Can someone explain this France thing to me like I’m 5?

Stringer · June 14

What is going on with Macron? Some snap election? Seems bad?

Welshy · June 14

SHUT UP AND GO TO YOUR ROOM.

Stupud 5 year old dummy.

Gatorubet · June 14

Stay here son, daddy is going to take this picture to his room for a while, and then I’ll be right out to answer your question.

Js1 · June 14

25 minutes ago, Stringer said:

What is going on with Macron? Some snap election? Seems bad?

Doesn’t seem too bad….yet.

The right wing in France is already infighting. Mainstream French Republican leader allied with Le Pen’s RN and he was voted out as leader but refuses to leave. There was an agreement no one would ever ally with Le Pen and he broke it

The left wing parties all coalesced and are polling barely behind the right. Last poll I saw was 31-28 with Macron’s centrist coalition far behind.

TexasHooch · June 14

Macron: You can have me or chaos.

France: We want Chaos

Macron: OK, cool, c'est la vie

Bozo_Casanova · June 15

Well, first you make a roux

BamaATL · June 15

6,000 years ago god created heaven, earth, the cave paintings, dinosaurs and humans. Hannibal crossed the Alps on the back of a brontosaurus to defeat Beowulf. Charlemagne the God created France about 1500 years ago, and then Tom Hanks found Jebus's great grand daughter, and we got croussandwiches out of the whole thing.

I may have some of the details on that wrong.

At any rate, my understanding of it is that you have a lot of growing pains within France. You have financial realities of having a population retire too early combined with an aging population. At the same time, you have an influx of several immigrant populations. All that sort of fits right into the right wing play book, stoke national pride with a combination of fear about a changing world and you get a recipe for a populist victory. Like here, it doesn't matter there is likely not much anyone can do to change the inevitable reality, but it sells politically. Ironically enough, immigration could be a potential solution to a lot of their fiscal challenges. Invariably, some level of austerity is here to stay, to what level depends on how they play their cards.

"Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others."

Biff Tannen · June 15

TwiceHorn · June 15

Here's the deal, as I understand it. Right-winger LePen's Rally Nationale party won or will win big in EU Parliament elections.

Normally French Parliament elections would not be held until 2027. But rather than wait for the right-wingers to consolidate and get their shit any further together, Macron sprung this on everyone.

The ostensible reason is that the French have spoken and Macron's Renaissance Party no longer has a mandate. The strategeric reason is to try to catch the right-wingers short. It's a gamble.

Bullneck · June 15

Nice Guy Eddie · June 15

It would be crazy if our president could call for House elections within a few weeks. I could see it keeping everything a bit more moderate as the House party in power has to worry about a misstep when the president is on the other party.

atomheartbevo · June 15

8 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Stay here son, daddy is going to take this picture to his room for a while, and then I’ll be right out to answer your question.

She's no Claudia Cardinale, but not bad.

RPM · June 15

South Austin · June 15

Dutchrudder · June 15

14 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It would be crazy if our president could call for House elections within a few weeks. I could see it keeping everything a bit more moderate as the House party in power has to worry about a misstep when the president is on the other party.

Imagine doing that to the House right after the Dobbs decision came down...

Incredulity · June 15

Biff Tannen · June 15

bolverk · June 15

3 hours ago, BeardIP said:

Explaining like a 5 year old incoming:

To add to this largely accurate (BUT UNSOURCED) op/ed, National Rally is like our own far-right and is most popular among the poorly educated, rural, aging, and largely agricultural communes around France.

Macron, a centrist, has been enacting a series of reforms on pensions and raised the retirement age from 62 to 64, both of which have been widely unpopular among the Right (old) and the Left (socialists), so this was indeed a "protest vote" against those policies, even though the EU Parliament has little to no sway over those particular domestic matters.

There's the matter of EU-wide "green policies," such as limiting the amount of pesticides/herbicides along with expanding conservation areas, that have pissed off the rural agricultural areas.

But, a lot of what makes the National Rally's particular brand of conservativism popular stems from racist and xenophobic sentiments you'd find in any old, rural, overwhelmingly white part of Texas, like Llano. Roughly 12% of French residents were born outside France (not much lower than the percentage for the US), and they're overwhelmingly Brown Arabs (Maghreb: Algeria, Morroco, Tunisia) or Black Africans (West & Central: Senegal, Mali, Niger, Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon).

It's largely the legacy of France inviting these populations in from former colonies to help rebuild France after WW2. So not only is there a relatively large foreign-born population, but there's also a well-established existing "foreign" population that's been poorly integrated and living there since the 1950s, many of whom reside in bad public housing and high-crime areas. If you've ever ridden the Metro in Paris, you'll quickly realize it's a very diverse city.

According to the EU Parliament vote results, the Right was represented by three parties: Reconquête/Reconquest (veritable fascists: 5%), Rassemblement Nationale/National Rally (rooted in fascism: 31%), and Républicains/Republicans (standard-issue conservatives: 7%). Together, they comprised 44% of the EU election votes. Fortunately, the EU Parliament doesn't have a huge amount of power (it's mostly an institution run by technocrats and the heads of state of its various component nations). Still, we shouldn't be surprised to see some tempered support for Ukraine from France in the near future because of this election (investigations have shown the National Rally to have received funding from the Kremlin).

Election results in map and percentages in spoiler. Bear in mind that they colored the map by the highest percentage, which is not the majority in most cases. So, it looks worse than it is.

Spoiler

As Js1 noted above, the head of the Republicans broke his promise and wants to form a coalition with the two far-right parties for the upcoming snap national elections. Thus, there is a real threat that they'll have the largest share of seats in the National Assembly (lower house of Congress) if not an outright majority. In either case, that would likely mean Macron would be forced to appoint one of them to become Prime Minister (kind of equivalent to Speaker of the House but with more powers). Macron would still be the Head of State, controlling international affairs, but domestic policies, directed largely by the Prime Minister, would be under the influence of right-wingers who are not at all supportive of immigration and very questionable on the EU, NATO, and Ukraine. In this case, don't be surprised if you start hearing rumblings of a "Frexit."

In response, the Left has formed its own coalition and is calling it the Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front), which echoes a similar one to the 1930s to fend off rising fascist sentiments in France prior to WW2, which eventually resulted in collaborationist Vichy France. As noted, Macron's domestic policies are deeply unpopular with the Left (pensions/retirement age), but his international policies (EU integration and Ukraine) are largely supported except for the Far Left.

The domestic situation may cause the Center to collapse in France in the upcoming election, and it's doubtful the Left would form a coalition to run domestic affairs with Macron's party because of his unpopular reforms. It's all going to depend on turnout, I suppose. And, as noted in previous posts, turnout for EU elections is usually much lower than for national elections. So, fingers crossed.

Today, in its cities, hundreds of thousands across France demonstrated against the right-wing coalition.

Edited June 15 by bolverk

Biff Tannen · June 15

19 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

32 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

To add to this largely accurate (BUT UNSOURCED) op/ed, National Rally is like our own far-right and is most popular among the poorly educated, rural, aging, and largely agricultural communes around France.

Macron, a centrist, has been enacting a series of reforms on pensions and raised the retirement age from 62 to 64, both of which have been widely unpopular among the Right (old) and the Left (socialists), so this was indeed a "protest vote" against those policies, even though the EU Parliament has little to no sway over those particular domestic matters.

There's the matter of EU-wide "green policies," such as limiting the amount of pesticides/herbicides along with expanding conservation areas, that have pissed off the rural agricultural areas.

But, a lot of what makes the National Rally's particular brand of conservativism popular stems from racist and xenophobic sentiments you'd find in any old, rural, overwhelmingly white part of Texas, like Llano. Roughly 12% of French residents were born outside France (not much lower than the percentage for the US), and they're overwhelmingly Brown Arabs (Maghreb: Algeria, Morroco, Tunisia) or Black Africans (West & Central: Senegal, Mali, Niger, Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon).

It's largely the legacy of France inviting these populations in from former colonies to help rebuild France after WW2. So not only is there a relatively large foreign-born population, but there's also a well-established existing "foreign" population that's been poorly integrated and living there since the 1950s, many of whom reside in bad public housing and high-crime areas. If you've ever ridden the Metro in Paris, you'll quickly realize it's a very diverse city.

According to the EU Parliament vote results, the Right was represented by three parties: Reconquête/Reconquest (veritable fascists: 5%), Rassemblement Nationale/National Rally (rooted in fascism: 31%), and Républicains/Republicans (standard-issue conservatives: 7%). Together, they comprised 44% of the EU election votes. Fortunately, the EU Parliament doesn't have a huge amount of power (it's mostly an institution run by technocrats and the heads of state of its various component nations). Still, we shouldn't be surprised to see some tempered support for Ukraine from France in the near future because of this election (investigations have shown the National Rally to have received funding from the Kremlin).

Election results in map and percentages in spoiler. Bear in mind that they colored the map by the highest percentage, which is not the majority in most cases. So, it looks worse than it is.

Reveal hidden contents

As Js1 noted above, the head of the Republicans broke his promise and wants to form a coalition with the two far-right parties for the upcoming snap national elections. Thus, there is a real threat that they'll have the largest share of seats in the National Assembly (lower house of Congress) if not an outright majority. In either case, that would likely mean Macron would be forced to appoint one of them to become Prime Minister (kind of equivalent to Speaker of the House but with more powers). Macron would still be the Head of State, controlling international affairs, but domestic policies, directed largely by the Prime Minister, would be under the influence of right-wingers who are not at all supportive of immigration and very questionable on the EU, NATO, and Ukraine. In this case, don't be surprised if you start hearing rumblings of a "Frexit."

In response, the Left has formed its own coalition and is calling it the Nouvelle Front Populaire (New Popular Front), which echoes a similar one to the 1930s to fend off rising fascist sentiments in France prior to WW2, which eventually resulted in collaborationist Vichy France. As noted, Macron's domestic policies are deeply unpopular with the Left (pensions/retirement age), but his international policies (EU integration and Ukraine) are largely supported except for the Far Left.

The domestic situation may cause the Center to collapse in France in the upcoming election, and it's doubtful the Left would form a coalition to run domestic affairs with Macron's party because of his unpopular reforms. It's all going to depend on turnout, I suppose. And, as noted in previous posts, turnout for EU elections is usually much lower than for national elections. So, fingers crossed.

Today, in its cities, hundreds of thousands across France demonstrated against the right-wing coalition.

bolverk · June 15

9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Dress to Kill was such an amazing stand-up routine.

Biff Tannen · June 15

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Dress to Kill was such an amazing stand-up routine.

I would say that, Eddie Murphy Raw, and Patton Oswalt Werewolves and Lollipops are my top 3, in no particular order.

Js1 · June 15

Biff Tannen · June 15

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This seems to be right in line with where America is as well.

bolverk · June 15

8 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This seems to be right in line with where America is as well.

Pretty much. Just like here, the Right is driven by White grievance, and much of the Left is pissed their Centrist president isn't progressive enough. The biggest difference in our politics is the lack of fundamentalist crazies over there. Less than half have any sort of religious belief, and very few actually go to Mass, Mosque, or Temple.

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/7342918?sommaire=7344042

UpperWestside · June 15

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

Pretty much. Just like here, the Right is driven by White grievance, and much of the Left is pissed their Centrist president isn't progressive enough. The biggest difference in our politics is the lack of fundamentalist crazies over there. Less than half have any sort of religious belief, and very few actually go to Mass, Mosque, or Temple.

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/7342918?sommaire=7344042

Would they like several million immigrants from America? Take several million of our lunatic whites and do with them as they please.

bolverk · June 15

1 minute ago, UpperWestside said:

Would they like several million immigrants from America? Take several million of our lunatic whites and do with them as they please.

Unlikely. Because even people on the right over there are mostly secular and don't buy into the Evangelical Protestant bullshit that the majority of those lunatic whites would bring with them.

UpperWestside · June 15

Just now, bolverk said:

Unlikely. Because even people on the right over there are mostly secular and don't buy into the Evangelical Protestant bullshit that the majority of those lunatic whites would bring with them.

All the better. They can toss them into the English Channel for all I care.

WhatTheBuck · June 15

On 6/14/2024 at 7:27 PM, TexasHooch said:

Macron: You can have me or chaos.

France: We want Chaos

Macron: OK, cool, c'est la vie

Au revoir?

Bullneck · June 15

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

This seems to be right in line with where America is as well.

But they don't have Le College Electorielle, do they?

bolverk · June 15

7 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

All the better. They can toss them into the English Channel for all I care.

It seems shark attacks are more frequent in the Mediterranean. So, if they could get the lunatics off those lovely beaches, that could be a workable solution.

UpperWestside · June 15

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It seems shark attacks are more frequent in the Mediterranean. So, if they could get the lunatics off those lovely beaches, that could be a workable solution.

Get the cruise ships to paradise fillled up with a quick side trip to the old Roman lake.

WhatTheBuck · June 16

34 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

But they don't have Le College Electorielle, do they?

Sacre bleu!

Biff Tannen · June 16

Oh, I'm sorry. We only care about Americans in this country. We can't be bothered by the rest of the world, especially if it goes against the fear narrative pedaled by the right wing nonsense farm that creates propaganda purely to appeal to the dumbest among us. Literally. The dumbest. Take the dumbest idea you ever had in your life, triple it, run it though a cheese-rind wash of Fox News and the worst people you know and there you will get the answer. Get your logic and reason RIGHT OUT!

miguelito · June 16

9 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Sacre bleu!

Boy, those French! They have a different word for everything.

-Steve Martin

Rimbo · June 16

1 hour ago, UpperWestside said:

Would they like several million immigrants from America? Take several million of our lunatic whites and do with them as they please.

Even France doesn't deserve that.

I still think we should send em to Russia.

bolverk · June 30

Today, France goes to the polls in the first round of elections for parliamentary seats.

Turnout Is High in France’s Snap Elections
Participation was unusually strong as voters headed to the polls for a parliamentary election that could put the country on a new course. Here’s what to watch for.

Voters in France flocked to the polls on Sunday for the first round of snap legislative elections that President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly called this month, a gamble that has thrust the country into deep uncertainty over its future.

At 5 p.m. local time Sunday, the participation rate was 59.39 percent, the Interior Ministry said. That was far higher than in 2022, during the previous legislative elections, when the participation number at the same time was only 39.42 percent — reflecting intense interest in a vote that will determine the future of Mr. Macron’s second term.

Voters are choosing their 577 representatives in the National Assembly, the country’s lower and more prominent house of Parliament. A new majority of lawmakers opposed to Mr. Macron would force him to appoint a political opponent as prime minister, radically shifting France’s domestic policy and muddling its foreign policy.

If no clear majority emerges, the country could be headed for months of turmoil or political deadlock. Mr. Macron, who has ruled out resigning, cannot call new legislative elections for another year.

France’s nationalist, anti-immigrant National Rally party is widely expected to dominate the race. A broad alliance of left-wing parties could come in second. Mr. Macron’s centrist Renaissance party and its allies are expected to lose many seats.

Most polls will close at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday, or as late as 8 p.m. in larger cities. Nationwide voting projections provided by polling institutes, based on preliminary results, are expected right after 8 p.m. and are usually reliable. Official results, published by the Interior Ministry, will come in throughout the night.

Here is what to expect.

The voting happens in two rounds, and participation is already high.
A surging far right, a strong left-wing alliance and a shrinking center are on display.
First-round results could give an imperfect sense of where the vote is headed.

Spoiler

The voting happens in two rounds, and participation is already high.
France’s 577 electoral districts — one for each seat — cover the mainland, overseas departments and territories, and French citizens living abroad. In each district, the seat is awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes.

Any number of candidates can compete in the first round in each district, but there are specific thresholds to reach the second round, which will be held a week later, on July 7.

In most cases, the second round features the top two vote-getters, and whoever wins the most votes in that runoff wins the race. But there are exceptions.

A candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round wins outright, as long as those votes account for at least a quarter of registered voters in that district. And the runoffs in some districts could feature three or even four candidates if they are able to get a number of votes equal to at least 12.5 percent of registered voters.

Both scenarios have been rare in past years, but they are more likely if voter abstention is low, as is expected on Sunday. Most polling institutes expect the voter participation rate to exceed 60 percent in the first round, compared with 47.5 percent in 2022.

France’s legislative elections typically occur just weeks after the presidential race and usually favor whichever party has just won the presidency, making the elections less likely to draw in voters who feel like the outcome is preordained.

But the stakes are much higher this time.

A surging far right, a strong left-wing alliance and a shrinking center are on display.
The goal for each party and its allies is to get enough seats to form a working majority. If none of them do, France may face months of political turmoil or gridlock.

But if control of the National Assembly flips over to Mr. Macron’s opposition, he would be forced to appoint a prime minister and cabinet of a different political party, which would then control domestic policy. Presidents traditionally retain control over foreign policy and defense matters in such scenarios, but the Constitution does not always offer clear guidelines.

The National Rally has a comfortable lead in the latest polls, with the support of roughly 36 percent of voters. After decades on the fringes, the anti-immigrant, euroskeptic far right has never been closer to governing France, which would be a stunning development in a country that has been at the heart of the European project. A National Rally prime minister could clash with Mr. Macron over issues like France’s contribution to the European Union budget or support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.

The alliance of the Socialists, Greens, Communists and hard-left France Unbowed party has been polling in second place, with about 29 percent support, and it believes it has a chance to overcome the far right and form a government of its own. The alliance wants to overturn some of what Mr. Macron’s government did over the past seven years, like raise the legal age of retirement. It also wants to roll back corporate tax cuts and tax breaks for the rich to vastly increase social spending, and pass a big minimum wage hike.

For Mr. Macron’s centrist party and its allies, the contest is an uphill battle. The polls put them in third place, with roughly 20 percent, and widely predict them to lose many of the 250 seats they hold. Some of Mr. Macron’s political allies are running — the leaders of other centrist parties, some of his own ministers and even the prime minister — and defeats for any of them would be a blow.

First-round results could give an imperfect sense of where the vote is headed.
In 2022, Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition and the left were neck and neck in the first round of voting, ahead of all other parties, with roughly a quarter of the vote each. A week later, both were still ahead of the competition — but Mr. Macron’s coalition won nearly 250 seats, and the left secured fewer than 150.

In other words, while the first round of voting is an indicator of what the final results might be, it is not a perfect predictor.

One way to analyze the first round is to look at nationwide voting trends: What percentage of the vote did each party get around the country? This is a good way to see whether polling accurately predicted the general popularity of each party, and to see which forces have momentum for the final week of campaigning.

But nationwide voting percentages obscure the fact that France’s legislative elections are, in essence, 577 separate races, and most seats are decided only after the second round.

Each party’s prospects depend on how many runoffs their candidates are in — the more they reach, the stronger their party’s chances of coming ahead on July 7. What kind of matchups they will face will also become clearer.

And a lot happens between the two rounds. Voters whose favored candidates do not make it into the runoff will either shift to another, or just stay home.

Parties will issue local or nationwide voting recommendations to try to influence the outcome. In the past, parties across the spectrum often appealed to their members to vote strategically against the far right, but that tactic has frayed.

Candidates can decide to withdraw from a three- or four-way race if they worry about splitting the vote; several left-wing parties have already announced that they would encourage their candidates to do so.

There will also be a new week of campaigning — more than enough time for gaffes, missteps or twists that could change the course of any race.

bolverk · June 30

Turnout by the hour of the day over the last several parliamentary election cycles.

A huge uptick in voting above shows somewhat dampened support for the RN (Le Pen's National Rally). Predictions were that they'd top 36% in this first round.

Polls projected Ensemble (Macron's coalition) would only get 16%, but they're about 5 points ahead of that.

Political spectrum results:

Reconquête 0.7% (FAR FAR RIGHT)
RN 33.5% (FAR RIGHT)
Les Républicains 10.0% (RIGHT)
Centre 1.6% (CENTER RIGHT)
Ensemble 20.7% (CENTRIST)
Nouveau Front populaire 28.1% (CENTER LEFT)
Gauche 1.8% (LEFT)
Extrême gauche 1.2% (FAR LEFT)
Divers 2.1% (MINOR SPECIAL INTERESTS)

RIGHT 45.8
CENTER 20.7
LEFT 31.1

Headline: The RN dominates the first round.

I've seen various calls from leaders in the Nouveau Front populaire and Ensemble coalitions for their third-place candidates to drop out, so there will be more unity among those who oppose the RN in the second round.

Edited June 30 by bolverk

Hermanator · June 30

French MAGAs (MFGA?) just as stupid and obnoxious as American ones?

Thankfully I can say I've never seen one.

bolverk · June 30

34 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

French MAGAs (MFGA?) just as stupid and obnoxious as American ones?

Thankfully I can say I've never seen one.

Pretty much, except for the "we're going to shove Jesus down your throat" part. Otherwise, the same dynamics and attitudes tearing us apart are taking place over there. Racism/xenophobia is driving their right-wing short bus.

Js1 · June 30

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Pretty much, except for the "we're going to shove Jesus down your throat" part. Otherwise, the same dynamics and attitudes tearing us apart are taking place over there. Racism/xenophobia is driving their right-wing short bus.

Yep, it’s the Republican Party minus the christo flavor of the fascism

Sawbonz · June 30

1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

French MAGAs (MFGA?) just as stupid and obnoxious as American ones?

Thankfully I can say I've never seen one.

They’re starting out French so I would say definitely wrt the obnoxious part

Horn Under a Bad Sign · July 1

NSFW. I mean REALLY, REALLY NSFW. GOT THAT? Topless French women protest facism near the Eifel tower.

I sure hope they don't try this in America if Trump wins in November. 😀

Spoiler

WhatTheBuck · July 1

13 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

I sure hope they don't try this in America if Trump wins in November. 😀

Spoiler

bolverk · July 7

France is going to the second round of voting at the polls today. Turnout is high. In the last poll that I saw, the Far Right was projected to fall just short of a majority. Finger crossed.

Meanwhile, France has been subject to a Russian disinfo campaign for the last year.

Russian-linked cybercampaigns put a bull’s-eye on France. Their focus? The Olympics and elections

PARIS (AP) — Photos of blood-red hands on a Holocaust memorial. Caskets at the Eiffel Tower. A fake French military recruitment drive calling for soldiers in Ukraine, and major French news sites improbably registered in an obscure Pacific territory, population 15,000.

All are part of disinformation campaigns orchestrated out of Russia and targeting France, according to French officials and cybersecurity experts in Europe and the United States. France’s legislative elections and the Paris Olympics sent them into overdrive.

More than a dozen reports issued in the past year point to an intensifying effort from Russia to undermine France, particularly the upcoming Games, and President Emmanuel Macron, who is one of Ukraine’s most vocal supporters in Europe.

This story, supported by the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is part of an Associated Press series covering threats to democracy in Europe.

The Russian campaigns sowing anti-French disinformation began online in early summer 2023, but first became tangible in October, when more than 1,000 bots linked to Russia relayed photos of graffitied Stars of David in Paris and its suburbs.

A French intelligence report said the Russian intelligence agency FSB ordered the tagging, as well as subsequent vandalism of a memorial to those who helped rescue Jews from the Holocaust.

Photos from each event were amplified on social media by fake accounts linked to the Russian disinformation site RRN, according to cybersecurity experts. Russia denies any such campaigns. The French intelligence report says RRN is part of a larger operation orchestrated by Sergei Kiriyenko, a ranking Kremlin official.

“You have to see this as an ecosystem,” said a French military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to reveal information about the Russian effort. “It’s a hybrid strategy.”

The tags and the vandalism had no direct link to Russia’s war in Ukraine, but they provoked a strong reaction from the French political class, with denunciations in the legislature and public debate. Antisemitic attacks are on the rise in France, and the war in Gaza has proven divisive.

The Stars of David could be interpreted either as support for Israel or as opposition. The effect was to sow division and unease. French Jews in particular have found themselves unwittingly thrust into the political fray despite, at just 500,000 people, making up a small proportion of the French population.

In March, just after Macron discussed the possibility of mobilizing the French military in Ukraine, a fake recruitment drive went up for the French army in Ukraine, spawning a series of posts in Russian- and French-language Telegram channels that got picked up in Russian and Belarusian media, according to a separate French government report seen by The Associated Press. On June 1, caskets appeared outside the Eiffel Tower, bearing the inscription “French soldiers in Ukraine.”

The larger disinformation efforts show little traction in France, but the Russian audience may have been the real target, officials said, by showing that Russia’s war in Ukraine is, as Putin has said, really a war with the West.

Among the broader goals, the French military official said, was a long-term and steady effort to sow social discord, erode faith in the media and democratic governments, undermine NATO, and sap Western support for Ukraine. Denigrating the Olympics, from which most Russian athletes are banned, is a bonus, according to French officials monitoring the increasingly strident posts warning of imminent unrest ahead of the Games.

On June 9, the French far-right National Rally trounced Macron’s party in elections for the European Parliament. The party has historically been close to Russia: One of its leading figures, Marine Le Pen, cultivated ties to Putin for many years and supported Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. And its leading contender for prime minister, Jordan Bardella, has said he opposes sending long-range weapons to Kyiv.

In more than 4,400 posts gathered since mid-November by antibot4navalny, a collective that analyzes Russian bot behavior, those targeting audiences in France and Germany predominated. The number of weekly posts ranged from 100 to 200 except for the week of May 5, when it dropped near zero, the data showed. That week, as it happens, was a holiday in Russia.

Many of the posts redirect either to RRN or to sites that appear identical to major French media, but with the domain — and content — changed. At least two of the more recent mirrored sites are registered in Wallis and Futuna, a French Pacific territory 10 time zones from Paris. A click on the top of the fake page redirects back to the real news sites themselves to give the impression of authenticity. Other posts redirect to original sites controlled by the campaign itself, dubbed Doppelganger.

The redirects shifted focus for the European elections and continued after Macron called the surprise legislative elections with just three weeks to spare. Three-quarters of posts from the week ahead of the June 30 first-round legislative vote that were directed toward a French audience focused on either criticizing Macron or boosting the National Rally, antibot4navalny found in data shared with The Associated Press.

One post on a fake site purported to be from Le Point, a current affairs magazine, and the French news agency AFP, criticizing Macron.

“Our leaders have no idea how ordinary French people live but are ready to destroy France in the name of aid for Ukraine,” read the headline on June 25.

Another site falsely claimed to be from Macron’s party, offering to pay 100 euros for a vote for him — and linking back to the party’s true website. And still another inadvertently left a generative artificial intelligence prompt calling for the re-write of an article “taking a conservative stance against the liberal policies of the Macron administration,” according to findings last week from Insikt Group, the threat research division of the cybersecurity consultancy Recorded Future.

“They’re scraping automatically, sending the text to the AI and asking the AI to introduce bias or slants into the article and rewrite it,” said Clément Briens, an analyst for Recorded Future.

Briens said metrics tools embedded within the site are likely intended to prove that the campaigns were money well-spent for “whoever is doing the payouts for these operations.”

The French government cybersecurity watchdog, Viginum, has published multiple reports since June 2023 singling out Russian efforts to sow divisions in France and elsewhere. That was around the time that pro-Kremlin Telegram feeds started promoting “Olympics has Fallen” — a full-length fake Netflix film featuring an AI-generated voice resembling Tom Cruise that criticized the International Olympic Committee, according to the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center.

Microsoft said this campaign, which it dubbed Storm-1679, is fanning fears of violence at the Games and last fall disseminated digitally generated photos referring, among other things, to the attacks on Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics.

The latest effort, which started just after the first round of the elections on June 30, merges fears of violence related to both the Olympics and the risk of protests after the decisive second round, antibot4navalny found. Viginum released a new report Tuesday detailing the risks ahead for the Games — not for violence but for disinformation.

“Digital information manipulation campaigns have become a veritable instrument of destabilization of democracies,” Viginum said. “This global event will give untold informational exposure to malevolant foreign actors.” The word Russia appears nowhere.

Baptiste Robert, a French cybersecurity expert who ran unsuccessfully as an unaffiliated centrist in the legislative elections, called on his government — and especially lawmakers — to prepare for the digital threats to come.

“This is a global policy of Russia: They really want to push people into the extremes,” he said before the first-round vote. “It’s working perfectly right now.”

Js1 · July 7

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

France is going to the second round of voting at the polls today. Turnout is high. In the last poll that I saw, the Far Right was projected to fall just short of a majority. Finger crossed.

The last one I saw was that they'd fall well short

289 seats needed for a majority
RN 170-210
NFP 165-195
Ensemble 130-160

But we will see what happens. Polls close 1pm central time

bolverk · July 7

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The last one I saw was that they'd fall well short

289 seats needed for a majority
RN 170-210
NFP 165-195
Ensemble 130-160

But we will see what happens. Polls close 1pm central time

The one I saw was from Tuesday or Wednesday, but I can't remember where I saw it. Anyway, I hope the one you cite is closer to the outcome than the one I saw.

Js1 · July 7

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The one I saw was from Tuesday or Wednesday, but I can't remember where I saw it. Anyway, I hope the one you cite is closer to the outcome than the one I saw.

They are no different than US polls. They are projections at the moment they were taken. The UK ones were pretty spot on

WhatTheBuck · July 7

31 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Meanwhile, France has been subject to a Russian disinfo campaign for the last year.

bolverk · July 7

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They are no different than US polls. They are projections at the moment they were taken. The UK ones were pretty spot on

Here's one from Friday. No clear winner in this scenario, especially since Macron's Ensemble and the NFP aren't playing well together.

Turnout Is High as France’s Snap Election Enters Its Final Hours
The vote will determine the composition of France’s National Assembly, and the future of President Emmanuel Macron’s second term.

Voters in France went to the polls in droves on Sunday in the final round of snap legislative elections. The results could force President Emmanuel Macron to govern alongside far-right opponents or usher in chronic political instability weeks before the Paris Summer Olympics.

Turnout at 5 p.m. local time was the highest in over two decades, at about 59.71 percent, the Interior Ministry said. That was much higher than during the previous legislative elections in 2022, when the participation rate at the same time was less than 38.11 percent, reflecting persistent interest in a vote that will determine the future of Mr. Macron’s second term.

Mr. Macron called the elections for the 577-seat National Assembly, France’s lower and more prominent house of Parliament, last month in a risky gamble that appeared to have largely backfired after the first round of voting last week.

Most polls close at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday, or as late as 8 p.m. in larger cities. Nationwide seat projections by polling institutes, based on preliminary results, are expected just after 8 p.m. Official results will come in throughout the night.

Here is what to watch for.

Will the far right win enough seats for an absolute majority?
That will be the key question.

The first round of voting was dominated by the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally party. An alliance of left-wing parties called the New Popular Front came in a strong second, while Mr. Macron’s party and its allies came in third.

Seventy-six seats were won outright — roughly half by the National Rally. But the rest went to runoffs.

Over 300 districts were three-way races until over 200 candidates from left-wing parties and Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition pulled out to avoid splitting the vote and try to prevent the far right from winning.

That will make it harder, though not impossible, for the National Rally and its allies to reach an absolute majority.

Most French pollsters expect the party and its allies to win 175 to 240 seats — short of an absolute majority of 289 seats. But if the National Rally and its allies secure an absolute majority, they will almost certainly be able to form a government — and Mr. Macron, who says he will remain in office, will have to work with them.

How will the country’s leadership work?
A contentious outcome with Mr. Macron as president and the National Rally leader, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister is possible, under what France calls a cohabitation.

France’s prime minister and cabinet are accountable to the lower house, and they determine the country’s policies. But they are appointed by the president, who has extensive executive powers and is directly elected by the public.

Usually, the president and prime minister are politically aligned. (Every five years, France holds presidential and legislative elections within weeks of each other, making it likely that voters will support the same party twice.) But when the presidency and the National Assembly are at odds, the president has little choice but to appoint a prime minister from an opposing party — or someone lawmakers won’t topple with a no-confidence vote.

Cohabitation has happened before, between mainstream left-wing and conservative leaders, from 1986 to 1988, 1993 to 1995, and 1997 to 2002. But a cohabitation between Mr. Macron, a pro-European centrist, and Mr. Bardella, a Euroskeptic nationalist, would be unprecedented.

What if no one gets an absolute majority?
Polls suggest that a likely scenario is a lower house roughly divided into three blocs with conflicting agendas and, in some cases, deep animosity toward one another — the National Rally, the New Popular Front, and a reduced centrist alliance including Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party.

As it stands, no bloc appears able to find enough partners to form a majority, leaving Mr. Macron with limited options.

“French political culture is not conducive to compromise,” said Samy Benzina, a public law professor at the University of Poitiers, noting that France’s institutions are designed to produce “clear majorities that can govern on their own.”

“It would be the first time in the Fifth Republic that a government could not be assembled for lack of a solid majority,” he said.

Some analysts and politicians have suggested that a broad cross-party coalition could stretch from the Greens to more moderate conservatives. But France is not accustomed to building coalitions, and several political leaders have ruled it out.

Another possibility is a caretaker government that handles day-to-day business until there is a political breakthrough. But this, too, would be a departure from French tradition.

If none of those solutions work, the country could be headed for months of political deadlock.

Will the vote end in violence?
The campaign, one of the shortest in France’s modern history, was clouded by a tense atmosphere, racist incidents and acts of violence.

One television news program filmed a couple who support the National Rally hurling invectives at a Black neighbor, telling her to “go to the doghouse.” A television host of North African descent revealed a racist letter he had received at his home. A bakery in Avignon was burned and covered in homophobic and racist tags.

Gérald Darmanin, France’s interior minister, said on Friday that over 50 people — candidates, their substitutes, or supporters — had been “physically assaulted” during the campaign.

There are fears that postelection protests will turn violent. The authorities have deployed about 30,000 security forces around the country, including about 5,000 in the Paris region, to deal with potential unrest.

Gil Bang · July 7

'We're not far-right.' 'Are you kidding me?' Amanpour challenges Marine Le Pen in exclusive interview

Amanpour

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/world/video/france-elections-marine-le-pen-amanpour-trump-politics?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

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Can someone explain this France thing to me like I’m 5?

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