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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


Zonahorn

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13 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Now TD2

NEW: Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the central Atlantic, and it is predicted to be a category 2 hurricane as it impacts the Lesser Antilles on Monday. If this verifies, it will be unprecedented to see a hurricane this strong impacting the islands so early in the season. If you have a vacation planned to the Caribbean next week, please pay close attention to the forecast in the days ahead.

There is no way to tell right now with any certainty if this will ever impact the Gulf of Mexico, much less Texas, but IF it were to impact Texas, it would likely be sometime in the July 7th - July 9th window.

As best as I can tell, the stronger the storm is over the central Caribbean, the more likely it is to head northwest for the Gulf of Mexico. A weaker storm will head westward toward Central America. A huge wildcard is any direct interaction it may have with Caribbean islands. So I'm not losing any sleep over it right now, but I am keeping an eye on it for you.

We'll keep you posted. abc13.com/tropicalupdate
 

 

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5 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I'm no expert, but I can count lines. Assuming each noodle has the same odds as any other, the likelihood it hits Texas seems to be pretty low. 

Way too early to know. The amount of things each of those lines takes into account is insane - these runs take hours to do on some of the most powerful servers we have. And the slightest wiggle in any of those inputs that wasn't predicted correctly can wildly change the final output. 

Edited by dieucla98
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4 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Way too early to know. The amount of things each of those lines takes into account is insane - these runs take hours to do on some of the most powerful servers we have. And the slightest wiggle in any of those inputs that wasn't predicted correctly can wildly change the final output. 

something something, your mom's cone of uncertainty.

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