2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Bevo Num1 1,007]

That shit went from a Category 1 to a 3 in less than 6 hours. 

[bolverk 29,456]

Milton is already a Category 3

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/071100.shtml?

[bolverk 29,456]

Potential storm surge. Red is 6+ feet.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/05/weather/milton-hurricane-florida

Fort Myers

 

Tampa / St. Petersburg

 

Cedar Key

[randomhorn 1,652]

29 minutes ago, Bevo Num1 said:

That shit went from a Category 1 to a 3 in less than 6 hours. 

Damn that was fast

[Ogie Ogilthorpe 639]

At work now in Naples, house is far enough inland that storm surge won't be an issue. Condo in St Pete is on 2nd floor overlooking Boca Ciega Bay, first floor was good during Helene so not expecting any water issues from Milton. 

 

Set a ring camera up over the bay with battery backup so will try to post updates:

 

8:45 Monday nice and calm

[randomhorn 1,652]

2 minutes ago, Ogie Ogilthorpe said:

At work now in Naples, house is far enough inland that storm surge won't be an issue. Condo in St Pete is on 2nd floor overlooking Boca Ciega Bay, first floor was good during Helene so not expecting any water issues from Milton. 

Good luck, homie. Hopefully you don’t lose water or power 🤘🏻

[randomhorn 1,652]

MacDill is going to be hurting for a bit

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,419]

I'm not a religious man but I'm starting to see that God is unhappy with Florida.

Seriously I see that CNN is warning of potential growth to a 4 of 5. Scary stuff.

and back to unserious. the X morons are discussing this as engineered storms by the deep state. They believe that but the concept of climate change is impossible to them.

[TexPx 2,321]

TWC says it’s a Cat 4 now.

[locodos 5,345]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm not a religious man but I'm starting to see that God is unhappy with Florida.

Seriously I see that CNN is warning of potential growth to a 4 of 5. Scary stuff.

and back to unserious. the X morons are discussing this as engineered storms by the deep state. They believe that but the concept of climate change is impossible to them.

Listen man,  Humans are complicated, mysterious, and stupid

[randomhorn 1,652]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

and back to unserious. the X morons are discussing this as engineered storms by the deep state. They believe that but the concept of climate change is impossible to them.

Assuming that they are actually people and not bots given their talking points 

[Earl Haffler 588]

Cat 4 now

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3,219]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

and back to unserious. the X morons are discussing this as engineered storms by the deep state. They believe that but the concept of climate change is impossible to them.

Getting very close to getting rid of that app every time I see people talking about that...my god we are fucked as a society when people believe that shit...

[Captainant 27,499]

16 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm not a religious man but I'm starting to see that God is unhappy with Florida.

America is getting its peepee whacked

[BamaATL 16,592]

2 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Cat 4 now

 

If memory serves, Helene made landfall with pressure at 938 mb.  Milton is basically already there, with time to gather more strength.  That is scary, scary shit.  

[HenryJames 65,916]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm not a religious man but I'm starting to see that God is unhappy with Florida

Anyone living there that he might hate?

[atomheartbevo 89,478]

1 hour ago, Bevo Num1 said:

That shit went from a Category 1 to a 3 in less than 6 hours. 

47 minutes ago, randomhorn said:

Damn that was fast

21 minutes ago, TexPx said:

TWC says it’s a Cat 4 now.

13 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Getting very close to getting rid of that app every time I see people talking about that...my god we are fucked as a society when people believe that shit...

They’ve been talking about chemtrails altering the weather and our minds for decades.  It’s just that now they can easily find one another and amplify the bullshit.

[locodos 5,345]

17 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If memory serves, Helene made landfall with pressure at 938 mb.  Milton is basically already there, with time to gather more strength.  That is scary, scary shit.  

yeah but as it gets closer to FLA Milton is forecast to have close to 40kts of shear.  So it should be losing intensity as it comes in.  That's why the forecasts show a dip in power.

[TeeDubya 3,360]

Rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone is defined as 24mb pressure drop in 24 hours

Milton has dropped 27mb in the last two hours. 
 

Not a matter of IF category 5, a matter of WHEN category 5
 

[HellesBier 186]

Did somebody say something about cocaine?!?!

[Bozo_Casanova 26,346]

16 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

Milton has dropped 27mb in the last two hours.

[ConferenceRoom 6,131]

46 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Anyone living there that he might hate?

Laura Loomer

[randomhorn 1,652]

17 minutes ago, HellesBier said:

Did somebody say something about cocaine?!?!

 

[HellesBier 186]

5 minutes ago, randomhorn said:

 

Username checks, love that movie 

[txduck87 983]

Just talked to my uncle who’s lived in Tampa for 30 years and always ridden out any storms.

“I’m bailing on this one , it’s gonna be bad”.

Strom surge gonna be brutal there.

[bolverk 29,456]

48 minutes ago, locodos said:

Listen man,  Humans are complicated, mysterious, and stupid

And some, I assume, are good people.

But seriously, the fact that we have prominent national politicians and social media mavens who are intentionally telling lies about FEMA and interfering with people getting aid is fucking evil and disgusting.

Of course, even on Surly (a site populated by mostly the college-educated), we still have incredibly stupid dipshits, like @US183, falling for and spreading that vile filth.

[chainsaw 9,838]

Somehow it's supposed to weaken before landfall, but even in that weaker condition it will be a monster and the fact it had been Cat 4 means he'll still have a storm surge of biblical proportions. Would not surprise me if it's the most widespread inundation/breach event since Katrina.

[atomheartbevo 89,478]

[Blotto 23,439]

[Brisketexan 104,750]

1 hour ago, locodos said:

yeah but as it gets closer to FLA Milton is forecast to have close to 40kts of shear.  So it should be losing intensity as it comes in.  That's why the forecasts show a dip in power.

See below:

25 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Somehow it's supposed to weaken before landfall, but even in that weaker condition it will be a monster and the fact it had been Cat 4 means he'll still have a storm surge of biblical proportions. Would not surprise me if it's the most widespread inundation/breach event since Katrina.

The bolded is a function that's been discussed by the weather geeks, but isn't grasped by enough regular people.  If you have a Cat 4 building up a hellacious surge over all of that open water, it doesn't matter if the wind speeds drop a few hours before landfall.  Sure, that means less WIND damage than if it had stayed a 4 or 5, but the surge of a Cat 3 that built that surge as a Cat 4 is still a Cat 4-type surge.

Not bueno for Fla.  Darned shame we weather engineered that storm, which is clearly the only logical explanation for why a tropical storm would hit the west coast of Florida, which has never happened before except for the dozens of times that it's happened.

[Hagbard Celine 10,773]

2 hours ago, randomhorn said:

MacDill is going to be hurting for a bit

if they haven't already they will move the nukes today and anything that flies

[elfenix 34,196]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

See below:

The bolded is a function that's been discussed by the weather geeks, but isn't grasped by enough regular people.  If you have a Cat 4 building up a hellacious surge over all of that open water, it doesn't matter if the wind speeds drop a few hours before landfall.  Sure, that means less WIND damage than if it had stayed a 4 or 5, but the surge of a Cat 3 that built that surge as a Cat 4 is still a Cat 4-type surge.

Not bueno for Fla.  Darned shame we weather engineered that storm, which is clearly the only logical explanation for why a tropical storm would hit the west coast of Florida, which has never happened before except for the dozens of times that it's happened.

[chainsaw 9,838]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

See below:

The bolded is a function that's been discussed by the weather geeks, but isn't grasped by enough regular people.  If you have a Cat 4 building up a hellacious surge over all of that open water, it doesn't matter if the wind speeds drop a few hours before landfall.  Sure, that means less WIND damage than if it had stayed a 4 or 5, but the surge of a Cat 3 that built that surge as a Cat 4 is still a Cat 4-type surge.

Not bueno for Fla.  Darned shame we weather engineered that storm, which is clearly the only logical explanation for why a tropical storm would hit the west coast of Florida, which has never happened before except for the dozens of times that it's happened.

The unwashed masses are too dumb to understand anything other than "small number, small hurricane."

Same people who don't grasp that a shallow 4.0 earthquake on loose soil can feel stronger than a deep 4.5 on bedrock.

[jimmyjazz 45,609]

@Ogie Ogilthorpe or other FLA surlies:  how far does one need to go inland off the Gulf Coast to be (say) 20 feet above sea level?  Asking for myself as someone who is rapidly losing interest in retiring there.

[Hagbard Celine 10,773]

weather channel comedy

this situation is fully aggy

helene evacuees from georgia and carolinas are in tampa and orlando and now they have to go back home where there's no power

[InkaUtexas 25,544]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

@Ogie Ogilthorpe or other FLA surlies:  how far does one need to go inland off the Gulf Coast to be (say) 20 feet above sea level?  Asking for myself as someone who is rapidly losing interest in retiring there.

Very little. Highest point is like 350 feet. Biggest hill I ever saw there was landfill. Elevation map. With Milton don't matter shit. That "highland" east of Tampa means the water is just going to flow into some other place on its way to the ocean.

 

 

[Ted Lange 16,055]

 

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe 639]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

@Ogie Ogilthorpe or other FLA surlies:  how far does one need to go inland off the Gulf Coast to be (say) 20 feet above sea level?  Asking for myself as someone who is rapidly losing interest in retiring there.

My Naples house is about 5 miles as the crow flies from the beach and we should have no issue with storm surge, stayed dry during Ian which was more than 12 ft in some areas

St Pete condo, is in a poured concrete building on the 2nd floor with impact windows, no worries there either.

But there are no guarantees at either place. During Helene the surge came over the sea wall and about 6-8 inches from the shrubs in the pic below (you can actually see a little debris on the left), probably needed another 12-18 inches of water before ground floor would have taken water.

We are riding this one out in Naples, have a propane generator, shuttles and picking up a fresh keg of beer for the kegerator on my way home from work today.

 

[bolverk 29,456]

13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

@Ogie Ogilthorpe or other FLA surlies:  how far does one need to go inland off the Gulf Coast to be (say) 20 feet above sea level?  Asking for myself as someone who is rapidly losing interest in retiring there.

 

8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Very little. Highest point is like 350 feet. Biggest hill I ever saw there was landfill. Elevation map. With Milton don't matter shit. That "highland" east of Tampa means the water is just going to flow into some other place on its way to the ocean.

 

 

 

At this point, I have no idea why anyone would consider moving there for retirement when they're old and maybe not spry enough to clean up all the shit from hurricanes, so I wouldn't want to encourage you. That said, about a dozen years ago, I did quite a bit of work in Lake County just west of Orlando and was surprised to see there were some actual hills around there. So, check out the Tavares / Mt. Dora area.

[jimmyjazz 45,609]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

 

 

At this point, I have no idea why anyone would consider moving there for retirement when they're old and maybe not spry enough to clean up all the shit from hurricanes, so I wouldn't want to encourage you. That said, about a dozen years ago, I did quite a bit of work in Lake County just west of Orlando and was surprised to see there were some actual hills around there. So, check out the Tavares / Mt. Dora area.

Well, I'm pretty spry at the moment, but at this point there are any number of reasons we're losing interest, perhaps topped by "Floridians".  We like water and beaches but even my wife is starting to think a nice smaller house in New Mexico (with a really nice pool) may be closer to ideal.

Basically, we're sick of assholes and weather.

[Parliament 14,149]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm not a religious man but I'm starting to see that God is unhappy with Florida.

And Florida State.  Seems Miami’s Faustian bargain is still pending.

[Rip76 4,915]

158 kt flight level (182-ish mph)

924 mb

Should be Cat 5 now.

Edited October 7 by Rip76

[Rip76 4,915]

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

10:55 AM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.7°N 91.6°W
Moving: ESE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

per NHC

[TeeDubya 3,360]

easily supports surface wind estimate of 160-165mph

Edited October 7 by TeeDubya

[DDD Dad 14,269]

33 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

 

At this point, I have no idea why anyone would consider moving there for retirement when they're old and maybe not spry enough to clean up all the shit from hurricanes, so I wouldn't want to encourage you. That said, about a dozen years ago, I did quite a bit of work in Lake County just west of Orlando and was surprised to see there were some actual hills around there. So, check out the Tavares / Mt. Dora area.

 

30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, I'm pretty spry at the moment, but at this point there are any number of reasons we're losing interest, perhaps topped by "Floridians".  We like water and beaches but even my wife is starting to think a nice smaller house in New Mexico (with a really nice pool) may be closer to ideal.

Basically, we're sick of assholes and weather.

I grew up in Miami, was there for Andrew, and still have family there.  I have no desire to retire there for numerous reasons (storm risk and clean up among them), and had thought hard about a move to....western NC to avoid all of that.  

 

[elfenix 34,196]

[Hook1997 5,297]

3 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

easily supports surface wind estimate of 160-165mph

 

[The Dog 43,858]

 

[Hagbard Celine 10,773]

Sea-level records:

global: 870 mb Typhoon Tip 1979 recorded in the eye over Guam

atlantic: 882 mb Hurricane Wilma 2005

[royiv 9,177]

36 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, I'm pretty spry at the moment, but at this point there are any number of reasons we're losing interest, perhaps topped by "Floridians".  We like water and beaches but even my wife is starting to think a nice smaller house in New Mexico (with a really nice pool) may be closer to ideal.

Basically, we're sick of assholes and weather.

I could be very happy somewhere that is high desert with mountain views and a badass pool.