back in the day)

 

Thanks for buying up assets for just the few you tourism colonist. (I kid). But serious, grew up in the Carib and it is common sentiment we give zero fucks when all the boats and villas get flattened. Aid comes running in, but not a lot for the locals. Some tin, bottled water, etc.

But locals get jobs to build anew and there are always suckers in the US and the EU who do not study the history, topography and weather of the region who will spend $$$$ to come on back.

What do you do now? Work for the Chinese overseas investment group? They will buy anything.

[Bert Orange 1094]

1 hour ago, locodos said:

CSB: Back in the early 00s I put together a company in Grenada and was looking at buying some of the smaller private islands for development or resale.   White Island just SE of Carriacou was one of the targets.   Fucking beautiful and remote but ultimately the geology wasn't right and the politics, welp that's a whole 'nother thing entirely.

I can assure you that everything but the volcanic plug was under water...  Very flat and low

 

Still for sale...  $9.5 mill  (IIRC it was ~1.6 back in the day)

 

What were you gonna name it?  Phallus Flats?  Penis Peninsula? Cock Cay? Rod Reef?

Edited July 2 by Bert Orange

[Bert Orange 1094]

Islet You Lick My Volcano Ballz

[Okie State 3706]

Dickbutt Island

[SydneyCarton 47471]

5 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Hnggg

I swear, once these guys start moving, they keep moving. I'd bet dollars to donuts most of those lines start shifting towards Houston the next few days. Guess we'll see what Jamaica and that wind sheer does to it today and tomorrow. But either way, I guess it looks good for central Texas. But man, I don't need a third fucking storm with massive power loss in the last damn 60 days. 

Edited July 2 by SydneyCarton

[immamac 41718]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I swear, once these guys start moving, they keep moving. I'd bet dollars to donuts most of those lines start shifting towards Houston the next few days. Guess we'll see what Jamaica and tahat wind sheer does to it today and tomorrow. But either way, I guess it looks good for central Texas. But man, I don't need a third fucking storm with massive power loss in the last damn 60 days. 

That natural grass field in dkr ain't gonna water itself. 

[SydneyCarton 47471]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

That natural grass field in dkr ain't gonna water itself. 

Too soon. By about 2 years...

[twosheds 370]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I swear, once these guys start moving, they keep moving. I'd bet dollars to donuts most of those lines start shifting towards Houston the next few days. Guess we'll see what Jamaica and tahat wind sheer does to it today and tomorrow. But either way, I guess it looks good for central Texas. But man, I don't need a third fucking storm with massive power loss in the last damn 60 days. 

It happens over and over.  The early models have landfall at Tampico and then 7 days later Morgan City is staring down the barrel.  

[immamac 41718]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Too soon. By about 2 years...

I thought year 1 of SEC play, damn. 

[UTexasFight 9298]

10 minutes ago, twosheds said:

It happens over and over.  The early models have landfall at Tampico and then 7 days later Morgan City is staring down the barrel.  

Had to wait and see what that ridge of high pressure currently sitting over us was going to do.

i guess the original models didn’t have it sliding over to S-E-C! over the weekend rolling out the welcome mat for Beryl

[Zonahorn 7968]

Edited July 2 by Zonahorn

[Jiggy-Z 3422]

1 hour ago, Bert Orange said:

What were you gonna name it?  Phallus Flats?  Penis Peninsula? Cock Cay? Rod Reef?

Turks and Cockos

7 inch beach

Erection island

Shlong sound

Were you working for the Chub Group?

[Goofyboy 3010]

Beryl is coming to Houston.

[MissingInAction 24416]

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

Dickbutt Island

I'm in for tree fiddy.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

3 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Beryl is coming to Houston.

Cancel the rodeo?

[MissingInAction 24416]

Houston:

[utee94 15722]

10 hours ago, dcbc said:

I have a friend who is supposed to be flying into Cancun for a wedding on 7/4.  I told him that flight was quite unlikely to happen, regardless of what the airline was telling him today.

 

10 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

It might take off, it might. I would not be there though cuz getting out my be a pain.

 

10 hours ago, Skipper said:

Yeah, fuck risking that.  

 

10 hours ago, dcbc said:

That was definitely part of our discussion.  Cancun seems less fun with the beaches wrecked, a bunch of people stranded, and no power.

Yeah if the airline can get in and out before the hurricane, there's no way they'll cancel the flight.  They'll gladly drop you, and strand you, without a second thought.

Several years back we booked a package vacation through our travel agent, for Jamaica, in July.  So of course a hurricane decides to meander through the Caribbean, just as we were set to depart. The last couple of days before we were supposed to leave Austin, we kept calling the airline to see if they were going to cancel, and they said "nope business as usual."  We got nervous at one day out, pulled the plug on the Caribbean and went to Los Cabos instead-- we had paid for the hurricane insurance so it was a free change in itinerary for us.

That hurricane didn't end up hitting Jamaica, they just caught heavy rain bands for days, but it did plow directly into Playa del Carmen/Tulum.  We met a couple at our hotel in Cabo who were originally supposed to go to Playa del Carmen, but had bailed the same time we did and opted for Cabo.  But they had friends who decided to go ahead to Playa.  As soon as they landed in Cancun, they were informed their hotels were closed and they were bussed to a high school gymnasium somewhere around the area, where they sheltered for the next couple of days as the hurricane blew right over them. 

So yeah, the airlines aren't your friend, they don't care, at all.

Edited July 2 by utee94

[SarkAfterDark 1683]

West wall deteriorating a bit. Shear taking affect. Guess we’ll see how much it weakens the storm.