2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Hagbard Celine 11157]

north carolina update

too much to highlight

141k customers remain without power

93 water systems remain on boil notice

47 water treatment plants without power

"The state of North Carolina is NOT turning away civil aviation support so long as it has been coordinated through the proper channels with NC Emergency Management.  If you or someone you know is interested in providing civil aviation support and don’t know where to coordinate your efforts, please call my office and we will help you get in touch with the right folks."

https://edwards.house.gov/media/press-releases/hurricane-helene-update-9-congressman-edwards

[tx 3 putt 78467]

not good ….

 

[Updawg 2378]

Brutal.

[Gatorubet 30627]

Tampa area had 8 to 10 feet storm surge when Helena jogged a bit west and north. As it was, parts were flooded. The widow of an ex law school classmate lives near a Canal and their 5 foot flood wall was almost topped.

A 15 foot storm surge into Tampa Bay would be catastrophic.  Ignore the wind damage.  That’s a lot of lanais that will be blown off pools and into the interior of the state.  people built timber McMansions instead of the one story Florida pillboxes I lived in and grew up in.    I don’t know how FEMA will be able to contend with both situations at the same time - but they sure as shit better be getting ready for a whole lot of military presence right now

Edited October 6 by Gatorubet

[UT_OB1 2260]

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

north carolina update

too much to highlight

141k customers remain without power

93 water systems remain on boil notice

47 water treatment plants without power

"The state of North Carolina is NOT turning away civil aviation support so long as it has been coordinated through the proper channels with NC Emergency Management.  If you or someone you know is interested in providing civil aviation support and don’t know where to coordinate your efforts, please call my office and we will help you get in touch with the right folks."

https://edwards.house.gov/media/press-releases/hurricane-helene-update-9-congressman-edwards

That storm was 10x worse than Beryl. If that’d hit houston, it would instead be only 141k customers WITH power ~12 days after 

Edited October 6 by UT_OB1

[naija 2961]

when is the great migration from these areas expected to begin? 

[tx 3 putt 78467]

i hope people get out. i used to be stay and stick it out guy, i gtfo now every time …

 

[tx 3 putt 78467]

[Helobious 9755]

I truly didn’t think it was scientifically possible for a hurricane to form in the gulf and head east. This has to be a first.

[BamaATL 16593]

Just now, Helobious said:

I truly didn’t think it was scientifically possible for a hurricane to form in the gulf and head east. This has to be a first.

I don't believe that it is a first, but rare.  If you think about the jet stream this seems to make some sense.  What does seem rare is that it would pick up so much energy so quickly.  

[SizzleChest 8302]

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

[tx 3 putt 78467]

8 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I truly didn’t think it was scientifically possible for a hurricane to form in the gulf and head east. This has to be a first.

 

oct fronts blowing through ?

[MissingInAction 25478]

Uh it's controlled by the lizard vampires, duh wake up sheeple 

[InkaUtexas 26795]

22 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Uh it's controlled by the lizard vampires, duh wake up sheeple 

Reverse vampires.

And wonder if this high pressure sitting over us made it say nope, I am gonna take a hard right.

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

1 hour ago, naija said:

when is the great migration from these areas expected to begin? 

Next weekend, I would guess.

[tx 3 putt 78467]

damn …

 

[Updawg 2378]

All that debris will just be flying/floating around creating more damage

I guess one positive is this is so close they haven’t had time to repair/replace from the last one

[MissingInAction 25478]

Florida will be underwater in a decade.

Edited October 6 by MissingInAction

[Bevo 13821]

8 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Florida will be underwater in a decade.

 

[Underdog 29100]

[CHIEF 5200]

4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Tampa area had 8 to 10 feet storm surge when Helena jogged a bit west and north. As it was, parts were flooded. The widow of an ex law school classmate lives near a Canal and their 5 foot flood wall was almost topped.

A 15 foot storm surge into Tampa Bay would be catastrophic.  Ignore the wind damage.  That’s a lot of lanais that will be blown off pools and into the interior of the state.  people built timber McMansions instead of the one story Florida pillboxes I lived in and grew up in.    I don’t know how FEMA will be able to contend with both situations at the same time - but they sure as shit better be getting ready for a whole lot of military presence right now

Mrs. CHIEF's immediate boss lives two blocks off the beach in Indian Rocks, right south of Clearwater. He is staying in a travel trailer in Nashville, as his house in Florida got a three foot storm surge and needs to be gutted after Helene. Milton will be much worse after only a couple of weeks. We told him he needs to sell it and move back to Pennsylvania. I think we will see a mass immigration out of Florida, as insurance rates will be unsustainable, and people will just leave. A massive market crash is inevitable.

CHIEF

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2649]

3 hours ago, Helobious said:

I truly didn’t think it was scientifically possible for a hurricane to form in the gulf and head east. This has to be a first.

it's common if they develop this late in the season. that's why start of october is generally considered the end of texas hurricane season.  most gulf storms head east 

[Gatorubet 30627]

like EF Hutton, when Levi talks, people listen…

 

 

[Updawg 2378]

Mrs. CHIEF's immediate boss lives two blocks off the beach in Indian Rocks, right south of Clearwater. He is staying in a travel trailer in Nashville, as his house in Florida got a three foot storm surge and needs to be gutted after Helene. Milton will be much worse after only a couple of weeks. We told him he needs to sell it and move back to Pennsylvania. I think we will see a mass immigration out of Florida, as insurance rates will be unsustainable, and people will just leave. A massive market crash is inevitable.
CHIEF

The other problem they have is all those high rise condos are old and have huge costs to bring up to code etc. huge bills for people on fixed income etc. That condo disaster a few years ago exposed a lot

[Colonel Sanders 1392]

This is for Friday... Friday the 18th.  Still a ways out so hoping that if this turns into something it heads for Cuba.  Seems to be similar to the Wilma track from 2005.

[tx 3 putt 78467]

[Brew 3049]

If you want to see some really crazy footage, check out Blue Gabe’s latest video on YouTube. He toured Steinhatchee with a friend that lived there.  The neighborhoods are nothing but pilings left, the houses were completely washed away. It’s nuts driving through and it’s just pilings sticking up out of the ground and debris spread out everywhere. It’s also amazing that there weren’t more coastal deaths with the houses/neighborhoods just completely gone.

Edited October 7 by Brew

[BamaATL 16593]

35 minutes ago, Updawg said:

The other problem they have is all those high rise condos are old and have huge costs to bring up to code etc. huge bills for people on fixed income etc. That condo disaster a few years ago exposed a lot

Sort of funny how buildings built with laundered cocaine money weren't exactly the best.  

[fattyflattie 4640]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Sort of funny how buildings built with laundered cocaine money weren't exactly the best.  

Yet they’re still going up right along Rickenbacker Causeway.   Been here last few weeks and second time have to pack the equipment up, just in case.  Don’t know how the people that live here do it. 

[wild_turkey 3279]

when is the great migration from these areas expected to begin? 

I sort of expect that 20-30 years from now, many neighborhoods in Florida that are currently desirable places to live will be full of vacant and partially destroyed homes. Home insurance is already expensive and carriers are withdrawing from Florida and other high risk areas. With the increased frequency of major hurricanes causing significant financial losses, parts of Florida may become uninsurable, and then what? People can’t live in a home that may get destroyed any given year with no insurance.

[Updawg 2378]

It’s inevitable with these storm surges and global warming

[Hagbard Celine 11157]

sure they can live in an uninsurable home

they just can't get a mortgage for it

so it will become something like "cajun navy meets mad max" with a wall around orlando and the space coast and everything west and south abandoned to the sea and the gatahs

[HenryJames 67115]

Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

so it will become something like "cajun navy meets mad max" with a wall around orlando and the space coast and everything west and south abandoned to the sea and the gatahs

So Louisiana?

[heso 2848]

13 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I sort of expect that 20-30 years from now, many neighborhoods in Florida that are currently desirable places to live will be full of vacant and partially destroyed homes. Home insurance is already expensive and carriers are withdrawing from Florida and other high risk areas. With the increased frequency of major hurricanes causing significant financial losses, parts of Florida may become uninsurable, and then what? People can’t live in a home that may get destroyed any given year with no insurance.

You’ll see more and more homes without insurance and then when a hurricane comes through and destroys a neighborhood a bunch of them won’t bother repairing/rebuilding. Then home values will tank in neighborhoods where no one wants to buy in a place where a bunch of the houses are falling down. 

[BamaATL 16593]

8 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I sort of expect that 20-30 years from now, many neighborhoods in Florida that are currently desirable places to live will be full of vacant and partially destroyed homes. Home insurance is already expensive and carriers are withdrawing from Florida and other high risk areas. With the increased frequency of major hurricanes causing significant financial losses, parts of Florida may become uninsurable, and then what? People can’t live in a home that may get destroyed any given year with no insurance.

I don't get it now.  I've been all over Florida on business, and I just don't get the appeal at all.  That, of course, is entirely subjective, but to me it's crowded as all get out, they have traffic that would make Atlanta blush, it's architecturally ugly, everything is built on a sandbar, it's uninsuralbe, and at every turn you have a toll of some sort.  I get that people want to spend their later days somewhere warm, but man is that a lot to take to do it.  

I can't recall if it was here or somewhere else I saw it, but during Helene a woman broadcast her house flooding, and apparently she was killed.  Here's the added kicker, she and her husband had just moved there, spent their entire live savings to do so, and were depending on that as their end game.  I suppose without a note the plan was to live on SS money and enjoy whatever time they had.  They couldn't afford or choose not to pay for insurance, so of course she stayed to attempt to save her life savings.  Ultimately, that decision cost her life.  That's an incredibly sad tale, but what amazes me is that it will be far from the last time we read something like this.  

Unfortunately, and this is just my opinion, the dream that is Florida for a lot people is a big antiquated myth.  Despite all this, there appears to be no shortage of people that still want to pursue and attempt to live that myth.  

[Updawg 2378]

East side has been spared lately. Wait until Miami - Ft. Lauderdale - palm beach areas start getting nailed. It’s been a long time and overdue

They think they are immune

[Gatorubet 30627]

28 minutes ago, Updawg said:

East side has been spared lately. Wait until Miami - Ft. Lauderdale - palm beach areas start getting nailed. It’s been a long time and overdue

They think they are immune

eventually, some cat three or cat four is going to head north along the coast line and take out everything from Miami to Daytona. 

My house is +7, which makes me essentially a mountain dweller in New Orleans

[Updawg 2378]

Yeah. I know a bunch of people in that area that think it’s not possible because of Bahamas and whatever

[Updawg 2378]

Yeah. I know a bunch of people in that area that think it’s not possible because of Bahamas and whatever

Yeah. I know a bunch of people in that area that think it’s not possible because of Bahamas and whatever

[jimmyjazz 46967]

1 minute ago, Updawg said:

Yeah. I know a bunch of people in that area that think it’s not possible because of Bahamas and whatever

 

1 minute ago, Updawg said:

Yeah. I know a bunch of people in that area that think it’s not possible because of Bahamas and whatever

Yeah. I know a bunch of people in that area that think it’s not possible because of Bahamas and whatever

You can say that again.  And again.  And again.

[tx 3 putt 78467]

possible cat 4 …

 

[InkaUtexas 26795]

Tomorrow at work is going to be a shit show. The 9AM brief I am giving is going to be fun. Hey, um, you all ready for the response? What response? To the CAT 4 about to wreck the part of Florida I told you not to move the gear to.

Tampa is where one of the dudes wants to deploy a back up response team for Helene long term work. Why there? SOCOM. Yeah he is borderline Gravy Seal.

 

[Updawg 2378]

Are you a disaster scientist?

[InkaUtexas 26795]

4 minutes ago, Updawg said:

Are you a disaster scientist?

no, but i did stay at a holiday inn near one once.

Edited October 7 by InkaUtexas

[Brew 3049]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

I don't get it now.  I've been all over Florida on business, and I just don't get the appeal at all.  That, of course, is entirely subjective, but to me it's crowded as all get out, they have traffic that would make Atlanta blush, it's architecturally ugly, everything is built on a sandbar, it's uninsuralbe, and at every turn you have a toll of some sort.  I get that people want to spend their later days somewhere warm, but man is that a lot to take to do it.  

I can't recall if it was here or somewhere else I saw it, but during Helene a woman broadcast her house flooding, and apparently she was killed.  Here's the added kicker, she and her husband had just moved there, spent their entire live savings to do so, and were depending on that as their end game.  I suppose without a note the plan was to live on SS money and enjoy whatever time they had.  They couldn't afford or choose not to pay for insurance, so of course she stayed to attempt to save her life savings.  Ultimately, that decision cost her life.  That's an incredibly sad tale, but what amazes me is that it will be far from the last time we read something like this.  

Unfortunately, and this is just my opinion, the dream that is Florida for a lot people is a big antiquated myth.  Despite all this, there appears to be no shortage of people that still want to pursue and attempt to live that myth.  

There has been a lot to love about being in FL. The weather, the water, etc all made it worth the risk especially on the West Coast. These places that are getting hit now are places where people have lived their entire lives without the kind of damage you are seeing lately. My house that we sold was built in the 60’s and had never had more than a small amount of water in the lower level. With Ian it was at 8-10 feet.

The weather pattern has shifted and now you have storms coming directly into areas with no water depth and very flat, marshy, land areas. Milton is a good example coming on the back of Helene. You just don’t see them spin up like this and go directly East. Most come from the Caribbean, make the corner, and occasionally cut back like Ian did. This one is going to go from TD to hurricane in a straight line pushing water in front of it. If it hits Tampa Bay it is going to be a disaster like FL hasn’t seen in a long time.

[Gatorubet 30627]

11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Tomorrow at work is going to be a shit show. The 9AM brief I am giving is going to be fun. Hey, um, you all ready for the response? What response?

To the CAT 4 about to wreck the part of Florida I told you not to move the gear to.

Tampa is where one of the dudes wants to deploy a back up response team for Helene long term work. Why there? SOCOM. Yeah he is borderline Gravy Seal.

 

This is how I read that.

[fattyflattie 4640]

Well shit. Was hoping to fly out early Thursday but not looking so hot.  Feel terrible for the folks on the west coast getting slammed back to back. 

[Pato del Muerto 53330]

I showed up in the ft Myers area after Charlie and Dennis had come through, and just in time for Frances to slide north.  They’ve been this busy in the recent past. 

[Mother mopar 3379]

There's a reason it's called Valdumpster.

[Hollywood 411]

Not looking good for Tampa:

 

Storm Surge

The water could reach the following heights due to storm surge:

• Anclote River, FL to Englewood – 8-12 feet
• Tampa Bay – 8-12 feet
• Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL – 5-10 feet
• Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL – 5-10 feet
• Charlotte Harbor- 5-10 feet
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL – 4-7 feet
• Suwanee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL – 3-5 feet