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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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19 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

"Beryl."  How embarrassing it will be to have your home destroyed by that bitch your meemaw hates because she won first place at the county fair jam and jelly competition with the recipe for mustang grape jelly she stole from meemaw's kitchen.

Not that meemaw's still bitter or anything.

I had a Mimi, not a meemaw, but damn could she cook some jelly - muscadine, faux strawberry fig, you name it.  Thanks for the warm memories on a Friday morning - and please pass the biscuits.

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22 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

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Intensity guidance is on board with that actually developing

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SHIPs is especially notable, because it is the most reliable and used by the NHC for judging the environment. If this doesn’t get buried in Central America, conditions are favorable for a storm to form.

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The other big deal is the wave in the MDR forecast to develop. ENS suites from GFS and Euro are bullish and global models are showing development. The 12Z operational Euro run was Dennis/Emily level insanity. I’ll post the run when I get the chance.

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From Houston weather man …..

Okay, let me jump out ahead of the images that are likely to go viral showing a hurricane slamming into Texas around July 9th.

Here's what we know: A tropical wave that recently departed Africa is now given a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days as it tracks westward through the Atlantic. We also know that despite the Saharan dust to the north of this wave, our computer guidance is highly bullish that this system eventually spins up into the season's first hurricane either as it approaches the Caribbean or once it gets into the Caribbean Sea. Why? The circulation around the wave can still fend off the dust to its north while drawing fresh tropical moisture from the south, and it will do so while moving over warm water in a low wind shear environment.

Long-timers know that any Caribbean cruiser needs to be watched for possible impacts along the Gulf Coast down the road, but the road to the Gulf of Mexico is littered with uncertainty at this time. It's just too early to know whether or not there will ever be any impacts to Texas.

Like I said last night, we have a lot of time to figure out where this will go and what it will do, so let's just all stay aware of what's happening for now. After all, it is hurricane season, and please think before you share any posts circulating around (including mine!).

We'll still watch the wave out ahead of it, too, for any minor impacts to Texas that could start this weekend.

For a reliable overview of what's happening in the tropics from a source you can trust, you can always head to our Daily Tropical Weather Update page: abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

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This is when the weather nerds get Viagra’d off the long range models and start wish casting. Lot of variables in play still.

Throwing out panic too soon and having that be a false warning is going to make people numb when the real deal actually threatens the coast.

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8 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

This is when the weather nerds get Viagra’d off the long range models and start wish casting. Lot of variables in play still.

Throwing out panic too soon and having that be a false warning is going to make people numb when the real deal actually threatens the coast.

That Euro run is a marvel of insanity, hopefully I didn’t come off as wishcasting. A storm is very likely to form in the MDR, and getting a storm in June/July in the MDR is always a bad sign

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1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

That Euro run is a marvel of insanity, hopefully I didn’t come off as wishcasting. A storm is very likely to form in the MDR, and getting a storm in June/July in the MDR is always a bad sign

Nobody on here usually gets too amped. I’m talking storm2k type peeps that bleeds into the YouTubers. Then it gets spread by every Karen on FB.

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Just now, Newdoc said:

Nobody on here usually gets too amped. I’m talking storm2k type peeps that bleeds into the YouTubers. Then it gets spread by every Karen on FB.

It's ok.  Our society has only two types of reactions to such things: 1) people who will rush out tomorrow to buy 4,000 rolls of TP, 10 flats of bottled water, and 400 cans of tuna, shoving people out of the way at the store, because a forecast said maybe there will be a hurricane somewhere, someday, and 2) those who will call the forecast a "hoax" even as their house is being bashed to kindling around them, then bitch about why the government didn't come rescue them while the wind was still blowing at 145 mph.  And pretty much nobody in between.

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2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

Nobody on here usually gets too amped. I’m talking storm2k type peeps that bleeds into the YouTubers. Then it gets spread by every Karen on FB.

Storm2k during a potential mega storm buildup is like surly during a coaching search. It's just people losing their minds, making up all kinds of stupid shit, grasping at whatever single data point validates their theory... It's fucking great.

We have curtains and they have a blue dumpster. That's the only difference.

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I’ve learned to trust the euro model. But I’m going on vacation in a few days and I live in Austin so I don’t give a shit. MIL in Houston won’t evacuate no matter what anyways

I’ve learned to trust the euro model. But I’m going on vacation in a few days and I live in Austin so I don’t give a shit. MIL in Houston won’t evacuate no matter what anyways

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It's ok.  Our society has only two types of reactions to such things: 1) people who will rush out tomorrow to buy 4,000 rolls of TP, 10 flats of bottled water, and 400 cans of tuna, shoving people out of the way at the store, because a forecast said maybe there will be a hurricane somewhere, someday, and 2) those who will call the forecast a "hoax" even as their house is being bashed to kindling around them, then bitch about why the government didn't come rescue them while the wind was still blowing at 145 mph.  And pretty much nobody in between.

Dude, stop with the nobody in between stuff.  I have 400 cans of tuna, 570 packages of saltine crackers, and a case of Crystal hot sauce, well that there is heaven.   I might need some the of the proffered TP.  But that’s beside the point.

Edited by Judge Roybeanbag
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18 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Dude, stop with the nobody in between stuff.  I have 400 cans of tuna, 570 packages of saltine crackers, and a case of Crystal hot sauce, well that there is heaven.   I might need some the of the proffered TP.  But that’s beside the point.

I thought every surly household had a bidet.

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1 minute ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

This is the city of Austin.  No water for a bidet.  I wipe with spandex. 

 

Damn, that could be dangerous if it stretches and slingshots across the room.

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9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

From Houston weather man …..

Okay, let me jump out ahead of the images that are likely to go viral showing a hurricane slamming into Texas around July 9th.

Here's what we know: A tropical wave that recently departed Africa is now given a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days as it tracks westward through the Atlantic. We also know that despite the Saharan dust to the north of this wave, our computer guidance is highly bullish that this system eventually spins up into the season's first hurricane either as it approaches the Caribbean or once it gets into the Caribbean Sea. Why? The circulation around the wave can still fend off the dust to its north while drawing fresh tropical moisture from the south, and it will do so while moving over warm water in a low wind shear environment.

Long-timers know that any Caribbean cruiser needs to be watched for possible impacts along the Gulf Coast down the road, but the road to the Gulf of Mexico is littered with uncertainty at this time. It's just too early to know whether or not there will ever be any impacts to Texas.

Like I said last night, we have a lot of time to figure out where this will go and what it will do, so let's just all stay aware of what's happening for now. After all, it is hurricane season, and please think before you share any posts circulating around (including mine!).

We'll still watch the wave out ahead of it, too, for any minor impacts to Texas that could start this weekend.

For a reliable overview of what's happening in the tropics from a source you can trust, you can always head to our Daily Tropical Weather Update page: abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

IMG_0843.jpeg

 

The circulation around the wave can still fend off the dust to its north while drawing fresh tropical moisture from the south, and it will do so while moving over warm water in a low wind shear environment.
 

 

this fucker is more prepared than the Wehrmacht marching across France in 1940

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Posted (edited)

If this forms into a hurricane before arriving at the Lesser Antilles (which is looking more and more expected), it will be the earliest hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles since 1933. Apparently, 1933 was a bad year too.

Edited by dieucla98
Hurricane, not named storm.
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INVEST 95L UPDATE: Things are about to get interesting y’all. Like I was saying yesterday, the NHC has officially given our tropical wave #2 an invest tag as it has an 80% chance of forming into a tropical storm or greater. Here are the latest spaghetti models showing the track it might take… Also included are intensity predictions derived from computer ensembles. Notice how some future tracks head into the Gulf by next weekend…👀 Also notice how computers suggest this will be not only the first hurricane of the season, but potentially a major hurricane.🌀 Me and the other meteorologists at 25 News Now will have a close watchful eye on this system as it approaches late next week.
 

 

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On 6/26/2024 at 1:09 PM, Zonahorn said:

The other big deal is the wave in the MDR forecast to develop. ENS suites from GFS and Euro are bullish and global models are showing development. The 12Z operational Euro run was Dennis/Emily level insanity. I’ll post the run when I get the chance.

MDR?  Que es?

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