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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
in Daily Texan

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Zepol87
Zepol87

I was supposed to fly to Tampa today for the week but decided to say fuck that and went to our Vegas office. Got a bitch ass email from my director in Denver who is a trumper telling me I didn’t get a

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10,466

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11 minutes ago, TXLNGHRN10 said:

So if it plows up through Brownsville do the lakes get any rain? 

Depending on the angle of approach, probably? As long as it’s moving west-northwest, seems like anything from Brownsville to Mustang Island typically gets us at least some rain.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,659

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1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:


Kennedy county, then straight up 37>>35

This is the way…

and looks to be exactly what that AVNI model is showing on the previous page.

 

#teamAVNI

 

i remember years ago, I think it was for Harvey, good ol Jim Spencer answering the question, “could we ever see hurricane force winds in Austin?”

answer was: if there was a cat 4/5 making landfall at corpus and running right up 37/35, yeah. Could still be cat 1 by Austin.

 

give me cat 1 or strong TS coming in Kennedy County

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ScottS

ScottS 1,094

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San Patricio county resident checking in.  Just bought plywood to board up the windows in my house.  Which will mean now that the hurricane will come nowhere near Texas.  Or at least nowhere near the coastal bend.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26,387

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55 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

give me cat 1 or strong TS coming in Kennedy County

Yep, was said a few days ago that is the best scenario. Few people, lots of cows, then lots of rain where it is needed.
 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77,965

Posted
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26 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Jamaica about to get bubble screened.


winds up to 180 mph …

7:30PM Tuesday Beryl Update:

I'll be honest with you. My stomach is starting to turn a little bit right now with what the Hurricane Hunters are finding inside Hurricane Beryl. They just sampled winds over 180 mph while flying into the northern eye wall, which is not what I expected based on what it looks like on satellite. Our satellite estimation techniques say this should be around a 130 mph storm. At this time the National Hurricane Center is putting the estimated winds at 150 mph, a formidable category 4 hurricane. 

But Beryl has been hit by wind shear all day long, and that was supposed knock it down more than this. The satellite presentation has degraded some, but for now, the core of the storm has not been severely impacted by that shear.

If you've been following along, you know that the stronger this storm stays, the more northward it will move. I still maintain that we need to see how strong it is tomorrow once it gets to the other side of Jamaica to have a clearer picture of what it will do over the Gulf of Mexico.

But it's not encouraging for our fellow humans in Jamaica to see the storm doing this right now, and if it continues to defy expectations by staying stronger than expected, it will increase the chances that a hurricane eventually hits Texas.

Keep your guard up, talk out your hurricane plans with your family, and be ready to take action later this week if needed.

The next forecast track comes out by 10PM. More to come.

abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

IMG_0907.jpeg

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,392

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5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


winds up to 180 mph …

7:30PM Tuesday Beryl Update:

I'll be honest with you. My stomach is starting to turn a little bit right now with what the Hurricane Hunters are finding inside Hurricane Beryl. They just sampled winds over 180 mph while flying into the northern eye wall, which is not what I expected based on what it looks like on satellite. Our satellite estimation techniques say this should be around a 130 mph storm. At this time the National Hurricane Center is putting the estimated winds at 150 mph, a formidable category 4 hurricane. 

But Beryl has been hit by wind shear all day long, and that was supposed knock it down more than this. The satellite presentation has degraded some, but for now, the core of the storm has not been severely impacted by that shear.

If you've been following along, you know that the stronger this storm stays, the more northward it will move. I still maintain that we need to see how strong it is tomorrow once it gets to the other side of Jamaica to have a clearer picture of what it will do over the Gulf of Mexico.

But it's not encouraging for our fellow humans in Jamaica to see the storm doing this right now, and if it continues to defy expectations by staying stronger than expected, it will increase the chances that a hurricane eventually hits Texas.

Keep your guard up, talk out your hurricane plans with your family, and be ready to take action later this week if needed.

The next forecast track comes out by 10PM. More to come.

abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

IMG_0907.jpeg

Weirdly they deleted that 730 update.

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PTINS

PTINS 3,489

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Posted (edited)

Just mousing around on this website, and ran an animation that ends up the plot Monday morning. Beryl in S. Texas migrating SE to NW, and the remnants of stormy weather near DFW moving NW to SE. With all the moisture in the area, it will be clear and sunny in the ATX.

tropicaltidbits.com. (sorry, link to animation doesn't work)

image.thumb.png.02829551b65395659684d24af6dd008f.png

Edited by PTINS
typo
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UnivTex34

UnivTex34 1,763

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2 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Jamaica is in deep trouble.  Dean-esque. 

My brother got married this weekend. Was supposed to fly there tomorrow. Luckily cooler heads prevailed. Was hoping it would stay south and they would just be delaying honeymoon a week. Sure doesn’t look like it now.

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CoTex

CoTex 1,172

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Posted

Arrived STT about 1.  Couple of cocktails and then ferry ride to Tortola.  That ferry ride looked like the intro to Victory at Sea and there was vomit.  Not from me but I’m not claiming any superpower.  It was a rough ride.

45 minute ride took 1:25.

All this is hurricane swell coming up from the south/Beryl and, although I’m on the boat in Roadtown, I’m not super excited about what we face tomorrow.  Might still be a little sporty.

 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26,387

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2 minutes ago, CoTex said:

Arrived STT about 1.  Couple of cocktails and then ferry ride to Tortola.  That ferry ride looked like the intro to Victory at Sea and there was vomit.  Not from me but I’m not claiming any superpower.  It was a rough ride.

45 minute ride took 1:25.

All this is hurricane swell coming up from the south/Beryl and, although I’m on the boat in Roadtown, I’m not super excited about what we face tomorrow.  Might still be a little sporty.

 

So scoping out the US Invasion force for the 4th of July. I like that.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,431

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5 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

I just called all the neighbors and told them board up the windows, loadup the wives, kids, pets, valuables and head north by Saturday morning or they might find your bodies in the trees.  The end is near.  

Bad advice.  

You should’ve told them that with a simple razor blade and some black pen ink you can inscribe your Social Security number on your arm so they can identify your body after the storm.

Amateurs. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26,387

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Posted

I hope Berly assfart really starts to turn it down.

Having survived the night as Hurricane Beryl tore across her idyllic home of Union Island with ferocious force, Katrina Coy was taken aback by the extent of the devastation which lay before her.

Virtually every building on the island, which lies off St Vincent and the Grenadines, has been razed or badly damaged, she said.

“Union Island is in a terrible state after Beryl passed. Literally, almost the whole island is homeless,” said Ms Coy in a video message.

“There are hardly any buildings left standing. Houses are flattened, roads are blocked, the electricity poles are down in the streets.”

Fisherman and fishing guide Sebastien Sailly agreed.

“Everything is lost. I have nowhere to live right now,” he said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c724x1rjlpno

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,431

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/030247.shtml

Quote 
4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.

They don’t know how strong it will be or where it’s going, but other than that…..nailed it!

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77,965

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For those asking, there is no “most likely” track for Beryl beyond Jamaica at this time. The Hurricane Center still stays there is “significant uncertainty” in the forecast over the Gulf. We have to see what it looks like tomorrow after it passes Jamaica.
 

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