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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
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Chopper

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Atlantic Hurricane Lull Puzzles Scientists - Meteorologists predicted a busy Atlantic hurricane season—and a recent lull in activity doesn’t negate that

by @meghanbartels.bsky.social in Scientific American (linked above)

tldr - It's complicated but Saharan dust may be reducing the amount of precipitation in a hurricane, and a band of air called the African easterly jet position has moved northward, which seems to reduce the number of waves that cause hurricanes. But hurricane season lasts until November so keep your guard up. 

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dieucla98

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Invest 90L is up and active, models are starting to develop this as well. Slow moving, very little steering, probably cat 1 max - problem is this might just sit on the Texas coast and provide copious amount of rainfall to an already saturated region.

 

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chainsaw

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1 minute ago, dieucla98 said:

Invest 90L is up and active, models are starting to develop this as well. Slow moving, very little steering, probably cat 1 max - problem is this might just sit on the Texas coast and provide copious amount of rainfall to an already saturated region.

 

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utee94

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1 hour ago, dieucla98 said:

Invest 90L is up and active, models are starting to develop this as well. Slow moving, very little steering, probably cat 1 max - problem is this might just sit on the Texas coast and provide copious amount of rainfall to an already saturated region.

 

And zero rainfall to the portions of Texas that so desperately need it.  We've seen this movie before, it sucks.

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chainsaw

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

2020 would like to have a word with you.   Went through the entire English alphabet, went into the Greek letters and had named storms in December.  Great times.

The 05 season featured a named storm churning in the Atlantic as VY tucked an ran in January 2006.

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NorthLoop

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11 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

2020 would like to have a word with you.   Went through the entire English alphabet, went into the Greek letters and had named storms in December.  Great times.

I was being a tad bit facetious but it does seem like every single year they say "oh this is gonna be a bad hurricane season" and 9 times out of 10 it's below average. 

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HouTex

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8 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

I was being a tad bit facetious but it does seem like every single year they say "oh this is gonna be a bad hurricane season" and 9 times out of 10 it's below average. 

I was bored several weeks ago and looked up the predictions vs the outcomes since around 2000.  Usually they are not way off either way.  Knowing the law of averages the forecasters rarely make predictions that are way off the average.  The official prediction is usually just a few storms higher or lower than the historical average.  And, not surprisingly, the actual number is not way off.  Sometimes they really do miss it though.  Lately, they really don’t want to be caught way off on the low side so it’s safer to say it will be average to above average in terms of number of named storms.  My take away is that they are doing their best to predict it, but they really don’t know.  

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dieucla98

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15 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Did you get the phone upgrade?

So what would this storm be in the Oh Shit range?

Weaker, it goes more west. Stronger, more towards LA. For sake of not getting flooded out (again), you're probably hoping for the high end of the oh shit range. 

I'm assuming you're in Houston. 

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InkaUtexas

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1 hour ago, dieucla98 said:

Weaker, it goes more west. Stronger, more towards LA. For sake of not getting flooded out (again), you're probably hoping for the high end of the oh shit range. 

I'm assuming you're in Houston. 

Nope, but was planning a get away.

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45013

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4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Mother Nature, show me on the doll where Lake Charles touched you…

Seriously.  I drove through there a few years ago right after they had been hit with two hurricanes back to back.  Lots of roofs with blue tarps and trash strewn about everywhere.  

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Sawbonz

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4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Seriously.  I drove through there a few years ago right after they had been hit with two hurricanes back to back.  Lots of roofs with blue tarps and trash strewn about everywhere.  

You thought that had something to do with hurricanes?

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royiv

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2 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Houston Area getting grazed by winds up to 75 mph - how many millions of customers lose power?  How many weeks to restore this time?

The whole thing is being held together with duct tape and twine after the derecho and Beryl.

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txduck87

txduck87 972

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Houston Area getting grazed by winds up to 75 mph - how many millions of customers lose power?  How many weeks to restore this time?

Got my text from entergy tonight to prepare for outages. I live in the woodlands so the 1/2 rain should be devastating.
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atomheartbevo

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On 9/3/2024 at 11:37 AM, Storm the Field said:

Latest update. Nothing too much to worry about along the TX coast at the moment.

On 9/4/2024 at 9:38 AM, Mother mopar said:

Not entirely, new models show it going west to Mexico, assuming it doesn't develop.

On 9/4/2024 at 9:59 AM, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, that's what the last model showed for...right up until 2 days before I lost power for a week plus. 

You guys, when a storm looks in our direction, please do not make eye contact with it.

 

 

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Bevo

Bevo 13436

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On 7/9/2024 at 9:08 AM, Captainant said:

Boy howdy, we sure are gonna have a fun fucking time with the increased severe weather from increased thermal energy in the global climate. All those tornados are powered by the abundant hot water in the gulf contributing energy to the storm

On 9/6/2024 at 9:01 AM, Chopper said:

Atlantic Hurricane Lull Puzzles Scientists - Meteorologists predicted a busy Atlantic hurricane season—and a recent lull in activity doesn’t negate that

by @meghanbartels.bsky.social in Scientific American (linked above)

tldr - It's complicated but Saharan dust may be reducing the amount of precipitation in a hurricane, and a band of air called the African easterly jet position has moved northward, which seems to reduce the number of waves that cause hurricanes. But hurricane season lasts until November so keep your guard up.


What's the latest on this?

 

 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29538

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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Latest spaghetti models have Francine coming in just a little SW of Lafayette.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/06L_tracks_latest.png

Forget the meteorological models.  I settled my case Friday with State Farm for my Ida damage, which means I don’t have my roof replaced yet.   That means the storm is going directly over my house in New Orleans.. and State Farm won’t have to pay for the damage from the water that comes through my roof after it blows my tarp off.

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