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Who's going to be god-awful ATS in 2018 CFB?

TornACL

By TornACL
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TornACL

TornACL 7698

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Last year I enjoyed a pretty good run by switching things up and just finding teams to bet against every week. The absolute dregs of college football, teams that usually didn't even come close to covering point spreads.

East Carolina was a shining example of this, especially early in the season.  UTEP and I think UCONN were other "winners" for me last year.

I know Oregon State is supposed to be dreadful, but I am expecting that most of the value is going to be sucked out of them since everyone is expecting them to be dogshit. Anyone else on your radar?

Obviously I shouldn't have to say this, but for any noobs on here, it had to be more than just a bad team. It has to be a team that's much worse than anybody expected, or a team that is just so dysfunctional and terrible that even Vegas doesn't have the right read on the depths of their suckitude.  

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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21 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

Kansas as a general rule, was a great team to ride the other side against.... of course, they easily fucking covered against UT last year.... so frustrating.

They have a season win total of 3, so they’re STILL overvalued...but they could legit open the season with a loss to Nicholls State and make the books just crank the spreads up. They’re going to be historically bad this year, which sounds stupid under a coach that has 1 FBS win (sorry dudes) and is entering year 4.

 

 

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11756

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3 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

They have a season win total of 3, so they’re STILL overvalued...

so true story, ive got a coworker who is a Jayhawk homer,  last year on the over/under win total, I gave him a half game, and took the under on 2.5 ona  $100 bet, he bit like a bass on a lure.

so, he payed out promptly in Nov, and last Fri we met for drinks and bewbs at Twin Peaks, he "guilted" me into taking the same bet again this year because Kansas is better.  So Im taking the under of 2.5 games again for a hunsky.

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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3 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

so true story, ive got a coworker who is a Jayhawk homer,  last year on the over/under win total, I gave him a half game, and took the under on 2.5 ona  $100 bet, he bit like a bass on a lure.

so, he payed out promptly in Nov, and last Fri we met for drinks and bewbs at Twin Peaks, he "guilted" me into taking the same bet again this year because Kansas is better.  So Im taking the under of 2.5 games again for a hunsky.

You can spend that already, there just isn’t a scenario that they get past 2 wins...Vegas just can’t make the number that low. It’s a market inefficiency, the opposite of, say not being able to make Patriots win totals high enough.

I hold 3 limit bet tickets on the under (3, 3, 2.5) and don’t expect it to even be a sweat.

 

 

 

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TornACL

TornACL 7698

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Posted (edited)

Saw an interesting article today on actionnetwork.com that said 137 teams have won 3 or fewer ATS in a season 2005-2016.

81 of those teams went on to have a .500 or better record ATS the next season.

When you narrow it down to the power conferences, 45 of 67 teams went .500 or better ATS the next season.


Kansas was 4-8 last year ATS, but with an average margin of -24.8.

Edited by TornACL
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Horseshoe Lounge

Horseshoe Lounge 2

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LAst four years all teams ATS: (Sorry for the big wall of text)

 

Team    ATS Record    Cover %    MOV    ATS +/-
Connecticut    14-34-1    29.2%    -10.9    -4.0
Hawaii    16-33-2    32.6%    -11.0    -4.6
E Carolina    16-32-1    33.3%    -4.1    -3.1
S Alabama    17-32-1    34.7%    -6.0    -2.7
Arizona    19-33-0    36.5%    0.6    -2.0
UCLA    19-32-0    37.2%    1.4    -3.7
Kansas    18-30-0    37.5%    -22.0    -2.6
Oregon St    18-30-0    37.5%    -12.6    -5.4
Kent State    18-29-0    38.3%    -14.0    -4.7
Charlotte    13-20-2    39.4%    -15.6    -5.3
Utah State    21-31-0    40.4%    2.1    -0.9
TX-San Ant    19-28-1    40.4%    -3.2    -1.8
Cincinnati    20-29-1    40.8%    -2.0    -4.2
Illinois    20-29-0    40.8%    -9.2    -2.2
Indiana    20-28-2    41.7%    -2.2    -1.6
Old Dominion    20-28-1    41.7%    -4.6    -2.2
Ball State    20-28-0    41.7%    -9.5    -4.8
Coastal Car    5-7-0    41.7%    -10.3    -2.6
Kentucky    21-29-0    42.0%    -2.2    -1.4
Texas A&M    22-30-0    42.3%    6.3    -1.4
Bowling Grn    22-29-1    43.1%    -3.4    -1.6
San Jose St    21-27-1    43.8%    -11.4    -4.6
Pittsburgh    21-27-3    43.8%    2.8    +0.3
Maryland    22-28-0    44.0%    -6.9    -3.6
Auburn    23-29-1    44.2%    10.0    -0.6
W Virginia    23-29-0    44.2%    6.4    +1.4
W Kentucky    24-30-0    44.4%    10.9    +2.6
Baylor    22-27-1    44.9%    9.5    -2.1
USC    24-29-1    45.3%    8.8    +0.1
Texas State    22-26-0    45.8%    -11.2    -3.2
Michigan    23-27-1    46.0%    11.8    0.0
Florida St    23-27-2    46.0%    9.7    -1.9
New Mexico    23-27-0    46.0%    -2.9    +0.1
North Texas    23-27-1    46.0%    -8.6    -1.5
TX El Paso    22-25-2    46.8%    -11.6    -1.7
LA Monroe    22-25-2    46.8%    -11.2    -1.6
S Methodist    23-26-0    46.9%    -13.6    -3.4
Florida    23-26-1    46.9%    4.3    -0.9
UNLV    23-26-0    46.9%    -7.6    -2.0
Tennessee    24-27-0    47.1%    4.8    -0.9
Missouri    24-27-0    47.1%    2.7    0.0
Louisville    24-27-1    47.1%    10.9    -1.6
Akron    24-27-0    47.1%    -2.5    -1.6
LA Lafayette    23-25-2    47.9%    -3.7    -2.9
Mississippi    23-25-2    47.9%    7.2    -1.4
N Mex State    23-25-1    47.9%    -11.1    -0.4
App State    24-26-1    48.0%    12.7    +3.8
Oregon    25-27-1    48.1%    7.9    -3.1
Syracuse    23-24-1    48.9%    -7.2    -1.0
Colorado    24-25-2    49.0%    -1.0    -0.8
Army    24-25-1    49.0%    1.6    +1.4
Fla Atlantic    24-25-1    49.0%    -2.3    +0.9
Rutgers    24-25-0    49.0%    -10.7    -3.6
Iowa    25-26-2    49.0%    7.0    +2.5
Arizona St    25-26-0    49.0%    0.8    -1.1
VA Tech    26-27-0    49.1%    8.6    +1.1
Boise State    27-27-0    50.0%    12.9    -0.1
N Carolina    26-26-0    50.0%    3.6    +0.7
Alabama    29-29-0    50.0%    22.4    +2.7
Miami (FL)    26-26-0    50.0%    7.1    -0.2
Tulane    23-23-2    50.0%    -8.6    -1.5
Vanderbilt    24-24-1    50.0%    -7.3    -2.4
BYU    26-26-0    50.0%    5.7    -0.2
Kansas St    26-26-0    50.0%    7.0    +1.9
Middle Tenn    25-25-1    50.0%    3.1    -1.8
Troy    25-25-0    50.0%    2.9    +0.7
TX Christian    27-26-0    50.9%    15.0    +2.4
Notre Dame    26-25-0    51.0%    7.5    -0.6
N Illinois    26-25-2    51.0%    4.2    -0.3
Michigan St    26-25-1    51.0%    7.8    +0.8
GA Southern    25-24-0    51.0%    4.5    +1.2
Nevada    25-24-1    51.0%    -1.9    +1.1
S Carolina    25-24-2    51.0%    -1.3    -0.5
Buffalo    24-23-0    51.1%    -3.2    0.0
Minnesota    24-23-4    51.1%    2.1    +1.2
Rice    24-23-2    51.1%    -10.0    -3.4
Central Mich    27-25-0    51.9%    0.6    -0.6
Oklahoma St    27-25-0    51.9%    8.3    +1.0
Central FL    26-24-1    52.0%    3.6    +0.1
U Mass    25-23-0    52.1%    -7.1    +1.1
Nebraska    25-23-3    52.1%    2.3    -2.6
Georgia State    25-23-1    52.1%    -8.1    -0.4
Ohio State    29-26-0    52.7%    22.4    +4.0
Houston    27-24-1    52.9%    11.7    +1.2
Wyoming    27-24-0    52.9%    -4.2    +1.4
S Mississippi    27-24-1    52.9%    2.1    +0.1
Wash State    27-24-0    52.9%    3.5    +0.5
Memphis    26-23-3    53.1%    13.2    +4.9
Tulsa    26-23-1    53.1%    -2.9    +1.4
California    26-23-0    53.1%    0.0    +1.8
Virginia    25-22-2    53.2%    -5.4    -1.3
Florida Intl    25-22-2    53.2%    -4.9    +0.9
Clemson    30-26-1    53.6%    18.1    +3.6
Washington    29-25-0    53.7%    15.4    +4.7
Air Force    28-24-0    53.8%    6.1    +1.3
Miss State    28-24-0    53.8%    9.0    +1.5
Arkansas    27-23-1    54.0%    3.5    +0.2
Texas    27-23-0    54.0%    0.7    -1.0
Miami (OH)    26-22-1    54.2%    -5.9    -0.3
Purdue    26-22-1    54.2%    -6.8    +1.0
Oklahoma    29-24-0    54.7%    16.3    +0.6
Colorado St    28-23-1    54.9%    5.4    +0.4
NC State    28-23-1    54.9%    5.4    +0.9
LSU    27-22-1    55.1%    9.9    -0.2
Wisconsin    30-24-1    55.6%    14.9    +2.4
Toledo    28-22-2    56.0%    10.6    +1.6
Penn State    28-22-3    56.0%    10.1    +3.0
Boston Col    27-21-3    56.2%    1.3    +1.9
E Michigan    27-21-1    56.2%    -9.8    -0.3
Arkansas St    29-22-0    56.9%    8.4    +3.1
San Diego St    29-22-3    56.9%    11.6    +3.0
Texas Tech    28-21-1    57.1%    -1.6    -1.6
Wake Forest    28-21-1    57.1%    -3.1    +2.2
Georgia    31-23-0    57.4%    12.6    +1.0
GA Tech    27-20-2    57.5%    5.6    +3.0
Navy    29-21-3    58.0%    7.6    +3.8
Fresno St    29-21-1    58.0%    -5.8    -0.3
Stanford    31-22-1    58.5%    10.5    +2.3
Northwestern    30-21-0    58.8%    3.0    +2.0
Marshall    30-21-1    58.8%    9.7    +1.5
S Florida    29-20-1    59.2%    7.1    +1.8
Duke    29-20-2    59.2%    4.7    +2.6
Iowa State    28-19-2    59.6%    -4.4    +2.6
Idaho    27-18-3    60.0%    -7.1    +1.0
Ohio    31-20-1    60.8%    4.2    +1.8
Utah    31-20-1    60.8%    6.8    +2.3
LA Tech    33-21-0    61.1%    9.9    +3.7
UAB    15-9-1    62.5%    2.7    +4.3
W Michigan    33-19-0    63.5%    11.1    +5.2
Temple    34-19-0    64.1%    7.3    +4.5
 

 
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bularry1

bularry1 23

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On 7/26/2018 at 9:59 AM, TornACL said:

Last year I enjoyed a pretty good run by switching things up and just finding teams to bet against every week. The absolute dregs of college football, teams that usually didn't even come close to covering point spreads.

East Carolina was a shining example of this, especially early in the season.  UTEP and I think UCONN were other "winners" for me last year.

I know Oregon State is supposed to be dreadful, but I am expecting that most of the value is going to be sucked out of them since everyone is expecting them to be dogshit. Anyone else on your radar?

Obviously I shouldn't have to say this, but for any noobs on here, it had to be more than just a bad team. It has to be a team that's much worse than anybody expected, or a team that is just so dysfunctional and terrible that even Vegas doesn't have the right read on the depths of their suckitude.  

Rice was awful last year.  I think they might be a candidate to be worse this year.  Talent isn't really improved and new and inexperienced coaches could lead to a poor first 4 or 5 games.  worth keeping an eye on.

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
UTEX90

UTEX90 589

Posted
Posted

Northwestern St.

On 7/26/2018 at 9:59 AM, TornACL said:

 It has to be a team that's much worse than anybody expected, or a team that is just so dysfunctional and terrible that even Vegas doesn't have the right read on the depths of their suckitude.  

Northwestern St.

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Blotto

Blotto 23486

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Posted (edited)
On 8/8/2018 at 8:53 AM, Wally Pryor said:

Going to miss Urban, assuming he's gone.  His ATS with a week+ to prep is now at an unbelievable 42-14 over his career.  I latched onto this 4 seasons ago and it's paid off nicely.

He's only coached ~210 games. It's surprising that 25%+ of those have been with more than a weeks prep.

EDIT- no its not... I'm a dumbass.

Edited by Blotto
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