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2024 Hurricane Season thread of DOOM


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15 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I know we are all focused on the potential impact on Tampa and Florida. Any reports on the impact on Mexico? There is some pretty nice and expensive property in the area.

Meanwhile we finished packing up our oh shit team's equipment today and tomorrow deciding where they need to go for rapid response afterwards. Pissed I am not on the team heading there for recovery planning.

Milton is already pulling resources from Helene recovery. A LtC (reserve) in the office was recalled to 24/7 readiness to go serve at the joint chiefs planning cell. She is a bad ass building large camps. DOD is already going into long term planning. Her being put on notice means all the full time active people are pretty much committed somewhere.

 

Yeah, it's not like Merida is a village with two donkeys and a millstone.  Hope they didn't get hit too bad.

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https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/9/24265963/hurricane-milton-helene-gulf-of-mexico-atlantic-water-temperature

 

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Hurricane Milton, like Hurricane Helene before it, is souped up on hot water in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricanes need warm water to develop, with higher temperatures helping them gather strength. It’s a risk that’s growing with climate change, and we’re already seeing the alarming consequences this hurricane season.

“The warmer the water is, effectively, the more fuel that is available for the storm engine to work with,” says Scott Braun, a research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who specializes in hurricanes.

 

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Milton exploded on October 7th, rapidly intensifying from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in near-record time. That day, it passed over waters in the Gulf of Mexico that might have felt similar to a hot bath. Sea surface temperatures reached roughly 88 degrees Fahrenheit (31 degrees Celsius). That’s well above the temperature needed for a hurricane to develop, at least 79F (26C).

Not only was the Gulf running a temperature, the unusually warm water also ran fairly deep, making it less likely the storm would churn up deeper, cooler waters.

 

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It’s not typically quite this hot this time of year. The 88 degree sea surface temperature is close to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2C) above the long-term average. But every fraction of a degree matters when it comes to climate-related disasters like more intense storms.

“It’s pretty darn warm,” Braun says. “With the temperatures getting as warm as they are, and being above the long term average, you’re basically getting more energy available to these storms than in the past.”

More heat energy means the potential for stronger storms. Milton is the second major hurricane within two weeks to threaten Florida. Helene made landfall on September 26th as a Category 4 storm with wind speeds reaching 140 mph and a massive 15-foot storm surge.

 

Spoiler

Milton is forecast to make landfall on Florida’s central west coast tonight as another major hurricane, with Category 3 or 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale that tops out at Category 5. Milton ran into strong wind shear, weakening it as it approached Florida, which is why it’s been downgraded from a Category 5 storm. Nevertheless, it’ll be “an extremely dangerous major hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center says. Tampa Bay could be hit with as high as a 12-foot storm surge.

“That storm surge is still the biggest issue that we’re looking at. Any of you who went through Hurricane Helene, that was 4-6 feet and that was more devastation than I’ve seen in my life,” City of Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said in a press conference today.

It’s too soon to know exactly how much climate change might have influenced Milton’s development. We do know that with Helene, the high sea surface temperatures along the storm’s path were 200-500 times more likely as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels that are causing climate change, according to a study published today by an international group of researchers.

Off the bat, forecasters already expected a rough hurricane season this year with near-record heat in the Atlantic. With warmer than average sea surface temperatures lingering into the fall, coastal communities could once again find themselves in hot water before the Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end on November 30th.

With greenhouse gas emissions still on the rise and global average temperatures climbing, they could be feeling the heat again next season, too.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/9/24265963/hurricane-milton-helene-gulf-of-mexico-atlantic-water-temperature

 

 

 

 

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Milton is forecast to make landfall on Florida’s central west coast tonight as another major hurricane, with Category 3 or 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale that tops out at Category 5. Milton ran into strong wind shear, weakening it as it approached Florida, which is why it’s been downgraded from a Category 5 storm. Nevertheless, it’ll be “an extremely dangerous major hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center says. Tampa Bay could be hit with as high as a 12-foot storm surge.

“That storm surge is still the biggest issue that we’re looking at. Any of you who went through Hurricane Helene, that was 4-6 feet and that was more devastation than I’ve seen in my life,” City of Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said in a press conference today.

It’s too soon to know exactly how much climate change might have influenced Milton’s development. We do know that with Helene, the high sea surface temperatures along the storm’s path were 200-500 times more likely as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels that are causing climate change, according to a study published today by an international group of researchers.

Off the bat, forecasters already expected a rough hurricane season this year with near-record heat in the Atlantic. With warmer than average sea surface temperatures lingering into the fall, coastal communities could once again find themselves in hot water before the Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end on November 30th.

With greenhouse gas emissions still on the rise and global average temperatures climbing, they could be feeling the heat again next season, too.

 

 

Blah blah blah -- way to cover up for "them" and their WEATHER CONTROL MACHINES!!!!

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6 hours ago, Js1 said:

During each hurricane season, someone always asks “why don’t we destroy tropical cyclones by nuking them” or “can we use nuclear weapons to destroy a hurricane?” There always appear suggestions that one should simply nuke hurricanes to destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.

Should have ended here.  The only people who think "nuking" a god damn hurricane is a good idea to begin with are not going to be swayed by science.  They are the dumbest among us and their suggestions should be scorned and shamed.

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35 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

straps is the key, straps ….

 

IMG_2087.jpeg

Need to put a couple of spins in them straps a few times to keep 'em from flappin' in the wind.


 

Tornadoes?  Yeah.  A bunch...
NWS Miami and NWS Tampa have set single day records for TORs issued.

Image
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Edited by TeeDubya
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2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

i thought the tampa hospital was at sea level 

No idea.  They claimed the AquaFence was good for a 15 foot storm surge, so it would be a tactical blunder of biblical proportions if they only protected gainst a 5 foot surge.  I'm gonna assume they got the basics right.

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

No idea.  They claimed the AquaFence was good for a 15 foot storm surge, so it would be a tactical blunder of biblical proportions if they only protected gainst a 5 foot surge.  I'm gonna assume they got the basics right.

 

https://www.archpaper.com/2024/10/tampa-hospital-fortified-hurricane/?amp=1

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3 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Also can please people NOT do this shit. Fucking A! 
It enrages me. Damn. 

 

Are you fucking kidding me?????  People that do this deserve the fucking wood chipper.   Child and animal abuse deserve death. Fuck these people 

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Just now, Captainant said:

bowling GIF

that's just about a worst case for Tampa

Wind wise, it ain't good.  But surge wise, it could be much worse -- a direct hit on the mouth of the bay, which that track looks to miss to the south by just a bit, which can be enough to help a lot.  Still gonna be a fuckload of surge, just not as bad as it could be.

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31 minutes ago, Captainant said:

bowling GIF

that's just about a worst case for Tampa

No worst case for Tampa is it to make landfall north of the bay because that would push max storm surge up into the bay and completely flood out the eastern edge (Ruskin-Gibsonton)

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