2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM

[Updawg 2378]

Car thieves

You mean TxTow

[Francisco 2.0 32542]

This was already workshopped in 2009 by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Committe, then updated in 2020.  Article is from Sept 2020:

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2020/08/14/hurricane-phoenix-is-tampa-bays-devastating-worst-case-scenario/

 

Quote

It is only a simulation. It’s also the worst-case scenario. One day, it could be reality.

“Hurricane Phoenix” is the hypothetical disaster that would change life in the Tampa Bay area forever.

Imagine a Category 5 storm that drowns South Tampa and turns St. Petersburg into an island. The bridges rendered impassable, the airports unusable and the region’s communities left on their own until help arrives. Power loss in some areas could last months. The beaches would be wiped away, as would tourism. Nearly every small business could die. Recovery would take a decade.

 

Quote

That is the vivid and grim picture painted by Hurricane Phoenix 2.0, the doomsday scenario hurricane simulation conducted by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council.

If all that sounds hyperbolic, it’s not. The Tampa Bay area is considered to be one of the most vulnerable population centers to a hurricane strike. The fact that we haven’t been hit by a major hurricane in 99 years is nothing more than luck, experts say.

 

 

 

Quote

Phoenix 2.0 is the update to the council’s widely-cited 2009 Phoenix simulation, which first explained how devastating a major hurricane could be. It would create millions of tons of rubble and economic damage equivalent to erasing a small nation.

The report arrives at a particularly salient moment: Climatologists predict 2020 may be one of the most active hurricane seasons on record.

But there is no simulating the human toll of such a storm.

 

Spoiler

It’s impossible to calculate exactly how likely a hurricane like Phoenix is to strike Florida, much less the bay area. Only four Category 5 storms have hit the U.S. mainland in almost 170 years of recorded history. Yet, the National Hurricane Center estimates that statistically the Tampa Bay area should get hit by a Category 3 or higher storm about every three decades.

“You don’t need a 5 to bring Tampa Bay to its knees,” said Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

One might think the worst-case scenario would have the storm’s eye going right over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge and marching into Tampa Bay.

It is not. The worst-case scenario is actually the simulated path of Hurricane Phoenix, approaching from the southwest and making landfall at noon north of Tampa Bay’s mouth.

The planning council’s model targets Indian Rocks Beach — that allows the counterclockwise rotation of the storm to sling Gulf water into the bay, raising the surface waters until they overflow into communities like an unattended bathtub with the faucet left running.

The water would rise so dramatically that most of downtown and South Tampa would be under at least 12 to 15 feet of water, according to a Federal Emergency Management Agency software tool used to estimate losses from potential disasters.

The edges of the South Tampa peninsula, all of Davis and Harbour islands, the Channel District and the banks of the Hillsborough River would see water 21 feet or higher.

Westchase and Oldsmar would be entirely underwater, with surge extending all the way inland to Gunn Highway.

One would be able to swim U.S. 41 from the Manatee River to the Ikea store in Ybor City.

The swollen Tampa Bay would meet the Gulf of Mexico in Seminole, swallowing much of mid Pinellas County: The Gateway area, Feather Sound, Pinellas Park, Lealman, Kenneth City and east Largo would all be under water, plus everything south of 22nd Avenue S in St. Petersburg. The intersection of Fifth Avenue N and 34th Street would be the center of St. Pete Island.

The highest surge would hit 42 feet.

The beaches as we know them would be gone.

Hurricane Phoenix would have sustained winds of 160 mph, making it a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. That is strong enough to destroy framed homes, tear roofs apart and decimate trees and power poles.

Wind gusts would reach the 200 mph mark. The takeoff speed of a Boeing 737 is about 150 mph, meaning a Phoenix-like storm could toss passenger jets aside like toys.

The simulated storm retains Category 5 strength as the eye cuts diagonally across the region, moving northeast through mid-Pinellas, the northwest corner of Hillsborough and central Pasco. By the time it reaches eastern Hernando, it would be a Category 4.

From daybreak until 7 p.m., the entire region — Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Manatee counties — would be lashed by hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph.

If what was left of Mexico Beach after a direct hit by Hurricane Michael in 2018 — the last Category 5 storm to make landfall in Florida — serves as a comparison, Phoenix would destroy almost everything in its path.

 

The simulation, done at the planning council’s behest by disaster planning and preparedness contractor Critical Integrated Solutions, serves dual purposes:

“It’s both a warning about the chilling impacts of a catastrophic storm and a call to action for people to plan and prepare for a severe hurricane today — even if they’ve weathered many hurricane warnings in the past,” said planning council executive director Sean Sullivan in an email to the Times.

Phoenix 2.0 echoes the last major hurricane to make landfall in Tampa Bay: The 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane, which came ashore Oct. 25 in Tarpon Springs, just 20 miles north of Phoenix’s simulated landfall in Indian Rocks Beach.

Also known as the Tarpon Springs hurricane, the Category 3 storm leveled the region with up to 115 mph winds. It’s 11-foot storm surge flooded downtown Tampa and turned St. Petersburg into an island. It killed eight people when the population was just 135,000 or so, and caused $10 million of damage in 1921 dollars.

 

The region rebuilt, driven by leaders who “sought to cover up the damage caused by the hurricane and rushed to draw attention back to the ‘paradise’ they marketed as Florida,” according to a 2008 article that Nicole Cox wrote for the journal Tampa Bay History.

That notion of paradise persists a century later, strong enough to attract people to the bay area’s endangered beaches, vulnerable coastline and expensive, low-lying neighborhoods, despite the risks.

But risk, said Jeff R. Temple, psychology professor at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, exists everywhere. Nearly every part of the U.S. faces a worst-case scenario.

“If it’s flooding, mudslides, or earthquakes, or fires, or hurricanes, or tornadoes, it’s really inescapable,” said Temple, whose home, just blocks from the beach, was destroyed by Hurricane Ike in 2008.

After Ike, he said he wouldn’t rebuild in Galveston. But 12 years later, he still lives there. He’s resigned to another hurricane. If he has to, he’ll rebuild again. Humans are like that. “We have to be resilient,” he said, “we have to have short memories.”

But humans are also more reactive than proactive, Temple said. Maybe Phoenix 2.0 can convince Tampa Bay residents to better prepare for their worst-case scenario:

“By putting this (model) out there, people might take it more seriously.”

Not much has changed since the original Phoenix study. The new simulation predicts 10 percent higher storm surge due to Kelvin waves, large-scale waves that can change ocean height. Sea level rise in the past decade has had a negligible impact.

What has changed is the Tampa Bay area itself.

The estimated 3.1 million residents makes Tampa Bay the 17th largest economy in the U.S. If the bay area were its own country, it would have the 55th largest economy in the world.

There are also more than 400,000 more people living here compared to 2009. Downtown St. Petersburg and Tampa are more built out and at risk of flooding. Density has also increased. There are more businesses and homes in the way of storm surge, more structures with roofs to fly off. Many of those are now 11 years older.

Of the six counties’ more than 1.35 million buildings, the simulation shows more than 103,679 buildings would be severely damaged or destroyed. That is an increase from the 92,827 buildings lost in the old simulation.

The 2009 storm was estimated to cost the area $233 billion in economic losses and create 41 million tons of physical wreckage.

Eleven years later, the same storm would cost the area in excess of $300 billion in losses, and leave behind more than 50 million tons of wreckage.

The damage would be worst in Pinellas County. Not one household or commercial building would have power immediately after the storm. More than 70 percent of businesses would be completely destroyed, and the county’s mobile home parks would cease to exist.

The further from landfall, the better residents may fare. Hillsborough would be mostly without power, and more than 60 percent of businesses would be destroyed. Pasco County would go completely dark, and 50 percent of businesses would be gone.

What is different about Phoenix 2.0 is that it comes with a program to help small businesses prepare for and survive a major storm.

The simulation estimates 40 percent of small businesses wouldn’t reopen following the storm. Within a year, 25 percent more would close.

Two years out, 90 percent of small businesses would fail because of a storm.

“So we have a lot to protect,” Sullivan said.

• • •

Death is the biggest concern of Pinellas County Emergency Management Director Cathie Perkins. No amount of messaging to the public or advanced preparations can eliminate the fatalities that will result from the massive evacuation, the storm and its aftermath.

“There will inevitably be loss of life,” she said.

The 2009 Hurricane Phoenix simulation estimated the storm would cause nearly 2,200 deaths; the 2.0 simulation didn’t estimate a death toll or the storm’s effect on poverty.

RELATED: A hurricane during the pandemic would be bad. The economic crisis will make things worse.

But Sullivan said the suffering will be worse among underprivileged communities, where people likely live at or below the poverty line and in older structures. They will also be less likely to buy seven days’ worth of food in preparation for a storm. State officials say that’s how long it could take for help to arrive.

The pandemic will also present challenges, Perkins said, for both citizens and planners. Emergency officials have made alterations to their shelter plans to accommodate pandemic risks. Pinellas County Administrator Barry Burton said each evacuee taking shelter needs 60 square feet of space instead of the old figure of 20 square feet to maintain social distancing and prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

But the pandemic has enhanced cooperation between faith groups, feeding organizations, mental health experts and governments to prepare for that aftermath, Perkins said. Those strengthened relationships would become critical if a Phoenix-like storm were to strike.

Still, governments and nonprofits can only do so much. Perkins said residents need to prepare on their own: They’ll need masks and sanitizer to stay safe in shelters and at least seven days of food, water and medicine to live on after a storm.

It will take time for help to reach them, and even more time to stabilize that help for the hard months to come.

“I can’t do it alone,” she said.

 

Local governments say they’re doing what they can to prepare for the worst-case scenarios outlined in the Phoenix 2.0 simulation.

If a hurricane damages the bay area’s three bridges — which are most vital to Pinellas County — Perkins said they’re ready for that. They’ve already talked with state and federal agencies about using amphibious vehicles to shuttle emergency supplies across waterways.

But a full scale recovery effort would stall if a major storm wipes out the bridges and other critical roadways, said Hillsborough County’s Metropolitan Planning Organization executive director Beth Alden.

For every 2½ weeks a critical road is out of service after a storm, the loss to the regional economy is equivalent to what it would have cost to have built the road to withstand such a storm in the first place.

Mitigation, like preventative health care, is fiscally responsible, said Whit Remer, Tampa’s sustainability and resilience officer.

Every dollar invested in girding infrastructure for a major storm pays for itself four-fold.

“Is it worth it to make these investments now?” Alden asked. “And the answer is, ‘Oh yeah, it’s definitely worth it.’”

 

[Captainant 28381]

9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

This was already workshopped in 2009 by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Committe, then updated in 2020.  Article is from Sept 2020:

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2020/08/14/hurricane-phoenix-is-tampa-bays-devastating-worst-case-scenario/

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

It’s impossible to calculate exactly how likely a hurricane like Phoenix is to strike Florida, much less the bay area. Only four Category 5 storms have hit the U.S. mainland in almost 170 years of recorded history. Yet, the National Hurricane Center estimates that statistically the Tampa Bay area should get hit by a Category 3 or higher storm about every three decades.

“You don’t need a 5 to bring Tampa Bay to its knees,” said Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

One might think the worst-case scenario would have the storm’s eye going right over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge and marching into Tampa Bay.

It is not. The worst-case scenario is actually the simulated path of Hurricane Phoenix, approaching from the southwest and making landfall at noon north of Tampa Bay’s mouth.

The planning council’s model targets Indian Rocks Beach — that allows the counterclockwise rotation of the storm to sling Gulf water into the bay, raising the surface waters until they overflow into communities like an unattended bathtub with the faucet left running.

The water would rise so dramatically that most of downtown and South Tampa would be under at least 12 to 15 feet of water, according to a Federal Emergency Management Agency software tool used to estimate losses from potential disasters.

The edges of the South Tampa peninsula, all of Davis and Harbour islands, the Channel District and the banks of the Hillsborough River would see water 21 feet or higher.

Westchase and Oldsmar would be entirely underwater, with surge extending all the way inland to Gunn Highway.

One would be able to swim U.S. 41 from the Manatee River to the Ikea store in Ybor City.

The swollen Tampa Bay would meet the Gulf of Mexico in Seminole, swallowing much of mid Pinellas County: The Gateway area, Feather Sound, Pinellas Park, Lealman, Kenneth City and east Largo would all be under water, plus everything south of 22nd Avenue S in St. Petersburg. The intersection of Fifth Avenue N and 34th Street would be the center of St. Pete Island.

The highest surge would hit 42 feet.

The beaches as we know them would be gone.

Hurricane Phoenix would have sustained winds of 160 mph, making it a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. That is strong enough to destroy framed homes, tear roofs apart and decimate trees and power poles.

Wind gusts would reach the 200 mph mark. The takeoff speed of a Boeing 737 is about 150 mph, meaning a Phoenix-like storm could toss passenger jets aside like toys.

The simulated storm retains Category 5 strength as the eye cuts diagonally across the region, moving northeast through mid-Pinellas, the northwest corner of Hillsborough and central Pasco. By the time it reaches eastern Hernando, it would be a Category 4.

From daybreak until 7 p.m., the entire region — Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Manatee counties — would be lashed by hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph.

If what was left of Mexico Beach after a direct hit by Hurricane Michael in 2018 — the last Category 5 storm to make landfall in Florida — serves as a comparison, Phoenix would destroy almost everything in its path.

 

The simulation, done at the planning council’s behest by disaster planning and preparedness contractor Critical Integrated Solutions, serves dual purposes:

“It’s both a warning about the chilling impacts of a catastrophic storm and a call to action for people to plan and prepare for a severe hurricane today — even if they’ve weathered many hurricane warnings in the past,” said planning council executive director Sean Sullivan in an email to the Times.

Phoenix 2.0 echoes the last major hurricane to make landfall in Tampa Bay: The 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane, which came ashore Oct. 25 in Tarpon Springs, just 20 miles north of Phoenix’s simulated landfall in Indian Rocks Beach.

Also known as the Tarpon Springs hurricane, the Category 3 storm leveled the region with up to 115 mph winds. It’s 11-foot storm surge flooded downtown Tampa and turned St. Petersburg into an island. It killed eight people when the population was just 135,000 or so, and caused $10 million of damage in 1921 dollars.

 

The region rebuilt, driven by leaders who “sought to cover up the damage caused by the hurricane and rushed to draw attention back to the ‘paradise’ they marketed as Florida,” according to a 2008 article that Nicole Cox wrote for the journal Tampa Bay History.

That notion of paradise persists a century later, strong enough to attract people to the bay area’s endangered beaches, vulnerable coastline and expensive, low-lying neighborhoods, despite the risks.

But risk, said Jeff R. Temple, psychology professor at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, exists everywhere. Nearly every part of the U.S. faces a worst-case scenario.

“If it’s flooding, mudslides, or earthquakes, or fires, or hurricanes, or tornadoes, it’s really inescapable,” said Temple, whose home, just blocks from the beach, was destroyed by Hurricane Ike in 2008.

After Ike, he said he wouldn’t rebuild in Galveston. But 12 years later, he still lives there. He’s resigned to another hurricane. If he has to, he’ll rebuild again. Humans are like that. “We have to be resilient,” he said, “we have to have short memories.”

But humans are also more reactive than proactive, Temple said. Maybe Phoenix 2.0 can convince Tampa Bay residents to better prepare for their worst-case scenario:

“By putting this (model) out there, people might take it more seriously.”

Not much has changed since the original Phoenix study. The new simulation predicts 10 percent higher storm surge due to Kelvin waves, large-scale waves that can change ocean height. Sea level rise in the past decade has had a negligible impact.

What has changed is the Tampa Bay area itself.

The estimated 3.1 million residents makes Tampa Bay the 17th largest economy in the U.S. If the bay area were its own country, it would have the 55th largest economy in the world.

There are also more than 400,000 more people living here compared to 2009. Downtown St. Petersburg and Tampa are more built out and at risk of flooding. Density has also increased. There are more businesses and homes in the way of storm surge, more structures with roofs to fly off. Many of those are now 11 years older.

Of the six counties’ more than 1.35 million buildings, the simulation shows more than 103,679 buildings would be severely damaged or destroyed. That is an increase from the 92,827 buildings lost in the old simulation.

The 2009 storm was estimated to cost the area $233 billion in economic losses and create 41 million tons of physical wreckage.

Eleven years later, the same storm would cost the area in excess of $300 billion in losses, and leave behind more than 50 million tons of wreckage.

The damage would be worst in Pinellas County. Not one household or commercial building would have power immediately after the storm. More than 70 percent of businesses would be completely destroyed, and the county’s mobile home parks would cease to exist.

The further from landfall, the better residents may fare. Hillsborough would be mostly without power, and more than 60 percent of businesses would be destroyed. Pasco County would go completely dark, and 50 percent of businesses would be gone.

What is different about Phoenix 2.0 is that it comes with a program to help small businesses prepare for and survive a major storm.

The simulation estimates 40 percent of small businesses wouldn’t reopen following the storm. Within a year, 25 percent more would close.

Two years out, 90 percent of small businesses would fail because of a storm.

“So we have a lot to protect,” Sullivan said.

• • •

Death is the biggest concern of Pinellas County Emergency Management Director Cathie Perkins. No amount of messaging to the public or advanced preparations can eliminate the fatalities that will result from the massive evacuation, the storm and its aftermath.

“There will inevitably be loss of life,” she said.

The 2009 Hurricane Phoenix simulation estimated the storm would cause nearly 2,200 deaths; the 2.0 simulation didn’t estimate a death toll or the storm’s effect on poverty.

RELATED: A hurricane during the pandemic would be bad. The economic crisis will make things worse.

But Sullivan said the suffering will be worse among underprivileged communities, where people likely live at or below the poverty line and in older structures. They will also be less likely to buy seven days’ worth of food in preparation for a storm. State officials say that’s how long it could take for help to arrive.

The pandemic will also present challenges, Perkins said, for both citizens and planners. Emergency officials have made alterations to their shelter plans to accommodate pandemic risks. Pinellas County Administrator Barry Burton said each evacuee taking shelter needs 60 square feet of space instead of the old figure of 20 square feet to maintain social distancing and prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

But the pandemic has enhanced cooperation between faith groups, feeding organizations, mental health experts and governments to prepare for that aftermath, Perkins said. Those strengthened relationships would become critical if a Phoenix-like storm were to strike.

Still, governments and nonprofits can only do so much. Perkins said residents need to prepare on their own: They’ll need masks and sanitizer to stay safe in shelters and at least seven days of food, water and medicine to live on after a storm.

It will take time for help to reach them, and even more time to stabilize that help for the hard months to come.

“I can’t do it alone,” she said.

 

Local governments say they’re doing what they can to prepare for the worst-case scenarios outlined in the Phoenix 2.0 simulation.

If a hurricane damages the bay area’s three bridges — which are most vital to Pinellas County — Perkins said they’re ready for that. They’ve already talked with state and federal agencies about using amphibious vehicles to shuttle emergency supplies across waterways.

But a full scale recovery effort would stall if a major storm wipes out the bridges and other critical roadways, said Hillsborough County’s Metropolitan Planning Organization executive director Beth Alden.

For every 2½ weeks a critical road is out of service after a storm, the loss to the regional economy is equivalent to what it would have cost to have built the road to withstand such a storm in the first place.

Mitigation, like preventative health care, is fiscally responsible, said Whit Remer, Tampa’s sustainability and resilience officer.

Every dollar invested in girding infrastructure for a major storm pays for itself four-fold.

“Is it worth it to make these investments now?” Alden asked. “And the answer is, ‘Oh yeah, it’s definitely worth it.’”

 

 

A major difference that's subtle but important with Milton, he's tracking south of Tampa which would put them on the clean side. Still winds that'll knock the shit out of everything, but wayyyyyy less flooding. This article is the WORST case that people were worried about before Milton turned south where Tampa was in the dirty side and would get a bunch of water pulled in with the rotation of the storm

[Bookman 4754]

Wow, some are predicting 15 feet of storm surge. 

[Ted Lange 16351]

[LTtxfan 49906]

1 hour ago, Deej said:

That's a big storm. Must have named it after Milton Berle.

Nah...

 

[Deej 77667]

Just now, LTtxfan said:

Nah...

 

Hurricane Milton is gonna whip his cock out of Florida like Uncle Miltie whipped his cock out on your grandma. 

[Prepuce of Doom 21258]

Just now, Deej said:

Hurricane Milton is gonna whip his cock out of Florida like Uncle Miltie whipped his cock out on your grandma. 

Just enough to win??? 

[chainsaw 10243]

Florida is uninhabitable, plus the weather is dangerous

[staboner 5066]

track is still just south of TB metro. sucks for those there, but still best case scenario for TB at this point. if this fucker shifts up 20 miles yikes

[Farmerted 125]

How soon until earth as a big red eye on it permanently like Jupiter , or is it Saturn …

[HenryJames 67115]

[Hmbre97 6337]

 

[choripan 796]

4 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Same. I was stationed almost 9 years in Florida. Built a house near cocoa beach. Lived in Tampa for the last 4 coaching pop warner. Have 3 kids in D1 today from that team.   I’ve never ran into a single issue that dude whining about Naples said.   But it’s his own fault. Naples is basically New Jersey and New Jersey is the dig shit of the country.  

Whining? Fuck off. I can call a spade a spade.

[Sawbonz 28081]

31 minutes ago, Farmerted said:

How soon until earth as a big red eye on it permanently like Jupiter , or is it Saturn …

Uranus

[Farmerted 125]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

Uranus

Your welcome 

[Hate 20232]

*You're

[Constant 6839]

34 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Uranus

I think thats a brown eye, not red. 

[troph 25089]

38 minutes ago, Hate said:

*You're

[TeeDubya 3362]

a tad higher pressure on the last recon flight.  

The slow (and forecasted) weakening is starting.

Edited October 9 by TeeDubya

[markstanco 12772]

*You're

You’reanus

[Baboontyme 2875]

4 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

This is where my office is, talks today was focused on how soon can we bring everything back online for people to get back in office business continuity is our structure. Eat my dick, god I despise these mfers 

 

If I'm looking at that thing right without going to Google maps, that's right where my old offices were. Westshore and Kennedy. 

[markstanco 12772]

a tad higher pressure on the last recon flight.  

The slow (and forecasted) weakening is starting.

Hey look, my heart rate on coin flips when Charlie strong was the coach.

[InkaUtexas 26795]

I know we are all focused on the potential impact on Tampa and Florida. Any reports on the impact on Mexico? There is some pretty nice and expensive property in the area.

Meanwhile we finished packing up our oh shit team's equipment today and tomorrow deciding where they need to go for rapid response afterwards. Pissed I am not on the team heading there for recovery planning.

Milton is already pulling resources from Helene recovery. A LtC (reserve) in the office was recalled to 24/7 readiness to go serve at the joint chiefs planning cell. She is a bad ass building large camps. DOD is already going into long term planning. Her being put on notice means all the full time active people are pretty much committed somewhere.

 

[TeeDubya 3362]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I know we are all focused on the potential impact on Tampa and Florida. Any reports on the impact on Mexico? There is some pretty nice and expensive property in the area.

 

 

The core of hurricane-force winds stayed offshore.  Here's a radar screencap from late afternoon...  you can see the eye well off the coast.  

I assume they had some beach erosion from surf and waves. 



 

Edited October 9 by TeeDubya

[Captainant 28381]

38 minutes ago, Constant said:

I think thats a brown eye, not red. 

Brown eye can lead to pink eye

[BamaATL 16593]

16 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I know we are all focused on the potential impact on Tampa and Florida. Any reports on the impact on Mexico? There is some pretty nice and expensive property in the area.

Meanwhile we finished packing up our oh shit team's equipment today and tomorrow deciding where they need to go for rapid response afterwards. Pissed I am not on the team heading there for recovery planning.

Milton is already pulling resources from Helene recovery. A LtC (reserve) in the office was recalled to 24/7 readiness to go serve at the joint chiefs planning cell. She is a bad ass building large camps. DOD is already going into long term planning. Her being put on notice means all the full time active people are pretty much committed somewhere.

 

I think we buy enough drugs for the cartel to rebuild.  

[troph 25089]

23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I know we are all focused on the potential impact on Tampa and Florida. Any reports on the impact on Mexico? There is some pretty nice and expensive property in the area.

Meanwhile we finished packing up our oh shit team's equipment today and tomorrow deciding where they need to go for rapid response afterwards. Pissed I am not on the team heading there for recovery planning.

Milton is already pulling resources from Helene recovery. A LtC (reserve) in the office was recalled to 24/7 readiness to go serve at the joint chiefs planning cell. She is a bad ass building large camps. DOD is already going into long term planning. Her being put on notice means all the full time active people are pretty much committed somewhere.

 

It’s gone right by holbox definitely not a place with infrastructure to handle it. Hopefully no big deal. 

[The Dog 44771]

 

[Gil Bang 26174]

5 hours ago, Post Oak said:

If you have anything you want to say to him or something you want to get off your chest, you should do it today.  

Hopefully he's ok.

Tell him you're in a cash crunch, and ask if he can wire you a few thousand.

[Slacks 7019]

12 hours ago, Hollywood said:

Ryan Hall (Y'all) is live right now for anyone that wants to nerd out:

 

Ryan Hall y'all is legit during tornado chase time. I watch way too often in the spring.

[tx 3 putt 78466]

pretty damn cool way to go ….

 

[atomheartbevo 90543]

6 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

In case anybody missed it earlier.  Apparently based on the Unreal engine.

[tx 3 putt 78466]

anyone thinking they can ride out this monster is an idiot 

[Pimphand 6266]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

anyone thinking they can ride out this monster is an idiot 

Making blanket statements is idiotic.

They publish storm surge inundation maps. You should evacuate if you are in the flood zone or if you live in a manufactured home. If you are not in the flood zone and live in a well built structure and flee you likely are putting yourself in harms way while potentially making it tougher for someone who needs to evacuate to do so (gaa shortages/excess traffic). Have you completely forgotten how stupid Houston was over Rita?

[tx 3 putt 78466]

35 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Making blanket statements is idiotic.

They publish storm surge inundation maps. You should evacuate if you are in the flood zone or if you live in a manufactured home. If you are not in the flood zone and live in a well built structure and flee you likely are putting yourself in harms way while potentially making it tougher for someone who needs to evacuate to do so (gaa shortages/excess traffic). Have you completely forgotten how stupid Houston was over Rita?

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe 640]

7:00 last night

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe 640]

Just now, little bit of rain

 

[UT_OB1 2260]

9 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

Needs a black couch. 

[LTtxfan 49906]

7 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Milton is already pulling resources from Helene recovery. A LtC (reserve) in the office was recalled to 24/7 readiness to go serve at the joint chiefs planning cell. She is a bad ass building large camps. DOD is already going into long term planning. Her being put on notice means all the full time active people are pretty much committed somewhere.

 

Interesting comments from United Cajun Navy VP on how the most experienced FEMA folks are not being used in the hurricane relief because they are deployed elsewhere -- said he couldn't discuss where they are to protect his source at FEMA.

Disregard the Blackhawk headline -- an experienced Blackhawk pilot at end says he reviewed video and believes the Blackhawk pilot made a mistake... 

 

Edited October 9 by LTtxfan

[Captainant 28381]

5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Interesting comments from Vice President United Cajun Navy VP on how the most experienced FEMA folks are not being used in the hurricane relief because they are deployed elsewhere -- said he couldn't discuss where they are to protect his source in FEMA.

Disregard the Blackhawk headline -- an experienced Blackhawk pilot at end says he reviewed video and believes the Blackhawk pilot made a mistake... 

Bruh. Glenn fucking Beck? What does Tim Pool think though?

[Pam Cummings 9823]

17 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Interesting comments from United Cajun Navy VP on how the most experienced FEMA folks are not being used in the hurricane relief because they are deployed elsewhere -- said he couldn't discuss where they are to protect his source at FEMA.

Disregard the Blackhawk headline -- an experienced Blackhawk pilot at end says he reviewed video and believes the Blackhawk pilot made a mistake... 

 

Who is helped by this?

[SydneyCarton 49323]

Guys, here’s a real shocking conspiracy; Lots of people on fema of all ranks might be deployed in NC and TN and GA at the moment. 

I suppose some people think FEMA should already be in Tampa waiting to get wiped off the planet as opposed to staged elsewhere or helping other devastated communities. 

Edited October 9 by SydneyCarton

[ConferenceRoom 6210]

2 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Making blanket statements is idiotic.

[Captainant 28381]

I've been following Ryan Hall and also Max Velocity for pretty good meteorological updates. Tampa starts to get hurricane force winds this afternoon/evening starting at 2 or 3 and landfall around midnight

 

 

[HiggyBaby 2615]

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

I’ve only been in one storm, Dolly in Padre. It was a low level 2 at landfall. The destruction was bad. Can’t imagine this thing.

[TeeDubya 3362]

3 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Making blanket statements is idiotic.

They publish storm surge inundation maps. You should evacuate if you are in the flood zone or if you live in a manufactured home. If you are not in the flood zone and live in a well built structure and flee you likely are putting yourself in harms way while potentially making it tougher for someone who needs to evacuate to do so (gaa shortages/excess traffic). Have you completely forgotten how stupid Houston was over Rita?

While true for the physical hazards, the aftermath of a major hurricane is an awful place to be.  

[Brew 3049]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Interesting comments from United Cajun Navy VP on how the most experienced FEMA folks are not being used in the hurricane relief because they are deployed elsewhere -- said he couldn't discuss where they are to protect his source at FEMA.

Disregard the Blackhawk headline -- an experienced Blackhawk pilot at end says he reviewed video and believes the Blackhawk pilot made a mistake... 

 

Cajun Navy does great work, but man they are eaten up with the conspiracy theories and politics. The NC NG has taken responsibility for the helicopter incident. Maybe that conspiracy can be put to bed now.

[HenryJames 67115]

Hurricane FAQ - NOAA/AOML

During each hurricane season, someone always asks “why don’t we destroy tropical cyclones by nuking them” or “can we use nuclear weapons to destroy a hurricane?” There always appear suggestions that one should simply nuke hurricanes to destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.

Now for a more rigorous scientific explanation of why this would not be an effective hurricane modification technique. The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required. A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20×10¹³ watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 10¹³ watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.

If we think about mechanical energy, the energy at humanity’s disposal is closer to the storm’s, but the task of focusing even half of the energy on a spot in the middle of a remote ocean would still be formidable. Brute force interference with hurricanes doesn’t seem promising.

In addition, an explosive, even a nuclear explosive, produces a shock wave, or pulse of high pressure, that propagates away from the site of the explosion somewhat faster than the speed of sound. Such an event doesn’t raise the barometric pressure after the shock has passed because barometric pressure in the atmosphere reflects the weight of the air above the ground. For normal atmospheric pressure, there are about ten metric tons (1000 kilograms per ton) of air bearing down on each square meter of surface. In the strongest hurricanes there are nine. To change a Category 5 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane you would have to add about a half ton of air for each square meter inside the eye, or a total of a bit more than half a billion (500,000,000) tons for a 20 km radius eye. It’s difficult to envision a practical way of moving that much air around.

Attacking weak tropical waves or depressions before they have a chance to grow into hurricanes isn’t promising either. About 80 of these disturbances form every year in the Atlantic basin, but only about 5 become hurricanes in a typical year. There is no way to tell in advance which ones will develop. If the energy released in a tropical disturbance were only 10% of that released in a hurricane, it’s still a lot of power, so that the hurricane police would need to dim the whole world’s lights many times a year.

[locodos 5582]

14 hours ago, pantone159 said:

Isn't that good news? I thought we want the center to be south of Tampa Bay, that way the bay won't get the full brunt of the storm surge.

Well, not if you live south of Tampa.   If Milton doesn't hang a louie and rolls up the keys into Miami it'll be a shit show 10x the size of a Tampa bay strike.  I don't think that's what'll happen, but you never know who has space lasers and who doesn't.